ولی فقیه امریکا!

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#21
The key is to stay in touch with the street. I might not live there, but I have the advantage of having gone through the Islamic Republic education system. It's my classmates and neighborhood buddies who are running the country and will be doing so for a very long time. I know how things work in Iran. I could easily fit myself in with the hardliner crowd because I know their language, their thinking and their survival tactics. They will destroy any "peaceful" opposition with relative ease.

The uprisings of 1379 and 1388 came close to causing cracks because there were elements from my generation in them who knew exactly what it takes. Unfortunately, the "know-it-all" hoards of "idiots" (many of them women), caused the movement to become pussified and destroyed.

Trust me aziz. There's a reason you and I are living abroad. It's not because Iran's economy sucks or there's no social freedom. It's because you can never learn what it takes to thrive in Iran, and I could never allow myself to thrive with those learnings.

Iran is the land of opportunity for those who learned the Islamic Republic way. I learned it. It's damn tempting to use those learnings as well. I just can't do it (for whatever reason).

Most people on this forum are damn out of touch with the realities of this system. They think it's supported by outside forces or endless money. It's supported by neither. It's got ideological support among the strongest, most productive and healthiest layer of the society. Push comes to shove, half of those against Islamic Republic will choose to support it. That's not something to ignore. It's what keeps this regime alive.
Funny that I have friends here who were part of the regime as well. One of then has connection to all the way on top and they are saying exactly the opposite to what you are saying.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#22
Funny that I have friends here who were part of the regime as well. One of then has connection to all the way on top and they are saying exactly the opposite to what you are saying.
It's because they're left out. It's natural to want to portray your hopes as the yet to be realized future.

We all feel left out. We all want to believe what we hope will actually materialize. I too want to live a prosperous and free life in my place of birth.

Will it happen? Most likely not.

This doesn't make me pessimis. A pessimist often adds an unfounded degree of negativity to reality. What unfounded level of negativity do you find in my opinion in contrast to reality? What is it in my posts that you think is made up?
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#23
It's because they're left out. It's natural to want to portray your hopes as the yet to be realized future.

We all feel left out. We all want to believe what we hope will actually materialize. I too want to live a prosperous and free life in my place of birth.

Will it happen? Most likely not.

This doesn't make me pessimis. A pessimist often adds an unfounded degree of negativity to reality. What unfounded level of negativity do you find in my opinion in contrast to reality? What is it in my posts that you think is made up?
No one is saying that it will happen tomorrow, giving timeline is unrealistic. So, will it happen? The factors are there. As I said, the oil factor is very helpful for IR (that is the only advantage IR has).


As for your questions, if I want to answer in all honesty, yes you seem to me one of the most negative persons when it comes to Iran. As an example, I said about the fact that you say 40 million people in Iran will go and watch executions or at least half of the Azeri population are in favor of segregation.
Sorry dear, but that is my honest opinion.

Look, here in Auckland, theere has been an influx of Iranian students at the postgraduate and phd level. This is due to some sort of agreement between Iranian universities and NZ universities (not sure exactly what is the deal). However, I have seen many many students in the past year. Some of who were in the front-row of protests during the green the movement. Not only that, many of them have been activists. When you talk to them, they are quite realistic about it. While most them believe that IR will not go away tomorrow, they also do not believe that they can rule Iran (at least the way do) for much longer.

Education has been dreadful for IR. Due to education values of a huge part of population has changed and is changing (even the values of traditional classes and their new demands are changing). There are many other factors as well, which were not present before.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#24
As for your questions, if I want to answer in all honesty, yes you seem to me one of the most negative persons when it comes to Iran. As an example, I said about the fact that you say 40 million people in Iran will go and watch executions or at least half of the Azeri population are in favor of segregation.
Sorry dear, but that is my honest opinion.
Again you call me negative. What seems negative in your view is not necessarily a negative for others. I.R's rule is not a negative thing for all Iranians. It's a major negative for you and I, but for most people, it's just a reality of life not worth the time and effort to investigate.

When I say 40 million people in Iran will go watch executions, I'm not commenting on their opinion about executions. I mean if there's an execution happening somewhere nearby, at least half of Iran's population will be curious and unethical enough to go and watch it. This doesn't make them VAHSHI people. It makes them average Iranians. Iranians are very unethical people.

When I say more than half of Azeris would favor separation, I don't mean if there's a democratic voting system in place, half of them would go and vote for Azarbaijan to become independent. NO! Things like this are rarely decided in a democratic fashion. I'm saying the majority of Azeris would choose independence if it was the only way to part ways with the current state of affairs. I'm sure most other factions would do the same, but the reality is, Azarbaijan's separatists are much more likely to succeed than others.





Look, here in Auckland, theere has been an influx of Iranian students at the postgraduate and phd level. This is due to some sort of agreement between Iranian universities and NZ universities (not sure exactly what is the deal). However, I have seen many many students in the past year. Some of who were in the front-row of protests during the green the movement. Not only that, many of them have been activists. When you talk to them, they are quite realistic about it. While most them believe that IR will not go away tomorrow, they also do not believe that they can rule Iran (at least the way do) for much longer.
What is "ruling Iran"? These students you talk about are the same people that thought they could bring the regime down by yelling Allah Akbar from their rooftops.

Have you ever paused and thought about what would have happened if the unrest of 2009 had escalated further? Do you think the regime would have hesitated to unleash Sepah's full force on people? Have you ever had images of tanks roaming your old neighborhood in Iran? Do you know what it takes to overcome squads of brutal Sepahi soldiers with their machine-guns pointed in every direction? Do you think air strikes on Tehran's neighborhoods would be something this regime would not attempt?

Have you been following Syria? Do you really think I'm being negative?


Education has been dreadful for IR. Due to education values of a huge part of population has changed and is changing. There are many other factors as well, which were not present before.
Some values have changed. Some of the old habits are indeed dying, but superstition and religious views are as rampant as they ever were (if not more).

This was evident in the uprisings of 2009. Even the youth fighting for their lives on the streets were hugely superstitious and religious. I.R's education system has come to fruition. Maybe not to their full liking, but it has worked.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#25
When I say 40 million people in Iran will go watch executions, I'm not commenting on their opinion about executions. I mean if there's an execution happening somewhere nearby, at least half of Iran's population will be curious and unethical enough to go and watch it. This doesn't make them VAHSHI people. It makes them average Iranians. Iranians are very unethical people.
I do agree that Iranians are very unethical people (but not in things like public executions). Furthermore, they are quite khodkhah and khodmehvar. Many Iranians are like this. However, being curious is different than giving comment on it. Based on the second you understand people's values.

When I say more than half of Azeris would favor separation, I don't mean if there's a democratic voting system in place, half of them would go and vote for Azarbaijan to become independent. NO! Things like this are rarely decided in a democratic fashion. I'm saying the majority of Azeris would choose independence if it was the only way to part ways with the current state of affairs. I'm sure most other factions would do the same, but the reality is, Azarbaijan's separatists are much more likely to succeed than others.
That is merely an opinion. Not based on facts. Saying half of Azeris would support independence would be unrealistic in my opinion as Iranian opposition's claims for the past 34 years that the regime will fall tomorrow!.


What is "ruling Iran"? These students you talk about are the same people that thought they could bring the regime down by yelling Allah Akbar from their rooftops.

Have you ever paused and thought about what would have happened if the unrest of 2009 had escalated further? Do you think the regime would have hesitated to unleash Sepah's full force on people? Have you ever had images of tanks roaming your old neighborhood in Iran? Do you know what it takes to overcome squads of brutal Sepahi soldiers with their machine-guns pointed in every direction? Do you think air strikes on Tehran's neighborhoods would be something this regime would not attempt?
Among them are feminists, Atheists and yes indeed moderate Islamists. Also, what you call "pussifed" is what I call bravery on behalf of women. Based on the stories that I got, it were men that were more "pussified".

Also, no I do not think the regime would have bombarded the neighborhoods. In fact, if the protests lasted longer there was no IR in place now.

Syria is a different story. I have many Syrian friends. What I have observed in them is there quest is more about survival. A friend of mine who was actually familiar with Syria said to me before the uprising there around 3 years ago: If the regime of Syria is gone, the Alewites will become subject to genocide. That is when you do everything to not lose control as a sect. I do not think that Iranians are vahshi people to wanting to genocide sects of society.

Have you been following Syria? Do you really think I'm being negative?



Some values have changed. Some of the old habits are indeed dying, but superstition and religious views are as rampant as they ever were (if not more).

This was evident in the uprisings of 2009. Even the youth fighting for their lives on the streets were hugely superstitious and religious. I.R's education system has come to fruition. Maybe not to their full liking, but it has worked.
Being superstitious and religious is not a factor here. There are many countries whos people are religious and superstitious, yet they have a moderate middle-classes that have logical demands. In fact, the whole uprising in 2009 was a non-ideological quest.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
1
Canada
#26
This may be relevant to the discussion, but in my experience, friends who visit from Iran, who are people who either lived there all their lives, or people who moved "back home" from Toronto, all seem to confirm Soroosh's statement that "I.R's rule is not a negative thing for all Iranians. It's a major negative for you and I, but for most people, it's just a reality of life not worth the time and effort to investigate."

The good news is that all of this group belong to what I would call the upper-middle class, who are rarely involved in revolutions - after all, an upper-middle-class status quo is not something anyone would want to exchange in a hurry for instability and the unknown. If economic hardship is going to be the cause of an uprising, as has been the case with most revolutions in history and the recent Arab uprising, the gauge needs to be the poor (in protest to economic hardship) and the student class who join in to protest against corruption and ask for more freedoms. I honestly don't know people of these two groups to gauge their involvement, but I believe what Feyenoord is saying that they would not be indifferent to the situation - they were a big driving force behind the 2009 uprising.

But unfortunately as history has shown, the latter group rarely get their way post revolution, even if one was to take shape and place. Our own 79 revolutions is a perfect example of this as is the developing situation in Egypt. The main problem that I have, that is keeping me negative, a pessimist or a realist, depending how you want to look at it, goes back to Hamid's change is not necessarily for the better. What is the alternative? Has anyone given any type of vision or blue-print for a future Iran, anything of substance to believe in or hope for? Without that, even if something were to happen, what is the fight really for, the MKO? Just like the akhunds were the most organized force at the time of the last revolution and completely took over, why should we expect that the MKO, the most organized force at the moment, won't be stealing this one?

So unfortunately, the best case scenario for Iran seems to be either total economic collapse or foreign intervention and war, complete chaos either way, more hardship, more lives lost, a few more steps back with not a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel and a monumental task of rebuilding like the Germans did after WWII. And if that's the best case scenario, why would anyone (Iranians or even Western governments) be rushing to make is a reality?

The most realistic path, that most Iranians will not have any choice to but go along with is a coup (sudden or gradual) against akhundism by the AN's and ANesque's of the world moving Iran closer to China of the 60's and maybe a couple of decades later the China of the 21st century with a single party leadership and the same lack of press freedoms - but at least wih no clerics and some individual freedoms (like no more roosari). :(
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#27
they were a big driving force behind the 2009 uprising
They weren't Behroujan. The poor were NOT a part of the 2009 uprising. If they were, AN could not have survived his 2nd term.

The 2009 uprising was a glorified version of the 1999 student uprising. This time the trigger affected more than just students (who foolishly thought their votes meant a damn thing). It affected the middle-class and upper-middle class who passively thought life would be better under Mousavi or Karroubi.

The poor had absolutely nothing to gain from AN's loss (in their own mind anyway). They did not participate for social freedoms. They never will. If AN could stay president 5 more terms, they would continue to vote for him because he pays them cash instead of promising better international affairs and more social freedoms.

What I'm saying in this thread is, even if by some miracle we get all these poor, rich, middle-class, religious, non-religious people to come together for a serious confrontation of the status quo, there still is almost no chance of them changing the core of this regime. We're talking bombs vs ghorme-sabzi here. The hardliners may turn their back on a couple of Ayatollahs and unpopular idiots, but they will not give up control of the country. They own Iran. They will defend it with guns, tanks, bombs and chemical weapons if they have to. Interesting thing is, long before they have to resort to such weapons, the opposition itself will self-destruct for sure.

This is why Sepah officials have no shame about making outrageously funny claims. They know this powerful machine they have created is here to stay. They're basically asking for NAFAS-KESH at this point and feel pretty bored.

Again, save for a full-scale war, Sepah will be running Iran for the foreseeable future. Hala if they suddenly start promoting Dambooli-music and make wearing Hejab illegal is another matter. Iran is owned by militarist religious fascists. There's no denying that.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
1
Canada
#28
Sorry my good man, it was a little unclear the way I wrote it, but I was referring to the students. No, the poor unfortunately weren't present in significant numbers last time around, which may help explain why it didn't turn into an all out revolution - they are always the largest segment of any pre-revolution society and the group with the least to lose and most to gain. Frankly, I can't think of any revolutions where they didn't play a deciding role in the events.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#29
Sorry my good man, it was a little unclear the way I wrote it, but I was referring to the students. No, the poor unfortunately weren't present in significant numbers last time around, which may help explain why it didn't turn into an all out revolution - they are always the largest segment of any pre-revolution society and the group with the least to lose and most to gain. Frankly, I can't think of any revolutions where they didn't play a deciding role in the events.
The issue is that when middle-class becomes to existence, the values change to due education and other things that come with it. Democratic demands come with it and it might not be a revolution which is a good thing in my opinion. If the poor come out, then there is a more chance of a non-pragmatic and rather ideological path they would follow.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
1
Canada
#30
Yup, that's the whole issue. The poor are generally uneducated and susceptible to ideological manipulation (religion, communism, ultra-nationalism, etc.). That's why even in the best democracies in the world, when the middle starts disappearing you see serious erosion in governance. In a way, it's in IR's advantage to keep people poor and uneducated as long as, and that's the catch phrase, they are still able to provide them with the basic necessities. Sheep tend to stay with the flock as long as there's food around and a few dogs to scare them from wandering off.
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
#31
As I have said before, I give IRI 2-4 years before people end this regime. If it does not happen in the next 4 years, then it means I have to do something about it myself.:slowz:
When did iranians set an end to a regime all by themselves the last time? I cant remember. Reza shah o khodeshoon aavordan, khodeshoonam bordan, pesaaresho aavordan, khodeshoonam bordan, khomeini ro aavordan, age bekhaan khodeshoonam mitoonan bebaran vali hanooz nemikhaan. In yek vaagheyate talkhe. Whenever US administration quits backing these thugs, this regime will fall. Iranians are not able to topple anyone. Period.

That fucked up islamist lover Obama is the reason for our region to get more radical. I see absolutely no trend indicating a regime change in Iran. Harvaght in emrikaai haa ye regime eslaamist ro bordan o bejaash ye aadame secular aavordan, oonvaght mitoonim dar morede iran harf bezanim. Alaan vali 40 saale daaran secular haaro too mantaghe az beyn mibaran bejaash risho pash miaaran. Na ghorboon, montazere in nabaash. In regime haalaa haalaa hast. Mardom ham zooreshoono zadan didan bedoone komake khaareji nemishe, dige az oon kaaraa nemikonan, dige haalo hosseleye kahrizako goolle o shishe nooshaabe too koon o tajaavoze dast jami too evin ro nadaaran. vahshat kardan

Berid bekhoonid dige. Eslaamist haa too mesr o liby taarikhcheye toolaani daaran, vali taa moghei ke amrika o nato nayoomadan vasat be Mobarak began boro taa mibarimet, hich eslaamisti zoore bordane Mobarak ro nadaasht. Ghazzafi badbakht notoghe ekhvaan ol moslemin too liby ro boride bood, mamlekato be yek mamlekat servatmand tabdil karde bood, age amrika o nato nemiyoomadan eslaamist haa hanoozam baayad too sooraakhaashoon miboodan. Amrika in dotaa keshvaro daad be ekhvaan ol moslemin va too sooriye ham chenin ghasdi daare. Iran ham age amrikaai haa nakhaan, hich chizi avaz nakhaahad shod va amrikaai haa nemikhaan ke chizi avaz beshe.
 
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Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
#32
Most people on this forum are damn out of touch with the realities of this system. They think it's supported by outside forces or endless money. It's supported by neither. It's got ideological support among the strongest, most productive and healthiest layer of the society. Push comes to shove, half of those against Islamic Republic will choose to support it. That's not something to ignore. It's what keeps this regime alive.
Well, its only partly true. I went there to school too and i even went to war so i know a little bit about that country aswell and i even visit that shit hole every other year.
Look, forget about that ideological support from the strongest, healthiest layer of the society. Really, forget about this one completely. The strongest and so called healthiest layer of the society dont give a fuck about ideology, they however give a fuck about power, influence and money and there for they support those who are the most powerfull, be it IR or whoever else, they dont care. Thats it. They will pragmatically always side with the power and right now the IR is the power so they side with them. They are actually the biggest hezbe baad in Iran. If this regime shows the slightest sign of weakness, the same lay you are talking about, will change sides with a glas of Hennesey whiskey in their hands watching down from their penthouses in elaahiye o gheytariye. The ideological help they get from the poor and uneducated who generation after generation were raised up with saying besme ellah o allao akbar o yaa allaah o yaa ali by every move they make. those are who are still going to emaam zaadeh haashem, those are who still bow down to Haaj aaghaaye mahalle.

The layer you portrayed as the most important ideological support of this regime, is infact nothing but the most opportunistic and shakey layer who wont fight a minute for this regime to stay as soon as they realize there is no chance for them to survive. Their ideological supporters are to be found among illiterate mazhabi guys who are brainwashed by seda o sima for years.
 
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masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#33
This is Charles in Iran in 2004!!
_39839815_charles203.jpg
A country which is being called the world's biggest state sponsor of terrorism....yet the Prince just flies in there........do you know why? Because the Brits are in control.....at least in partial control...along with the Russians - as per 1907 agreement which is still valid whether you like it or not.
300px-The_Russo-British_Pact_in_1907.jpg

and then we have members here who rant on and on about Iranian People will do this and that as if there are no other factors in play.....I agree with China, as it stands right now, things are not looking to be headed towrds becoming better any time soon - I personally fear Obama handlers have planned a Shia-Sunni war........
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
#34
Mass, your arguments and reasonings are in my opinio way more realistic than a year ago but this brits here, brits there, is just tiresome. This seemts to be the only dogma that you are still hanging on to in this regard. Brits and those euro dogs are flying economy class for a long time now. The Business class belongs US and Israel. Aslong as you dont see this, you wont be able to see the real threat. Obama is a threat because he is a tool in the hands of lobbies, but who isnt in the US? There is absolutely no difference between US presidents be it democrat or republican- when it comes to foreign policy because its based on high tech and millitary piracy and there is hundreds of milliards of dollars to earn in that branch. Whoever becomes a US president might have a small window to play around nationally, but when it comes to foreign policy, the rules are set. Dast az paa khataa koni, nafaseto miboran so those puppets of US presidents have learned to play the game without questioning the rules.
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#35
Obama is a threat because he is a tool in the hands of lobbies
Agreed - but Whose Lobby? first inclination is the Oil Cartels.....fine but who else? As I have been saying here for years.....the biggest lobby in Washington when it comes to Foreign Policy is presenting itself as a think tank and is called the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) ceated by the Chatham House in 1922.
Here is what Wiki says: ..............The Council on Foreign Relations, a sister organization to the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London (commonly known as Chatham House), was formed in 1922 as a noncommercial, nonpolitical organization supporting American foreign relations!!!!........
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_on_Foreign_Relations

Yes dear China - Daei jaan was not all that far off....it is the Brits (BP), and the Dutch (Shell),.......and now the Saudis (via BP), Norway......it's all of them - but the shots are called by the Brits.
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
#37
BT jaan, can i be honest with you? Nothing. There is nothing a nation like the iranian can do to change this regime. They would have to become completely other people with completely different mentalities. They would have to become completely heroic and forget about their lifes. Its not gonna happen BT. We do not have such a track record of such a hight grade of heroism. Not even in our best times, let alone today ke chaaploosi o too sari khori o bi ghodrati az mardom mibaare.

We are experiencing a dark era of this nation. The reality looks like this:

1- We are not able to topple these savage thugs all by ourselves.
2- Those who are able to topple this regime, dont want to do it. Not yet.
3- Once those foreign forces decide to topple these thugs (while making it look like a peoples uprising!), you never know what they will have for you. It will most probably be another dicatorship just in another form.
4- Everything else is just fantasizing and romanticism.
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#38
Okay let's say you're right. What shots are you talking about though? Please make them relevant to Iranian people's struggles against Islamic fascism. The nuclear issue and all that crap have nothing to do with Iranians.
What Shots? Shots like MRP must go......Mobarak must be replaced.....Assad must go.......Ghadafi must go.........Provide arms to the militia in Syria by way of Turkey......deliver 16 new F-16 to Morsi (was announced yesterday)................and it's all done against the best long term interests of USA, doable only when people like Carter or Obama are in the White House.
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#39
BT jaan, can i be honest with you? Nothing. There is nothing a nation like the iranian can do to change this regime. They would have to become completely other people with completely different mentalities. They would have to become completely heroic and forget about their lifes. Its not gonna happen BT. We do not have such a track record of such a hight grade of heroism. Not even in our best times, let alone today ke chaaploosi o too sari khori o bi ghodrati az mardom mibaare.

We are experiencing a dark era of this nation. The reality looks like this:

1- We are not able to topple these savage thugs all by ourselves.
2- Those who are able to topple this regime, dont want to do it. Not yet.
3- Once those foreign forces decide to topple these thugs (while making it look like a peoples uprising!), you never know what they will have for you. It will most probably be another dicatorship just in another form.
4- Everything else is just fantasizing and romanticism.
I don't feel as helpless as you - I think a nation can dictate a lot. We are just too ignorant and too passive. How many of us live here in USA? 2-3 Million? Get 100,000 in front of the White House and make demands.......sit around for a week if you have to. Don't chant slogans - just Hold signs clearly indicating you know the exact nature of who is supporting IR and how.....
As for inside Iran - I kind of agree with you - except I think the population must jump on the next opportunity when and if it presents itself - the opportunity has to be initiated outside Iran and supported by major players.
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
#40
Bale, would be great, khodet midooni in harfaaiye ke khodam daaram chand saale mizanam. Vali in aakharesh khatm mishe be hamoon harfi ke zadam. Irooniaa che dar daakhel va che dar khaarej, az khod gozashtegi nemishnaase. Donbaale pool o zendgi o tafrihe khodeshe. This is too much too ask from iranians. One of the most raahat talab people . There is a better chance for the sun to move around the moon than for iranians ´to do something like that.

In dar vaagheh yeki az kassif tarin shakhsiat haaye irooniye. Man nemigam naro khaarej, khodeto nasaaz, etefaaghan migam harki mitoone baayad bere o khodesho az oon lajanzaar door kone, vali inke az hollywood hills biaai ashke temsaah berizi ke aai vatan vaay mihan, bedoone inke kaare mofidi bokoni kheyli past fetratiye. Yek omr tazaahor, tazaahor be eshgh, tazaahor be mihandoosti, tazaahor be vatanparasti, tazaahor be mehoon navaazi, tazaahor be zendegi.