1 dollar = 4800 goozman

Playboy

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Oct 18, 2010
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looks like gov needs more money to pay for flood damages and
shortfall of oil exports due to sanctions.but no worries,there are
enough suckers to buy $ at a high price and make up the revenue
for them.
 

A8K

Ball Boy
Oct 22, 2016
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15k target was damnn accurate. Rather ballsy call then!!!! Kinda like BT calling Amazon to the moon but trading ETFs.

I am hearing 23000 is a possibility per calculating shortage Of IRI annual budget factoring oil trade income deficiency.
If it gets there then theres no ceiling.



Some of those callers had some retarded theories. No wonder we are where we are.
 
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Bache Tehroon

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Not much mafia involvement. This is simply the result of central bank giving in to the demands of exporters who were refusing to use NIMA exchange rates.

Basically, exporters were being demanded to sell their dollars at around 9000 toman on an exchange platform called NIMA. For a few months this was strictly enforced (on the surface) and things seemed fine, but over time everybody realized only a fraction of export proceeds were being exchanged on NIMA. The resulting hyper-inflation and unexpected fluctuations in the supply of foreign currencies made everyone wonder what the purpose of NIMA was.

The Central bank had 2 choices:

1. Try to enforce the use of NIMA via penalties and fines (impossible in a country like Iran, but not in Cuba for example)
2. Slowly let exporters legally exchange their dollars in free market without making headlines about it.

Hemmati, wisely and out of desperation chose the 2nd option. The result is a temporary rise in supply of foreign currencies (specially and almost strictly UAE Derham) which has seemingly lowered the price of US dollars.

The truth of the matter though continues to elude fools and the uninformed masses. Rial's value is only in decline.
 
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Bache Tehroon

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Let's put it like that, the smallest currency unit in Iran is 1 Rial . If in a derby match day in azadi you ask all 100000 people to give you 1 Rial it's then you have a dollar in your hand
Funny but irrelevant (I'm sure you know)

The size of the unit need not matter. If anything, Iran is a utopia for cheap labor and continuous devaluation of currency (which is wonderful for exports and manufacturing). The problem is the devaluation of its currency is not controllable and its cheap labor-force cannot be tapped in a meaningful way for the foreseeable future. It's a very dangerous country to invest in. One of the worst in the world. Even countries involved in civil conflict and strict military dictatorships offer better investment environments than Iran. Very unfortunate.
 

A8K

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Oct 22, 2016
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Not much mafia involvement. This is simply the result of central bank giving in to the demands of exporters who were refusing to use NIMA exchange rates.

Basically, exporters were being demanded to sell their dollars at around 9000 toman on an exchange platform called NIMA. For a few months this was strictly enforced (on the surface) and things seemed fine, but over time everybody realized only a fraction of export proceeds were being exchanged on NIMA. The resulting hyper-inflation and unexpected fluctuations in the supply of foreign currencies made everyone wonder what the purpose of NIMA was.

The Central bank had 2 choices:

1. Try to enforce the use of NIMA via penalties and fines (impossible in a country like Iran, but not in Cuba for example)
2. Slowly let exporters legally exchange their dollars in free market without making headlines about it.

Hemmati, wisely and out of desperation chose the 2nd option. The result is a temporary rise in supply of foreign currencies (specially and almost strictly UAE Derham) which has seemingly lowered the price of US dollars.

The truth of the matter though continues to elude fools and the uninformed masses. Rial's value is only in decline.
I heard they decided to put a tally on the net as who gets the government currency rates and how much for import and exports. Mot exactly sure how this to take place.

Yes what you pointed in one part of what's going on, other part is although they brought the rate under 13k they were not selling it. I saw a reference as to trucks taking dollars out to Iraq when purchased; I believe it. They got payrolls and more offer there.
 
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Bache Tehroon

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I heard they decided to put a tally on the net as who gets the government currency rates and how much for import and exports. Mot exactly sure how this to take place.

Yes what you pointed in one part of what's going on, other part is although they brought the rate under 13k they were not selling it. I saw a reference as to trucks taking dollars out to Iraq when purchased; I believe it. They got payrolls and more offer there.
Yeah exchanging money is a true pain in the ass in Iran. The Central Bank has been tracking people's purchases of foreign currencies and gold coins. They just slapped a capital gains tax on all gold coin purchases made last year. This has wreaked havoc in Iran.

More than anything though, it seems like a few new channels of money-transfer have been found within the UAE bureaucracy. For now this allows the Central Bank to artificially lower the rate of UAE Dirham which has an immediate effect on the price of both U$ and Euros in Iran. I'm sure some people in UAE are getting richer because of this, but it's the last lifeline of Iran's Central Bank in fighting the inevitable.

Meanwhile, Rial is being devalued at over 1,200,000,000,000 Toman per day (yes 1 trillion 200 billion toman every day)
 

A8K

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Oct 22, 2016
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Giving a false sense of things are under control. I think travelers rate is still13k. Under 12k rate is for geneeral commerce I believe


US may have to decide to act before the 4way gangster countries developing crypto finds a cult. Russia China Iran and Venezuela may hit it right as Trump was unable go move bitcoin with a tweet recently unlike conventional market.
 
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Playboy

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its basic math 1a.
when $ goes from 3k to 12k the stock market will follow accordingly.
nothing needs to be rigged.
but some washed brains need to be dried up!
 

A8K

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Oct 22, 2016
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Talks of a market rolling w dollar at 10500 starting next week.

Am sure the IR is gobbling cheap dollar. Game is not over however real estate is bending a bit.


IR also has propped up it's stock market. They are rigging the market. The question is is it sustainable?
 

Bache Tehroon

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dollar dropped sharply in the past few days to 11800 today. any idea why?
why not?

NIMA dollars are freely being exchanged at market-price (instead of the old 8000 toman when their true value was 15000 toman). This means billions of dollars that had been kept by exporters in defiance of the mandated low rate have been pouring into the market.

This should've been done many many years ago. It's too late now. There's simply not enough supply of foreign currency to keep up with demand. Eventually Iran's importation of goods will demand enough foreign currency for rates to jump right back up. This is the calm before the inevitable storm.
 

Bache Tehroon

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Same shit happens every year right before Hajj. Also the circus of "elections" is coming up.
Gotta give it to Hemmati. He's done well with the hand he was dealt. Poor guy is toast though. He's spending from a rapidly depleting stash of UAE Dirham that will soon be figured out by the US sanction team. Once that door is closed, he'll most likely resign.
 
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Bache Tehroon

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dollar keeps dropping lower and lower
when is this doom's day everyone was talking about a few months ago?
The doomsday is already here. If you think the artificial exchange rate of US dollar vs. Rial has any significance in Iran's economy, well then, try to get informed.

Just yesterday, the government itself released official numbers for "poverty line" (minimum income required) for family of 3: 7,000,000 toman. The current minimum wage in Iran: 1,500,000 toman. It's impossible for a married couple to survive at a sustainable rate these days. If that's not called doomsday in your book, well then, try to get informed.

The US dollar will jump to its natural rate (at least triple the current artificial rate) when the wheels of Iran's economy actually start turning (that will happen sooner or later). Right now, everything is at a standstill. There is so little business activity, there's little demand for US dollar. The entire country can be considered "unemployed" right now because nothing is happening. Once this changes (and it must), the true depth of today's catastrophe will be visible.

Until then, do not hold significant sums of Rial for any reason. US dollar is a very good hedge right now. It's actually subsidized by Iran's government. The somewhat smarter people are constantly adding to their foreign currency balance. At these rates, it's a no-brainer. Doesn't matter though. Iran fell deep into poverty much sooner and faster than even I had anticipated. It's an ugly forecast from here on.
 
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