It's been 6 months. What about 1 year?

[RoozbehAzadi]

I'm surprised at how the protests and demonstrations became stronger so quickly. I expected the point that was reached at Ashura to happen by perhaps 1 - 2 years from the (s)election. Looking forward to 1 year from the (s)election, or 6 months from now, I'm just wondering what you guys think will happen.

Different possibilities:

1) status quo remains unchanged, people demonstrate, government keeps arresting and killing, and Poop&Burrito stay in power; also, Iran doesn't change in relations with other countries either

2) people keep demonstrating, artesh joins the people, most of sepah joins the people soon afterwards, nuke talks put on hold, more and more people keep coming out, Burrito and Antarishitjob escape to North Korea/Venezuela/Cuba/Zimbabwe, Larijani shaves his beard and pretends he's a tourist

3) crackdown becomes worse, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and eventually Rafsanjani arrested and sentenced to life, thousands of people killed, basij starts firing machine guns into crowds, helicopters start bombing demonstrators, because of state of emergency declared all future (s)elections put on hold, Iran becomes fully sanctioned by the UN, and is starting on a real war path with the US

Personally, I don't think it'll be any of these exactly but they just represent the extremes. My personal estimate:

Demonstrations keep happening at public events, like anniversaries and such. More and more people, including many who voted for Poop or supported him before, feel the system needs to be changed completely. Mousavi and Karroubi are placed under house arrest, Khatami is untouched but his brother is arrested to put pressure on him. The US fails to get Russia and China to vote for sanctions and ends up getting the EU and Japan to fully sanction Iran as well. People become more fearless and keep coming out despite the real threat of death, but protests become more and more violent, with molotov cocktails, perhaps even firearms, being used by youth. The provinces aren't able to be controlled anymore, with Kurdish and Turkic areas revolting a lot more openly, and perhaps with active armed resistance. Rafsanjani is totally quiet but he and most former politicians in Iran know that the IRI's time is up. The regime starts avoiding more pro-government rallies because people have snuck into these posing as pro-regime, much like in Romania, and then overwhelmed the minority actually supporting Poop. Arab countries start uniting against Iran on the Yemen issue much more than before. Obama has decided he might have to order air strikes on Iran's nuke facilities, but hasn't made a final decision on how hard to hit. He also would probably make sure that Iran can't hit back with countermeasures like Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia and China aren't so strong with Iran anymore and UN sanctions are a realistic possibility in the near future. More and more of Artesh and Sepah leave and join the people, taking their weapons with them. Universities are ordered closed for the next year, and there's absolutely no opposition or reformist newspaper. Many bazaaris strike throughout Iran but they don't last long enough yet, and they don't yet have the support of the factory and oil workers to the extent they need. Unemployment in Iran is hovering at 25-30% and inflation has reached 40%. Because of sanctions, the Rial is 15,000 to the Dollar. The brain drain increases dramatically, and European and American universities start seeing more and more applications from young Iranian students.

Basically, at this point, the regime probably has 6 months or at most 1 more year before it completely loses power. I don't see a real leader emerging, but that this is simply a people movement with scattered leaders who symbolize the movement but don't dictate its terms.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

#3 and the rest of your post is inevitable.

That's the only thing that can happen and then the final phase of the revolution which means lots of violence and blood.

This fight will not be won peacefully. There will be blood.

 

[Mr Thick]

Yes, there will be blood.

 

[Thinkpad]

was thinking about the same thing just yesterday: if someone told you last year that people would be chanting marg bar khamenei in tehran, I would not have believed it. I would also think people would have quit by now. But things have progressed, people are not as scared and they are willing to come out and be heard, beaten, shot at and jailed. Sadly, this regime will not go away without killing as many as possible. They have a vested interest that they will protect with their brainwashed goons and hired guns. lots of blood will be shed, but if people keep at it, who knows where we will be in a years time.

 

[ChaharMahal]

I have never been able to foresee what will happen in Iran in short term.
one can see long term trends (in 5-10 years). but in one year it is difficult to tell exactly how things will play out.

one thing we can pray for is low oil prices.

 

[arash_kaman]

chaharshanbe souri and nowrouz will be very big and deciding factors

 

[Niloufar]

Basically, at this point, the regime probably has 6 months or at most 1 more year before it completely loses power. I don't see a real leader emerging, but that this is simply a people movement with scattered leaders who symbolize the movement but don't dictate its terms.

Perfectly analysed as always Roozbeh.
I'd personally hope #2 scenario occurs instead of #3, and that depends on amount of foreign pressure to remove the regime before they get their hands on Nukes and stop spreading terrorism damage to western countries more than it is now, which is directly and indirectly is supported by IR govt.

If IR officials are left on their own by foreign countries and those countries let our ppl topple the regime and they watch from outside(as they were doing up until today), then IR will do anything in its power to crush protesters and that'll be such a bloody battle(I read in news today that IR is planning to execute/cut heads for protesters in the street since they just labled them as acting "Against God").

Technically, if we compare #2 and #3 and its pros-cons for western countries' interest, it'd make them look bad too if they let IR attempt mass murders throughout Iran streets, while Western countries just condemn it verbally without any political-economical pressure on IR.

I mean after all, after IR's downfall, these countries want to have a 'good image' among Iranian ppl to start investing in Iran's (future)economy,it makes business-sense, no?!

 

[RoozbehAzadi]

Nilu-jan, Iran will be bigger than China in terms of investment if the regime changes. 10 years ago Iranians outside of Iran had $600 Billion in net worth. Now after many more have left, that number is probably close to $1 Trillion. Add to that all the oil companies that will compete to bring Iran up to date(as compared to how Iran has to import gasoline right now), and how Iran is the most educated country in the mideast, and you have an economic firecracker. People will be talking about the Persian Economic Lion rather than the Asian Tiger. I'm completely serious, within 10 years of a democratic regime, if the right people in management are put into place, which would be highly probable given the number of economists and leading businessmen Iran has, Iranians would reach levels of income equal to Portugal or Czech Republic, and within 20 years Iran would be on par with Italy or Spain in terms of per capita income. Given the intelligence of the people it can even go further and even exceed France and the UK eventually. I have absolutely no doubt on this, just like I have no doubt that Iran's TM can be a top-5 national team in the world. It's just that under this regime the best managers like Karbaschi are jailed or exiled while the absolutely most retarded dumbasses like Poop are rewarded.

I also think that after the regime changes the main two political camps will be the current reformists on the conservative side, led by those like Reza Khatami, Mohajerani, Karbaschi, Mousavi, etc.., and the liberals led by those in line with the ideas of Mossadegh, the Foruhars, Bazargan, and Ibrahim Yazdi.

 

[eshghi]

Roozbeh jAn, two things are clear to me. One is the resilience of Iranians, and the other that the people in power in Iran will not go away easily by any means. Unfortunately, the combination of these two makes up for some very difficult times ahead. Some very hard choices will have to be made by both sides, but in the short run, we should expect a lot more bloodshed. Far worse than we have seen so far. The only thing that soothes me are these words of Hafez that have proven true time and time again over the last few centuries. They will prove true again. I don't know when, but I know they will.

رسید مژده که ایام غم نخواهد ماند ... چنان نماند چنین نیز هم نخواهد ماند
من ار چه در نظر یار خاکسار شدم ... رقیب نیز چنین محترم نخواهد ماند
چو پرده دار به شمشیر می زند همه را ... کسی مقیم حریم حرم نخواهد ماند
چه جای شکر و شکایت ز نقش نیک و بد است ... چو بر صحیفه هستی رقم نخواهد ماند
سرود مجلس جمشید گفته اند این بود ... که جام باده بیاور که جم نخواهد ماند
غنیمتی شمر ای شمع وصل پروانه ... که این معامله تا صبحدم نخواهد ماند
توانگرا دل درویش خود به دست آور ... که مخزن زر و گنج درم نخواهد ماند
بدین رواق زبرجد نوشته اند به زر ... که جز نکویی اهل کرم نخواهد ماند
ز مهربانی جانان طمع مبر حافظ ... که نقش جور و نشان ستم نخواهد ماند

​

I am convinced that:

که نقش جور و نشان ستم نخواهد ماند​

 

[lordofmordor]

1. Khamanie is the last velayat faghih.
2. khamanie will give a speech in next 10 days as everyone is waiting to see which road he will take. His options are clear.
2a) he will order crackdowns which will make the situation worst and bring down the regime within months. Or the pasdran will be forced to get rid of mullahs and take power which cannot last too long.
2b) he will order compromise, directly or indirectly, having Majlis dissolve the government, put a temporary government in place that is acceptable to both parties, and call for new elections. But here he has to make compromises by ordering the follow up of the constitution which will call for freedom of press, allowing many liberal candidates to run. Will end the power of khamanie gradually.
3. In january, most likely, there will banned placed upon the IR diplomats, AN, etc.. traveling, which will weaken and destroy the presidency of AN. Khamanie knows this and must make compromise or face serious problem.

It is past the stage to control the people. You cannot govern over such situation.


Either way, IR, is finished unless:
The demonstrations radicalize, giving reasons IR base to solidify around Khamanie which we saw today. This was due to the slogans of death to khamanie, stupid news out of LA tv (ex. khamanie plane is waiting for him at the airport or IR people are running away, etc..), and burning of the police station. Khamanie is now weak so no reason to radicalize his supporters.

 

[sarbaz]

Roozbeh jan
Although the progress of the movment has been remarkable but
It will still take at least another year or so before this regim is gone for good.
You know as well as I do that these mother f**ker akhoonds will not let go so easily.
Az ina Zaloo tar peyda nemisheh

 

[RoozbehAzadi]

Roozbeh jan
Although the progress of the movment has been remarkable but
It will still take at least another year or so before this regim is gone for good.
You know as well as I do that these mother f**ker akhoonds will not let go so easily.
Az ina Zaloo tar peyda nemisheh

Sarbaz-jan, I have a feeling that the demonstrations that started against the (s)election which have now morphed into nation-wide protests and civil disobedience, will eventually become much bigger resistance, including armed resistance.

I know lordofmordor and others say that if the people become violent that the regime would respond ferociously, and let loose on their guns like never before. But I think if that happens, rather than people accepting the terms of the new dictatorship, it would only fuel the flames further. It would cause the Artesh to step into the picture, and many in the Sepah to defect. I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of basijis also left in such a scenario. And they probably wouldn't leave without their weapons. Plus, the people themselves would fight back through nationwide strikes, molotov cocktails, targeting individual sepah and basijis who shoot people, and so on. I doubt in this scenario, if an injured sepahi or basiji is caught, that the people could protect him from being killed by angry masses as they've been protected thus far.

And so I could easily see Burrito ordering the house arrest of all the reform leaders as well as Rafsanjani, and then ordering for the sepah and plainclothes to use guns more directly. But if this happens, the possibilities of peaceful protests fade away as people wouldn't just take it up the ass and allow themselves to just be killed without response. The Artesh, its conscripts, and others in the military wouldn't accept these orders. So I agree that this regime is finished, but I think that the akhounds think that they're going to get away with their coup by not being as "soft" as the Shah, not realizing that by being harder they're only going to get the people to fight back even more, and not just with words anymore. This change looks likely to be much bloodier and more extreme than the one in 1979. It's a sad series of events but the alternative would be to allow Burrito and Poop to continue raping Iran and giggling while they do so.

 

[reza+]

i think people are a little too optimistic here ....

the reality is .... as long as the protests mainly take place within certain (affluent?) areas of Tehran, iri will remain in total control for many years to come ... if this gov (or any other gov) is going to fall by the will of the people, then there'll have to be widespread protests across the country (and more importantly) by all sections of society especially the poor - i have not seen any evidence of that (the poorer areas being actively involved in the protests) in tehran or elsewhere so far

it's become quite obvious to the iri gov/security forces that the main focus of the protesters is to gather in certain areas in big numbers and they do all they can to prevent people from linking up together to make a "huge" difficult-to-control crowd

if the green movement is to succeed by demos/protests/nationwide strike, it will have to stretch the security forces and that means protesting anywhere and everywhere constantly ... but are poorer (or more) people willing to join in this struggle ... go on strike and so on?

 

[RoozbehAzadi]

Less affluent people have already joined the protests in sizable numbers, and they have been nation-wide. That's what separates this from 1999 when it was mostly students. If you look at the updates pages, especially from over the weekend, you'll find quite a number of pics of people who don't look anything close to "northern Tehrani" guys/gals. And there's also lots of updates about how people were protesting and clashes were occurring in Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz(some say 4-5 dead), Qum, Najafabad, and Esfahan among other cities. There were many instances in Tehran where the basij had to run for cover and the police couldn't contain the crowds. The kept protesting despite how 10 of their own got shot. They kept at it while plainclothes were shooting guns directly at them. I think that's a sign that their not willing to give up or stop. This isn't just Tehran, this isn't just the affluent. But it's still not as large as it can get yet. Keep in mind that this all started 6 months ago. It's already beyond what I estimated it could be by now.

 

[shahinc]

This is a long journey. I do not think we will see any real changes within a year or two or even three.

 

[eshghi]

This is a long journey. I do not think we will see any real changes within a year or two or even three.

Ditto! And unfortunately, the only event that might shorten it is if people are killed in very large numbers.