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  1. #121
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    GLD will have a better chance if the Greek and Germans Butt head in a serious manner.

    It seems like Germany is for now intending to compromise.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    GLD will have a better chance if the Greek and Germans Butt head in a serious manner.

    It seems like Germany is for now intending to compromise.
    Are you talking about GLD the gold ETF or Gilead Sciences (GILD)?

  3. #123
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    my bad bro.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


  4. #124
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    Great day for GE up almost 8%. I wish I had more shares.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zob Ahan View Post
    Great day for GE up almost 8%. I wish I had more shares.
    Was this solely based on their decision to shed some $300 billion in assets next year? Sounds like a huge overreaction by the market. Those were not losing assets. They were simply a burden considering the regulations they brought. Time to sell if you got some and buy back when the craze is over.


  6. #126
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    GE since 2009 has been divesting in non-core businesses (finance ,...).

    Their strategy is to be left with a whole lot of power generation.

    industrial, locomotives

    Aviation,

    Oil and Gas.

    Long Term (20 years) I like them. There is a huge barrier of entry into their business.
    “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”


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  8. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChaharMahal View Post
    GE since 2009 has been divesting in non-core businesses (finance ,...).

    Their strategy is to be left with a whole lot of power generation.

    industrial, locomotives

    Aviation,

    Oil and Gas.

    Long Term (20 years) I like them. There is a huge barrier of entry into their business.

    BINGO!!!!!! I follow the Aviation business very closely and their engines are second to none.

  9. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Was this solely based on their decision to shed some $300 billion in assets next year? Sounds like a huge overreaction by the market. Those were not losing assets. They were simply a burden considering the regulations they brought. Time to sell if you got some and buy back when the craze is over.
    Getting rid of GE finance is the best decision but a little too late. Now they can focus on their bread & butter which is power turbines and jet engines and stuff like that. I wouldn't sell until Immelt announces his retirement. There will be some profit taking next week but long term the stock looks good. It doesn't hurt to get 3.5% dividends in the meanwhile.

  10. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    I don't believe for even a minute that oil is a story of supply and demand. It's a completely rigged scenario just like Gold. Supply and demand don't apply to oil, diamonds, gold and a few other things.

    Neither the actual demand nor the predicted demand for oil have changed by even 5% in the past 6 months. Supply has been fairly steady as well. The drop in oil is almost purely manufactured.
    I know this post is little bit old. But I disagree! Oil just like other natural resources does apply to supply and demand rule. When the oil started to drop many came out and said it is Saudis and Americans manipulating the market in order to hurt Russian and Iranian economy however lets look at it in this perspective. When Chinese manufacturing has been dropping dramatically because of Western European and North American middle class has been ruined and have no money to spend it is causing excess amount of products in the market that could not be sold and Chinese because of that won't produce as much. When Chinese manufacturing drops then they won't buy as much natural resources including oil cutting demand (easing in their consumption) and with more countries producing oil now the supply has been high causing price war which is why the price has dropped so much. It is not only oil but Copper, Iron ore, Zinc, ect... that has dropped dramatically. Global economy is in crisis and it won't make sense for US to strangle its own economy to hurt the Russian, 20% of US GDP is related to Gas and Oil production and the Parshall oil field in North Dakota is Hydraulic Fracturing which is an expensive way of production that needs the oil price to be at least above $60 per barrel in order to make profit, it won't make sense for US to strangle its own economy to hurt the Russians. However Saudi didn't help the issue by not producing less but the drop of oil price is much bigger than some rigged game but it is global economy at crisis. There is no future in oil and gas anymore they will eventually will get replaced by cleaner energy soon or later!
    Having said all these China seems like buying more oil now because of the prices are low but before that they were cutting in oil import. Most of the oil they are buying is mostly for reserve purpose rather than manufacturing purpose which is going to have the effect on oil market which will go around $50 per barrel and hardly grow higher than $60 per barrel.
    Last edited by byebyenow; 11-04-2015 at 05:32 AM.
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  11. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by byebyenow View Post
    I know this post is little bit old. But I disagree! Oil just like other natural resources
    Nope.

    Oil is a highly speculated commodity. The price of oil is more affected by its 'perceived' value than the actual physical demand for it. Much like Gold, oil is used as a hedge by many investors (small, medium and big). It's understandable too, since almost all the oil available in the world is already accounted for and priced into the energy market.

    The supply and demand rule only adds to the volatility of oil price. It doesn't define it.

    Due to high levels of production in North American in the past decade, the amount of physical oil stored in storage is visibly high, and this has got big investment firms worried. Again, the ratio of demand for oil and its cumulative production haven't changed much, but the visible glut has forced 'investors' to react.

    For years, no one cared about the amount of stored oil because oil was not speculated upon as much as it is today, but with data so freely available these days, every small investor and their mother can check the level of stored oil in the market and act accordingly. That's why supply and demand doesn't define oil's price. Investor's behavior does.


  12. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    Due to high levels of production in North American in the past decade, the amount of physical oil stored in storage is visibly high, and this has got big investment firms worried. Again, the ratio of demand for oil and its cumulative production haven't changed much, but the visible glut has forced 'investors' to react.
    All you got to do is to look out the numbers coming out of China; the growth is at its slowest pace for 25 years, the production is falling back to recession level of 2008 and 2009 level. They don't use as much energy as before they are just storing them and now there are reports that China reserve tanks are full and there are no room to store anymore. The fact that China growth has dropped to 6.8% from an estimated 7.4% last year the slowest expansion since 1990 is deleveraging and overcapacity of number of industries. Consumption growth this year for China was only 2.5% comparing it to 16.8% of the boom year of 2004. IEA's forecast for last year shows cutting as much as 500,000 barrels per day from demand totals for 2017-2019. Excess capacity in many industries, most notably coal and steel, filters through to lessened oil demand growth explain the cause of curbed demand growth. Add this to the slowdown of Japan, Europe and India the are serious consequences for demand growth of oil. Now we have China trying to push strong on sustainable energy and use of other fuels for the consumption of transportation causing even lesser consumption of oil in the future. The fact that OPEC didn't agreed on curbing the oil production and the demand seems much weaker due to weak global economy, it is in fact showing the oil market like other market is related to supply and demand rules as well.
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  13. #132
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    it is in fact showing the oil market like other market is related to supply and demand rules as well.
    No argument there. It's just far from being defined by it.

    The price of iron, copper, lumber, water and almost all other commodities is directly defined by supply and demand. Oil, Gold and to a degree Silver are the exception.

    The price of oil could shoot up to 5 times current levels with minimal change in supply and demand. The speculated demand for oil reaches very far into the future compared to other commodities. The speculated supply for oil is highly transparent too. No one can surprise the world with a new massive supply boost. The volatility of price is purely driven by speculation on near-term 'shortage'. When investors determine the price of something instead of users, supply and demand becomes a secondary factor.


  14. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    The speculated demand for oil reaches very far into the future compared to other commodities.
    No argument there neither! That is why the global economy is based on oil. And with slow down in the economy there is huge relation to price of oil recently. However we are living in the world of change and there are other alternative in the picture as they are becoming a growing trend and taking its toll on oil market. Of course we have powerful players in oil market that are not happy about this but the reality of future are pushing us toward better alternative. This factor itself can have a huge impact on volatility value.
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  15. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by byebyenow View Post
    No argument there neither! That is why the global economy is based on oil. And with slow down in the economy there is huge relation to price of oil recently. However we are living in the world of change and there are other alternative in the picture as they are becoming a growing trend and taking its toll on oil market. Of course we have powerful players in oil market that are not happy about this but the reality of future are pushing us toward better alternative. This factor itself can have a huge impact on volatility value.
    I honestly don't see oil being replaced in any meaningful way. I don't know what percentage of oil is used for household consumption (including personal vehicles), but at the industrial levels, there's nothing to hope for as far as alternatives. Once you reach into thousands of horsepowers and heavy lifting, there's no alternative to oil. All the talk about "alternative energy" is nothing but a stupid hype. There simply is no alternative. Cheap and mobile nuclear technology doesn't exist. Wind power is a joke.

    And the only viable alternative even worth mentioning so far is solar electric which turns into a question of "Are huge, heavy and expensive batteries and panels worth the hassle?". No one can answer that question yet and frankly as someone uses both solar and gas power, I would say they're NOT. They're a pain in the ass and very expensive (imagine what they become at the industrial level).

    Oil is "the shit" for many many decades and possibly centuries to come.


  16. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bache Tehroon View Post
    I honestly don't see oil being replaced in any meaningful way. I don't know what percentage of oil is used for household consumption (including personal vehicles), but at the industrial levels, there's nothing to hope for as far as alternatives. Once you reach into thousands of horsepowers and heavy lifting, there's no alternative to oil. All the talk about "alternative energy" is nothing but a stupid hype. There simply is no alternative. Cheap and mobile nuclear technology doesn't exist. Wind power is a joke.

    And the only viable alternative even worth mentioning so far is solar electric which turns into a question of "Are huge, heavy and expensive batteries and panels worth the hassle?". No one can answer that question yet and frankly as someone uses both solar and gas power, I would say they're NOT. They're a pain in the ass and very expensive (imagine what they become at the industrial level).

    Oil is "the shit" for many many decades and possibly centuries to come.
    You really are underestimating the renewable energy. There was time when the first steam powered Lokomotive came out nobody thought it would one day replace the animal power. When the first car came around it was the alternative transportation and soon it took over horses and camels. There was times nobody ever thought coal would be in trouble, now it is clear there is not much great future with them. When the first hybrid car came around nobody thought the market last longer than few years but now even we have hybrid S-class. At the beginning electric cars were the joke now Tesla was the most successful American car company last year. Toyota just came out with their new Hydrogen cell powered car and already is one of the fastest growing trends in the car market.
    These are the stats of US energy consumption in 2011, which is the biggest energy consumer in the world. Consumption of petroleum at Industrial level is 34% of total industrial energy consumption, Natural gas about 35%, electricity generation about 14%, biomass about 10%. Total industrial consumption of petroleum is only 27% of total consumption of petroleum in US. About 71% of petroleum consumption is at transportation sector. Which is about 93% of total energy source for transportation in US. Transportation also is 38% of total energy consumption of the country and industrial total energy consumption is about 33% of total energy consumption of the country and residential and and commercial consist of 29% of total energy consumption. So total Petroleum consumption of industrial level is only 11.4% of total energy consumption in the US while 35.6% of total energy consumption of US is usage of petroleum in transportation. That means majority of consumption of Petroleum is at transportation sector mostly personal vehicles. With right investments and new developments in science and technology there are tons of new ideas and new fuels for transportation. You got to look at what some European countries specially Germany are doing with biofuel in regards of their transportation. You are looking at new electric and hydrogen cell cars coming out every year and are the very fast growing trends. There are so many interesting technologies are coming out in transportation sector such as compressed air vehicles (CAV) and many more. Also development of public transportation like the one in Europe will also help in reducing use of gasoline/disel powered vehicles. Practice of Avgas to reduce the petroleum consumption of aviation transportation is also growing. There are also alternative replacement in industrial level such as new development of biomass and Ethanol, MAGIC (Magnesium injection cycle) technology, new usage of different technologies of Hydrogen energy and ect...
    If you think wind energy has no future and is a hype you have to look at the statistics. In 1996 wind electricity production of the world was around 10 TWH in 2012 it was around 520 TWH which is the significant growth, when wind energy started only in few countries now they have been installed in 84 different countries and some European residential communities electricity consumption are only based on wind power. In 2014 Denmark generated 40% of its electricity by wind power which is significant. The annual market for wind continue to increase at an estimate rate of 37% following 32% growth in 2006. In terms of economic value, the wind energy sector has become an important player in energy market, wind power market penetration is expected to reach 3.35% by 2013 and 8% by 2018. Both Solar energy and wind energy are extremely popular because of economic benefits in the long term, installation of these equipment could be costly at first but very beneficial in the long term.
    If you can remember the cost of LED lights were much more 20 years ago than now, the cost of solar panels and batteries also would drop over time and you say it is not worth it I say it definitely is over few years of installment you would get your money back. Germany has passed the law that made all of its government building to be zero emission building which means they are only powered by Hydro, Wind and solar energy. They are already in process of building all of their new residential and commercial building zero efficient too.
    Both US and China have great potential in hydro energy as well and could produce large portion of their electricity by hydroelectricity. Paraguay hydro energy provide 75% of its electricity needs and about 90% of electricity consumption in Brazil.
    Also there are new ways of nuclear powers that are much cleaner and safer such as Thorium-based nuclear power. Also other new technologies such as Geothermal are growing extremely well and the research and development of this field could be the new future of energy production. Most of this technologies are very new and young and by time it will grow and eventually replace coal and natural gas in sourcing electricity generation production which is 17.7% of energy sources of entire US, and source of 42.3% for residential energy consumption, 52.4% of commercial energy consumption and 14% of industrial energy consumption in the US. With more development of wind and solar there are rooms of growth for source of electricity for residential and commercial energy consumption when the cost of KWH will be cheaper than the one from Natural Gas which is about 40% of energy consumption of residential and commercial sectors in the US. With both coal and natural gas are about 65.7% of source of energy for electricity generation in the US there are a lot of more room for growth for alternative sources for electricity generation all you got to do to look at what some countries such as Denmark, Brazil, Germany, Italy, ect.. are dong in these regards. There are also growth in these practices in China and US as well but hasn't triggered like the one in Europe and South America and with amount of money countries such as US, Canada, Japan and western Europe have there shouldn't be any trouble in investing of solar and wind energy. It really has been a political matter in countries such as US, Canada, China and Russia to insist of using mass amount of coal and fossil fuel instead of better alternatives.
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