4 shanbeh soori, what do you predict?

Mr Thick

IPL Player
Oct 21, 2002
2,704
0
#1
Was wondering what you guys think will happen (realistically) as 4 shanbeh soori is traditionally a "too dahani" to IR. This year will obviously be of special importance and will be both dangerous and intriguing.

i think Aklil soranj will be sought after this year instead of the more typical stuff used nowadays for the obvious reasons of sound, shrapnel and damage caused by it.

Fekr konam lobnan shavad dobare.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#2
I'm surprised so little is being advertised or talked about by the greens on the importance of 4-Shanbe Soori.

You'd think after the PATAK of 22-bahman by the regime, people would be eager to make as much noise about 4-shanbe soori as possible.

I'm hoping everyone is doing their part in relative silence until the day arrives, otherwise...
 
Oct 18, 2002
2,662
44
#4
Honestly the movement needs to be organized in such away that it is not about a single day or single moment. Advertising that you will come out in masses on a certain day, only helps the govt secure its forces in key areas and kind of shows your hand to the opponent.

What needs to happen in order for the movement to get beyond just riots and scrimmages between the police and the people, is to branch out the struggle to different dimensions. That way you put enormous resources on the government to control everything and they just don't have the numbers needed to do this.
The Green movement needs to have a process where on a daily basis the government is under constant pressure. There needs to be massive strikes. Sabotages that cripple government owned institutions. Blackout, delay of services, military style attacks on IRI forces (I mean amalkardeh chiriki). You can not win against a ruthless regime through none violence means. Iranians across Iran need to cripple the base of these guys and that is their source of money revenue. Those that lived in Iran during the Revolution and early years of war, remember the daily strikes, the unions that took to the streets and the net effect was that the government simply could not afford to continue its liberal waste of money on paying their goons.
The outside Iranians should put pressure on western governments to continue putting restrictions and heavy sanctions on those institutions that we ALL know support IRI. If international sanctions take a foothold IRI is toast for sure. Iran is almost bankrupt. This may come as a surprise to some, but the country is in dire need of money and stopping sale on it's ONLY source of income (OIL) will bring down these guys faster than any other idea you may think of. I am absolutely convinced, if the movement in Iran becomes a mass demonstration/strike movement and shows a comprehensive POPULAT NATIONAL movement, countries like Russia and China will not be able to afford doing business with such a regime. Not that they give a shit about the people, but it just does not look good for these two to be the sole supported of a country that the world sees as an oppressor (i.e., South Africa of the 80s).

Overall, I think we need to broaden our outlook on the movement and realize that a mass gathering of people on a single day is nice for 10 minute sound bites, but will not be an effective long term plan.
 
Oct 18, 2002
9,759
52
Sydney, Australia
#5
Honestly the movement needs to be organized in such away that it is not about a single day or single moment. Advertising that you will come out in masses on a certain day, only helps the govt secure its forces in key areas and kind of shows your hand to the opponent.

What needs to happen in order for the movement to get beyond just riots and scrimmages between the police and the people, is to branch out the struggle to different dimensions. That way you put enormous resources on the government to control everything and they just don't have the numbers needed to do this.
The Green movement needs to have a process where on a daily basis the government is under constant pressure. There needs to be massive strikes. Sabotages that cripple government owned institutions. Blackout, delay of services, military style attacks on IRI forces (I mean amalkardeh chiriki). You can not win against a ruthless regime through none violence means. Iranians across Iran need to cripple the base of these guys and that is their source of money revenue. Those that lived in Iran during the Revolution and early years of war, remember the daily strikes, the unions that took to the streets and the net effect was that the government simply could not afford to continue its liberal waste of money on paying their goons.
The outside Iranians should put pressure on western governments to continue putting restrictions and heavy sanctions on those institutions that we ALL know support IRI. If international sanctions take a foothold IRI is toast for sure. Iran is almost bankrupt. This may come as a surprise to some, but the country is in dire need of money and stopping sale on it's ONLY source of income (OIL) will bring down these guys faster than any other idea you may think of. I am absolutely convinced, if the movement in Iran becomes a mass demonstration/strike movement and shows a comprehensive POPULAT NATIONAL movement, countries like Russia and China will not be able to afford doing business with such a regime. Not that they give a shit about the people, but it just does not look good for these two to be the sole supported of a country that the world sees as an oppressor (i.e., South Africa of the 80s).

Overall, I think we need to broaden our outlook on the movement and realize that a mass gathering of people on a single day is nice for 10 minute sound bites, but will not be an effective long term plan.
Excellent post! We're putting too much energy into these one off events. IRI is not going to be toppled on chaar shanbe soori, 22 bahman or any other one day or one off event. These events are important to build momentum but as kambujiyeh pointed out we need to start coming up with long term solutions for what is surely going to be a long and protracted battle with this mozdoor government.
 
May 21, 2003
19,849
147
Not The Eshaalic Goozpublic !
#7
char shanbe soori, eyd and three more years. The surface area of Iran from
1.6 million sq kms will be reduced to 0.5 million.

as per shooloogh poolooghi i predict SHIT. because HEZBE BAAD is biggest political party in iran.

splinter groups are BI-KHAYE IMS MOVEMENT AND hezbe kos keshaaye nokiseh.
 
Oct 1, 2004
8,122
205
#9
I will be completey honest, and please don't smack me for this one.
Chaharshanbe soori is always sholoogh in Iran. Its a day where kids make the loudest and sometimes most dangerous narenjaks and throw them around. I think now its worse than 10-15 years ago. Now its common to see kids throw them at old people, other children, women... with the intention of scaring or hurting people.
What I mean is that there will probably be alot of injuries and incidents that day, but we should be careful to not assume every report of dargiri that day is actually politically related.
 
May 21, 2003
19,849
147
Not The Eshaalic Goozpublic !
#10
I will be completey honest, and please don't smack me for this one.
Chaharshanbe soori is always sholoogh in Iran. Its a day where kids make the loudest and sometimes most dangerous narenjaks and throw them around. I think now its worse than 10-15 years ago. Now its common to see kids throw them at old people, other children, women... with the intention of scaring or hurting people.
What I mean is that there will probably be alot of injuries and incidents that day, but we should be careful to not assume every report of dargiri that day is actually politically related.
Yes. god forbid we assume that ....

loooooooooooooooooooool

People of Iran please note:

-label your narenjaks either "this is to annoy old ladies" or "moj e sabz"
-if you are in the street to hurt women and children please wear a name tag saying hooligan
-if you are protesting the political establishment please wear a name tag saying "candidate for future rape and torture"
-if you belong to moje sabz please save SANDIS KHORS a lot of headaches and represent yourself on the following morning to the nearest bassidj center (= NEAREST WHORE HOUSE) to your place of abode
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#11
It will be different this year - waaay different.
You will notice the difference - so will Khamenei
I wish google can do another photo this time night-time.
 
#12
آدينه، 7 اسفند ماه 1388 برابر با 2010 Friday 26 February

چهارشنبه سوری؛ آی بته بته بته، رژیم باید بیفته!

یکی از خوانندگان از تهران: شعارهای چهارشنبه سوری امسال
اطلاع رسانی کنید

آی بته بته بته؛ رژیم باید بیفته!
چه چهارشنبه، چه نوروز؛ قیام ملی پیروز!
ولایت حرف مفته، رژیم باید بیفته؛ اگر چه پوست کلفته!
امسال سال آخره؛ کل رژیم باید بره!
کشته ندادیم که سازش کنیم؛ رهبر قاتل رو ستایش کنیم!
نه سازش، نه تسلیم؛ ملت بی شکستیم!
جمهوری اسلامی، با هر نشان و نیرنگ؛ نابود باید گردد!
حکومت ایرانی، بر پایهٔ رفراندوم عمومی؛ ایجاد باید گردد!


:Iran1:
 
Oct 1, 2004
8,122
205
#13
Yes. god forbid we assume that ....

loooooooooooooooooooool

People of Iran please note:

-label your narenjaks either "this is to annoy old ladies" or "moj e sabz"
-if you are in the street to hurt women and children please wear a name tag saying hooligan
-if you are protesting the political establishment please wear a name tag saying "candidate for future rape and torture"
-if you belong to moje sabz please save SANDIS KHORS a lot of headaches and represent yourself on the following morning to the nearest bassidj center (= NEAREST WHORE HOUSE) to your place of abode
Ro too ham minevisim "namak".
 

Mr Thick

IPL Player
Oct 21, 2002
2,704
0
#17
This is no ordinary day with the narenjaks young ppl have, plz keep this in mind.

Obviously the end of IR will not be with this one day, but we will bear witness to huge gatherings - with ammo.
 

ferdosi

Bench Warmer
Apr 21, 2004
2,190
0
#18
This is no ordinary day with the narenjaks young ppl have, plz keep this in mind.

Obviously the end of IR will not be with this one day, but we will bear witness to huge gatherings - with ammo.


Actually I'm completly against this; let's not make assumption that there will be huge gathering because most likely it will not. All other demonstrations so far had a set place for gathering, this one is all over Thran/Iran. There will not be a big gathering and we shouldn't expect a big gathering since people are all spread out.

There reason I'm saying this is because I don't want to give people inside and outside a false hope of big a gathering and then when It does not happened make them dissapointed..... Nothing is worst than disapointment to make people lose hope....
 

spanx

Bench Warmer
Dec 19, 2005
1,310
0
#19
Judging by 22 Bahman, I predict there will be even less people in the streets this year than normal, people will not let their kids go outside and be easy pray for the regime's hooligans at night when people are the most vulnerable ... as shown by previous experiences at night time violence ...

As for the explosives, doesn't really matter ... this isn't an armed battle and even if it was, those typically with access to "narenjak" aren't the demographics most politically active, they are a bunch of high school kids ...

I might sound pessimistic, it's because I am. This movement in my opinion can survive only so long without clear and strong leadership and when we always pin all our hopes to the next event, for which the government has ample time to prep you can only expect another propeganda show.

I'm still positive about the long term outcomes of the movement, the country is unofficially shut down and all the efforts of the government are focused on containing the people and nothing is getting done, the sad thing about that is that people will suffer and IR will live to see another day ... in my opinion this stalemate will continue to exist until a major event takes place where a wider range of demographics have enough vested to join forces against IR
 
Last edited:
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#20
Judging by 22 Bahman, I predict there will be even less people in the streets this year than normal, people will not let their kids go outside and be easy pray for the regime's hooligans at night when people are the most vulnerable ... as shown by previous experiences at night time violence ...

As for the explosives, doesn't really matter ... this isn't an armed battle and even if it was, those typically with access to "narenjak" aren't the demographics most politically active, they are a bunch of high school kids ...

I might sound pessimistic, it's because I am. This movement in my opinion can survive only so long without clear and strong leadership and when we always pin all our hopes to the next event, for which the government has ample time to prep you can only expect another propeganda show.

I'm still positive about the long term outcomes of the movement, the country is unofficially shut down and all the efforts of the government are focused on containing the people and nothing is getting done, the sad thing about that is that people will suffer and IR will live to see another day ... in my opinion this stalemate will continue to exist until a major event takes place where a wider range of demographics have enough vested to join forces against IR
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