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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    i got the math wrong; my bad.

    I have actually sold plenty of covered puts for banks.

    but the point still remains you are not selling puts on Johnson and Johnson here.

    you are selling puts on a company with no past and one that has no clear future.

    the risk premium is there for a very good reason. remember black berry the charlatan cramer used to call it
    the four horseman of tech back 6 years ago.

    writing put options is indeed very dangerous only less dangerous than shorting and writing long options.
    yes i understand the risk factor.but this trade is for those who want to buy gpro and are looking
    for an entry point.since gpro is risky and the market is funky these days it is a lot riskier to buy
    gpro outright at this point.with this trade you give the stock until jan17,2015 to evolve.if it keeps
    going up you made some money.if it goes down then you have bought it at a much lower price
    than you would have bought now and saved a bundle.the point is if you want to buy a stock that
    you think have a good future ahead of it in a volatile market it is a lot less riskier to sell the put
    than to buy it at current prices.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Playboy View Post
    yes i understand the risk factor.but this trade is for those who want to buy gpro and are looking
    for an entry point.since gpro is risky and the market is funky these days it is a lot riskier to buy
    gpro outright at this point.with this trade you give the stock until jan17,2015 to evolve.if it keeps
    going up you made some money.if it goes down then you have bought it at a much lower price
    than you would have bought now and saved a bundle.the point is if you want to buy a stock that
    you think have a good future ahead of it in a volatile market it is a lot less riskier to sell the put
    than to buy it at current prices.
    I understand your point about entry points, but just for the sake of presenting an opposing view, isn't the "want" in your context associated with "now"?

    On Jan 17, 2015, if GoPro has indeed dropped below $50, chances are it's become quite a downward mess. It might be worth $20 and yes you will end up buying it for $14, but at that point that's a totally "unwanted" asset.

    In contrast, someone who has been waiting for an entry point on GoPro, would probably drop the idea altogether if the stock was facing a downward trend like that.

    Overall, I agree that this is a better strategy than buying outright when it comes to most stable stocks.


  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    I understand your point about entry points, but just for the sake of presenting an opposing view, isn't the "want" in your context associated with "now"?

    On Jan 17, 2015, if GoPro has indeed dropped below $50, chances are it's become quite a downward mess. It might be worth $20 and yes you will end up buying it for $14, but at that point that's a totally "unwanted" asset.

    In contrast, someone who has been waiting for an entry point on GoPro, would probably drop the idea altogether if the stock was facing a downward trend like that.

    Overall, I agree that this is a better strategy than buying outright when it comes to most stable stocks.
    yes i want to buy gpro but i think it is overvalued now and i think $50 a share is a more
    reasonable valuation for it as things stands.hence the selling put strategy.of course you
    have had to do your research and convince yourself that gpro is something you want to
    own in your portfolio otherwise why even bother.the point is if i am wrong and gpro keeps
    going up i make some money to ease the pain.and if i get to buy it then i buy it at a price
    that my research tells me is a good price.and btw you won't get that level of premium
    for a 'stable' stock.for example aapl jan15 put option for strike price of $77 will get you only
    50 cents per contract.it is now trading at $97.

  4. #34
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    The Markets are taking a dump on Amazon once again.

    if you have some money you can forget about for ten years. 270ish is not bad entry points

    for a two trick pony. Big Worldwide retailer. A play into cloud computing.

    The downside being That cloud alone will take 4-5 billion worth of investment annually.
    that is not to mention all the investments into the e-commerce business.

    so this company will likely never be cash flow positive for another 10 years.

  5. #35
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    Amazon is ripe for a take over. I don't know who will do it, but someone should. Walmart?

    If Alibaba wasn't such a shady company, I would say they're the natural predator for Amazon.


  6. #36
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    the company is too large for any takeover. any takeover will likely have to pay 250 billion for it.
    and no body has that kind of money lying around.

    as far merger goes it won't work with a retailer because only walmart is big enough to digest Amazon.
    and justice department won't allow that.

    as for tech merger goes. Only Microsoft, Apple, Google have the kind of Balance sheet that would allow such a merger
    but justice department will likely block that as well.

    merger with Ebay. No No Justice will block that.

    I can't see Bazoz selling the company. but even if the offer was sweet enough justice department will force them
    to divest of one of the business they are in.

  7. #37
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    Is there anywhere one can download historical stock market prices data for free? I am interested in doing some time-series and correlation analysis on them. I bet one can identify features that can be exploited to predict future trends. For example, one may postulate that when oil companies stocks drop to due drop in oil prices, airlines stocks would go up because their main cost is fuel. I would like to be able to test these things.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by spinhead View Post
    Is there anywhere one can download historical stock market prices data for free? I am interested in doing some time-series and correlation analysis on them. I bet one can identify features that can be exploited to predict future trends. For example, one may postulate that when oil companies stocks drop to due drop in oil prices, airlines stocks would go up because their main cost is fuel. I would like to be able to test these things.
    There are thousands of companies that do just that and not a single one of them has been able to properly exploit the technical aspect on a consistent basis. If they could, they would be famous.

    Heck I've been doing it on a single stock that has existed for 30 years and I know the company very well and out of 10 predictions my model makes, 5 turn out to be false!

    You'd spend your time much more wisely if you simply diversified your money among all sectors.

    Years ago, I wrote a very well-thought-out script for Canadian$/U$ exchange rate fluctuations and applied to automatic forex trades. It did well for a few days and then it didn't. I know of some scripts that have been consistently producing profits for months, but I wouldn't invest a single penny in any of them because they could collapse within minutes if something goes wrong with the markets (and it does quite often).


  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    There are thousands of companies that do just that and not a single one of them has been able to properly exploit the technical aspect on a consistent basis. If they could, they would be famous.

    Heck I've been doing it on a single stock that has existed for 30 years and I know the company very well and out of 10 predictions my model makes, 5 turn out to be false!

    You'd spend your time much more wisely if you simply diversified your money among all sectors.

    Years ago, I wrote a very well-thought-out script for Canadian$/U$ exchange rate fluctuations and applied to automatic forex trades. It did well for a few days and then it didn't. I know of some scripts that have been consistently producing profits for months, but I wouldn't invest a single penny in any of them because they could collapse within minutes if something goes wrong with the markets (and it does quite often).
    Yes I know a lot of people do this. I believe data mining is the mathematical basis for algorithms used by robot traders. The proper way to test scripts would by cross-validation where you split you data say into 10 parts and use 9 parts to predict the 10th part to prove that you have do significantly better than chance (50%) and also estimate your variance.

    My question was do you know where I can get download some of this historical data for free?

  10. #40
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    I am not sure what sort of data you are referring to.
    if you mean equity prices for stocks at the end of day.

    I am pretty sure that can be obtained for free or nominal price from a provider.

    however I believe what you point to for robots is far more complicated.
    They have written millions of lines code to take multitude of variables into account.

    Macro picture things like Prime interest rate,inflation, monthly department of labor job data,census data, real estate prices, commodity prices
    more obscure things like weather, Risk index
    Historical prices.
    current stuff: volume, news release,...

    and usually the system does not take action based on machine learning. it takes actions based on thesis input into the system.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    I am not sure what sort of data you are referring to.
    if you mean equity prices for stocks at the end of day.

    I am pretty sure that can be obtained for free or nominal price from a provider.

    however I believe what you point to for robots is far more complicated.
    They have written millions of lines code to take multitude of variables into account.

    Macro picture things like Prime interest rate,inflation, monthly department of labor job data,census data, real estate prices, commodity prices
    more obscure things like weather, Risk index
    Historical prices.
    current stuff: volume, news release,...

    and usually the system does not take action based on machine learning. it takes actions based on thesis input into the system.
    You are right. I am sure the pros do it that way in a much more complicated way. I am just interested in toying with data to derive simple inferences. By data I mean things like closing prices for various stock symbols, so there would be roughly 300 or so time-points per year per symbol.

  12. #42
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    I am no expert but aren't stock prices of publicly traded companies available all over the place for free? Here is one for IBM
    They can again be what they once were

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flint View Post
    I am no expert but aren't stock prices of publicly traded companies available all over the place for free? Here is one for IBM
    He means daily closing prices for a long period (5-10 years). I believe they're available for free as well, but am not sure what the process is to get them. I'd be interested in finding out too.

    I remember Yahoo Finance used to have an "export data to Excel" option in the past. I can't seem to find it right now. Any other site with a similar interface?


  14. #44
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    In the link I gave, you can get the daily stock price from Jan 2. 1962. At the bottom of the page there is a link to download to a spreadsheet.
    They can again be what they once were

  15. #45
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    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IBM+Historical+Prices



    Yahoo finance once you choose your sybmol gives you an option on the left (Historical Prices).... You can input your range and then see the prices.

 

 

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