ولی فقیه امریکا!

Oct 18, 2002
11,593
2
#1

محض اطلاع این بابا ازامریکا دکترا گرفته! مرده شورببرد آن دانشگاهی را که به کسی که معنی "گراند ژوری" را نمی فهمد دکترا داده!

http://rajanews.com/detail.asp?id=148634

حجت الاسلام آقاتهراني دبيركل جبهه پايداري، در گفتگو با رجانيوز با اشاره به خاطره اي از زمان تحصيل خود در كشور امريكا، از وجود مكانيزمي همچون مكانيزم ولايت فقيه در اين كشور به عنوان فصل الخطاب اختلافات خبر داد
.
آقاتهراني در اين باره گفت: نوع حکومت ما ولایی است، یعنی مقام ولایت فقیه در رأس حاکمیت است و قوه مقننه و قضائیه و مجریه در عرض هم و مادون ایشان هستند. وجود مبارک ولایت، به نظام مشروعیت می بخشد، یعنی اگر این نباشد، حکومت مشروعیت ندارد. مثل امریکا که چنین چیزی نیست. البته آنها هم یک چیزی به اسم دارند، اما نه به این شکل. ژوری بزرگ در رأس حاکمیت است، هم بر رئیس جمهور، هم بر قوه قضائیه و هم بر قوه مقننه تفوق دارد
.
وقتی امریکا بودم یادم هست. دوران کلینتون بود که ما آنجا بودیم. آقای کلینتون در مورد ارتباط با آن خانم مشکل پیدا کرد که یهودی بود و اول گفت: «ارتباطی نداشتیم» و بعد معلوم شد که داشت. در مجلس شان بحث شد که آیا رئیس جمهوری که دروغ می گوید می تواند در رأس حاکمیت باشد یا نه؟ می توانیم به او اعتماد کنیم یا نه؟ پس اعتماد نمایندگان از ایشان سلب می شود و رأی اعتمادی که داده اند به هم می خورد و دیگر رئیس جمهور نیست. این بحث در مجلس کنگره و سنا مطرح شد
.
جوری شد که نتوانستند به توافق برسند که بالاخره چه کار کنند. بنا شد حرف آخر زده شود که کنار برود و انتخابات شود یا باشد تا دوره اش تمام شود؟ من آن شب منزل استاد راهنمایم بودم. در زیرزمین خانه اش کتابخانه ای داشت و آنجا را به من داده بود که مطالعه و کار کنم. گفت: «نرو نیویورک. همین جا بمان و مطالعه کن و درس بخوان»، چون از آنجا تا نیویورک سه ساعت راه بود
.
می رفتم آنجا و برای درس خواندن و مطالعه جای خوبی بود. ساعت نه شب بود که دیدم دارد فریاد می زند و مرا صدا می کند. پریدم بالا ببینم چه کارم دارد؟ گفت: «ولی فقیه شان می خواهد حرف آخر را بزند. مرتضی! بیا گوش بده». پرسیدم: «مگر اینها هم ولی فقیه دارند؟» جواب داد: «بله! خیال می کنی فقط شما دارید؟ اینها هم دارند». اولین بار که می شنیدم آنها هم می توانند ولی فقیه داشته باشند. پرسیدم: «کیست؟ چطوری؟» گفت: «بنشین گوش بده تا بعد». نشستم و دیدم سخنگوی ژوری بزرگ آمد و گفت: «اختلاف پیش آمده و بنا شده است حرف آخر را بزنیم. آقای کلینتون تا آخر دوره ریاست جمهوری***اش رئیس جمهور باقی خواهد ماند. نقطهموقعی که می خواند کلمه نقطه را هم گفت. جالب بود که فردا روزنامه های مهم شان را که خواندم، دیدم همه شان این جمله را تيتر کرده و آن بالا زده اند و تمام!

 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#2
All of these comical attempts are nothing but restoring an Ideology that has been lost. And as we know, the first step of a regime breakdown is losing its ideological justification. It was of course, known as a failure by many people in Iran. However, many regime officials know it now as well. These people are trying to revitalize their pathetic ideology in the minds of their own people, and in their own minds as well. Daran goole khodeshun mizanan babakhta. Yani ta in had tabloe shode dige.

They are just on life-support, waiting to be put in grave.
 
#3
They are just on life-support, waiting to be put in grave.
Not by a long stretch. They are actually very much self-reviving at this point and will continue to thrive for at least a few more decades. If you think this regime is on life-support you're living in a bubble of dreams.

Save for a full-scale NATO ground invasion with the goal of replacing the regime, Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#4
Not by a long stretch. They are actually very much self-reviving at this point and will continue to thrive for at least a few more decades. If you think this regime is on life-support you're living in a bubble of dreams.

Save for a full-scale NATO ground invasion with the goal of replacing the regime, Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon.
Based on what studies? I am telling this because I am kind of familiar with the process of democratization and regime-breakdown (due to studies).

Also, recently I have seen you coming with numbers such as 40 million would attend public hangings. Or, at least half of Azeris support breakaway from Iran. Where do you get this numbers from?

It seems to me that many people have totally become pessimistic about Iran in the last two years. The truth is that many of us have. But That does not mean that we are right.
In fact signs and facts more point out to the contrary! the only advantage the regime has, that damned black poison which serves them to sponsor suppression. As Nasrin Sotoudeh's husband correctly said today:

همسر نسرین ستوده: از فشارها خسته نشویم آزادی ارزان به دست نمی آید

http://kaleme.com/1391/11/03/klm-130352/

Pessimism has no place in political struggle. Moreover, saying things like "save for a full-scale NATO ground invasion with the goal of replacing the regime, Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon", is not only dangerous but it would also make people to disbelief in themselves.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#5
Of course this is another opinion. We certainly do not know what really is going on as we do not have facts:

کمی*** با خود منصف تر باشیم، مردم فقط همان چند صد نفر نیستند…


دیدن عکس***های دو جوان زورگیری که در حال اعدام شدن بودند دل هر انسان با وجدانی را میازارد. اما دیدن عکس کسانی*** که به تماشای صحنه اجرای حکم غیر انسانی*** اعدام رفته بودند شاید بیشتر دل و روح را آزار میداد! چرا که آنان هیچ اجباری برای آمدن نداشتند و به میل خود تماشاچی*** این نمایش زشت و پلید حکومتی شده بودند… در این شکی*** نیست.

اما به خاطر داشته باشیم که همه مردم مانند آن چند صد نفر نیستند. بلکه از آمدن به این چنین نمایش هایی*** بیزارند و شبانه روز آرزو میکنند کابوس این حکومت ظلم و جور و تزویر و شکنجه و ***قتل هر چه زودتر پایان یابد. حکومتی که برای مقابله با بزه کاری***ها و ناهنجاری***های اجتماعی که خود با سوء مدیریت و سیاست***های فاجعه بار، باعث و بانی*** آنان بوده است، راه حلی*** جز زندان و شلاق و ***قتل ارائه نمیدهد! آری هموطن، کمی*** با خود منصفتر باشیم، مردم فقط همان چند صد نفر نیستند!

http://melliun.org/iran/14577
 

Ardesheer

Bench Warmer
Jun 30, 2005
1,580
1
#6
As I have said before, I give IRI 2-4 years before people end this regime. If it does not happen in the next 4 years, then it means I have to do something about it myself.:slowz:
 

shahinc

Legionnaire
May 8, 2005
6,745
1
#7
Not by a long stretch. They are actually very much self-reviving at this point and will continue to thrive for at least a few more decades. If you think this regime is on life-support you're living in a bubble of dreams.

Save for a full-scale NATO ground invasion with the goal of replacing the regime, Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon.
Nicely Said. After those decades, then it will be turn for the Sepah to control everything ( just like ex KGB officials are doing it in Russia) and under a supposed more open society, run their mafia of power for many more years.
 
#8
Based on what studies? I am telling this because I am kind of familiar with the process of democratization and regime-breakdown (due to studies).

Also, recently I have seen you coming with numbers such as 40 million would attend public hangings. Or, at least half of Azeris support breakaway from Iran. Where do you get this numbers from?
The key is to stay in touch with the street. I might not live there, but I have the advantage of having gone through the Islamic Republic education system. It's my classmates and neighborhood buddies who are running the country and will be doing so for a very long time. I know how things work in Iran. I could easily fit myself in with the hardliner crowd because I know their language, their thinking and their survival tactics. They will destroy any "peaceful" opposition with relative ease.

The uprisings of 1379 and 1388 came close to causing cracks because there were elements from my generation in them who knew exactly what it takes. Unfortunately, the "know-it-all" hoards of "idiots" (many of them women), caused the movement to become pussified and destroyed.

Trust me aziz. There's a reason you and I are living abroad. It's not because Iran's economy sucks or there's no social freedom. It's because you can never learn what it takes to thrive in Iran, and I could never allow myself to thrive with those learnings.

Iran is the land of opportunity for those who learned the Islamic Republic way. I learned it. It's damn tempting to use those learnings as well. I just can't do it (for whatever reason).

Most people on this forum are damn out of touch with the realities of this system. They think it's supported by outside forces or endless money. It's supported by neither. It's got ideological support among the strongest, most productive and healthiest layer of the society. Push comes to shove, half of those against Islamic Republic will choose to support it. That's not something to ignore. It's what keeps this regime alive.
 
#9
feyenoord,
With all respect, your studies mean squat. You can study revolutions and changes in history but don't ever think you have a greater machinary for studying than IR. In fact the IR has amassed great resources to ensure its survival for at least few more decades. They have studied not only the history of Iran, but the history of all other major and minor revolutions and know exactly what to do and what not to do. Most importantly, they know our people. They know what makes them tick and what makes them shut the fuck up! Don't ever underestimate the regime, and never think everything that happens is accidental.

Have you been to Iran recently? I have said this before to you: every time I go to Iran and meet the people and the situation, I become less and less optimistic of about any change for the better. If anything, we are regressing.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#10
feyenoord,
With all respect, your studies mean squat. You can study revolutions and changes in history but don't ever think you have a greater machinary for studying than IR. In fact the IR has amassed great resources to ensure its survival for at least few more decades. They have studied not only the history of Iran, but the history of all other major and minor revolutions and know exactly what to do and what not to do. Most importantly, they know our people. They know what makes them tick and what makes them shut the fuck up! Don't ever underestimate the regime, and never think everything that happens is accidental.

Have you been to Iran recently? I have said this before to you: every time I go to Iran and meet the people and the situation, I become less and less optimistic of about any change for the better. If anything, we are regressing.
With all due respect, your opinion is irrelevant. You can be as pessimistic as you want. But try to look at patterns, history and development of democracy. People like you should never even follow politics if you are so pessimistic. Lack of knowledge is what has screwed us in the past. These are not my studies btw. There is tons written about it and tons of research has been made on it. Try to literate yourself and you might become more hopeful. If everyone would have thought like you than all those political prisoners should have abandon their struggle.
 
#11
With all due respect, your opinion is irrelevant. You can be as pessimistic as you want. But try to look at patterns, history and development of democracy. People like you should never even follow politics if you are so pessimistic. Lack of knowledge is what has screwed us in the past. These are not my studies btw. There is tons written about it and tons of research has been made on it. Try to literate yourself and you might become more hopeful. If everyone would have thought like you than all those political prisoners should have abandon their struggle.
Oh dear! :)

I maybe illiterate, but I am not fooling myself. I'd suggest you literate yourself about the history of Iran itself a little more.

Patterns and development of democracy where? You can't apply Western standards to the middle east and draw the same conclusions for various very simple reasons. Find out what these are for yourself.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#13
This regime will fall, there's no doubt about that, but whether it's a year from now or decades from now, it's really hard to call at this point. I think most of us agree that 3 years ago we thought the regime's days were numbered and there was again glimmer of hope in October of last year because of the Rial plunge. But they somehow manage to pull out of all these crises or at least tag along in spite of them.

At this point, I also tend to lean toward "foreign intervention" as the only possible trigger or catalyst to make this happen, although I don't think it would require or come down to a full invasion (ground invasion) - I think an aerial campaign would and at some point will do the job, by weakening IR enough for internal forces to do the rest.

Having said that, the management problem is symptomatic of the IR pushing unqualified people to the top and it seems to be getting worse with every passing decade, so unless they get some help from Emam-Zaman, it's really hard to imagine they can continue to push the economy along at this pace and in this format for much longer, even without any foreign intervention. On that note, I do agree with not being pessimistic and at least holding some hope as the least we can do from afar.
 
#14
This regime will fall, there's no doubt about that, but whether it's a year from now or decades from now, it's really hard to call at this point. I think most of us agree that 3 years ago we thought the regime's days were numbered and there was again glimmer of hope in October of last year because of the Rial plunge. But they somehow manage to pull out of all these crises or at least tag along in spite of them.
Berhoujan, anyone who thought the "regime"'s days were numbered in 1388 would be naive. Even those taking bullets on the street did not have the illusion of changing the regime. They were simply fighting for more control over their own lives. Mousavi's election would not have meant a regime change. Even if I.R's thugs had failed to suppress the uprising, the most that could've been achieved was a re-election.

There's absolutely no possible way for a true revolution to happen again in Iran. The one in 1979 was a one-off thing that miraculously happened because the army stepped aside. The chances of that happening again are as good as me winning the lottery twice in one year.

Khamenei will die and certain things will change, but the Islamic hardliners will continue to thrive. They have enough decentralized money and power to run an empire. No force in the world is able to eliminate them from the equation. Heck, a bunch of poor rag-heads in Afghanistan have managed to comfortably survive against a full invasion by the world's most powerful army. What the hell can be done about a well-organized oil-rich army of Islamic hardliners with international recognition? Not much.

The only quick solution to bringing I.R to its demise is a costly war that essentially rids Sepah of its belongings. Throughout the process, millions and millions of Iranians (our own families) will suffer irreversible damages and the country will go through a hibernation period with civil unrest and a catastrophic economy (similar to Iraq's in the 90s). I don't think this will happen. No side is in favor of it (thankfully).

We'll just have to accept that in our lifetime, Iran will be the nurturing ground for at least a few more generations of Islamic hardliners. They will continue to hold power until they're confronted with heavy force and suffer defeat. That's the story of Islam since day 1.
 

artavile

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2002
3,660
2
MD, USA
#15
The only thing that has been a constant throughout Iran’s long history is the unpredictability factor. I tend to agree with Bi-honar as many of us thought IRR's days are outnumbered during the previous presidential selection. I don’t think anyone can say for sure how much longer this regime will be around, all it takes is for something (typically unplanned event) to start the ball rolling again. Knowing that we still have a large number of misinformed individuals actively dedicated and committed to saving IRR as well as an equal number of plain mozdoors (for lack of better term) with no real attachments (ideological or other wise, of course other than financial) to this regime. IMO, it should not take decades but perhaps a few more years (at least that's what I hope).
p.s., unfortunetly as we Iranians are painfully aware of, a “change” will not necessarily translate into something better.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#17
Soroosh jaan, honestly I can't say that I don't share the pessimism, especially the for the past few months and since nothing significant happened after the Rial plunge. But if the events of 2009 showed, the discourse is there, suppressed and under the surface yes, but it's not like people learnt to be okay with things that they weren't okay with then and things have only got worse since then. So the assumption that the discourse is more than in 2009 would not be completely inaccurate. Don't you agree?

Now, the only question becomes whether that discourse would translate onto something meaningful and if so how and why. I agree with Hamid's "unpredictability" factor, not just in Iran's case, but with most revolutions in history. Who would have thought 2 years ago that an event as seemingly insignificant as a street vendor setting himself ablaze in Tunisia would have such wide ranging repercussions throughout the middle East and North Africa and result in regime changes and civil wars in so many countries? Based on that, I don't think anything is completely out of the realm of possibilities, even if it doesn't look probable at the moment.

But I agree with you that IR is still in relatively good shape and easily controlling the direction of events at the moment - without a doubt in much better shape than the Taliban. We've also become a little to too numb as a people and nation, comfortably numb in fact, and that's definitely working against us. And what's holding things back and prolonging change is of course the other issue Hamid brought up, that change isn't necessarily for the better - at least in the Iranian mind set. That's gotta be our worst enemy at the moment IMHO.
 
Last edited:
Feb 4, 2005
16,639
1,256
#19
Whoever tries to predict Iran's political future is going to be disappointed. You just can't predict the unpredictable.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#20
Oh dear! :)

I maybe illiterate, but I am not fooling myself. I'd suggest you literate yourself about the history of Iran itself a little more.

Patterns and development of democracy where? You can't apply Western standards to the middle east and draw the same conclusions for various very simple reasons. Find out what these are for yourself.
Hey, I apologize for having been rude. There is no point in answering the questions though since you have made up your mind regarding this issue.

I dont share your pessimism, neither am I trying to be unrealistic.