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  1. #136
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    I am not sure what you are referring to as biofuel. but really the biofuel strategy of last 15 years has been a total failure.
    it basically takes more energy to produce biofuel than it generates.

    as far true renewables geothermal is very promising but it has limited places where one can currently apply it.

    solar and wind basically have a massive issue and that is that they are intermittent.
    unless the energy storage issue gets solved.

    there is of course nuclear as well. bill gates and others are working on new reactors that would actually work
    on nuclear waste of old reactors. but that is just research project.

    the most likely replacement can only be seen as natural gas. but the issue with natural gas is that shipping it
    is rather difficult. it requires pipelines which is very permanent in nature as Europe has demonstrated it lacks flexibility.

    unless the storage solution gets solved i don't see renewable energy becoming anything bigger than 10-20% of world energy portfolio.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


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  3. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by byebyenow View Post
    You really are underestimating the renewable energy. .
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    It really has been a political matter in countries such as US, Canada, China and Russia to insist of using mass amount of coal and fossil fuel instead of better alternatives.
    All hype. When the true price of output is correctly measured, all the stuff you mentioned become laughable jokes compared to oil. They're just hypes, and only meant for retail consumption. Oil would have to trade at $300+/barrel for any of those technologies to have substantial merit.

    Sure, the oil corps do their lobbying, but really, with the cash they have in hand and their guaranteed income, they would love nothing more than finding an alternative to expand their business.

    The only alternative to oil is nuclear energy and the technology to release atomic energy at cheap rates simply does not exist. Natural gas is pretty much the same concept as oil (of course cleaner) but as mentioned, the transport is a serious problem.


  4. #138
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    I'm not arguing the fact that Petroleum is not the most reliable source of energy in terms of economically and accessibility of it. There is the reason it is widely been used and is still continued to be used in the very large extent. In capitalism, it only make sense to use these source of energy for efficiency of cost in output relationship. However we are living in the world that public opinion is changing drastically and the climate change topic is more and more discussed as ever before by politicians. There are massive researches and investments now compared to not long ago for new source of renewable cleaner energy and that should not put aside out of the box when we want to calculate the future of petroleum. Also to reduce consumption of our petroleum by large portion it takes time and we are not at the point of changing it right away but it may take up to 20-30 years. In the meanwhile the only option would be nuclear energy which has its own problems specially at the wake of Fukushima. But there are also new development in the nuclear energy which is still under research stage.
    What I'm referring to biofuel are Ethanol, biodisel, biogas, ect... which of course had many issues and also not all are considered very clean but there are many new researches of this sector as well such as research for Algae biofuels, Fungi biofuels, and researches in agriculture to study crops to use more economically Ethanol biofuels. Lets not forget using biofuels does make sense for many farmers to use as the cost to output of using biofuels produced by their farmland wastes is much better than the one from petroleum. Again biofuels have many issues and have their own problems but the development of consumption for these fuels has been already constructed as far as some suggestion of using biofuels even in US military which as an organization has the largest petroleum consumption of the entire world.
    As far as storage issues with the solar and wind there are many promising researches with new development of batteries such as K-air batteries and Li-air batteries which is said will increase the storage abilities of the batteries by several times than the lithium-ion batteries which itself is an upgrade to the older batteries. The only issue is the cost of these batteries as even lithium-ion is still expensive, but just like lithium-ion the cost of these batteries will decrease significantly by the next several years. If the cost of lithium-ion decrease in the way it does it will soon replace all of the old nickel based batteries which is already doing. Same applies to LED technology. The wind and solar energy sources are only fraction of (less than 1%) US energy consumption and even with the growth of up to 20% of energy supply is a significant growth. Lets not forget some countries already having much larger percentage of their energy consumption by these practices much higher than 20%. There is also hydroelectricity which could have its own environmental problems but the source of Mississippi and Missouri river in the US can provide majority of electricity needs of this country. China, Egypt, Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, India, ect... also have great potential of providing their electricity needs by hydroelectricity and can use Brazil as their model.
    I like the idea of geothermal very much and is the most promising energy source for the future and Iran is actually a high potential hot spot for these practices.
    Natural gas also has the same problems as oil and is really not the solution for replacing the oil. In fact it could also be more dirtier than oil if we take the toxics produced in extraction stage in to consideration.
    The biggest challenge to eliminate petroleum use really relies on transportation sector rather than Industrial, commercial and residential sectors. But with many development of biochemistry research and new stages of battery technologies and hydrogen ion battery cells the future of transportation could really be transformed but it only needs time to become economically affordable.
    Oil won't go anywhere soon and the use of petroleum will never disappear but in the next few decades if there are enough investments and researches the consumption of petroleum could really diminished significantly and cut down on the demand. Of course in capitalism it wouldn't make sense but in terms of preserving oil and gas and our earth the public opinion really could shift toward developing these sources of energies. There are already significant development in producing much more efficient gasoline/diesel cars and trucks that already effecting the petroleum consumption of China and US in transportation sector but the whole challenge is Africa which with development taking place there more African will afford purchasing vehicles which will add to use of petroleum, so the only option is really to look for another source of energy and it already is in process.
    Last edited by byebyenow; 13-04-2015 at 12:45 AM.
    Forza La Vecchia Signora

  5. #139
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    Thank god I added Yelp again the other day on the dip. My average cost is around $30. Today it had a 23% bump. After selling Facebook in the $20s (i bought at $17) I said never again I will let go of these high flying stocks when they are bought "low". Had I held on to FB I would have been up almost 5 times.

  6. #140
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    I have it too my cost basis is much higher. should have some at 100 but failed to do so.

    but then again. this is real company that actually makes money. are they being hurt Google Search monopoly? yes

    are they gone go suddenly out of business? I really don't think so.

    If balmer was still Microsoft CEO i would have said Yelp gets acquired by them. but I don't think the Current Microsoft will do it.

    Ironically Yelp is better off being stand alone because both Apple and Microsoft need them for mapping solutions and reviews of businesses.

    Facebook? I really don't know how they can intergrate yelp in to their business.

    the best candidate is probably Trip Advisor, priceline somebody else which in disposable income business.

    Yahoo: I don't care how much yahoo can pay up. they will screw yelp up. so I much rather they stay away.

    my guess is yelp wants something like 8-10 billion for their business and nobody would be willing to pay that much.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


  7. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zob Ahan View Post
    Thank god I added Yelp again the other day on the dip. My average cost is around $30. Today it had a 23% bump. After selling Facebook in the $20s (i bought at $17) I said never again I will let go of these high flying stocks when they are bought "low". Had I held on to FB I would have been up almost 5 times.
    There's a ZOMBIE style of valuation for these companies and it simply doesn't make sense to the traditional investor. There simply is no good formula or even a 'gut feeling' for determining whether any of these internet stocks are good value or not.

    I've pretty much given up on buying individual high-tech stocks. They don't make any sense and the amount of insider-trading in these companies is borderline insane. I hold a general amount in ETFs or Mutual Funds that cover the sector.

    When I buy an oil stock, I know exactly what I am getting into. Same with utilities and even financials (banks). When I buy Facebook or Yelp or King, I have no clue what's going on. I'm basically betting on the youth's social trends of the day(we know how well that works!). No hard assets, no transparency, no history, no meaningful charts, no clear prospects. Simply a gamble.

    And I'm an IT guy who supposedly 'gets it'!


  8. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    There's a ZOMBIE style of valuation for these companies and it simply doesn't make sense to the traditional investor. There simply is no good formula or even a 'gut feeling' for determining whether any of these internet stocks are good value or not.

    I've pretty much given up on buying individual high-tech stocks. They don't make any sense and the amount of insider-trading in these companies is borderline insane. I hold a general amount in ETFs or Mutual Funds that cover the sector.

    When I buy an oil stock, I know exactly what I am getting into. Same with utilities and even financials (banks). When I buy Facebook or Yelp or King, I have no clue what's going on. I'm basically betting on the youth's social trends of the day(we know how well that works!). No hard assets, no transparency, no history, no meaningful charts, no clear prospects. Simply a gamble.

    And I'm an IT guy who supposedly 'gets it'!
    I'm with you but there are some stocks that if you buy the leader you can't go wrong. My strategy has always been to look what stock took a big dump (20%+). If I like the stock and I know what they do I buy some. Yelp is not a fad and the news that came out was not so bad to make the stock lose 25%. If they do get taken over there is room for another 30% upside and if they don't just the rumor itself helps the stock.

  9. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    I have it too my cost basis is much higher. should have some at 100 but failed to do so.

    but then again. this is real company that actually makes money. are they being hurt Google Search monopoly? yes

    are they gone go suddenly out of business? I really don't think so.

    If balmer was still Microsoft CEO i would have said Yelp gets acquired by them. but I don't think the Current Microsoft will do it.

    Ironically Yelp is better off being stand alone because both Apple and Microsoft need them for mapping solutions and reviews of businesses.

    Facebook? I really don't know how they can intergrate yelp in to their business.

    the best candidate is probably Trip Advisor, priceline somebody else which in disposable income business.

    Yahoo: I don't care how much yahoo can pay up. they will screw yelp up. so I much rather they stay away.

    my guess is yelp wants something like 8-10 billion for their business and nobody would be willing to pay that much.
    I would probably sell it before the take over is complete. The M & A in biotech companies is insane.(GEVA) was up again today after being up 136% yesterday.

  10. #144
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    Amazon up 20% in one day and has surpassed Walmart's market cap.

    This company is going places. I personally do 50% of my shopping there these days.


  11. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Amazon up 20% in one day and has surpassed Walmart's market cap.

    This company is going places. I personally do 50% of my shopping there these days.
    Google did the same a few days ago.

  12. #146
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    I went to industrial Mining space and picked up some Joy Global.

    people hate it now. because of China and Brazil. but it is a real company with real profits it will recover one day.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


  13. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    I went to industrial Mining space and picked up some Joy Global.

    people hate it now. because of China and Brazil. but it is a real company with real profits it will recover one day.

    I used to own it when it was JOYG and on the NASDAQ. I made money on it but it has been going down for the last 5-6 years.

  14. #148
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    It's a fucking bloodbath out there these days. I'm in the red. Sold my TVIX gamble at 130% gain to offset some of the losses.

    Can't say I didn't see this coming. The market has been ripe for a correction for a year now (hence my TVIX gamble), but I got too lazy and didn't sell anything.


  15. #149
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    if you are playing around in your retirement account.
    This is no big deal. if you sell things the chance you missing a big rally is generally higher than the chance being stuck in a huge plunge.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


  16. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    I went to industrial Mining space and picked up some Joy Global.

    people hate it now. because of China and Brazil. but it is a real company with real profits it will recover one day.
    Joy down 16% today @ 52 week low. Bought 200 @ $18.25.
    Last edited by Zob Ahan; 03-09-2015 at 04:19 PM.

 

 

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