That's because almost all major transactions have come to a halt. An idling car consumes a lot less fuel than a moving one.
If the true value of Rial had risen, you'd see more economic activities and a general decline in price of goods and services. As of right now, Iran's economy is at a stand-still and the conversion rate of Rial is completely meaningless.
The effect of sanctions is yet to come by the way.
Yeah 11200 could be bought today.. some thing it's the government lowering to force people sell, others realize there's no business with pricy dollar.
I think somewhere in between, don't doubt they may run it to 13000 area again but long term I still believe there is downward pressure.
Current "price" is so the government buys dollar back, there's no market no depth no meaningful pool of sellers at these prices.
I still think dollar could be had under 10,000 but it will be a good while. Based on what said earlier we should see dollar at 15000+ by now.. even 20000 was suggested. I have no doubt by norouz there will be a jump.
Literally no one can find and buy dollar at the rate you posted. If they could, business would be flourishing. Remember, labor is very cheap in Iran these days and to be able to import material at 9500 toman would be a dream for manufacturing.
As of today, NIMA exchange has been piling on backlog orders for 6 months. Only the handful usual thieves (very few) have been able to get their orders fulfilled. This has practically sent the economy into a halt. Nothing is happening. It's a locked economy anxiously waiting for more activity, but that activity will mean further devaluation of Rial. It's inevitable.
You know people in the cell business who can buy US cash at 9500/piece and spend it? Or you're talking about depots and depots of already imported cell-phones being sold to them at 9500 Toman/U$? Two different things.
There are 1,000,000 mobile phones that were seized by the government mob 6 months ago. They're slowly selling them to mobile vendors/importers.
^ no my point is personally there is access to 9500 area, not to the tune of million dollars but there are some sellers. Not everyone has access to those sellers o/c. Just like how there were sellers in the 7000 range in June.
It's a lot worse than that. 19000 is just a stupid number he's throwing around. They might have some grip on the exchange price at Istanbul square, but looks like they have no grip on what gets done with these dollars at the borders or ports.
Many different entities including banks and even some ministries(!!!) are involved in illegal importation and trade of goods these days (a huge WTF?!!!). Corruption is so deep, it's impossible to contain the flow of currency in any direction. So what have they done? They've basically tried to halt it all. Even the insiders are losing out. It can't continue. Rial is doomed.
The elimination of zeros: Central bank unveils new 50 Tomani bill (equivalent of 50,000 Toman or 500,000 Rial of today)
As I wrote many times in this thread, Rial is essentially a dead currency, about to be pathetically replaced by the new "Toman". The new "Toman" is not the "Toman" you know. It's actually 0.001*Toman of today. This means 100,000 (100K) Toman will be 100 Toman.
This method has happened many times in history in countries experiencing high inflation and with very few exceptions, it brings further devaluation and often hyper-inflation.
It's not set in stone yet, but it's gonna happen one way or another. Again, none of this has anything to do with sanctions.
Rial's devaluation continues on all fronts as the central bank desperately tries to control the artificially low exchange rates. By all accounts US dollar at 15,000 toman is currently a bargain. Most goods have caught up to the price of dollar and some have surpassed the true rate of inflation due to lack of supply.
For ordinary people in Iran, it's very hard to get access to sizeable amounts of foreign currency. The market sucks up every single dollar like a vacuum cleaner. The slightest increase in economic activity brings about further devaluation of Rial. Sanctions are slowly affecting the country as a whole. Their effect so far has been mostly sentimental and not practical. That is slowly changing.