Amazon up $120 today

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 4, 2005
15,934
294
#5
The market is fake. it being driven forward with all easy money policy.
People that have been saying that have missed out on one of the longest bull markets. I'm up 21% since the beginning of the year even though I have some loser stocks like GE and Fluor and Chevron and BP and Nike.
 
Oct 18, 2002
15,934
45
#11
People that have been saying that have missed out on one of the longest bull markets. I'm up 21% since the beginning of the year even though I have some loser stocks like GE and Fluor and Chevron and BP and Nike.
LOL yes i do have GE as well. but i have even bigger losers than that. and I have some big winners.

I am half in cash because I just can't explain how companies that I "know" keep going up in irrational manner.


Let's look at Microsoft: MSFT as of 4 years ago was trading on 14 P/E on a consistent basis.
What Changed why is it that for the past 3 years it has been trading on 27 P/E.


Ok that is technology company. lets look the Golden Arches (MCD)
big restaurant chains are under pressure because millennial don't relate to the them.
so why is that McDonald's is trading at 23 P/E?

let's look at YUM
All the Yum chains in the u.s are struggling. Pizza Hut sales are flat.
Taco bell sales are flat
KFC sales are flat.
why is it trading at 36 P/E?


70% of u.s GDP is based on consumer spending. do you notice people earning more money?

I am not saying the market will crash tomorrow. or next year. I am just saying I keep increasing my cash position.
because I look at the few companies that I sort of understand how they make money and I can't explain why their stock keeps going up.
while they are doing a very mediocre job.
 

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
3,021
184
#12
21% year to date is ok but you can do better.i have,see below.
the stock market will keep going up as longs as interest rates
are close to 0%.the sign to start selling is when you stop getting
12-18 months cash/transfer offers from the banks issuing your credit
cards.i get those all the time with fees as low as 2%.that's basically
free money that i have used to invest in the market.once these offers
stop,then i know it's time to get out of the market.
 

Attachments

Oct 18, 2002
15,934
45
#13
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...e-as-much-debt-as-they-had-in-2008-2017-04-03

American consumers just hit a scary milestone.

They now collectively have the most outstanding revolving debt — often summarized as credit card debt — in U.S. history, according to a report Monday released by the Federal Reserve. Americans had $1.021 trillion in outstanding revolving credit in June 2017. This beats the previous record in April 2008, when consumers had a collective $1.02 trillion in outstanding credit revolving credit.

“This record should serve as a wake-up call to Americans to focus on their credit card debt,” said Matt Schulz, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com, a credit card website. “Even if you feel your debt is manageable right now, know that you could be one unexpected emergency away from real trouble.”

Revolving credit had been growing at an annual growth rate of 4.9%. One reason: More consumers are getting access to credit cards backed by major banks and issuers in recent months. More than 171 million consumers had access to those cards in the first quarter of 2017, the highest number that has had access since 2005, when about $162.5 million people had access.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/average-credit-card-debt-household/
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 4, 2005
15,934
294
#14
LOL yes i do have GE as well. but i have even bigger losers than that. and I have some big winners.

I am half in cash because I just can't explain how companies that I "know" keep going up in irrational manner.


Let's look at Microsoft: MSFT as of 4 years ago was trading on 14 P/E on a consistent basis.
What Changed why is it that for the past 3 years it has been trading on 27 P/E.


Ok that is technology company. lets look the Golden Arches (MCD)
big restaurant chains are under pressure because millennial don't relate to the them.
so why is that McDonald's is trading at 23 P/E?

let's look at YUM
All the Yum chains in the u.s are struggling. Pizza Hut sales are flat.
Taco bell sales are flat
KFC sales are flat.
why is it trading at 36 P/E?


70% of u.s GDP is based on consumer spending. do you notice people earning more money?

I am not saying the market will crash tomorrow. or next year. I am just saying I keep increasing my cash position.
because I look at the few companies that I sort of understand how they make money and I can't explain why their stock keeps going up.
while they are doing a very mediocre job.
You picked the wrong stock to call pricey. MSFT has only doubled in 17 years. It's actually pretty cheap compared to the market also pays a 2% dividend.
http://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/prices/microsoft-corp-stock-price-history
 
Oct 18, 2002
15,934
45
#15
yes Microsoft looks reasonably priced when compared to the Market (say MCD)

but when you compare Microsoft P/E today vs 4 years ago you should take a look and
see if microsoft's earnings are pretty much supposed to double? in fact Microsoft has a lot of headwind.
they are switching from licensed product revenue to reoccurring revenue. in the long run they will probably do a little better.
but in the short-term there is a lot of uncertainty about their ability to replace veining windows, office, server, ... revenue with reoccurring revenue from Microsoft Azure platform.

anyway Microsoft is a real company. it is making real money. it deserves to have a high P/E. but that P/E number of years ago was 14. Google;s P/E was 30 because thought it might change the world.

I can't see anything wrong with Google and Microsoft individually. on a relative basis they have stronger business than majority of businesses out there.


but you can't help but look at the market and see that it just keeps going up. even for companies like YUM.

then you turn on the radio and there is an Ad for "Learn how flip house this weekend seminar".

at least where I am living, housing expenses has doubled in the past 15 years. Cost of education has gone way up.
food has become more expensive. but I don't notice people making even 30% more than they used to. let alone 50% more or 100% more.

I will give you an anecdote. a bartender that works near my house. gets irregular hours. she gets at best 35 hours a week.
she and her boyfriend together bought a house for 200k way outside the city limits of my town.
everyday she Drives 45 minutes on a highway that has No Traffic to get to work.

when the economy turns down i know this lady wont be able to make her house payments.

there are so many americans who are living pay-check to pay check. if their car breaks down.
they don't have the ability to pay for that broken suspension or whatever. they will have to rely on financing
thus the whole industry you see that now place like FireStone, NTB, pepboys offer financing when you get your car done.

I have never ever before seen so many pawn shops and pay-day loan shops.

again, I am not claiming the economy will crash tomorrow. If I knew that for a fact.
I would be crazy not to sell everything i have and just short the market.

but it has been 9.5 years since the last recession in the U.S. and one can't help out and wonder why we haven't got one yet.
 

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
3,021
184
#17
the usa stopped backing the $ with gold in the 70s.
so as long as the fed keeps printing money the $ will
be king backed by the massive usa nuclear arsenal.
that's the bottom line.
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 4, 2005
15,934
294
#18
Up another $12. I have bought and sold AMZN a hundred times but had I just hung on I would have been sitting pretty today. I bought it last at $940 and I think I will just keep them.
On a separate note anybody into cryptocurrency?
 
Oct 18, 2002
15,934
45
#19
Up another $12. I have bought and sold AMZN a hundred times but had I just hung on I would have been sitting pretty today. I bought it last at $940 and I think I will just keep them.
On a separate note anybody into cryptocurrency?
I bought at $340. just wait wallstreet short cited.

they will find an excuse on why they amazon is spending so much money. It will come back down to 700s and you can pull the trigger.