Is Assad at the verge and what does his fall mean for Iran?!

Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#1
It has been a few weeks since we last talked about Syria and there have been a lot of developments since, so just wondering how much longer you think Assad will hold onto power and what his falls means for IR, Iran,and Iranians?

In case you haven't been following the Syria news in detail, the rebels have breached the ring-road encircling Damascus and are now mounting a major offencive into the centre of the city. for the 1st time Assad has been forced to bomb his capital from the air (which is almost unheard of). Until now, they had only shelled and bombed the suburbs of Damascus, so fatigue on the population (if not Assad's forces) will start to play a major role in the next few days. This NY Times article is worth reading, if you want to catch up to the latest events: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/w...n-war-closes-in-on-the-heart-of-damascus.html
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
0
United States
#2
Fall of Syria would be the biggest strategic event in the Middle East in the past 30 years. It is bigger than fall of Saddam. You take out Syria and you have removed the lynchpin that keeps the IR/Hezbollah/Hamas machinery together. Hezbollah will feel like a duck in a pond, or fish in a barrel. Take your pick. This assumes future Syria does not align itself with Iran again. That is why American leadership is so important. History has shown that you leave these rebels to their own devices and you get a bunch of thugs in power again.
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
0
United States
#3
I never thought that a bunch of so-called rebels can overthrow a state. We have seen governments overthrown by direct foreign intervention but rebels making it all the way to the capital? Imagine what it takes for some rebels in Iran to capture Karaj and shell Mehrabad. I suppose Iran has much more strategic depth than Syria but still. There is a lot we don't know. Do you have an explanation BH jaan?
 

Silverton

National Team Player
Nov 6, 2004
4,524
6
#4
I never thought that a bunch of so-called rebels can overthrow a state. We have seen governments overthrown by direct foreign intervention but rebels making it all the way to the capital? Imagine what it takes for some rebels in Iran to capture Karaj and shell Mehrabad. I suppose Iran has much more strategic depth than Syria but still. There is a lot we don't know. Do you have an explanation BH jaan?
Unfortunately, the spirit is not there in Iran. Yes, there are HUGE grievances and most people want this government to go to hell, but the fighting spirit is not there. People can hammer faith all they want (which is a neo-Iranian fad nowadays to show how "Enlightened" we have become), but these rebels have been invigorated with faith and have pushed all the way to the capital - good for them!

Syria's downfall, if other things align, will be a huge blow (maybe deathblow?) for IR and their octopus/ export revolution aims. It will weaken them inside as well, and we'll definitely see more IR parties coming to public blows ala Ahmadinejad/ Larijani showdown.
 
May 9, 2004
14,898
157
#5
جناب
قبل از اینکه به موضوع اگر سوریه به دست مخالفان بشار اسد بیافتد چه می شود و چه تاثیری بر ایران و حزب الله و در کل منطقه میگذارد باید
به عرضتان برسانم به نظر می رسد شما نمی توانید وقایع را خوب تحلیل و تفسیر کنید
یا اینکه اخبار را نمی نشنوید بجز گاهگاهی از این طرف و ان طرف
اولا این هجوم مسلحان مخالفان اسد به دمشق فقط و فقط بخاطر این بود که معاذ الخطیب که رهبر ائتلاف مخالفان اسد
اعلام کرد که حاضر است با حکومت سوریه گفتگو کند
و این باب میل بسیاری از مخالفان مسلح نبود
و این حمله تنها از ناحیه تبلیغاتی میتواند در این مقطع نتیجه بخش باشد
چون در این صورت به نظر می رسید که بشار اسد یگ گام جلو گذاشته و مخالفان از نظر سیاسی گامی به عقب برداشته اند
زیرا تا چند ماه پیش تنها محاکمه اسد و اعدام او محاکمه تمام سران رژیم سوریه بود که از طرف مخالفان به گوش می رسید
به همین خاطر و همچنین به خاطر اینکه بتوانند اگر مذاکراتی انجام شد مخالفان پوئن مثبتی داشته باشند گروهای مسلح خود را از بسیاری از اماکنی که قبلا در تصرف داشتند کشیدند و ارتش سوریه انجا را پس گرفت
و امده اند و سعی میکنند جا پایی در برخی نقاط دمشق داشته باشند
زیرا از نظر استراتژیک و همچنین پشت میز مذاکره برای حکومت سوریه قسمت هایی از دمشق مهمتر از چند دهکده و روستا و شهرک سوری است
چنانکه همین گروهای مسلح قبل از جلسه سازمان ملل همین استراتژی را به کار بردند و حتی تا قلب دمشق امدند و بعد از اینکه در سازمان ملل نتوانستند روسیه را قانع کنند
و عقب نشینی کردند زیرا تلفات زیادی میدادند
الان هم همینطور این فقط و فقط بخاطر میز مذاکره است که برگهایی در دست داشته باشند
خود گروهای مسلح هم می دانند که از نظر استراتژیکی نظامی برایشان گران تمام خواهد شد
وتسخیر دمشق حداقل الان امکان پذیر نیست
ولی شاید به انچه در پشت میز مذاکره خواهند گرفت بیارزد
حالا در مورع اصل موضوع
اگر اسد سقوط کند در سوریه هرج و مرج زیادی خواهد شد
نفوذ ایران در خاورمیانه کاهش می یابد
حزب الله در محاصره قرار می گیرد و شاید اگر اوضاع مصر به همین شکل باشد حزب مجبور است یک جنگ که شاید اخرین نبرد او باشد را با اسرائیل شروع کند
کردهای سوریه بر علیه حکومت مرکزی قیام خواهند کرد
در پی ان کردهای ترکیه هم بر علیه حکومت ترکیه به پا خواهند خواست نه مثل الان بلکه یک قیام سراسری
نفوذ اسلامگرایان در سوریه مصر باعث خواهد شد که اردن هم در مخمصه قرار گیرد و بعد از ان کم کم به ترکیه هم سرایت خواهد کرد
البته تقریبا همین اوضاعی را که در تونس و مصر می بیند در سوریه هم به همین شکل ولی با خشونمت بیشتری مشاهد خواهیم کرد
علویان در لاذقیه و شهرهای اطراف ان یک حکومت خود مختار تقریبا مانند کردها در عراق تشکیل می دهند که با مخالفت توام با خشونت وهابیون سلفی ها تند رو مواجهه خواهد شد و شاهد یک لبنان دهه هفتاد خواهیم بود
سقوط اسد از یک طرف به نفع امریکا و اسرائیل است ولی از طرف دیگر در انتهای تونل سیاهی که حفر خواهد شد معلوم نیست چه نتایجی برعلیه انها و درکل منطقه ببار خواهد اورد
 
#6
In Britain, we've not heard much from Syria over the last few weeks so I think the next headline about the country may be Assad's resignation. It is due but I think he will leave when he thinks it's right. Our definition of right was a long, long time ago but he'll resign and steer away from the limelight as if nothing has happened. Iran shouldn't be bothered by Syria but since we're experiencing change this year, this time in six months will be uncertain - have no idea if this is a good thing or a bad thing but as long as some sanctions are lifted, this would only be a decent outcome.
 

Silverton

National Team Player
Nov 6, 2004
4,524
6
#7
^^ why do you always have girls in your avatar? Sexual lust?

You know that's haram in IR, and you would be punished if caught with such a picture. But your kind perhaps don't know their own level of hypocrisy.
 

Silverton

National Team Player
Nov 6, 2004
4,524
6
#8
Heartbreaking video :( This was this February.

[video=youtube;0pFWyDn0o1o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=0pFWyDn0o1o[/video]

This young girl was singing about freedom in the streets of Syria when a bomb fell down on the people. Lots of people where killed that day.

These bastards will pay - and so will IR. Same group of kesafat mozdors.
 

artavile

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2002
3,660
2
MD, USA
#9
Syrian “issue” turned out to have a much longer lifespan that I originally anticipated. IMO there must be other dynamics (maybe not so obvious to average people) within Syria or impacting the greater ME in the play, making this even more complex than what it seems on the surface.

Is west afraid of another blood thirsty backward Moslem government taking over, mind you this time in Israel’s backyard? On the other hand, backward, unstable Islamic states around Israel is a blessing for them, with all the things going on, there will be no 2 state solution with Palestinians any time soon, settlements will continue to be built, Iran, Lebanon and Jordan all engaged and worried about spill over (with varying levels and concerned about what will happen to them eventually). :help:

And maybe Ass-ad’s faith is contingent of how west (read US) will come to an deal/understanding with IRR? Sacrifice Ass-ad, stop financial support of south Lebanon (but continue with your lip service and moral support LOL) and we (US) will leave you alone.

One thing is for sure though, Ass-ad knows his faith is in the hands of bunch low-life MF like himself, cause at the end of the day, IRR, Russia or China will deliver this long-necked MF on a silbver platter to the highest bidder. :monk1:
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#10
I never thought that a bunch of so-called rebels can overthrow a state. We have seen governments overthrown by direct foreign intervention but rebels making it all the way to the capital? Imagine what it takes for some rebels in Iran to capture Karaj and shell Mehrabad. I suppose Iran has much more strategic depth than Syria but still. There is a lot we don't know. Do you have an explanation BH jaan?
Well, it's a very messy situation and I hope it never comes down to this for Iran, but I guess we must all accept that this is an eventual inevitability if things stay on this path.

Yeah, the rebels gains in the past few months have definitely surprised a lot of people. They've been locked down in the Damascus suburbs for a few months and Aleppo has been stalemated as well, but they've been making gradual gains all over Syria since early summer, taking border crossings, airports, army bases, and whole towns. Assad's air superiority and heavy artillery (which they don't mind using indiscriminately) has definitely been a concern for the Syrian opposition this entire time, so they've mostly had to fade into the population after capturing major landmarks, rather than holding onto them. The last push into Damascus was in the summer, although it was very poorly planned and co-ordinated. This time, they seem to be a lot more determined and coordinated and their main goal (based on their news releases) has been to choke Assad's supply line into Damascus. Creating an atmosphere of fear and constant bombardment in the capital is also not going to go down well with the Assad supporters and tightening the noose in this manner, rather than a single fatal blow, will certainly weaken the regime. They've also put the offer of talks on the table, which wasn't there during the summer, hoping that Assad's inner circle will turn against him and perhaps negotiate his exit to save themselves. I think they rebels are being very smart about it.

As far as Iran is concerned, I think this will be a HUGE blow to the IR. Syria was really their only regional ally and there's absolutely NO WAY, a new Syrian regime (in case of Assad's fall) will warm up to Iran. That basically means that IR's main supply lines into Hamas and Hezbollah territory will be cut completely, Hezbollah itself will face a lot of pressure in Lebanon (with it's main backer gone) and Hamas will mostly reconcile with Fatah and turn for help to the rich Gulf Arab states who have started to throw money their way. Basically, the "axis of resistance" will be torn apart and IR's entire foreign policy focus (if not their entire ideological strong point) will come under question, not just from within, by but the entire nation. Every time, one of these revolutions is successful, Iranians will take a hard look at their situation IMHO and wonder why they're the only country that did not succeed in ridding itself of Tyranny.
 
May 9, 2004
14,898
157
#11
^^ why do you always have girls in your avatar? Sexual lust?

You know that's haram in IR, and you would be punished if caught with such a picture. But your kind perhaps don't know their own level of hypocrisy.
جناب
شما چکار اواتار بنده دارید
شما دوست دارید عکس بازیکانا را بگذارید سلیقه شما محترم
من هم دوست دارم عکس دختر بگذارم
چکار دارم که کی خوشش بیاد کی بدش بیاد
بعدا از ان این عکس شاهزاده ماریا است
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#12
The rebels have apparently captured the biggest hydro-electric dam in the country in the past few days (had not heard this before) and they just captured a major airbase East of Aleppo with intact fully operational fighter jets (i.e. they now have planes if they can fly them)!!! They are mounting an attack on another airbase North East of Aleppo - taking out Assad's base of operations for heavy artillery and aerial superiority around Aleppo for another major push into the city. The government has also announced they will meet AlKhatib (head of the SNC) outside Syria to start dialogue on reconciliation!!! And Assad's jets are continuing to bomb Damascus districts and suburbs to dislodge the rebels there. Lots of new developments and apparently a very dynamic and fast moving chain of events taking place at the moment:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE91A0MU20130212
 
May 9, 2004
14,898
157
#13
The rebels have apparently captured the biggest hydro-electric dam in the country in the past few days (had not heard this before) and they just captured a major airbase East of Aleppo with intact fully operational fighter jets (i.e. they now have planes if they can fly them)!!! They are mounting an attack on another airbase North East of Aleppo - taking out Assad's base of operations for heavy artillery and aerial superiority around Aleppo for another major push into the city. The government has also announced they will meet AlKhatib (head of the SNC) outside Syria to start dialogue on reconciliation!!! And Assad's jets are continuing to bomb Damascus districts and suburbs to dislodge the rebels there. Lots of new developments and apparently a very dynamic and fast moving chain of events taking place at the moment:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE91A0MU20130212
جناب
من فکر میکنم الان این تبلیغاتی که از طرف رسانه ها می شود اکثر بخاطر این است که چون بعد از مدتی می خواهند بروند روسیه
بتوانند روسیه راضی کنند که به رژیم اسد فشار بیاورند
والا اگر این اخبار کاملا صحیح بود الان می باسستی تمام سوریه در دست مسلحان ضد رژیم بشار اسد می بود
البته سوریه بجز ان بیست و چند فرودگاهی که دارد
دها نقطه فرود برای هواپیما و هلیکوپتر هم در سراسر سوریه هست که تا الان چند تایی از انها را در برخی مواقع مسلحان مخالف گرفته اند
بعد چون از نظر استراتژیکی مهم نبوده یا ول کرده اند و رفته اند یا عقب رانده شده اند
اگر این فرودگاه مهم بود حداقل اسم ان فرودگاه را نام می بردند
 
Nov 10, 2002
7,982
263
#14
I personally think that the fall of the Syrian regime will reduce Iran's power in the region but it won't be the end of IRI.
All the Arab countries that collapsed, didn't have a religious based government, even though the leaders pretended.
Iran, however, has religious government and a lot of supporters that work daily to make the regime stay. Since Iran had a big revenue and the regime has multiple layers, they are much stronger than all other countries in the region. There will be a lot of pressure on them in the next year but they won't collapse.
The reason is quiet simple, the Iranians are very divided on what they want. They want change but they don't know what exactly they want. They also don't have the leadership to tell them
what to want or to expect.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#15
None of those things existed in any of the Arab countries either IEI jaan. In fact, the Syrians are still lacking that cohesion and unity almost two years into this thing and with a civil war having emphasized the importance of a unified voice and opposition. Almost all of Egypt's political groups (with the exception of the Muslim Brotherhood), were formed after the revolution. I'm not saying these things will necessary happen in Iran or that the IR will fall within the next year (at least not for this reason), but these situations are very dynamic and I've continuously been surprised by how fast and unexpectedly alliances have been formed and populations mobilized in the fight against Tyranny. It would be tough to accept at this point that Iran would be an exception to the new rules.
 

beystr 2.0

Bench Warmer
Jul 9, 2006
1,983
0
#16
As far as IRI is concerned....ye if Assad reign came to a quick end....may be it was a bad....but think about it..IRI has had 2 yrs at least to plan for this senario..and now, they are well entrenched...The so called " Rebels" won't see a day where they can just sit back and take charge...

The part West apparently does not undrestand or not willing to give it any significance is that...there are long historical roots between Iranians and Syrians ..going to way back before Islam..and you just can not break this with implanting a few thugs over night..you just help pollute the already dirty waters of the region..and this brings me back to this key point...West with all their scientific advance has not really figured this fact, that in our world , aside from just slogans, we all are really and truly connected..everything is in a chain existance...so, From Alexander The gay to present Holland, Obama etc....They only know of one way and that is Barbarism to get their way...no advancement in this regard what so ever...
 

beystr 2.0

Bench Warmer
Jul 9, 2006
1,983
0
#18
Love...?

to in donyaye ke emrikayia doroost kardan ..this is how one shows "love"...

U cross the line and assassinate a Syrian General with the same bomb used in nuclear personnel terrors in tehran ...and u pay back with ur ambassador killed in action in daylight....the funny part is..Mrs Clinton and Mr. Obama and the crew who know this..comes in the senate hearings and plays phony by saying something like.." who cares who or how the ambassador was killed " and that " our job is to investigate it we are doing our best"...man...LOL..what a weak and dishonest act by this one of a kind lady...She knew right then and there....no matter what...They lost this one .
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#19
Good summary of the last 2 days' events from Washington Post:

●The al-Jarrah air base, about 30 miles east of Aleppo, which appears to have been overrun by fighters from Ahrar al-Sham, a battalion based in Idlib. Videos posted Tuesday by the rebels showed them walking past derelict Syrian warplanes and inside a fortified hangar containing what appeared to be two Czech-built ground assault planes. On camera, the rebels displayed dozens of bombs racked in a warehouse, and other ammunition and spoils of war.

●The Thawra hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates, which is one of Syria’s biggest power-generating facilities. Rebel sources said the Syrian army gave up the strategic dam after army positions there were overrun. The rebels negotiated a surrender with regime loyalists who remained. These sources said the dam continues to operate and provide power — a positive sign for those who worry that Syria’s infrastructure would collapse if the rebels took over.

●The Aleppo International Airport, southeast of the city, is close to falling. Free Syrian Army sources said Tuesday that their fighters, including allies in the extremist al-Nusra Front, had captured an access point near the airport known as “Liwa 80.” Syrian sources said rebels there had seized large amounts of ammunition, including some shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.

●Damascus and its suburbs, where the rebels are tightening their squeeze on access points to the capital. Syrian sources said fighters are converging on Damascus from different parts of the country, expecting a decisive battle there soon. “Regime forces are suffering from very low morale, whereas FSA soldiers have been encouraged by recent positive developments,” asserts one FSA report from Damascus.
 
Oct 1, 2004
8,122
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#20
Every 2 weeks papers like the NYT regurgitate rumors and at times outright lies taken from pro Saudi papers and make it seem as if Assad is about to fall. He's not.
If anything I think their opposition is planning to negotiate with Assad.