4 shanbeh soori, what do you predict?

Oct 18, 2002
6,139
0
Los Angeles, CA USA
#21
Judging by 22 Bahman, I predict there will be even less people in the streets this year than normal, people will not let their kids go outside and be easy pray for the regime's hooligans at night when people are the most vulnerable ... as shown by previous experiences at night time violence ...

As for the explosives, doesn't really matter ... this isn't an armed battle and even if it was, those typically with access to "narenjak" aren't the demographics most politically active, they are a bunch of high school kids ...

I might sound pessimistic, it's because I am. This movement in my opinion can survive only so long without clear and strong leadership and when we always pin all our hopes to the next event, for which the government has ample time to prep you can only expect another propeganda show.

I'm still positive about the long term outcomes of the movement, the country is unofficially shut down and all the efforts of the government are focused on containing the people and nothing is getting done, the sad thing about that is that people will suffer and IR will live to see another day ... in my opinion this stalemate will continue to exist until a major event takes place where a wider range of demographics have enough vested to join forces against IR
These are my feelings exactly. The environment is perfectly suited for leadership, but there isnt any. And without it the regime can easily subvert any disorganized effort by the people. The ease of this subversion then disheartens the people even more... Its a sad cycle that needs to be broken. Someone needs to lead.
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 4, 2005
16,587
1,164
#22
Judging by 22 Bahman, I predict there will be even less people in the streets this year than normal, people will not let their kids go outside and be easy pray for the regime's hooligans at night when people are the most vulnerable ... as shown by previous experiences at night time violence ...

As for the explosives, doesn't really matter ... this isn't an armed battle and even if it was, those typically with access to "narenjak" aren't the demographics most politically active, they are a bunch of high school kids ...

I might sound pessimistic, it's because I am. This movement in my opinion can survive only so long without clear and strong leadership and when we always pin all our hopes to the next event, for which the government has ample time to prep you can only expect another propeganda show.

I'm still positive about the long term outcomes of the movement, the country is unofficially shut down and all the efforts of the government are focused on containing the people and nothing is getting done, the sad thing about that is that people will suffer and IR will live to see another day ... in my opinion this stalemate will continue to exist until a major event takes place where a wider range of demographics have enough vested to join forces against IR
Very good post. At the most it could break the stalemate which is a good thing.
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,161
11
#23
I agree with your sentiments - we should not set ourselves up for disapointments. We are also agree about the long term success - it is inevitable. However, as one who always cautions about getting overly excited - I like to predict this 4 Shanbeh Souri will be huge. Because of the widespread nature of the event - there is nothing the regime can do either. There is however an extra touch needed to distinguish this year from every other year - something like combining allaho akbar with fireworks.........I am sure the Green will figure something out.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
39,041
1,226
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#24
Remember, it's also the day (night) on which the regime can hurt people the most due to the nature of the event.

Who's to say Basiji thugs won't be throwing narenjak and other stuff at people's faces? Who's going to prosecute them? Who will even recognize them in the dark?
 

reza+

Ball Boy
Feb 19, 2004
354
0
#25
Friend came back from tehran yesterday, he said:

1. apparently the youth are planning a big/huge show for 4shanbe ...
2. he also said things are very relaxed in terms of social restrictions as the police do not bother people with hejab/social issues ...
3. people aren't scared of basij etc
4. no matter what iri does, the youth/people in tehran want to live their lives their own way

note he was only there for a week (mainly for a social visit) and would have only met a very small cross section of people
 

JazzedUp

Bench Warmer
Dec 1, 2002
1,688
0
42
London
#26
Nightly demo is quite dangerous. Not quite sure what's gonna happen to be honest but we'll see. I don't expect a big turn out to be honest but I hope I'm wrong.