An Israeli attack on Iran may be imminent?

footballeirani · Jul 20, 2009

Look at this report:

An eventual attack on Iran may include ground forces. Units of Sayeret Matka"l ("Headquarters Scouts", Israel's elite special forces) have been transferred to the mock in Biq'at Hayareach ("Moon Vale"), not far from Eilat. They have spent the last few weeks training there: parachuting, paragliding, urban warfare (laba"b in Hebrew), and hand to hand combat. Special emphasis is placed on explosives. The area is isolated (it got its name from its eerie similarity to the moonscape), but various civilian suppliers have reported massive explosions during the day.

One word about the "windows" mentioned in my earlier article. As any military planner and intelligence agent knows, these are not actual operational dates. "Windows" are possible operational dates and are dictated by the confluence of weather projections, known troop movements, political and geopolitical circumstances, and military preparedness. Additional windows exist in September and October this year (I have the dates). It is likely, therefore, that Israel will attack in July or August, but no later than October this year.

http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3045

Faced with what it regards as an existential threat, Israel is reviving old and dormant intelligence networks and assets worldwide. Erstwhile members of the Lishka le-Kishre Mada (Laka"m, headed in the 1980s by Rafi "The Stinker" Eitan), or the "Bureau for Scientific Contacts" of Pollard infamy, were recently called to duty. They are working closely with physicists from the Weitzman Institute, the Technion, and Tel-Aviv and Beer-Sheba Universities. These combined team of seasoned intelligence operatives and top-level scientists have spent the last two weeks briefing the commando units in their base of operations near Eilat and in the nuclear reactor in Dimona.

Prominent members of the Israeli government, the Headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces, and the intelligence community are against any military operation in Iran. They believe any such a move would be tantamount to geopolitical and, in the long-term, physical suicide. But they are in the minority. The majority of decision-makers are siding with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who is pressing for an early military resolution of the problem.

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This comes after the report from AP which said Iran will have means to test a bomb in 6 months.

Israel has also sent a couple of warships through Suez Canal. I think an attack may be coming very soon.

Biden has already stated that USA will not get in the way of Israel if they wanted to attack Iran.

footballeirani · Jul 20, 2009

JERUSALEM, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates plans to visit Israel on July 27 for talks likely to focus on Iran's nuclear ambitions and U.S.-Israeli strategic ties, officials involved in planning the trip said on Sunday.

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I think he is going there to persuade the Israeli officials not to do this but I have a hard time seeing how Netanyahu could be persuaded. He did not listen to Obama over the settlements either.

buzz · Jul 20, 2009

Good. I hope they kill all the basijes and all the akhoonds akhoonds...fucking militia uses live ammunition on its own people doesn't deserves people's support.

Fatso · Jul 20, 2009

buzz said:

Dude they don't' care about shit like that. Lets say if a democratic government was in power in Iran. These fucks would still attack Iran over the nuclear program.

The_Referee · Jul 20, 2009

This will be the best gift ever to AN and his gang.

But I hope the wisdom prevails and they do not do such a stupid mistake.

Abedzaadeh · Jul 20, 2009

footballeirani said:

You were the only one that was spot on re Raf and his speech

I truely hope you are wrong on this one though!!

DireStraits · Jul 20, 2009

The_Referee said:

Some times it looks like Israel and US is not interested in a free western
like society at all.

anoush · Jul 20, 2009

stupid thing to do on the israeli half, basically a catalyst for global nuclear warfare

mowj · Jul 20, 2009

Israel will do anyhting to keep AN in power. after all, in the short history of Israel and the zionists, there has never been a more friendly, a more useful, and a more hard working individual working for their cause as AN.
The passage of a few resolution in UN after 60 years and the AN's successful attempt to defeat passgae of a war crime declaration against Israel are all clear sings.
So, why should they not do something in return for AN.
However I doubted that they can stand the complication with unwanted results of world reaction and the wrath of Iranian people forever.
Israel may name an street or an square or a park after AN's years of true service.

footballeirani · Jul 21, 2009

Abedzaadeh said:

Well I hope so too. I do not think this is going to be a widespread bombing campaign. At the very most a handful of sites will be targeted. The casualties will be at the most 100-500.

I am thinking it will be almost impossible for Israel not do anything, because they have to. There is no other choice.

The_Referee · Jul 21, 2009

footballeirani said:

Well with war mongering people in charge in Israel who have fetish for likes of AN and Khamenei, they might attack and help their best friends in IRI. But I hope they are stopped and do not do such a stupid thing.

I am sure the child killer mentality of those AN like politicians in Israel care little about a democracy in Iran. However, I really hope they do NOT give such a great gift to AN. I hope some wiser forces inside Israel can convince all that a stupid move like this will not even dent pursuit of nuclear technology even a bit. In fact, with AN and IRI cementing their position because of such stupid move, if anything, the pursuit will be stronger and more justified.

But, as we all know, unfortunately, humanity has to deal with stupidity of war mongering politicians all the time and suffer because of it. Hitler, Saddam, Sharon and now Bush, AN, HAMAS and Netanyahu. They are all the same but in different societies and with different social and political context. Warmongers who dance on the blood of innocent! Hope someday our societies never get fooled to let them into high power positions ever.

footballeirani · Jul 21, 2009

Refree

If the current assessments that Iran will have the necessary means to test a bomb in 6 months are correct, then Israel is not going to sit and wait for the political crisis in Iran to work itself out. By then it may be too late and I do not see them taking that risk.

Furthermore the Iranian regime has lost its crediblity and it would be very hard for any other government to take them at their word. They lie about cheating, they lie about killing people on the street, and you would expect them to not lie about their intentions in regards to the nuclear program?

I think Israel is in a very difficult situation right now. On one hand they face an existential threat and on the other hand they do not want to embolden AN and the IRGC with an eventual strike.

If I were them I would have my troops ready to act within a very short notice, and only do so if I had concrete info that Iran was on the verge of putting the bomb together.

The_Referee · Jul 21, 2009

I do not buy the existential threat talk and assessment at all.

A bomb won't be ready in Iran at least before Iran masters full enrichment capabilities for years. Even then they can hardly conceal a bomb making process, which is a lengthy process in itself. It is unlikely that they can do anything in the next decade let alone six months.

Remember that how many times we have heard these assessments. I think they are all BS.
They are not less ridiculous than AN claiming 16 year old enriching Uranium in her basement!!!

footballeirani · Jul 21, 2009

The assessment is coming from two diplomats attached to the UN Nuclear Watchdog who shared it with Associated Press.

Perhaps we should wait for Fars news to gives us a better account of what is happening.

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As he prepares for his trip to Israel next week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates is leaking his objections to any Israeli operation to prevent Iran from crossing that nuclear weapons threshold:

..senior US defense official has told The Jerusalem Post that an Israeli strike on Iran could be profoundly destabilizing and would affect US interests.

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Southern Nevadans were warned last week that 62 warplanes would take off twice a day from Nellis Air Force Base, home of 414th Combat US Training Squadron northwest of Las Vegas in the latest 11-day Red Flag exercise. They would see (and hear) Israeli and US Air force fighter-bombers in dogfights and bombing raids.
DEBKAfile's militarys sources say the size of the Nellis air base, 111 kilometers long by 190 kilometers broad, enables large groups of aircraft to practice combat missions in wide spaces unavailable to their air crews at home.
A large number of Israeli F-16C fighter-bombers from IAF Squadron 110 are taking advantage of the opportunity for mock combat drills in large groups and bombing missions with live ordnance. They flew in directly from home base, refueling on the way.
The group is split in two - friendly "Blue Air" and enemy "Red Air" - to practice "Red Flag Measurement and Debriefing system" - RFMDS - which simulates real combat conditions.
US F-16CGs of the Ohio Air National Guard will join Israeli craft in interdict missions for intercepting and downing enemy planes. Also taking part are US E-3 spy planes and US and British 135 transports.
DEBKAfile's military sources report that the Nevada exercise, which ends July 24, is not related to any Israeli plans for striking Iran's nuclear facilities except from affording its air crews valuable experience in flight and combat over broad spaces.

eshghi · Jul 21, 2009

footballeirani said:

FI jAn, every expert analysis I've read over the last 2-3 years about a possible attack by Israel on Iran -and there have been many by well-known military think tanks - has suggested that a limited, small-scale military operation will essetially be meaningless and a very temporary set-back. If anything, it will only further Iran's resolve to build a bomb even if they do not intend to do it now. Regardless of how large or small an operation, you can be absolutely certain that Iran will retaliate, and according to these experts, Iran has enough options at its disposal to spread the conflict way beyond its borders.

The_Referee · Jul 21, 2009

There have been many assessments so far and all proven BS.
Read the following and you see how assessments can go wrong:

Iran Nuclear Assessment May Have Been Tainted By Iranian ...

Also read the guardian's report :

Daryl Kimball, the head of the Arms Control Association in Washington argued that Iran's LEU stockpile was not the most worrying aspect of the new IAEA report.

"The report shows that Iran is slowly amassing an LEU stockpile but that stockpile we must remember is safeguarded. Iran can't divert that quantity without being very obvious," Kimball said.

"What should be of concern is that the IAEA is becoming less able to provide an accurate picture of what is going on. We don't know where centrifuges are being manufactured and whether they are being delivered to Natanz or somewhere else. And we cannot remotely see what is happening at [a] heavy water facility under construction at Arak, and whether that is being used for peaceful purposes."

So you see bombing Natanz or any nuclear fascilities will not be at all anything but a gift to AN.
And I really doubt there is another place that IAEA does not know. It is next to impossible to conceal anything regarding these in Iran. Remember how easily information leaks out from Iran and out of IRI.

That is why I do not buy any assessments and I do believe it is all hyped out the same way Saddam's WMD was hyped up. IRI thugs loves it too as: 1. They love confrontations. 2. They are stupid enough to think these things are smart.

joonevar22 · Jul 21, 2009

before i use to think hell no...but know it doesnt matter to me anymore that country has foreign intruders in it already the arabs y not add the jews and yankees as well.wtf

Chief · Jul 21, 2009

Globalist Think Tank Trots Out Iran Attack Scenario

Kurt Nimmo
InfowarsJuly 20, 2009
In a hare-brained nightmare scenario dreamed up by the Center for Strategic and International Studies — home-base for neocon crackpots such as Michael Ledeen and war criminals of Madeleine Albright’s caliber — Iran manages to produce a nuclear weapon and drops it on Israel, ultimately killing 800,000 people. “Retaliatory Israeli nuclear strikes, with higher-yield bombs and accurate rocket delivery systems, would be far more destructive,” writes Peter Goodspeed for the National Post. “A full-fledged Israeli nuclear response, using some, but not all, of its 200 nuclear weapons, would target most major Iranian cities and major military bases. It would kill 16 million to 28 million people within three weeks.”

Fallout From Nuclear Attack on Natanz and Isfahan. With scale showing levels of radiation exposure. Over a few days, exposure at greater than 10 rems per hour will cause death, and at 1 rem per hour exposures lead to radiation sickness.
It is estimated Israel has around 400 nuclear weapons. As Israeli arms technician Mordecai Vanunu revealed in 1986, the Israelis have produced 100 to 200 advanced fission bombs and have mastered a thermonuclear design. In 1986, it appeared to have a number of thermonuclear bombs ready for use. According to the Institute for Defense Analyses, Israel’s facilities at Soreq and Dimona have the same mission as the Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore and Oak Ridge National Laboratories in the United States. More than twenty years ago, Israel was developing the computer “codes which will enable them to make hydrogen bombs.”
Meanwhile, Iran is not up to speed, never mind the scary science fiction story weaved by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Iran did manage to enrich a small amount of uranium using a cascade of 164 centrifuges that spin uranium hexafluoride gas at supersonic speed. The enriched uranium that Iran produced cannot be used in a nuclear weapon because it contains just 3.5% U-235, whereas a nuclear weapon typically requires highly-enriched uranium that contains more than 90% U-235.
Never mind highly-enriched uranium – Iran has problems with low-enriched uranium. Earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had badly underestimated previous assessments of how much low-enriched material it had produced. The IAEA stressed that technical constraints and equipment inefficiencies would prevent Iran from further refining the low-enriched uranium into an adequate supply of weapon-grade material.
However, this has not stopped Israel and the neocons from hysterically claiming Iran has “enough enriched uranium fissionable material to manufacture at least one or two atom bombs of the Hiroshima type,” as Uri Dan wrote for the Jerusalem Post in early 2006. If it didn’t have the nuclear material for a couple crude bombs, “Iranian President Ahmadinejad would not have dared come out with his declaration that Israel should be wiped off the map,” claims Rafi Eitan, key architect of Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Mossad (the operative motto for Mossad is: “By way of deception, thou shalt do war,” according to Victor Ostrovsky, a former Mossad agent).
As it turns out, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not call for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” as Eitan, the neocons, and most of the corporate media (most notably the New York Times) repeatedly and dishonestly claim. Ahmadinejad’s speech was deliberately mistranslated by MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute, a Mossad front masquerading as a news service. “Starting with Juan Cole, and going via the New York Times’ experts through MEMRI to the BBC’s monitors, the consensus is that Ahmadinejad did not talk about any maps,” Jonathan Steele wrote for the Guardian in June, 2006. Ahmadinejad did not talk attacking Israel. He made a vague wish for the end of political Zionism — which is, of course, for some the same as attacking Israel with a nuclear bomb.
The ludicrous Center for Strategic and International Studies report — coauthored by the former director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Anthony Cordesman — has appeared in the wake of the dismal failure by Israeli and U.S. intelligence to sabotage the Iranian elections and foment a “color revolution.” It is also designed to coincide with Israel’s provocative Red Sea military exercises that are a rehearsal for an attack on Iran. “Defense experts in Israel said … that the naval activity had been publicized with the intent of sending a message to Iran,” the Telegraph reported last week.
In the real world, the only nuclear threat in the Middle East is the one posed by Israel. If Israel follows through on its threat — increasingly likely with the passing of each week — to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the result will be catastrophic. In the aftermath of an attack, “huge amounts of radioactive material will be lofted into the air to contaminate the people of Iran and surrounding countries,” explains Dr. Helen Caldicott, who consulted with an eminent international authority on nuclear weapons. “This fallout will induce cancers, leukemia, and genetic disease in these populations for years to come, both a medical catastrophe and a war crime of immense proportions,” she writes in her book, “Nuclear Power Is Not The Answer,” published in 2007. She cites the example of Chernobyl.

Finally, as analysts note, conventional weapons will not be effective against Iran’s underground nuclear materials storage site and uranium conversion plant at Isfahan and the underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. “Iranian officials have acknowledged the Isfahan facility is specifically designed to be impervious to conventional attack, making it a prime nuclear target. The Natanz plant is buried between 18 and 23 meters below the surface, making it a difficult target for conventional attack. For this scenario, we modeled attacks, each with three B61-11 earth-penetrating nuclear weapons set to explode with a yield of 340kt. Meteorological models in the HPAC were used to determine the distribution pattern of fallout,” write Physicians for Social Responsibility.

“From our map [above] we can see that within 48 hours, fallout would cover much of Iran, most of Afghanistan and spread on into Pakistan and India. Fallout from the use of a burrowing weapon such as the B61-11 would be worse than from a surface or airburst weapon, due to the extra radioactive dust and debris ejected from the blast site. In the immediate area of the two attacks, our calculations show that within 48 hours, an estimated 2.6 million people would die.” In the wider area, over 10.5 million people would be exposed to significant radiation from fallout. “In the immense fallout zone, very few people would have access to adequate medical care, increasing the potential number of casualties of an attack. From studies conducted after the use of nuclear weapons against Japan we know that there would also be a severe psychological trauma for the affected population, which would further exacerbate negative health outcomes for attack victims.”
The Saudis are taking the threat seriously. In 2008, the Saudi Shura Council — comprised of an elite group making decisions for the autocratic inner circle — prepared “national plans to deal with any sudden nuclear and radioactive hazards that may affect the kingdom following experts’ warnings of possible attacks on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactors,” according to the kingdom’s leading newspaper, Okaz. In September of 2008, Israel also began preparing civilians for the inevitability of radiation exposure.
Israel and the United States are ready to accept this massive death toll and radioactive contamination in order to “send a message” to Iran. In addition to millions of initial deaths, an Israeli attack – naturally conducted with U.S. participation — would deal a death blow to the global economy and kick off a third world war (the neocons like to call this the “fourth world war,” the third being the so-called Cold War).

footballeirani · Jul 23, 2009

military sources report a serious setback in Israel's defenses against Iranian ballistic missiles. Thursday, July 23, the newly upgraded Arrow II missile defense system, poised for its first long-range test at the US Pacific range off the central California coast, could not be launched because of "interceptor problems." This left Israel's key defense system, designed to intercept long-range Iranian or Syrian missiles 1,000 kilometers from their launch point, unproven.
The Israeli defense establishment said the problems preventing the launch came from "malfunctions in the communications system."
The Pentagon statement puts it differently: In a test involving three US missile interceptors [Patriot, Thaad and Aegis], Arrow tracked a target missile dropped from a C-17 [Boeing Globemaster III] aircraft. The Israeli system also exchanged data on the target in real time with elements of the US missile defense system.
"Not all test conditions to launch the Arrow Interceptor were met and it was not launched," the Pentagon said. Other objectives were achieved and the results are being analyzed.

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That should perhaps delay things?

sarbaz · Jul 23, 2009

This all bunch a mombo jombo
Israel is not capable and will not attack Iran without USA's help and blessing and I can promisse you this aint gona happen.
An attack on Iran will be political and geopolitical suicide for both Obama and Israel.

An Israeli attack on Iran may be imminent?

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