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  1. #76
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    buying Exon Today. 88 was the level that Buffet invested in Exxon

  2. #77
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    Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

    There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.


  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

    There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.
    Last time oil was trading at today’s price Exxon was about $68. It has to go a lot lower, dontcha think?
    They can again be what they once were

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

    There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.
    you can't time the market. you just have to dolloar cost average. buy some now. buy some down 20% again. that is if you believe in the likes of XOM CVX, TOT, RDSA, BP, SLB, HAL, COP

    They have the massive balance sheet to withstand this for a few years.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flint View Post
    Last time oil was trading at today’s price Exxon was about $68. It has to go a lot lower, dontcha think?
    Well the price of a stock doesn't have much to do with actual numbers and prices of commodities. It's all about market perception. Exxon is a behemoth with enough cash to feed the entire world for a few years. That's what people look at while considering the lower oil prices. Last time oil was at today's price, Exxon was not as rich as they are today.

    Overall I don't see a way for oil to stay down. I see major wars and crazy political instability on the horizon. All the bullshit "alternative energy" talk aside, oil is still the thing that makes the world go around.

    The question right now is, how long can the Saudis and Russians play the $50 barrel game. As powerful as the Arab kingdom might feel when it comes to oil, I believe they're gasping for their last breaths. They've overplayed their hand this time. A few powerful shale producers in the US and then a bunch of dictatorships (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and such) can easily make life hard for the Saudis, and they will.


  6. #81
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    one idea to hedge your possible oil bet without going short on anything.
    is possibly going long on China and india which have no oil.

    and would marginally benefit from lower oil prices.

    some estimates have it that 60 dollar oil will mean 1% more GDP growth in India.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Well the price of a stock doesn't have much to do with actual numbers and prices of commodities.
    What instrument do yoI have to invest in if I want to parallel oil price? Looks like Exxon or other oil companies ain’t it. I want my investment to double when oil goes back to $100. I suppose there are the energy sector mutual funds.
    They can again be what they once were

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flint View Post
    What instrument do yoI have to invest in if I want to parallel oil price? Looks like Exxon or other oil companies ainít it. I want my investment to double when oil goes back to $100. I suppose there are the energy sector mutual funds.
    It is called the future market. it is a very risky market.

    it never closes. it is open 24 hours a day.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flint View Post
    What instrument do yoI have to invest in if I want to parallel oil price? Looks like Exxon or other oil companies ain’t it. I want my investment to double when oil goes back to $100. I suppose there are the energy sector mutual funds.
    If you're a true believer in a bull energy market, here is an ETF that will make you very rich if your gamble works:

    ERX (3X leveraged - extremely risky, made me a very nice 250% in the past few years. Sold it 2 months ago and am thanking my lucky stars I did!)

    I'm thinking of buying again when oil starts to climb.

    Don't invest more than 0.5% (half a percent) to 1% of your money into such ETFs unless you're really crazy.


  10. #85
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    If you have money to spend you might wnat to buy apple it is really low right now it is a $119/share. Personally, I stay away from stocks if you want to invest either invest in a small commercial property or get a 2nd property as an investment. In the stock market if your company goes belly up, your stock is worth zero. In real estate, if your property burns to the ground, you still have the land. If you want to make a save investment in the stock market, I recommend an S&P 500 Fitch and Moody's are two very reputable companies here in the States. That is all I have oh and on Friday I believe the Dow dropped like 300 points.

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  12. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    just make sure in your company 401K you never invest in the stock of the company you are working for.

    in fact I pretty much try to avoid all technology in my retirement because I work in technology. my thesis being that if technology does ok hopefully my chance having a job is alright too. so that's how i am invested in my field
    I just saw this post and I agree with most of what you said but there are exceptions to that. I would also avoid tech stock. Personally, I like commodities but I also go with the safe route the traditional S&P 500. It may not be the sexiest investment but your money will be safe. Now in certain companies, once you reach a certain level with the corporation, they will give you the option to buy stocks at a discounted rate so say for instance your company stock is worth $50 a share. If they are offering it to you at $40 a share, you are getting a 20% discount. I posted something before this about investing in long term but safe real estate. In So Cal, for the most part, if you get a piece of property in a good area, at least your property is desirable. You can rent that property out and pay off your 15 or 30 year loan amortization. Oh and 30 year loan amortizations are for suckers you pay $500,000 interest on a 100,000 house.
    I was fortunate and I was smart enough to save up my money so I bought a 3br 3 bath town house in Arcadia. I only have one property but it is paid off in cash in full. Now I am not going to lie, my folks helped me with over 1/2 of total cost and they took the liberty of paying about $75,000 in updating the kitchen and the bathrooms. Plus the house was built in the 80's so we had to fix the roof and make sure the plumbing and everything was squared away. Now it recently got appraised at $700,000. My dad a few years ago bought some property in LV in Summerlin (it's like the Beverly Hills of Vegas) and in the newly developed SW area. He bought a really nice town house a few years ago for $99,000 and he put another $15,000 in making it look nice but today it is at $160,000.
    He said he would sell it to me for $100,000. I am seriously considering it as a 2nd investment. It is super nice of him that he is giving it to me at such a huge discount but I guess that is what parents are for right?

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  14. #87
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    let's be clear i never said avoid tech.

    I said if you are looking for true diversification. go light on the sector that you work in. because working in that sector you are already heavily invested in it.

    so if you are petroleum engineer go light on oil investments.
    if you do pharma work go easy on drug makers.
    if you work for an automaker avoid industrials and automakers
    ...

    of course there is a theory out there that says you should invest in things you understand. the chances are
    the field that your job is in you understand the best.

    as i have said previously
    It depends what your strategy is (assuming you are young)

    Here are some general strategies assuming you are not using margin.
    grow inline with the market (buy stocks indexes using dollar cost averaging) just do it blindly.

    grow slightly above the market (buy sectors indexes at the "right time")


    grow way faster than the market. invest in very few companies that you understand big time.
    and then bet big on them. of course you can lose your pants with this (this happened to me with Bank of American Citi during recession)


    grow slightly below the market (buy and index fund that has very large established corporations that pay some dividend)

    grow your money but slightly above inflation rate( buy muni bonds, corporate bonds, non Semi Stable countries that yield reasonable bonds)

    preserve your cash at roughly inflation rate ( buying TIPS. Treasury inflation protected security) but you have dollar cost average as always.

    grow your money below inflation rate with virtually no risk (they are not exactly FDIC) (money market mutual funds )

    ---
    the problem with investing is most people don't know what they want to do. Their sentiment changes
    with all the noise in the market.

    frankly I have made really grave mistakes during my investing years and I have learned a lot from them.


    just keep in mind if you are making money. most of the time it is not because you are genius. There are hundreds of variables involved.

    most of the time either the market has gone to your desired direction. or your sector. the interest rates, big macro stuff can help too.

    but it also helps to know that something like 70% of trades in the market are done by robots.

  15. #88
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    as the yield for the Russian 10 years hits the 14%
    the central bank increases the Prime Rate by 6.5%.
    Imagine if Bernanke (excuse this new lady) tried do that.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-...lefttopstories

    MOSCOW—The battered ruble plunged to a record low against the dollar again Tuesday, as investors grew convinced that the Russian central bank’s surprise move overnight to jack up interest rates to 17% wouldn’t be enough to alleviate the pressure on the currency from falling oil prices and western sanctions.

    By early afternoon in Moscow, the ruble dropped sharply, reaching 80 to the dollar, a record low and a 15% decline from opening levels when it rallied briefly. At 4:30 p.m. local time, the dollar was trading around 73 rubles. However it regained some ground in the evening and narrowed its decline to 5.6% after Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said the government will introduce some “regulatory measures” at the forex market, but said it is not discussing any capital-control measures.

    His televised comments came after a meeting of the key financial and economic officials with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev . “The measures will be aimed at a better balance of demand and supply in the domestic currency market,” the minister said, adding the government will increase refinancing in foreign currency. Mr. Ulyukayev said the ruble is “undervalued” and “doesn’t correspond to current economic fundamentals,” but he declined to say at what level the ruble should trade.

    He didn’t provide any details on what measures the government or the Central Bank may take to stop the decline.

    “In a situation like this, an emerging market central bank has to ‘break the back’ of the market, by selling dollars on top of it,” said Luis Costa, emerging market analyst at Citigroup , in an internal note. “The central bank again shied away from aggressively selling dollars in a crucial moment to reaffirm its monetary and FX policies. This is essentially why the hikes didn’t work.”

    Traders said there was no indication yet that the central bank was intervening with sales of foreign currency, even as the dollar tested the record level of 80 rubles briefly. A further fall in crude oil prices on Tuesday also weighed on the ruble and Russian financial markets.

    In an interview with state television aired midday, Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said the market would need time to stabilize after the rate increase and dismissed proposals made by some in parliament that the government should impose capital controls.

    Mr. Ulyukayev supported Mrs. Nabiullina and said the Central Bank’s rate rise, possibly overdue, was a right thing and “together with the measures we are proposing will bear results.”

    Later, Deputy Chairman Sergei Shvetsov called the situation “critical,” the Interfax news agency reported. “At lot of [market] participants are in serious condition because of these events.”

    The choice the central bank had “was between very bad and very, very bad,” he said, noting that the bank could yet take more measures to stabilize the market.

  16. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    let's be clear i never said avoid tech.

    I said if you are looking for true diversification. go light on the sector that you work in. because working in that sector you are already heavily invested in it.

    so if you are petroleum engineer go light on oil investments.
    if you do pharma work go easy on drug makers.
    if you work for an automaker avoid industrials and automakers
    ...

    of course there is a theory out there that says you should invest in things you understand. the chances are
    the field that your job is in you understand the best.

    as i have said previously
    It depends what your strategy is (assuming you are young)

    Here are some general strategies assuming you are not using margin.
    grow inline with the market (buy stocks indexes using dollar cost averaging) just do it blindly.

    grow slightly above the market (buy sectors indexes at the "right time")


    grow way faster than the market. invest in very few companies that you understand big time.
    and then bet big on them. of course you can lose your pants with this (this happened to me with Bank of American Citi during recession)


    grow slightly below the market (buy and index fund that has very large established corporations that pay some dividend)

    grow your money but slightly above inflation rate( buy muni bonds, corporate bonds, non Semi Stable countries that yield reasonable bonds)

    preserve your cash at roughly inflation rate ( buying TIPS. Treasury inflation protected security) but you have dollar cost average as always.

    grow your money below inflation rate with virtually no risk (they are not exactly FDIC) (money market mutual funds )

    ---
    the problem with investing is most people don't know what they want to do. Their sentiment changes
    with all the noise in the market.

    frankly I have made really grave mistakes during my investing years and I have learned a lot from them.


    just keep in mind if you are making money. most of the time it is not because you are genius. There are hundreds of variables involved.

    most of the time either the market has gone to your desired direction. or your sector. the interest rates, big macro stuff can help too.

    but it also helps to know that something like 70% of trades in the market are done by robots.
    I get what you are saying now my bad and you are right. There is nothing wrong with putting a 10% cap on tech stocks or I have an engineering deg so if I get picked up by an Engineering corporation I will purchase stocks of that company because most of the time they offer it to you at a discounted rate.
    @bt I am SO TEMPTED right now to just throw down some play money like $5,000 on Crude Oil but my business professor told me something that stuck with me so I am going to save it for a rainy day. He said, "Before you go investing in the stock market or make any sort of investments, make sure you are debt free(Check) and make sure you have at least six months to one year of your net income saved up." Until I reach that goal, I am not going to make ANY more investments. I already have my hands full with a few properties in Vegas that(I'll be honest because I don't have that kind of capital) my dad helped me with. My goal is to buy a 2nd property in the Arcadia/SGV as an investment and to save up $150,000 for 3 yeas of law school(eff student loans and my gi bill is all used up). That is going to take me at least a decade but then I will be able to reevaluate my position and maybe invest in the stock market fellas but that is the skinny and that is my financial situation.
    I hope I am being smart here taking the Captain Conservative route.

  17. #90
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    Two things: your professor is right.
    everyone needs a rainy day fund. generally you should be able to pay six months of housing and food and other absolute essentials.
    that if you lose your job or become injured and cant work and the insurance company is giving you the run around.

    but if you are an Iranian kid and your parents are well off you could go out there and risk things big time. you might just get lucky or you might lose big time.
    but my recommendation is dip your toes in the water. That is invest with something like 10K over a period of 5 years
    see the markets ups and down. get a taste for volatility. understand your risk tolerance and then go off to the races.

    second:
    if i remember stock purchase programs normally do an averaging or the lowest price between two points.
    and normally it is done at a 10-15% discount to market.
    so it is not as risky. as long you get rid of it quick (but it is gone short term capital gains)
    which probably does not matter because you are wrong and you income is not too high yet.

    more important than your stock purchase program
    is to contribute maximum to your 401K (or other retirement programs)

    some people think well my work place only matches the first 2% or the no more than 5K. so that's all I am gone contribute.
    but if you look carefully at IRS' website you can contribute up something like 17K of your income to 401K.
    and that is basically deferring taxes to when you are old.

    if you have enough income and you can forget about your retirement money until you are 60 years old.
    contribute as much as you can and pay less taxes.

    but keep in mind if you ever need to access the money before you are 60 you will pay a 10% penalty.

 

 

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