Israel hitting Syria at will, tooman tumbling, US policy choking the akhund republic ...

zoozanagheh

Bench Warmer
Feb 6, 2005
2,327
304
#21
If anything, Rohani's presidency has proven that the sanctions did not target much of ordinary people's lives in any meaningful way. Barjam was not about lifting sanctions against Iranian people. It was about releasing blocked funds and removing a handful of individuals (not even companies) from the blacklist. There was little else to it.

The people of Iran (including our extended families) are suffering (and will suffer) not because of sanctions, but because of investor sentiment towards Iran. Granted, the sanctions don't really help the matter, but smart money does not flow to Iran regardless of sanctions. Stability, productivity, logistics and infrastructure are so lacking in Iran that even during its boom years (1970-1975) it could not handle growth beyond 8% annually. Once growth reached that point, the whole thing started falling apart. In other words, it's not possible to invest in Iran for longer periods.

Investor sentiment is really all that matters in the end. Without it, Iran will remain a target of plundering for decades/centuries to come.
Very interesting and educational points for me. I am generally very clueless when it comes to economy and finances.

I guess I am just worried about the economical collapse followed by chaos, granted as long as IRI is in charge it is not getting better and we just prolong the suffering and add to the magnitude of the damage our country and nation has sustained over past four decades. A change of system is essential, but lack of proper leadership from within is worrisome. A collective leadership with democratic and secular leaning with support of those abroad would make me more hopeful to take the country and the nation towards eventual liberty, prosperity and eventual growth and development.
 
Likes: Bache Tehroon
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#22
Very interesting and educational points for me. I am generally very clueless when it comes to economy and finances.

I guess I am just worried about the economical collapse followed by chaos, granted as long as IRI is in charge it is not getting better and we just prolong the suffering and add to the magnitude of the damage our country and nation has sustained over past four decades. A change of system is essential, but lack of proper leadership from within is worrisome. A collective leadership with democratic and secular leaning with support of those abroad would make me more hopeful to take the country and the nation towards eventual liberty, prosperity and eventual growth and development.
Collective leadership comes from collective wisdom. In its current state, Iran is a joke in terms of collective wisdom/awareness.

How many times a day do you hear the phrase "Iran is a rich country" from typical Iranians? That's how misinformed and delusional they are.

Let's see how "rich" Iran really is:

Putting aside all the things Iran lacks, there's one commodity that is pretty much the entire portfolio(!!!) of Iran's economy, and that is oil. At its peak extraction rate and at peak prices, Iran can hope for an annual revenue of $150 Billion from selling oil (reality is much lower than that).

At 80 million people, Iran can only assign $1800/year to each individual from oil revenue :) That's how rich Iran is!

If you do a survey on Iranians, I'd bet more than 90% of them think they live in a rich country where oil revenue should afford them a semi-luxurious lifestyle without much need for actual work. How do you think collective leadership could emerge from such a society?

All is not lost though. Thanks to extreme fuck ups and a delusional society, Iran is actually ripe for labor plundering. A devalued rial, and high unemployment makes Iran a great place to implement modern slavery shops much like those in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and India. The problem is 2 things:
1. Lack of stability (Investor's worst nightmare)
2. Iran's general worker's productivity rate is still far below the global norm. (Investor's diminished returns)

Improving those two can actually turn this shit around for future generations to benefit. Don't get your hopes up though. There's a 3rd problem that will not go away anytime soon:

3. Islam
 
Likes: zoozanagheh

zoozanagheh

Bench Warmer
Feb 6, 2005
2,327
304
#23
Collective leadership comes from collective wisdom. In its current state, Iran is a joke in terms of collective wisdom/awareness.

How many times a day do you hear the phrase "Iran is a rich country" from typical Iranians? That's how misinformed and delusional they are.

Let's see how "rich" Iran really is:

Putting aside all the things Iran lacks, there's one commodity that is pretty much the entire portfolio(!!!) of Iran's economy, and that is oil. At its peak extraction rate and at peak prices, Iran can hope for an annual revenue of $150 Billion from selling oil (reality is much lower than that).

At 80 million people, Iran can only assign $1800/year to each individual from oil revenue :) That's how rich Iran is!

If you do a survey on Iranians, I'd bet more than 90% of them think they live in a rich country where oil revenue should afford them a semi-luxurious lifestyle without much need for actual work. How do you think collective leadership could emerge from such a society?

All is not lost though. Thanks to extreme fuck ups and a delusional society, Iran is actually ripe for labor plundering. A devalued rial, and high unemployment makes Iran a great place to implement modern slavery shops much like those in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and India. The problem is 2 things:
1. Lack of stability (Investor's worst nightmare)
2. Iran's general worker's productivity rate is still far below the global norm. (Investor's diminished returns)

Improving those two can actually turn this shit around for future generations to benefit. Don't get your hopes up though. There's a 3rd problem that will not go away anytime soon:

3. Islam
I heard that Iran is estimated to have its natural resources valued at $27.3 trillion (5th in the world).

One the biggest crimes and acts of treason this regime, starting with both Khomeini and Khamenei, has committed is to abandon the family plan the previous regime, led by Farah Pahlavi, had established to control the population growth. The program included education awareness at different levels of society and parts of the country, and was advertised on media as well as on billboards and street walls with the famous slogan of "Two Child is Enough" دو تا بچه کافیهه .

In contrast both Khomeini and Khamenei reinforced the idea of having big families by issuing fatwa-like orders and advise, citing Islam and offering financial incentives to produce more foot soldiers for their ideology and theocratic regime with the support of rest of the clergy affiliated to the establishment and non-clergy IRI officials. Hence in less than 40 years our population grow from 30-35 million to 80-85 million despite some efforts to slow the growth down during Khatami era (if I am not mistaken) and despite all the loss of lives during the war, and due to immigration to abroad.
 
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A8K

Elite Member
Oct 22, 2016
3,036
520
fuck.ir
#24
^ I am also for that argument but at times you hear or read how specifics of sanctions make certain medical good unavailable or on back order and that's when it hurts you the most.