OK so HR & BHO shooting the shit on the phone & all. What happens next? 1) A major deal is made. IR opens up. Economy flourishes. More & more political freedoms are given. SL becomes a symbolic figure. Hejab is lifted (only enforced in gov't agencies & even that is half assed) 2) A major deal is made. Economy flourishes big time. No political/social freedoms. China like IR. 3) Deal falls through an Islamic N Korea is born. People get by but don't give a $hit 4) Deal falls through. Economy tanks. The downtrodden riot. US strikes & IR is demolished like Libya. A puppet gov't is installed but is secular. Future elections. A real Republic is born.
Short run 2)
Long run maybe 1) but that's being very optimistic. However, economic freedom and prosperity one way or other usually lead to political freedom and prosperity. It usually comes at some point.
4) won't happen as Iran would disintegrate differently and we won't see it happen like that. We need drama.
3) won't happen either for many reasons, mainly Iran being important for many reasons (natural resources, geographical position etc.)
But I guess we will see 2) happen soon and since most people mainly care about a job and money for now, it's what will happen and I guess after those shitty 8 years, a lot of people will be happy and stuff.
We went back to 97....we could have had that 4 years earlier with less innocent blood shed...which pisses me really really off
Long run maybe 1) but that's being very optimistic. However, economic freedom and prosperity one way or other usually lead to political freedom and prosperity. It usually comes at some point.
4) won't happen as Iran would disintegrate differently and we won't see it happen like that. We need drama.
3) won't happen either for many reasons, mainly Iran being important for many reasons (natural resources, geographical position etc.)
But I guess we will see 2) happen soon and since most people mainly care about a job and money for now, it's what will happen and I guess after those shitty 8 years, a lot of people will be happy and stuff.
We went back to 97....we could have had that 4 years earlier with less innocent blood shed...which pisses me really really off
What next?
The regime gets what it wants and makes some more money by selling oil. In the long term they will reverse back to their hardline stance citing some breach of agreements by the US and everyone will blame the US and go vote in their sham elections again and a hardliner will take Rohani's place.
The regime gets what it wants and makes some more money by selling oil. In the long term they will reverse back to their hardline stance citing some breach of agreements by the US and everyone will blame the US and go vote in their sham elections again and a hardliner will take Rohani's place.
Much ado about nothing... What happened next was that Rohani got egged and shoed when he returned from New York! According to Reuters, a small contingent of 100's of people showed up to the airport to cheer his return. An even smaller contingent of hardline protestors threw shoes and eggs at his car and shouted "death to America"! Either way, it shows the level of disillusionment of the general population in a country of 70 million for just "hundreds of people" to show their pleasure or dissatisfaction with possibly the most important foreign relations development of the last 35 years.
What happens next is most likely going to be even less nostalgic to the general population. Corruption is not going to go away. This Muslim first, Iranian second mentality is not going to change, Abadan's not going to become more important than Gaza, road fatalities aren't going to drop, water management issues aren't going to get resolved, and the conversion of the population to addicts in large numbers is not going to reverse and the poor aren't going to become middle class, the middle class aren't going to become rich and the rich minority sure as hell aren't going to stop living off the back of the poor and the small middle class - not any time soon, not ever under the IR. The IR in all its glory will only be as good as it was under the first two years of Khatami, because that's all its capable of being - that's all that its structural make up allows. And that realization is what led to the student protests and the crushing response all those years ago.
That's of course the most optimistic prediction, that the economic problems are non-structural and will get resolved somehow and that the IR will just tag along, like it has for 35 years, just above the breaking point of the population. Under any less optimistic scenario, the economy will continue to slide and some or all of these issues will get worse, eventually culminating in an implosion among the ranks and explosion in the populace. It would be a mistake to compare Iran with China - the latter fully appreciates economic ingenuity and privatization, foreign investment and the existence of, and conversion of the poor to, the middle class. The latter has been in the death spiral of non-privatization strengthening a certain group and hell bent on not having a middle class that would become an existential threat - after all economic is for donkeys. The best Iran can be under the IR in every aspect is the soviet union of the 60's and 70's. If Sepah (i.e. the communist party) did not control every aspect of the Iranian economy or society, it would be a different story, but they have absolutely no reason to give up that absolute power IMHO.
What happens next is most likely going to be even less nostalgic to the general population. Corruption is not going to go away. This Muslim first, Iranian second mentality is not going to change, Abadan's not going to become more important than Gaza, road fatalities aren't going to drop, water management issues aren't going to get resolved, and the conversion of the population to addicts in large numbers is not going to reverse and the poor aren't going to become middle class, the middle class aren't going to become rich and the rich minority sure as hell aren't going to stop living off the back of the poor and the small middle class - not any time soon, not ever under the IR. The IR in all its glory will only be as good as it was under the first two years of Khatami, because that's all its capable of being - that's all that its structural make up allows. And that realization is what led to the student protests and the crushing response all those years ago.
That's of course the most optimistic prediction, that the economic problems are non-structural and will get resolved somehow and that the IR will just tag along, like it has for 35 years, just above the breaking point of the population. Under any less optimistic scenario, the economy will continue to slide and some or all of these issues will get worse, eventually culminating in an implosion among the ranks and explosion in the populace. It would be a mistake to compare Iran with China - the latter fully appreciates economic ingenuity and privatization, foreign investment and the existence of, and conversion of the poor to, the middle class. The latter has been in the death spiral of non-privatization strengthening a certain group and hell bent on not having a middle class that would become an existential threat - after all economic is for donkeys. The best Iran can be under the IR in every aspect is the soviet union of the 60's and 70's. If Sepah (i.e. the communist party) did not control every aspect of the Iranian economy or society, it would be a different story, but they have absolutely no reason to give up that absolute power IMHO.
There will be no embassy reopening or anything of that nature for the foreseeable future.
What is likely to happen is Iran will retreat for now on the nuclear front.
They will regroup and in a few years when Obama and Rouhani Terms have ended the nuclear program will likely resume as it was again.
and the fiasco shall resume.
Any kind of grand Bargain with Iran is impractical at the moment.
A grand bargain will entail Afghanistan, Syria,Iraq, Lebanon, and that is way to complex to put together. and once put together it will be really complex for all parties in all both countries to accept the grand bargain.
What is likely to happen is Iran will retreat for now on the nuclear front.
They will regroup and in a few years when Obama and Rouhani Terms have ended the nuclear program will likely resume as it was again.
and the fiasco shall resume.
Any kind of grand Bargain with Iran is impractical at the moment.
A grand bargain will entail Afghanistan, Syria,Iraq, Lebanon, and that is way to complex to put together. and once put together it will be really complex for all parties in all both countries to accept the grand bargain.
Yeh Akhund hamah ro gozashteh sareh car, and that's Khamenie. Heard of taghi-yeh. He is putting up a good face to fool everyone and he will continue on the path to nuclear weapons, while issuing a fatwa against it. It does not make any sense to put the country through so much misery for "peaceful" nuclear work. They could have invested that money in so many other industries, like auto, semiconductor, etc.
The people throwing eggs at the president is nothing mroe than a pre-planned show. They want to show to the world that Rohani is doing the right thing in spite of resistance from hard liners. Afeter all, Rohani is the representation of Khamanei and did exactly what he asked to do (narmesh ghahramaneh). The IRI has financial problem and they have to resolve it. This is what Rohani and Zarif did in 2003 and they made a deal with west to buy time for nuclear ambitions. The only difference is that the west and specially US was involved in two wars, and now they are not. Funny enough, I was watching PBS last night and they talked about how in 2003 they were fooled and this is not going to happen again.
It is so simple to know what Iran wants, the power in the middle east, that is why they are spedning money in army and nuclear power. so far, they have been very successful at it. Iran will stop its nuclear ambition for a while because they have to. Once money start flowing in the core of the regime, they will start nuclear ambition to make a bomb.
It is so simple to know what Iran wants, the power in the middle east, that is why they are spedning money in army and nuclear power. so far, they have been very successful at it. Iran will stop its nuclear ambition for a while because they have to. Once money start flowing in the core of the regime, they will start nuclear ambition to make a bomb.
actually I think it is not accurate to say the west was fooled in 2003.
It think it is more accurate to say to a certain extent Iran was fooled in 2003. Iran signed an agreement that should have meant a bunch of sanctions being removed.
but in reality there was return for the additional protocol signing on behalf of Iran.
I think was aware that they are not gone get much in return in 2003. they were simply worried that the U.S has just invaded IRaq in 22 days.
They decided that it is ok to retreat today. in 2003 they basically decided we will live to fight another day.
It think it is more accurate to say to a certain extent Iran was fooled in 2003. Iran signed an agreement that should have meant a bunch of sanctions being removed.
but in reality there was return for the additional protocol signing on behalf of Iran.
I think was aware that they are not gone get much in return in 2003. they were simply worried that the U.S has just invaded IRaq in 22 days.
They decided that it is ok to retreat today. in 2003 they basically decided we will live to fight another day.
Khamenei came up with a nice new term the other day called "Narmesh Ghahremanane", and sent a signal to the rest of hardliners in Iran that it is time to bend over and succumb to the might of great Satan. The Iranian team in New York was desperate for any type of photo op or discussion with the American side. In short they were seeking relevancy again. The supreme Gooz may have found out the hard way that isolation is no longer the way to go and you can still be an accepted member of international community while you suppress your own people.
The presidential elections, the New York trip, phone call with Obama, and even the return with staged egging and shoes thrown are all a good show orchestrated by Khamenei's office. They want to show the world that 1- Iran has a freely elected president 2- He is a moderate and not crazy like his predecessor 3- Mullahs are not dangerous and can be dealt with
Short and Long term not much will change in Iran. Sanctions may be lifted and the economical situation will improve temporarily but the system overall will remain corrupted. While temporarily some restrictions will be lifted inside Iran, the mullahs will not allow too much breathing room to risk their own position.
The presidential elections, the New York trip, phone call with Obama, and even the return with staged egging and shoes thrown are all a good show orchestrated by Khamenei's office. They want to show the world that 1- Iran has a freely elected president 2- He is a moderate and not crazy like his predecessor 3- Mullahs are not dangerous and can be dealt with
Short and Long term not much will change in Iran. Sanctions may be lifted and the economical situation will improve temporarily but the system overall will remain corrupted. While temporarily some restrictions will be lifted inside Iran, the mullahs will not allow too much breathing room to risk their own position.
Sanctions were meant to get this regime to choose a more moderate president, get on their knees and ask for lesser punishment from west while they promise to listen to what ever they are told in future. Last time I checked, that was accomplished.
In the mean while, the hezzie boys and the hardliners can fantasize with the 18.000 centrifuges running for "now" and try to get some sleep at night
In the mean while, the hezzie boys and the hardliners can fantasize with the 18.000 centrifuges running for "now" and try to get some sleep at night
Sanctions were meant to get this regime to choose a more moderate president, get on their knees and ask for lesser punishment from west while they promise to listen to what ever they are told in future. Last time I checked, that was accomplished.
In the mean while, the hezzie boys and the hardliners can fantasize with the 18.000 centrifuges running for "now" and try to get some sleep at night
In the mean while, the hezzie boys and the hardliners can fantasize with the 18.000 centrifuges running for "now" and try to get some sleep at night
Alaf ??!!! Do you want to get ban again
Hahahaha, so what if IR is in power ? people like me are enjoying making money here, taking it to Iran with the huge exchange rate and enjoying their vacations there
Why do we need the IR not to be in power ? hahahahah
Thanks to IR we have multiple passport and oppurtunity to live and work and get education in best places in world while going freely back to Iran anytime we want and enjoy our money and vacation and cholokababs
What else can we ask for ??
Hahahaha, so what if IR is in power ? people like me are enjoying making money here, taking it to Iran with the huge exchange rate and enjoying their vacations there
Why do we need the IR not to be in power ? hahahahah
Thanks to IR we have multiple passport and oppurtunity to live and work and get education in best places in world while going freely back to Iran anytime we want and enjoy our money and vacation and cholokababs
What else can we ask for ??
i predicted all this 6 months ago by starting this thread:
http://forums.iransportspress.com/showthread.php?79305-my-note-on-the-current-global-affairs
the u.s. needs iran strategically as much if not more than iran needs the u.s.
the reaction from the anti-iran forces in the middle east is also as expected:
There was no official reaction on Saturday from Riyadh or Jerusalem to the telephone call, which was the first direct conversation between American and Iranian presidents in more than three decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel spent the day rewriting the speech he is scheduled to deliver Tuesday at the United Nations and preparing for a meeting on Monday with Mr. Obama. After years in which Mr. Netanyahu exploited Iran’s nuclear ambitions to rally the world against Iran and force its isolation, Israel could find itself increasingly isolated in its hard-line stance.
“Netanyahu understands that there is a lot of euphoria,” a senior Israeli official said. “Netanyahu knows that people in the international community will want to believe. I think you’ll see in his remarks a lot of facts, a lot of facts that no one denies.”
“The gulf states, and the Iranians, still see this as a balance-of-power struggle,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center. “And Obama’s warning and Rouhani’s charm offensive, as well as what they would see as a hoodwinking of the United States on the nuclear issue, could have far-reaching consequences on the balance-of-power struggle.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/w...-iran-with-suspicion.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
the little shiekhs in the persian gulf and the isreali clown bibi should be put on suicide watch for the next few weeks.
they are desperate and are prone to acting wildly and irrationally going forward.
http://forums.iransportspress.com/showthread.php?79305-my-note-on-the-current-global-affairs
the u.s. needs iran strategically as much if not more than iran needs the u.s.
the reaction from the anti-iran forces in the middle east is also as expected:
There was no official reaction on Saturday from Riyadh or Jerusalem to the telephone call, which was the first direct conversation between American and Iranian presidents in more than three decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel spent the day rewriting the speech he is scheduled to deliver Tuesday at the United Nations and preparing for a meeting on Monday with Mr. Obama. After years in which Mr. Netanyahu exploited Iran’s nuclear ambitions to rally the world against Iran and force its isolation, Israel could find itself increasingly isolated in its hard-line stance.
“Netanyahu understands that there is a lot of euphoria,” a senior Israeli official said. “Netanyahu knows that people in the international community will want to believe. I think you’ll see in his remarks a lot of facts, a lot of facts that no one denies.”
“The gulf states, and the Iranians, still see this as a balance-of-power struggle,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center. “And Obama’s warning and Rouhani’s charm offensive, as well as what they would see as a hoodwinking of the United States on the nuclear issue, could have far-reaching consequences on the balance-of-power struggle.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/w...-iran-with-suspicion.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
the little shiekhs in the persian gulf and the isreali clown bibi should be put on suicide watch for the next few weeks.
they are desperate and are prone to acting wildly and irrationally going forward.