For most people, everything needs to get converted to foreign currency or gold. Investor sentiment has gone beyond negative at this point. A massive divide between the 'haves' and 'have nots' is about to take place (worse than it already is)
Iranians are in really deep financial trouble. Please advise your families to be prepared. For a nation constantly on the edge, it's hard to believe how unprepared the average Iranian household is for rainy days.
In another post on around the same date this is what I said in reply to A8K:
No one is going to rise up. Cries of injustice, poverty and entitlement don't equate to rising up. Any limited attempts at rising up will be quickly nullified by those willing to further participate in the charade. There's an endless supply of moronic, treasonous and opportunistic vermin in Iran.
On Sep 25, 2018 When Dollar hit 16,000 Toman for the first time, this is what I had to say:
Bache Tehroon said:
1 U$ = 16600 Toman
Dollar having been at or above 14000 for a month means a massive wave of retail price increases will be hitting the market in the coming days. All the price increases seen so far were mostly due to dollar hovering around 7000-9000 toman a while back. Expect all prices to at least double in short order.
Side note: Gasoline price in Iran is ridiculously low. This can't last. At 1000 toman, it's being subsidized by a factor of 500%. Its real price should be at least 5000 toman/litre even by Iran's historically subsidized fuel rate. This price increase is coming and it will choke the hell out of Iran's crawling economy.
It truly has become a game of mere survival, albeit a relatively easy one for now. For most people it means cutting all costs and purchases of items not related to absolute basic needs. A true economical depression. While still far from a 'doomsday scenario', this has severe consequences:
- You will see a huge wave of young children (under 15) seeking work/income. The phrase "Koodakaane Kaar" will take on a whole new meaning as the number of kids needing work to support their families will be astonishing.
- The country's birth-rate, specially in cities will plunge. More than it already has. Negative population growth is inevitable in Iran.
- Education will become a luxury only reserved for the 'haves' of the society. Many families will not be able to send their children to school/university.
- Crime will rise. A lot. Poverty itself doesn't necessarily increase crime, but instability does.
I'm not quoting myself to brag about my predictions coming true (which they totally have). I'm quoting myself to remind myself how logic always prevails. Emotions never win when it comes to money and economy. I had decided to put emotions and personal interests aside and think of the situation from a completely logical perspective. It all came true. Most of us can't keep our emotions and personal interests at bay when it comes to matter related to Iran.
This is why we can't understand how a country with such astonishing inflation rates can actually continue to function. Because we just don't want to believe it. The truth is, Iranians will continue to function only in a much much poorer state.
Keep away from Rial. That's all one needs to do for now. And anyone with an ion of self-respect should avoid having children under these circumstances in Iran.
US dollar breaks the psychological 30,000 Toman barrier. Keep in mind, this is the official rate. There is no longer a black market out there. Central Bank has finally caved in and accepted the market's rate. They will definitely try to reverse this trend in the coming months, but they will fail again like they always have.
Poverty and social dysfunction has reached unprecedented levels this year (as predicted).
In my opinion, once the US elections pass and Iranians finally realize how little it affects the crippling inflation imposed on them by the regime, the situation will shift gears and Rial's demise accelerates.
The price of US dollar having hovered in the 20,000-30,000 toman for 6 months will soon cause the price of consumer-goods to skyrocket once again (more than they already have) and this will put tens of millions of Iranians on the edge of insolvency and extreme poverty. A revolution is out of the question. A coup de ta is very unlikely. Social unrest will be suppressed and the only options will be:
1. Acceptance (sweeping depression) : applies to the vast majority
2. Revolt (pockets of anarchy): applies to rural tribes with roots and means
Crime rates will rise and safety will quickly decline in urban areas.
Looks like the market disagrees with the latest round of sanctions on 18 Iranian banks being deemed as "meaningless" by several figures in the regime.
Last year the daily rate of money printing was 1.6 Trillion and the central bank had vowed to reduce it gradually. Surprise surprise! It has now reached 2.8 Trillion Toman a day. This will wreak havoc on people's lives for years to come. Forget the US elections. Iran's biggest concern and the public enemy #1 is the insane amount of Rial floating around.