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  1. #16
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    The wheels are coming off. There is a feeling that nobody is in charge. Look at the Ebola fiasco here and ISIS over there. Rampant incompetence.
    They can again be what they once were

  2. #17
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    markets have been due for correction. it has been going up non-stop since 2011.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    markets have been due for correction. it has been going up non-stop since 2011.
    I think it will melt even more before settling where it is not inflated. If this continues into late November and December, people will be afraid of shopping and that will be the real hit.
    The trench is dug within our hearts
    And mothers, children, brothers, sisters torn apart

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ME View Post
    I think it will melt even more before settling where it is not inflated. If this continues into late November and December, people will be afraid of shopping and that will be the real hit.
    It won't go that far. The correction was indeed due, but it is now clear how dependent the market was on the Fed's QE money. The slightest hint of QE ending and look what the market is doing. This was a spoiled market.

    One could say raising interest rates, as crazy as it may sound, could potentially force all these corporations to tap into their insane cash reserves instead of borrowing free money.

    0% interest never looked like a good idea to me. It promotes stagnation more than stability.


  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post

    0% interest never looked like a good idea to me. It promotes stagnation more than stability.
    That's how bailed out companies were able to "pay back" their bailout money. They borrowed money from the lender(government) at 0% interest, lent it to people at 4% then turned around and repaid the same lender with that money claiming all the while that they have retired their loan. Anybody else would go to jail over this.
    They can again be what they once were

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  7. #21
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    They did not have even have to lend back to normal people.

    they could just borrow money at 0% using the discount window turn around and buy 1,2,10 year treasuries depending on their risk appetite.

    by the way the QE and interest rates are related but they are not the same. QE was sort of unprecedented Fed Action Similar to TARP which was unprecedented (at that scale) for treasury to do.

  8. #22
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    Looks like it's bouncing back at this point. I didn't put my money where my mouth is this time. I didn't buy shit


  9. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Looks like it's bouncing back at this point. I didn't put my money where my mouth is this time. I didn't buy shit

    IMO your money is safer this way. This market will take time to recover. Your best bet is investing on individual companies that you predict they will beat the market. I sold everything I had except select companies 2 weeks ago and will not buy before the mid Esat, and ebola issues are settled and before hearing good news on retail this holiday season. There will be bad weeks to follow.
    The trench is dug within our hearts
    And mothers, children, brothers, sisters torn apart

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  11. #24
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    Some people are making a wad of money from these stock market fucktuations.

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Strangemoosh View Post
    Some people are making a wad of money from these stock market fucktuations.
    don't be fooled. those by in large professional hedge-funders.

    you will never be able to have that success. and if you do please rest assured that you were just lucky.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Strangemoosh View Post
    Some people are making a wad of money from these stock market fucktuations.
    The average investor has no shot at timing these things. Best bet is to ride the waves and look for unfounded panics.

    Oil for example is too cheap right now. There is no way oil will remain below $100 in the next 5 years. There is no replacement for it (not by a long shot). The world economy can easily handle oil at $200 if push comes to shove.


  14. #27
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    luck has very little to do with making money in the markets.what you
    need is a deep understanding of the markets and all the instruments
    available to you to make money in a bull or a bear market.like every other
    line of work if you work hard you will get rewarded.most iranians want to
    make money the easy way and do not put it the hard work needed to
    research and screen stocks to find good value.so when they lose in the
    market they blame luck.here is an example you can trade right now.
    gpro is a hot stock that is trading in the low 70s today.it is very volatile
    which means you get good premiums on it's options.but it is a good long term
    stock to own since they got a very hot product.the simple way is to go and
    either short or buy the stock and depend on 'luck' to make money.the sophisticated
    way is to play it through options.i want to own this stock but i think it is too high.
    so what i can do is to sell some put options.for example i can sell jan15 $50 put
    options for about $6 a contract right now.let's say i sell 10 of these contracts that
    means i get $6000 right now.if by jan15 gpro stock price is above $50 the options
    expire and i have made $6000.if the price is below $50 then i have to buy 1000 shares
    at what ever price it's t but i get $6 discount even on that price since i already got $6000.
    so if gpro is at $45 i am effectively buying it at $45-6=$39 a share.this is how you go
    about buying a stock you want to buy but do not know when to buy it since it might
    fall further.it sure beats buying gpro at $70 right now and then blame 'luck' for the loss
    if the price falls to $50 next year.

  15. #28
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    oh thank you for making it sounds so simple. now every dude off the street can go out and do this.
    I am assuming you are talking about naked puts.
    in which case you are subject to Margin calls, Fed calls and load of other regulations you would not be aware of.

    and if you are talking a covered put then I am putting forward 300K which means you made 2% in three month and 8% on an annualized basis.
    That's of course assuming go pro is around come January.

  16. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    oh thank you for making it sounds so simple. now every dude off the street can go out and do this.
    I am assuming you are talking about naked puts.
    in which case you are subject to Margin calls, Fed calls and load of other regulations you would not be aware of.

    and if you are talking a covered put then I am putting forward 300K which means you made 2% in three month and 8% on an annualized basis.
    That's of course assuming go pro is around come January.
    no.you need to educate yourself about options.first of all you need to be qualified by
    your broker to trade options.they usually let you do covered or naked calls easy.next you
    need to be qualified by them to sell puts.that requires a few years of trading experience.
    as far as margin goes,they would probably not let you sell puts on margin anyway.they
    require cash for that.finally you do not need $300k to do the trade i mentioned.you need
    only enough cash to cover the strike price in this case only $50k.i leave as an exercise
    for you to do the rest of the math and figure out how much you make.you are typical of
    most iranians who insist on not learning the tricks of the trade because it is complicated and
    requires paying some attention but it is ok i am just trying to show the folks here on how
    the pros do trading.maybe a few will pay attention.

  17. #30
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    i got the math wrong; my bad.

    I have actually sold plenty of covered puts for banks.

    but the point still remains you are not selling puts on Johnson and Johnson here.

    you are selling puts on a company with no past and one that has no clear future.

    the risk premium is there for a very good reason. remember black berry the charlatan cramer used to call it
    the four horseman of tech back 6 years ago.

    writing put options is indeed very dangerous only less dangerous than shorting and writing long options.

 

 

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