IRI doesn't want an Iranian-style government in Iraq anyhow.

ashtar

National Team Player
Aug 17, 2003
5,448
19
#1
Some US "intelligence" and policy makers think they're so smart and that they are undermining Iran's influence in Iraq by making sure that Iraq does not adopt an Iranian-style government. However, the reality is that it is in IRI's interest that Iraq does not adopt a "vellayat e faghih" style of government and in fact Iran is doing all that it can to make sure that the Shiites get hold of the power in Iraq but do not adopt Iranian-style government.

The reason is that if Iraq were to become like Iran and some one like Ayatollah Sistani would become "vali e faghih" in Iraq then what you would have in the Shiite world would be "velaayat e foghaha" as opposed to "velaayat e faghih" (which means a compatitor and threat to Iran's Khamenei or Iran's next "vali e faghih").

Indeed what IRI prefers is a democratic government in Iraq that is dominated by Shiites who in turn take their cues from Iraqi "foghaha" who in turn take their cue from a single "vali e faghih" in Iran. That is the style of government that Iran has supported and helped implement in Lebanon. And that is the style of government that Iran is pushing for in Afghanistan and Iraq. What IRI wants in those countries is strong political leverage that who would help push for Iran's interests, not compatitors who would consider themselves the center of Islamic/Shiite world.

One can not successfully have an Islamic/Shiite empire by having an independent emperor/Amir/vali e faghih in different territories. Rather, the key to having an efficient empire is to have ONLY one emperor/Amir/Vali and then governors/proxies/allies who have enough power/influence to govern their own teritories but not enough power/influence to control the entire empire. ;)
 
Nov 29, 2002
7,295
417
#2
Sistani would never become velayate faghih in Iraq anyway, so that point is moot.
The fact is he has more brains than majority of Iranian mollahs (plus d'un oiseau) and realizes and has stated many times that politics and religion should not be mixed up and a religious state is doomed to failure.
Bad luck ashtar jAn, better luck next time
 

Saeedb

Bench Warmer
Jul 7, 2003
2,397
36
#3
Good post. Actually I have thought about this for long time. You know
1 years ago, I read an article that US believe they can change the regime form inside and the idea was the consequence of what could have happened
in Iraq. They did not write what but what you write was what I thought.
A Faghih in Iraq will officially finishes Khamenei's political role. Since IRI will
lose it's main voters.
 

IPride

National Team Player
Oct 18, 2002
5,885
0
Toronto, Canada
#5
I think a secular governement in Iraq is the last thing the Iranian regime wants.

The implementation and prosperity of a secular government in a religous society will give the Iranians the impression that it would also work in their country. Especially when an ayatollah who is above khamenei by couple of levels in terms of religous knowledge, endorses it!!

Plus, I hear Sistani has many Iranian followers in the city of Qom who look at him as "marja taghlid" rather than the ones currently there..
 

zoozanagheh

Bench Warmer
Feb 6, 2005
2,327
303
#6
You all raise interesting points. Here is my take on it:
Despite all the effort and money spent and man-power send by IR, I do not think pro-IR Iraqis have the majority and power to push for IR-like system in short term. For one thing secular forces, Sunnis and Kurds would not necessarily go for it, neither Sistani. However, that does not stop them from getting as close to it as possible for them when writing their constitution.
Of course I do not mean to over look how organized and united and at the same time rootless they - Majles Englabe Eslami, Hezb-ol-dave and Sadr, others, are. They have enough political, financial, intelligent and military support from IR. Beside assistance from IR agents and pasdars (such as sepah-e Badr) they also have 25 years of IR experience behind them. On the other hand, with US-British occupiers present, Sunnis in large are not participating in developing the new system, Kurds would work with any group that give them more control over their region (one of the main Kurdish factions, The Patriotic Union lead by Talebani, has very close ties with IR and worked with them for past several years), and seculars are not as united and their voice is lost in the mayhem. As for Sistani, eliminating him would not be out of mind, as Khoei was assassinated in early days of Sadam’s fall. These all could be important factors in shaping Iraq's system of government in long term.