3rd pot. Irans first world cup 2018 Goal

brando

brando

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Feb 15, 2006
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Entering World Cup for 2nd time in a role, was actually the first goal, but since qualification the main Goals of Iran must be, better draw pot for wc Groups and reaching the knock out stage at the world cup.
This month's FIFA rankings decide which pot Iran will be in.


Will it be pot 3 for first time ever for Iran? Will Iran be among top 24 teams of total 32 teams to qualify?
Instead of counting teams from top rankings, it is easier to say Iran must avoid being among last 8 teams of the world cup.
So we need at least 8 teams below us at the group draws.


So far for Iran:
Asia (3 teams)- All 3 Asian teams are below Iran (KOR, JPN, KSA)
Africa (5 teams)- All 5 qualifiying candidates are below Iran for now.
North America (1 team) - either Panama or USA, both are below Iran.
Intercontinental A (0 team) - (Oceania vs S. America) NZL are below iran but the other team, the S.Americans, are above Iran, and will must likely also be the team to book ticket for wc (CHI, ARG)
Intercontinental B (1 team)- (Asia vs N. America) AUS/ SYR and USA/HON/PAN are all below Iran


So at this moment, 10 teams are below us, which will place us in 3 pot.


But the problem is this.
N. American and African teams are very close to Iran (fifa ranking).
While Iran plays a low ranking point friendly vs Russia, even if Iran wins, the amount of points Iran gains will be dwarfed by the WCQ points N.Americans and Africans gain.


In order to reach the first world cup Goal of being in pot 3, Lets hope Iran beats Russia, and manage to stay ahead of near rivals of N.America and Africa.
 
brando

brando

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Calculation of points for a single match

The number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors:

Was the match won or drawn? (M)
How important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup™ match)? (I)How strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C)


These factors are brought together in the following formula to ascertain the total number of points (P):


P = M x I x T x C

The following criteria apply to the calculation of points:

M: Points for match result

Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat. In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.

I: Importance of match

Friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0

FIFA World Cup™ qualifier or confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5

Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0

FIFA World Cup™ final competition: I = 4.0

T: Strength of opposing team

The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 – the ranking position of the opponents. As an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50. The ranking position is taken from the opponents’ ranking in the most recently published FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

C: Strength of confederation

When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used. The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup™ competitions (see following page). Their values are as follows:

CONMEBOL 1.00
UEFA 0.99
AFC/CAF/OFC/CONCACAF 0.85
 
brando

brando

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Here are exampels of Iran matches vs Russia (64th), Chile (9th), Syria (75th) and Togo (121).
Lets say Iran wins.

P = M x I x T x C

Friendly

Russia = 3 x 1 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 404 points
Chile = 3 x 1 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 573 points
Syria = 3 x 1 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 319 points
Togo = 3 x 1 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 201 points


WC Qualification (intercontinental)

Russia = 3 x 2,5 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 1010 points
Chile = 3 x 2,5 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 1432 points
Syria = 3 x 2,5 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 798 points
Togo = 3 x 2,5 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 502 points

World Cup

Russia = 3 x 4 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 1616 points
Chile = 3 x 4 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 2292 points
Syria = 3 x 4 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 1276 points
Togo = 3 x 1 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 804 points


This is why winning against Syria in Tehran (which we failed) was more important than winning Friendlies against Togo and Russia combined.
 
kasra1930

kasra1930

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#6
Dec 30, 2011
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brando said:
Here are exampels of Iran matches vs Russia (64th), Chile (9th), Syria (75th) and Togo (121).
Lets say Iran wins.

P = M x I x T x C

Friendly

Russia = 3 x 1 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 404 points
Chile = 3 x 1 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 573 points
Syria = 3 x 1 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 319 points
Togo = 3 x 1 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 201 points


WC Qualification (intercontinental)

Russia = 3 x 2,5 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 1010 points
Chile = 3 x 2,5 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 1432 points
Syria = 3 x 2,5 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 798 points
Togo = 3 x 2,5 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 502 points

World Cup

Russia = 3 x 4 x (200-64) x 0,99 = 1616 points
Chile = 3 x 4 x (200-9) x 1,00 = 2292 points
Syria = 3 x 4 x (200-75) x 0,85 = 1276 points
Togo = 3 x 1 x (200-121) x 0,85 = 804 points


This is why winning against Syria in Tehran (which we failed) was more important than winning Friendlies against Togo and Russia combined.
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براندو جان،از دانشگاه استانفورد چه خبر؟بابا در سطح دیپلم با ما صحبت کن.دمت گرم که اینقدر با معلوماتی.توضیحتان عالی*** بود درود بر شما.
 
brando

brando

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kasra1930 said:

براندو جان،از دانشگاه استانفورد چه خبر؟بابا در سطح دیپلم با ما صحبت کن.دمت گرم که اینقدر با معلوماتی.توضیحتان عالی*** بود درود بر شما.
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haha. Kasra jan, this world cup draw is the first world cup draw purly based on FIFA rankings.
This forces us to understand the point system.
 
brando

brando

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Babr

Babr

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Nov 24, 2002
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Payandeh Iran said:
Doctor jAn the khabar online is the most unreliable source. I'm not saying we won't be in third seed but not becaue they reported it.
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I was about to say, i don't know who runs khabaronline, i have seen some stuffs that i couldn't believe. The stuff like CQ won't invite legionnaires for the match against Togo and Russia and will go with local players lol. Mokhe adam migoze!!
 
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