I'm surprised at how the protests and demonstrations became stronger so quickly. I expected the point that was reached at Ashura to happen by perhaps 1 - 2 years from the (s)election. Looking forward to 1 year from the (s)election, or 6 months from now, I'm just wondering what you guys think will happen.
Different possibilities:
1) status quo remains unchanged, people demonstrate, government keeps arresting and killing, and Poop&Burrito stay in power; also, Iran doesn't change in relations with other countries either
2) people keep demonstrating, artesh joins the people, most of sepah joins the people soon afterwards, nuke talks put on hold, more and more people keep coming out, Burrito and Antarishitjob escape to North Korea/Venezuela/Cuba/Zimbabwe, Larijani shaves his beard and pretends he's a tourist
3) crackdown becomes worse, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and eventually Rafsanjani arrested and sentenced to life, thousands of people killed, basij starts firing machine guns into crowds, helicopters start bombing demonstrators, because of state of emergency declared all future (s)elections put on hold, Iran becomes fully sanctioned by the UN, and is starting on a real war path with the US
Personally, I don't think it'll be any of these exactly but they just represent the extremes. My personal estimate:
Demonstrations keep happening at public events, like anniversaries and such. More and more people, including many who voted for Poop or supported him before, feel the system needs to be changed completely. Mousavi and Karroubi are placed under house arrest, Khatami is untouched but his brother is arrested to put pressure on him. The US fails to get Russia and China to vote for sanctions and ends up getting the EU and Japan to fully sanction Iran as well. People become more fearless and keep coming out despite the real threat of death, but protests become more and more violent, with molotov cocktails, perhaps even firearms, being used by youth. The provinces aren't able to be controlled anymore, with Kurdish and Turkic areas revolting a lot more openly, and perhaps with active armed resistance. Rafsanjani is totally quiet but he and most former politicians in Iran know that the IRI's time is up. The regime starts avoiding more pro-government rallies because people have snuck into these posing as pro-regime, much like in Romania, and then overwhelmed the minority actually supporting Poop. Arab countries start uniting against Iran on the Yemen issue much more than before. Obama has decided he might have to order air strikes on Iran's nuke facilities, but hasn't made a final decision on how hard to hit. He also would probably make sure that Iran can't hit back with countermeasures like Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia and China aren't so strong with Iran anymore and UN sanctions are a realistic possibility in the near future. More and more of Artesh and Sepah leave and join the people, taking their weapons with them. Universities are ordered closed for the next year, and there's absolutely no opposition or reformist newspaper. Many bazaaris strike throughout Iran but they don't last long enough yet, and they don't yet have the support of the factory and oil workers to the extent they need. Unemployment in Iran is hovering at 25-30% and inflation has reached 40%. Because of sanctions, the Rial is 15,000 to the Dollar. The brain drain increases dramatically, and European and American universities start seeing more and more applications from young Iranian students.
Basically, at this point, the regime probably has 6 months or at most 1 more year before it completely loses power. I don't see a real leader emerging, but that this is simply a people movement with scattered leaders who symbolize the movement but don't dictate its terms.
Different possibilities:
1) status quo remains unchanged, people demonstrate, government keeps arresting and killing, and Poop&Burrito stay in power; also, Iran doesn't change in relations with other countries either
2) people keep demonstrating, artesh joins the people, most of sepah joins the people soon afterwards, nuke talks put on hold, more and more people keep coming out, Burrito and Antarishitjob escape to North Korea/Venezuela/Cuba/Zimbabwe, Larijani shaves his beard and pretends he's a tourist
3) crackdown becomes worse, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and eventually Rafsanjani arrested and sentenced to life, thousands of people killed, basij starts firing machine guns into crowds, helicopters start bombing demonstrators, because of state of emergency declared all future (s)elections put on hold, Iran becomes fully sanctioned by the UN, and is starting on a real war path with the US
Personally, I don't think it'll be any of these exactly but they just represent the extremes. My personal estimate:
Demonstrations keep happening at public events, like anniversaries and such. More and more people, including many who voted for Poop or supported him before, feel the system needs to be changed completely. Mousavi and Karroubi are placed under house arrest, Khatami is untouched but his brother is arrested to put pressure on him. The US fails to get Russia and China to vote for sanctions and ends up getting the EU and Japan to fully sanction Iran as well. People become more fearless and keep coming out despite the real threat of death, but protests become more and more violent, with molotov cocktails, perhaps even firearms, being used by youth. The provinces aren't able to be controlled anymore, with Kurdish and Turkic areas revolting a lot more openly, and perhaps with active armed resistance. Rafsanjani is totally quiet but he and most former politicians in Iran know that the IRI's time is up. The regime starts avoiding more pro-government rallies because people have snuck into these posing as pro-regime, much like in Romania, and then overwhelmed the minority actually supporting Poop. Arab countries start uniting against Iran on the Yemen issue much more than before. Obama has decided he might have to order air strikes on Iran's nuke facilities, but hasn't made a final decision on how hard to hit. He also would probably make sure that Iran can't hit back with countermeasures like Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia and China aren't so strong with Iran anymore and UN sanctions are a realistic possibility in the near future. More and more of Artesh and Sepah leave and join the people, taking their weapons with them. Universities are ordered closed for the next year, and there's absolutely no opposition or reformist newspaper. Many bazaaris strike throughout Iran but they don't last long enough yet, and they don't yet have the support of the factory and oil workers to the extent they need. Unemployment in Iran is hovering at 25-30% and inflation has reached 40%. Because of sanctions, the Rial is 15,000 to the Dollar. The brain drain increases dramatically, and European and American universities start seeing more and more applications from young Iranian students.
Basically, at this point, the regime probably has 6 months or at most 1 more year before it completely loses power. I don't see a real leader emerging, but that this is simply a people movement with scattered leaders who symbolize the movement but don't dictate its terms.