Iran's eventual fate

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
3,648
334
this was a planned deployment so there is nothing extraordinary about it.
there are 2 events that makes this intersting.
first,the mini war over the weekend in isreal which pitted iran's u17 team
vs the main team from iran's enemies.and the enemy could not take the
pain for more than 2 days and begged for a ceasefire.
second,iran will annouce on wednesday that it will not follow the jcpoa
as it has in the last 3 years.they will start testing new centrifuges and
will enrich uranium to a higher level.
my guess is by the fall iran will go all in and pull out of jcpoa and out
of npt as whole.that will give them the upper hand if there is any negotiations
in the future.
 

siavash_8

Bench Warmer
Mar 26, 2006
2,496
2,441
Right now
1 dollar = 150000 rial
upper hand if there is any negotiations
in the future LOOOL
DOROGH MIGI ROOZAT BATEL MISHE KE
 

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
3,648
334
this was a planned deployment so there is nothing extraordinary about it.
there are 2 events that makes this intersting.
first,the mini war over the weekend in isreal which pitted iran's u17 team
vs the main team from iran's enemies.and the enemy could not take the
pain for more than 2 days and begged for a ceasefire.
second,iran will annouce on wednesday that it will not follow the jcpoa
as it has in the last 3 years.they will start testing new centrifuges and
will enrich uranium to a higher level.
my guess is by the fall iran will go all in and pull out of jcpoa and out
of npt as whole.that will give them the upper hand if there is any negotiations
in the future.
well as expected iran announced a partial non-compliance with the jcpoa exactly
one year after the usa withdrew from it.

it gives 60 days to france,germany and uk to get their act together.meanwhile iran
will not comply with production limits on heavy water and enriched uranium as stated
in the jcpoa.

after this period if iran still sees non compliance from the eu trio it will give thtem
another 60 day window to perform.in this 60 day period iran will not comply with
the enrichment limit(3.67%) and will resume work on arak heavy water reactor.

this carefully calibrated and gradual plan seems to be designed to put maximum
pressure on france,germany and the uk to choose between confronting the american'
unilateral sanctions or pull out of the jcpoa all together.

iran made sure they have russia on their side by sending javad zarif to moscow when
they announcement was made in tehran.they must have secured a veto from russia
in case any anti-iran resolutions are sent to the unsc.

this gives trump and his sidekicks 4 months to put up or shut up as far as their regime
change fantasy is concerned.it's going to be a pretty hot summer for all sides but my
prediction is by the time football season starts in september trump will be doing a
pretty comprehensive house cleaning and getting rid of the incompetent fools that
are advising him,that is if he wants to get relected and if he is not planning to pull
a mousavi/karrobi stunt and refuse to accept defeat with a 'where is my vote' encore
by his supports come nov 2020.
 

A8K

Ball Boy
Oct 22, 2016
3,032
516
fuck.ir
Business leaders outside of communist and authoritarian regimes showed no interest in even being in the same room as Iranian business leaders at the country’s premier energy conference. Just last year, 600 foreign companies from 38 countries were registered. This year the number of companies registered shrank by almost 90 percent.

Europe, too, can get on board by scrapping its sanctions-busting scheme to facilitate trade. Individual nations can shrink Iran’s diplomatic presence by ordering Tehran to reduce its staffs to a bare minimum and can continue exploring ways to constrainIran’s “rapidly improving” and illegal ballistic missile program.

These are all signs that Iran is weaker today than it was a year ago and therefore less likely to risk confrontation with America. And yet, there is more to be done. Greater financial pressure on the regime affects its cost-benefit analysis of continuing the behaviors that have led to its economic isolation.

The U.S. has the regime’s economy on its heels. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged as much in his address Wednesday calling for fresh negotiations.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opini...-nuclear-deal-has-been-vindicated-ncna1003091
 

siavash_8

Bench Warmer
Mar 26, 2006
2,496
2,441
تو برجام بگوزی سه بار اکو میده از بس کسی توش نیست بعد اینا از ترس کونشون هنوز توش موندن

و رفیق ما میگه ایران دست بالاتر و داره تو مذاکرات بعدی
خب داداشا وقتی گنده گوزی میکنید فکر این روزا هم باشید
 
Likes: A8K
تو برجام بگوزی سه بار اکو میده از بس کسی توش نیست بعد اینا از ترس کونشون هنوز توش موندن

و رفیق ما میگه ایران دست بالاتر و داره تو مذاکرات بعدی
خب داداشا وقتی گنده گوزی میکنید فکر این روزا هم باشید


کی گفته ایران دست بالاتر رو داره؟ فقط یه مشنگی مثل ژنرال رشتی میتونه اینطوری فکر کنه

دو روز بعد از اینکه ترامپ تحریم هارو اعمال کرد اینا ظریف رو فرستادن آمریکا بهش هم اختیار کامل دادن بره خایه مالی.

الان هم داره در به در میزانه یه امتیزاتی بگیر. تهدید خروج از برجام کرده. ریدن به خودشون.
 

siavash_8

Bench Warmer
Mar 26, 2006
2,496
2,441
یک بار دیگر بیلاخ غرب به جاکشای اسلامی

اتحادیه اروپا هر گونه «مهلت» از جانب ایران درباره توافق هسته‌ای را رد کرد

اتحادیه اروپا در واکنش به مهلت ۶۰ روزه ایران برای اجرای تعهدات بانکی و نفتی اعلام کرد هیچ ضرب‌الاجلی را از سوی تهران نمی‌پذیرد/ فارس
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
38,689
1,023
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
It's a harsh slap of reality for Iranians as a nation. I see more and more people finally starting to realize what a weak, dishonest, backward and insignificant country Iran as a whole has become. Hopefully some of them will teach their children to make honesty, humility and hard-work pillars of their existence instead of dallali, gondeh-goozi or Namaz-Roozeh or looking for handouts. I doubt it though.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,202
155
Iran is definitely in real trouble.

Iran gave everything away in JCPOA (basically in return for releasing 80 billion of its money)

It would take Iran another three years to get to where iran was before JCPOA (in terms of Arak reactor).

Then it would take another 3 years of negotiations after that to get anywhere in terms of a deal.

But the Iranian economy would not be able to withstand all that pressure.

so the governing regime has been stuck like anybody else as what to do for the past 1.5 years.

do we punt on JCPOA fully and embrace the North korea route. that would be one option. because that is where the U.S has been pushing iran toward for quite a while.

do do we hope that we can muddle through and eventually find some holes where we can do business with some Chinese businesses or what not.


the hard-liners in iran took too long. did not use a good hand to do a deal back in 2010.
they waited until the economy went to the shitter back in 2013.

the "reformers" came in power and gave everything away in return for not much from Obama.

the whole nuclear deal negotiation has been a classic showcase of how the governing regime is always
too late to take the right path. and when they do take the right path, they take it with too much velocity.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
38,689
1,023
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
do we punt on JCPOA fully and embrace the North korea route. that would be one option.
That would not be an option at all.

North Korea for all intents and purpose is a sparsely populated island nation whose leaders are very much trusted if not worshiped by the majority. They've been swimming against the current because they COULD and China+Russia allowed them to.

Iran is a clusterfuck of many different interest groups with neighbors who will tear Iran into pieces at the earliest chance possible. The government (specially Rohani's) is only as good as its hand-outs and is not trusted by even their own supporters. It's not liked by any of the superpowers and hasn't played nice with anyone for well over 50 years (starting with Shah's bullying of the region during the oil boom).

Plus! Iran is nowhere near North Korea's nuclear and missile production capabilities.

Iran can't be a North Korea.
 
Nov 10, 2002
8,238
349
That would not be an option at all.

North Korea for all intents and purpose is a sparsely populated island nation whose leaders are very much trusted if not worshiped by the majority. They've been swimming against the current because they COULD and China+Russia allowed them to.

Iran is a clusterfuck of many different interest groups with neighbors who will tear Iran into pieces at the earliest chance possible. The government (specially Rohani's) is only as good as its hand-outs and is not trusted by even their own supporters. It's not liked by any of the superpowers and hasn't played nice with anyone for well over 50 years (starting with Shah's bullying of the region during the oil boom).

Plus! Iran is nowhere near North Korea's nuclear and missile production capabilities.

Iran can't be a North Korea.
Based on what ?
 

siavash_8

Bench Warmer
Mar 26, 2006
2,496
2,441
IMG_20190510_212204_831.jpg

حداقل دستمزد کارگران از ۴٠٠ دلاردرسال١٣٨٩ به حدود ١٠٠ دلار در اسفند١٣٩٧ سقوط کرده است

Fuck islamic republic and all their supporters
 

A8K

Ball Boy
Oct 22, 2016
3,032
516
fuck.ir
12 conditions set by sepah/abassi to meet with satan

1- US to shut down all its porn sites.... LMFAO .. it seem to be a real issue in muslim country.. (whoever gave control of our contry to these fuckheads gotta get shot)



someone tell this mofo it's 1398 and you're ass about to be smoked.
 

Hooshmand

National Team Player
Oct 12, 2011
8,181
731
UK
12 conditions set by sepah/abassi to meet with satan

1- US to shut down all its porn sites.... LMFAO .. it seem to be a real issue in muslim country.. (whoever gave control of our contry to these fuckheads gotta get shot)



someone tell this mofo it's 1398 and you're ass about to be smoked.

LoL This idiot is a laughing stock
 
May 9, 2004
15,067
175
کی گفته ایران دست بالاتر رو داره؟ فقط یه مشنگی مثل ژنرال رشتی میتونه اینطوری فکر کنه

دو روز بعد از اینکه ترامپ تحریم هارو اعمال کرد اینا ظریف رو فرستادن آمریکا بهش هم اختیار کامل دادن بره خایه مالی.

الان هم داره در به در میزانه یه امتیزاتی بگیر. تهدید خروج از برجام کرده. ریدن به خودشون.

تو مثل اینکه تو باغ نیستی که پیغام و پسغام فرستاده
ترامپ مسخره شده حتی اینجا همه دارن برای هم این جک ترامپ و منتظر تلفن ماندن و شماره دادن رو برای هم میفرستند به زبان فارسی عربی انگلیسی و هندی و و غیره
:D
 

Attachments

تو مثل اینکه تو باغ نیستی که پیغام و پسغام فرستاده
ترامپ مسخره شده حتی اینجا همه دارن برای هم این جک ترامپ و منتظر تلفن ماندن و شماره دادن رو برای هم میفرستند به زبان فارسی عربی انگلیسی و هندی و و غیره
:D
به نظرت برای چی این کارو کرده؟ بگو باز بهت بخندیم.

مشنگ، ترامپ میدونه آخوندا اینکارو نمیکنن. می‌خواد بهانه رو ازشون بگیره. خیلی شوتی بخدا
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,202
155
Given enough time and money everything is possible.

But Iranian people do not have the patience that they once did.

Iran technically has enough money and reserves to manage food-stamp economy.

but the government is hesitant to take that option because it doesn't know what the society's boiling point is.

-----back to negotiations----

some experts Argue that iran never really was all that serious about the Nuclear program.

They argue the Nuclear program was designed so iran give away something away in the negotiations.

Iran's concerns is this time in the negotiations it has to give away something much more important (missiles, Lebanon ...)

you can now go back and argue well that what Yemen is for. Iran does not really care about yemen that much.

it is card to give away in a negotiation.

if history is a guide for our future. iran will possibly wait for u.s elections.

preliminary talks will begin after 2020 U.S elections. a new Iranian Dolat will come in power

and will pretend like they have new solution to an intransigent problem.