. Mr. Thick I think you may be overestimating Iran's power. Iran is balanced on very weak foundation. Often when a country or a person is swaggering most they are closest to the brink of a major fall. Just look at how the US was behaving and was being perceived right after the Iraqi invasion and now. Economically Iran is extremely volnurable, strategically it has no friends except a few ass broke countries in South America and Africa, and most importantly, it has very weak moral ground with rampant corruption and extreme oppression. Ironically since AN-Sepah coup just as he has been talking bigger and bigger Iran has gotten more and more vulnerable by the month. It just takes time for reality to hit home; hype will always fade. Just wait a few years and watch.
The only reason Iran is floating is because of oil prices. There has been no significant oil field development since the Shah's. Iran is still living on back of the work done during the Shah's. Oil production has now started to slowly decline. Iran will sooner or later have to pay for the insane hand outs of AN in the past two years to his Sepahi friends, many many times the amount Rafsanjani ever stole, that has resulted in extreme pressure on the poor exactly the opposite of his claims.
If Saudi Arabia wishes too, it can just squeeze Iran by just turning up oil production a notch or two. Just wait a few years and watch.
The only reason Iran is floating is because of oil prices. There has been no significant oil field development since the Shah's. Iran is still living on back of the work done during the Shah's. Oil production has now started to slowly decline. Iran will sooner or later have to pay for the insane hand outs of AN in the past two years to his Sepahi friends, many many times the amount Rafsanjani ever stole, that has resulted in extreme pressure on the poor exactly the opposite of his claims.
If Saudi Arabia wishes too, it can just squeeze Iran by just turning up oil production a notch or two. Just wait a few years and watch.
Aziz, man az khodame een pofyazo zoodtar berand.
However, politics is not ALL oil/money. Iran has established strong contacts with guerrilla/rogue elements in many of the neighboring and Persian Gulf countries so those countries wont think twice of squeezing Iran as those around us are even more fragile than Irans government. U.S knows this as does Israel, which is why you will never see a direct conflict between Iran - Israel unless its something close to world war 3 which does seem possible these days.
However, politics is not ALL oil/money. Iran has established strong contacts with guerrilla/rogue elements in many of the neighboring and Persian Gulf countries so those countries wont think twice of squeezing Iran as those around us are even more fragile than Irans government. U.S knows this as does Israel, which is why you will never see a direct conflict between Iran - Israel unless its something close to world war 3 which does seem possible these days.
My point was not necessarily from the view of wishing IR to go. My point is that circumstances have allowed IR to be seen as stronger than fundamentals merit it. Fundamentals always win in the long run. Hype comes and goes. And IR's fundamentals are weak and have gotten weaker not stronger. Yes, you are right that they have in fact done very well in bribing and exploiting other destructive rogue elements throughout the region. But they will turn on them on flip of a coin.
There are four pillars to political power, 1) killing, 2) money, 3) moral grounds, 4) foreign help. Fundamentally, IR has gotten weaker in 3 out of 4 of these and I agree that it has gotten stronger in number 1. Short-term, it has gotten much stronger in 2, due to the spike in oil prices, it has gotten much stronger in 4 due to the unintentional help it got from the US. This is why there is so much talk about Iran's new found power. But these are short-term events and will fade. The fundamentals have gotten significantly worse in fact in 2, 3, and 4. This will show up in time. There is no escape. Just wait and watch, I will be watching along with you.
Lastly, it is unimportant to me if Ahmadinejad or Khomeini remain as President and Supreme Leader for life. I have nothing personal against them. They can be my guests. Just as long as they are not in a position to take away the freedom of individuals unjustly.
Like I said just wait and you will see
There are four pillars to political power, 1) killing, 2) money, 3) moral grounds, 4) foreign help. Fundamentally, IR has gotten weaker in 3 out of 4 of these and I agree that it has gotten stronger in number 1. Short-term, it has gotten much stronger in 2, due to the spike in oil prices, it has gotten much stronger in 4 due to the unintentional help it got from the US. This is why there is so much talk about Iran's new found power. But these are short-term events and will fade. The fundamentals have gotten significantly worse in fact in 2, 3, and 4. This will show up in time. There is no escape. Just wait and watch, I will be watching along with you.
Lastly, it is unimportant to me if Ahmadinejad or Khomeini remain as President and Supreme Leader for life. I have nothing personal against them. They can be my guests. Just as long as they are not in a position to take away the freedom of individuals unjustly.
Like I said just wait and you will see
I agree with you in a way but i really wish politics was as easy as 2x2=4. It does get more complicated in our region due to people being superstitious and having strong one sided religious beliefs. To be honest with you though, i don't see Iran changing dramatically in the next 5-10 years. I would say we have to wait for the older generation to pass on....