Reflect your thoughts on 22 Bahman in Iran

[masoudA]

I am amazed at some of your comments -
some of you really do need a reality check. Baba we are talking about making world history - we are talking about the overthrow of a ruthless totalitarian regime which is armed and trained to only fight it's own citizens. Some of you are talking as if taking Iran back is like throwing a garden party. Even if we had 10 million in the streets today - IR would still be in place today. The reality is that IR did succeed in scaring many out of Tehran. They did succeed in cutting off Green telecommunications........but like RDA, I consider today a victory as well. You and I both knew Green was alive and growing - but the world did not. All today meant to the world was that the Green movement is alive and well in Iran - beyond all government attempts to suffocate it.

As I said in the other thread - life is too short not to stand for anything worthwhile - and quiet frankly, you will not find a more worthy cause to stand up for. This movement will win with or without you and I, if not this generation - the next will certainly succeed. Stop acting as little children - and do me a favor. If you decide to quit - for the sake of your mental well being (and I understand the stress involved) - just do it, and don't advertise it. It will only help IR.

 

[bardia]

I live in hot and sexy LA :cigar:
You should edit your post and mention that the quote is from someone in Iran, that way there won't be any misunderstanding! Further I hope whoever said that in Iran is practicising what he is preaching to others.

There is no need for editing my post as I clearly mentinoed the Green Movement .

Bwt, as you said it yourself do not tell others what to do.:--wink:

 

[Bache Tehroon]

I am amazed at some of your comments -
some of you really do need a reality check. Baba we are talking about making world history - we are talking about the overthrow of a ruthless totalitarian regime which is armed and trained to only fight it's own citizens. Some of you are talking as if taking Iran back is like throwing a garden party. Even if we had 10 million in the streets today - IR would still be in place today. The reality is that IR did succeed in scaring many out of Tehran. They did succeed in cutting off Green telecommunications........but like RDA, I consider today a victory as well. You and I both knew Green was alive and growing - but the world did not. All today meant to the world was that the Green movement is alive and well in Iran - beyond all government attempts to soffocate it.

If we had 10 million in streets IR would still be in place, but a different place. It would be in a toilet ready to be flushed in the near future.

No one expected the regime to collapse just because people show up on streets. The expectation was to overwhelm the government forces so they would simply stand and watch and maybe even have second thoughts about their stance due to the sheer number of the crowds.

WE FAILED even by our own GREEN standards.

 

[DireStraits]

say no more.

all the shitty little pieces have fallen into place.

He is someone like this
[video=youtube;PEQdoqadrYs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEQdoqadrYs[/video]

 

[Azhidahak]

I think we are mostly disappointed because our expectations were set so high for no reason. Other wise this was another victory for greens.

I think Eshghi mentioned this rightfully, if we are gonna change the regime there will NOT be any date and time for it. It will happen when the time is right. There is No way we can say on March 21st we will change the regime, unless you are Hakha.

Zirak jan, I agree with your post. But what is a "Hakha" ??

 

[Farbod (ADC)]

Bottom line: This is what happens without a true leader and basic organization. A lot of you said that it wasnt needed or that Mousavi and the other reformist clown are enough. That the people's courage and desire would be strong enough. Im sorry, but today was evidence of the contrary. Without leadership a movement is just a mob, and without a strong point a spear is just a stick...

 

[General Parsaian]

general... the protests will almost certainly die out...but the people who want more social/cultural/political rights are not going away ..... there is a significant section of our society who want more rights .... some want more.... things will never be the same again in iran in the future... i bet the iri high command are thinking of how to "safely" open up so events like the recent demos/protests do not happen again...

one other point.... u said in a different thread that mousavi has lost his support...i disagree.... if there was a truly "FREE" election tomorrow... i fully expect mousavi to increase his vote from last time ... but ahmadinejad would maybe just win by a very narrow majority... ahmadinejad's prmises have proved to be empty .... the economy is still bad ..worst than ever ...corruption has not been tackled... corrupt people have not been brought to court ... jobs have not been created in significant numbers.... cost of living is sky high.... so how has ahmadinejad succeeded in his promises... to get more votes? ahmadinejad has been a complete failure by his own standards .... that's the reality .... but he talks a good/simple talk (for the poor /religious)

جناب رضا
من با شما مخالفم
شما می فرمایید اگرفردا یک انتخابات ازاد برقرار شود موسوی بیش از قبل رای خواهد اورد
من در تریدی گفتم که از ان چهارده ملیون نزدیک به نیمی از انها فقط برای اینکه ایشان سید و موسوی هستند و شال سبز را علم کرده بودند رای دادند
این عده برای سادات احترام خاصی قائل هستند
چیزی هم در مورد امار و ارقام نمی فهمند
فقط می دانند که سید نواده حضرت علی ع است می ایند و رای می دهند
به همین سادگی
االان اگر دوباره رای گیری شود این عده به او رای نمی دهند
این عده از خامنه ای پیروی می کنند
در مورد جنگ مسلحانه هم به نظر من یک حرکت کاملا اشتباه است
خمینی خوب می دانست که اگر بر علیه شاه جنگ مسلحانه اعلام کند فقط عده محدودی می توانند بر علیه شاه به مبارزه بپردازند و مردم کنار می کشند
به همین خاطر به قول خودش مشت در برابر اسلحه را شعار قرار داد الان هم اگر جنبش یا گروهی جنگ مسلحانه اعلام کنند
سرنوشت انها بهتر از مجاهدین و چریک های فدائی و کموله نخواهد بود


متشکرم

 

[masoudA]

BT jaan
Did I hope for better? Indeed I did. Just like you, I was hoping for millions to make a showing like never before. But - look at how BBC of all news agencies reported today: IR gathered thousands of government supporters, bused-in reporters to cover AN speeach - who claimed IR is now enriching Uranium to 20%.....- Reporters were not allowed to talk to ordinary people.....meanwhile BB also showed clips of anti IR protests outside Azadi Square calling for Referrandum and death to the dictator........ and they did mention several demonstrations were held in several other cities including Shiraz, Esfahan, Yazd, Mashad,........By all international standards - this is anti IR news report - a victory for Green at least on the international arena.

At the same time - if you go by the SOB's in PBR or with the report of Mr. Reza Arazi of MSNBC - it was a total defeat for the Green!! Agha Reza Arazi quotes in his report from Tehran, an "Un-named" green protestor as having said that. According to this un-named Green protestors, the Green could not bring any more than 300 people out!!! Go to the front page of msn - the report is still out there!! My point is at least on the international war-front - it is not always what happened, but how it was reported. And believe me with very few exceptions (and I expect WSJ to be also one of them) the reports are all in our favor.

 

[mowj]

Maybe I should have posted my three 2 cents here....

رژيم نظامي-پليسی غارتگر فاشيست مذهبی بعد از هشت ماه زدن، گرفتن، زندان، شکنجه، تجاوز، و دار و کشتار چند ماه برنامه ريزی کرده بود تا امروز صورت مسئله را حفظ کند و باز هم موفق نشد. کشوری که 47 ميليون از هفتاد ميليونش زيرخط فقرند و يکی دو درصدی از انها دست بدامان دولت غارتگر باز هم مجبور به انواع تهديد و تشويق عده ای شد تا به خيال خود ميدان آزادی را پر کند و دژخيمانش را بسراغ اکثريت بفرستد تا بتواند فقط صورت مسئله را حفظ کند.
امروز هم پيروز ميدان مبارزه مردم قهرمانی بودند که در نبود تلفن و اينترنت و هيچ نوع وسيله ای برای سامانده ای بلکه هرچه بود فقط باتوم و گاز اشک آور و تجربه هشت ماه شکنجه های اعمال شده همرزمان باز هم سرافراز ميدان بودند تا ميدان بعدي. امروز به يمن اين فداکاری ها پرچم جنبش سبز در اقساء نقاط ايران برافراشته بود
پس تظاهرات امروز در خلال چنين سناريوئی جای تبريک گفتن دارد.
درود وتبريک به مردم قهرمان ايران که با تمام مکر و حيله وتهديدات رژيم فاشيست و غارتگر ولايت وقيح و سپاهيان پاسدار جنا يت و شناعت روز 22 بهمن را هم از آن خود و روز نجات ايران ثبت کرد.
روز آزادی و نجات کشور عزيزمان ايران و مردم قهرمانش بسيار نزديک است.​

==============================================================

A week after 25 Khordad, some people complained about lack of crowd and I said " We can not expect people to come out despite baton, tear gas, and beating."
I still believe the same. We can not expect millions of people with their families show up every time to be beaten up, arrested, raped, and even hanged. Not showing up is a natural reaction, an inteligent reaction and that is exactly why regim used unprecedented violence even by Israel standard or Red Khamer of Cambolia.

What has not changed is an incompetent plundering violent regim that has brought a country economically to her knees and they can not change that.
47 millions under pverty line and they can not change that,
25%-30% unemployment and they can not change that.
Factories and state employees have not been paid for months and some cases years and they can not change that.
So, the green movement participants were heroic even today despite months of preparation of regim for this day with having all the upper hand from organized thugs to criminal act without pay back and the bottom line is that the Green movement is growing by day and if not today it may be tomorrow, if not tomorrow it may be the day after that this flood of people will wash away the filth that has covered our beloved country, a military-police state in the name of government.
The underlieing problems that initiated the movement not past summer but past 31 years are still there, and this is just the begining with some superficial ups and downs but every day is a growing day for this movement.
The incompetency of this regim despite their violent reaction is what drives people to react.
So tighten the seat belt and always be prepared for a long ride. The movement is just geared to a higher degree.
(the slips by Karubi, the rumor of Khatami's letter, and Mousavi's after Ashura declaration might have disappointed some that need to be carefull looked at if any merit to it at all.

==============================================================


I don't think there is anyone who doubts that about 90%+ of people are absolutely disgusted by this regim and his governing which is nothing but an armed Mafia organization with a few hundred thousands well paid and well fed thugs to do their dirty work on the streets.
If not, they did not have to carry out a Coup D'etat, beating, raping, torturing to death and hang innocent people to preserve it.
These are all sings of weaknesses.
As far as todays is concerned I like to contribute some of it to the positions Khatami and Karubi took in regard to Vali Vaghih, people did not like even the rumors of behind the doors talks, they did not like the fact that Karubi and Khatami amaturishly trying to bring Vali vaghih into open end up playing in the hands of regim portray them as wheeling and dealing behind the doors, specially Karubi and later rumor of Khatami's letter. Some people might have felt being sold out and were not ready to risk more beating and potential life thretening arrests.
On the other hand Vali Vaghih had a few months of 24/7 multimedia at his disposal to threaten and use of vicious propaganda to face the potential of a green movement that did not materialised in one place but it did all over.
Today, after 8 months every large and small town, every minority and ethnicity are informed and supportive of Green movement, what we lacked in the begining are rapidly becomesing the reality, we are growing and that translated into strength.
Our fight is not that under the current circumstance, that is extrem violence for one side , and carnival atmosphere for the other side who bring s more people on the streets. We need to start pointing out and familirise more and more people specially labour/nurses/teachers/... with massive plunder of national treasury by Vali Vaghih and his military religious fascit aparatus resulting in massive poverty and economic misery that are getting worse by day.
All the objective criteria of a revolution is there, all the subjective criteria for a revolution is there, and the number one push for a revolution, that is Vali vaghih and his thugs are laso there.
So, celebrate today's events that despite massive military build ups by thugs and attacks and violence, but in all cities and towns people to their best abilities, in clear or in hiding showed up and declared their disgust. Tomorrow, the Green movement is a day older, a day maturer, and a day more experienced than today. We are countless....

 

[Zob Ahan]

More Accounts of REALITY … No Victory … No Defeat

Feb 11th, 2010 by pedestrian

Khordaad88 has translated numerous eyewitness accounts of today’s demonstrations. We will continue to bring you more in the next few days.
Here is one account:
Before the demonstration, we screamed, we shouted: this is such a stupid idea [gathering at Azadi]. We kept arguing that we could not “capture” Azadi Square, and this will only help the enemy. No one listened.

I let a pedestrian get in my car. She was crying. She said they were all on our side, but we did not dare move. They [government supporters] had come from 6 a.m. There was a boy who had a very religious look to him, with a beard and a keffiyeh. He wiped the sweat on his forehead with his keffiyeh, and asked her: “how do you know they were all on our side?” the girl responded between tears: “because they were not repeating the chants heard over the loudspeakers.” And the boy was calling the system every unprintable name under the sun.

I asked: so why didn’t you shout something else?

She said: because there were scores of security forces scattered between us. And besides, you couldn’t tell if the person standing beside you was a government supporter or not.

I asked the boy: so why have you made yourself look like this?

He said: “they told us to. I read so in balatarin.” [the plan was to "look" like government supporters, get in front, and "capture" Azadi Square]

When my wife heard the word “balatarin” she shook her head and I wish I had a keffiyeh too to wipe off my sweat.
——————————————–

Many are talking of whether today was a “defeat” or a “victory” for the greens. Certainly we have to wait some more and observe more, but given what we know … I do not look at events in such terms. What was there that was supposed to be “won” that is now, “lost”? Yes, given the lack of a huge turnout, there will most likely be even more pressure on opposition groups and human rights activists in the following weeks/months … But given where we stand right now, this moment, what was really lost? The Iranians inside Iran either chose to stay away from the protests, or could not gather in big numbers, or … But this is the end result. So, if you were an average Iranian who supported the opposition, what would be lost for you?
If you are a student, activist, etc, in Iran today, you have yet to know. And that’s it exactly: we don’t know yet, to be speaking so loudly of defeat and loss.
I am personally not disapointed, because after seeing the incredible turnout for Ashura, I was certain the state was busy preparing for 22 Bahman from the day after Ashura … They were incredibly surprised that day and they were not going to let it repeat itself, given that it was such an important day for them. It was important to make the opposition look like small groups of eghteshahgar [attention seekers creating disturbance] and to secure the city full force.
Expecting anything else was pure blissful optimism.
Add to that the grave miscalculation by the greens themselves.
I think here is where the diaspora is actually influencing the state in Iran for the worse.
I was at an Iranian salon a few weeks ago. The 57 year old lady who I’ve known for more than a decade now told me: “I have been wanting to go to Iran for two decades now. I am waiting for after 22 Bahman, since the regime will be toppled that day, and then I’m going.”
Really?
I spoke to a traveler agent, a friend of the family, who said that at least a dozen people had called her and told her to make them reservations for Iran – but not to confirm their ticket until 22 Bahman, when they would know that “the regime would be toppled for sure.”
There was a vote on balatarin yesterday where 85% of people (almost 11, 0000 individuals from inside and outside Iran) voted that the greens would “take over” Azadi Square. These thoughts were further amplified by questionable individuals like Mohsen Sazegara who was giving tips on VOA on “what the protesters should do after taking over Azadi”. There were talks about “over 3 million opposition forces” attending the rally. I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulates their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations … and they have become liability for the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair.
The reality was that after Ashura, today was not going to be an easy day, and, that the greens should have at least made a better plan. Given tight security and the lack of a good plan … this was inevitable.
I think today was more a “reality check” than a “defeat”:​

• the state has far more security resources at its disposal than what we’d like to believe
• the state has far more resouces in terms of getting out supporters/call girls/fans/oblivious forced presence/etc than we’d like to think
• we have to think beyond street protests

 

[eshghi]

This is like a long football tournament. You're going to win some games, and and lose others. Either way, with still hundreds of moore games to be played, the final outcome is quite undecided. Along the way, you can always change your formation, tactics, players, coaching staff, or the whole team leadership to mend what's broken.

You do need to keep team unity together, however, and never lose sight of the final goal.

Stay rational: getting too emotional will probably hurt more than help. Don't overreact to either intermediate successes or setbacks.

Keep it real: never over-estimate your own strengths or under-estimate your opponents'. If you do, you do so at your own peril.

so doostAn, please, let's not get emotional. If you thought you had won this tournament after 10 games, you misunderstood. There is still along way to go. If you thought you were going to win the next "big game" just because you won the last one decidedly, think again. Neither bask in the glory of short-term successes nor drown yourself in sorrow for failures. This is going to be a long and bumpy road. You need to keep it real and stay focused.

 

[raminio05]

To quote one of our hamvatans in Iran, "This movement wasn't created in one day, and it wont be destroyed in one." You live and you learn.
I refuse to accept that it was our peoples indifference that kept them from coming out. Fear, apprehension, being weary of a trap, YES! Indifference, NO WAY!

All that said, the need for more concrete leadership became obvious today, but just as a means to organize.

A majority of those who didn't show up today will show up on the next day due to guilt. I'm certain that those hamvatans who did show up today will give their friends and family who didn't show up a piece of their minds.

 

[raminio05]

This is like a long football tournament. You're going to win some games, and and lose others. Either way, with still hundreds of moore games to be played, the final outcome is quite undecided. Along the way, you can always change your formation, tactics, players, coaching staff, or the whole team leadership to mend what's broken.

You do need to keep team unity together, however, and never lose sight of the final goal.

Stay rational: getting too emotional will probably hurt more than help. Don't overreact to either intermediate successes or setbacks.

Keep it real: never over-estimate your own strengths or under-estimate your opponents'. If you do, you do so at your own peril.

so doostAn, please, let's not get emotional. If you thought you had won this tournament after 10 games, you misunderstood. There is till along way to go. If you thought you were going to win the next "big game" just because you won the last one decidedly, think again. Neither bask in the glory of short-term successes nor drown yourself in sorrow for failures. This is going to be a long and bumpy road. You need to keep it real and stay focused.

WORDS OF WISDOM, as always.

 

[General Parsaian]

This is like a long football tournament. You're going to win some games, and and lose others. Either way, with still hundreds of moore games to be played, the final outcome is quite undecided. Along the way, you can always change your formation, tactics, players, coaching staff, or the whole team leadership to mend what's broken.

You do need to keep team unity together, however, and never lose sight of the final goal.

Stay rational: getting too emotional will probably hurt more than help. Don't overreact to either intermediate successes or setbacks.

Keep it real: never over-estimate your own strengths or under-estimate your opponents'. If you do, you do so at your own peril.

so doostAn, please, let's not get emotional. If you thought you had won this tournament after 10 games, you misunderstood. There is still along way to go. If you thought you were going to win the next "big game" just because you won the last one decidedly, think again. Neither bask in the glory of short-term successes nor drown yourself in sorrow for failures. This is going to be a long and bumpy road. You need to keep it real and stay focused.

One OF the Greatest green related Posts
Tnx

 

[IranZamin]

There was a vote on balatarin yesterday where 85% of people (almost 11, 0000 individuals from inside and outside Iran) voted that the greens would “take over” Azadi Square. These thoughts were further amplified by questionable individuals like Mohsen Sazegara who was giving tips on VOA on “what the protesters should do after taking over Azadi”. There were talks about “over 3 million opposition forces” attending the rally. I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulates their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations … and they have become liability for the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair.
The reality was that after Ashura, today was not going to be an easy day, and, that the greens should have at least made a better plan. Given tight security and the lack of a good plan … this was inevitable.​

​

Very valid points, although I wouldn't characterize Sazegara as 'questionable'.

On this very board I've seen instances on Ashoura and other days where otherwise respected members have said 'I think today is the day'. Apparently they really thought this entire apparatus was going to implode in ONE day!

I visited my parents' house earlier today, and I saw two characters on one of those satellite channels listening to reports of protests outside Evin. One of them kept saying 'Hopefully Evin will be liberated tonight'! Really, dumbass?...Even 30 years ago facing a much less brutal force, Evin wasn't 'liberated' until Shah had left and the regime had all but collapsed.

This dopey, childlike optimism plays right into the hands of the regime.

 

[deerouz]

I think we need to slow down on giving the people a 20 mark on everything. It's their country and they have the duty to do whatever it takes to make it a better place or simply flee to another place on earth like we did.

Good point. But Let me take it another step further: It should not be about giving marks at all, or about counting victories versus retreats. In particular when marking is done based on our own personal expectations. In such case after a few bad marks, you will lose heart and will say: "the hell with this people. they don't deserve my support. they are not doing what I think they should do."

And this is not right. A nation makes its history at its own pace. I absolutely agree that there is no reason to praise every single actions of the Green movement or its leaders. We should realise that the green movement, AN, bassijis, monarchists, leftists and others are all playing their roles (positive or negative) in the social development of our nation. Each with their own agenda and goals. But this is just natural. What matters for each of us is that how we can contribute toward the goal that each of us envisions for our nation. Goals that could be different for each Iranian.

For example, If I believe that people should openly revolt against IRI, and if the current events indicate that people are not prepared to do so in face of the widespread and brutal crackdown, then instead of blaming people for not doing what I want, I should find ways to attract more people to this method, advocating it in Iran, inventing creative ways to help those who think like me in this regard etc. If I believe armed struggle is the way to go, then I shoudl be advocating it, helping those who are for it etc. Sitting down and blaming people who may not believe in my method will not advance my cause. The same way that if your party loses election in a democratic country, you don't blame the voters but find ways to reach to them.

So, the challenge for disappointed friends is: If people are not doing what you think they should do, how do you suggest it should be done, and what can be done to advance it and to convince people to follow it. Let's think positive, creative and proactive. and above all, realistic.

 

[Sporthead]

I'm still maintaining that this is an avalanche in the making that started with a small snowball rolling down the hill 8 months ago. In my opinion, we're still a good year or two away from this snowball gathering enough momentum and weight to be all conquering against this mozdoor regime.
The movement clearly lacks leadership. Karoubi goes home after a brief struggle, Mousavi never bothers showing up, even if these guys had been able to join the protests yesterday still I don't think enough people trust either of them to rally completely behind them and their cause (after all, they too are the products of the regime).
But there's no mistaking there will be a leader or leaders that will emerge from this. IR's downfall will be to take them down, after that happens all hell will break loose. Nothing will accelerate the transition from snowball to avalanch than the unjust death of a TRUE LEADER!

 

[bardia]

GREEN MOVEMENT: در حالیکه ما روشهای مسالمت آمیز را تجربه می کنیم ،آنها به فکر حذف ما هستند ،می ایستیم میزنند ،سکوت می کنیم می زنند ،راه می رویم می زنند ،برای مبارزه لازم است گاهی به جهان بینی چماقداران رجوع کرد.شطرنج بازی کردن با کودکان بی معناست.

 

[bardia]

GREEN MOVEMENT: راز پیشروی دموکراسی خواهی درون خودمان است هر گاه ظرفیت لازم را یافتیم آنروز روز پیروزی ما است . این جنبش بی هزینه پیش نمی رود .آنچه اکنون بر آن سیطره یافته ایم وسیله اند . میدان نبرد جای دیگر است . به هوش باشیم.ما بیشماریم

 

[payan]

awaking for a nation,finally a nation decided enough is enough . i just can't comment only on 22 bahman it is much deeper than that .right vs wrong i must say .
however it will be many of ashoura,22 bahman days for people of iran till complete victory.