Reflect your thoughts on 22 Bahman in Iran

Apr 10, 2003
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Zirak jan, I agree with your post. But what is a "Hakha" ??
Vala General needs to explain this one. :) That is the guy few years back said on bla date I will fly to Iran and at the same time regime will fall. It is a long story. Maybe someone can find thread there to show you. :)

He was a charlatan but some people did follow him, including our own General Parsian.
 
Apr 10, 2003
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You see this is the main problem.

Fucking SOB's at LA times. Was it Pro Government demonstrators or fucking Basij, brutal security forces that over shadowed this?

Difference with 1979 is, all the bloody outside media did what ever they can to exaggerate for protests. Now even LA times does not say at least government brought and bought people to overcome. oppositions..

Ah.

[B]Pro-government demonstrators overshadow opposition in Iran


Despite weeks of calls to action, protesters fail to derail a rally marking the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Ahmadinejad gives a defiant keynote speech.
 
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Feb 7, 2004
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I think events of today warrants reevaluation of tactics used by the green so far. And in that regard today’s event might actually be useful lessons in the long run.
Like many others I wasn’t expecting revolution today but wasn’t expecting this either.
You can not announce action plan two months in advance and expect to carry it successfully.
Revolution usually happens when least expected and not by announcing it two months in advance!!
Regime had two months to prepare for it. After all they own the country right now with $ billions in its coffer. And with widespread poverty & economic hardship wasn’t going to be difficult for the regime to assemble/hire half million people in Tehran. They did what they had to do but I can’t say the same about greens.
IMHO

1- movement needs to integrate economic issues with political ones
2- must pay more attention to other cities & towns and not just Tehran
3- get the labor/workers involved because ultimately it may come down to general strike

And few other things that I am not going to mention in order to keep this post short.
By no means this thing is over. Regime might have gotten a breathing space for couple of weeks but based on what I have seen in last few months, people will sustain the pressure and test them in every occasions.
This regime is a moribund entity. Make no mistake about it.
 
Apr 10, 2003
2,705
0
I agree with all your points. They need to do it sooner than later.

I think events of today warrants reevaluation of tactics used by the green so far. And in that regard today’s event might actually be useful lessons in the long run.
Like many others I wasn’t expecting revolution today but wasn’t expecting this either.
You can not announce action plan two months in advance and expect to carry it successfully.
Revolution usually happens when least expected and not by announcing it two months in advance!!
Regime had two months to prepare for it. After all they own the country right now with $ billions in its coffer. And with widespread poverty & economic hardship wasn’t going to be difficult for the regime to assemble/hire half million people in Tehran. They did what they had to do but I can’t say the same about greens.
IMHO

1- movement needs to integrate economic issues with political ones
2- must pay more attention to other cities & towns and not just Tehran
3- get the labor/workers involved because ultimately it may come down to general strike

And few other things that I am not going to mention in order to keep this post short.
By no means this thing is over. Regime might have gotten a breathing space for couple of weeks but based on what I have seen in last few months, people will sustain the pressure and test them in every occasions.
This regime is a moribund entity. Make no mistake about it.
 

Niloufar

Football Legend
Oct 19, 2002
29,626
23
This is like a long football tournament. You're going to win some games, and and lose others. Either way, with still hundreds of moore games to be played, the final outcome is quite undecided. Along the way, you can always change your formation, tactics, players, coaching staff, or the whole team leadership to mend what's broken.

You do need to keep team unity together, however, and never lose sight of the final goal.

Stay rational: getting too emotional will probably hurt more than help. Don't overreact to either intermediate successes or setbacks.

Keep it real: never over-estimate your own strengths or under-estimate your opponents'. If you do, you do so at your own peril.

so doostAn, please, let's not get emotional. If you thought you had won this tournament after 10 games, you misunderstood. There is still along way to go. If you thought you were going to win the next "big game" just because you won the last one decidedly, think again. Neither bask in the glory of short-term successes nor drown yourself in sorrow for failures. This is going to be a long and bumpy road. You need to keep it real and stay focused.
wow..that was the BEST analysis of Green movement strategy Ive ever read..:) you did an incredible job comparing it with football game, ur right it reall is like a football game and there are tons of possibilities of wins/losses in each moment and in each game..

wow..thank you for your great insight AGAIN Amir jan. its so good to have you hear teaching us so many things with your posts..:)
 

ME

National Team Player
Nov 2, 2002
5,548
93
Like it or not, IRI, before anything else is a sophisticated securtiy apparatus. It has been strong enough that survived the toughest internal+external threats in the last 31 years. It was a childish dream to think it was going to go away today. As I said before, the regime has not even used a fraction of its policing capablities to protet itself up to now.

But yet, the biggest news is the crack within the body of this system. If the green movement sustains itself and keeps getting the support of significant political and ideologic figures of the IRI itself, this crack will only become bigger and bigger.

IMO, people acheived the biggest victory today. They didn't fall for the game of IRI to practice violence and therefore give the excuse to the regime to wipe them out. In mid run, people now have a fair chance to win, and in long run thier victory is unevitable. They just need to be persistant.

I take a sustained movement over a supressed one any given day.
 
Jun 6, 2005
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If you guys think the regime is going to be overthrown overnight, think again..

It took two years of protests in the streets to overthrow the Shah, it's a slow process, like a snowball rolling down a hill as it builds momentum it will get bigger and bigger until it runs its course..

It has only been 8 months, it may take a year before you see anything dramatic..
 
Dec 12, 2002
8,517
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usa
masoud jan, damat garm . people in iran and rest of the world have shown a lot of hearts again . in bache ha khoob isp make me proud now. the result was crystal clear ; we humiliated akhounds,khameniee and rest of piece of work..remeber 11 ,12 years when you and i and a few talked about iran' political turmoil usually get a cold shoulder now these people out classed me .
 
Aug 21, 2005
3,362
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next door
i agree with most of the posts, here is my two cents: sure we expected more people today, etc........but you have to realize that IRI has been practicing crowd control, propaganda using her tv and media outlet with millions and millions of dollars for the past 31 years, the green movement is still an infant compare to the regime.........the fact that we are still talking about this 7-8 month after the main event is still a victory in it of itself!!!! we still have many more events coming up and more opportunity. the way i see it is like a card game, over the last 7-8 month the IRI has really shown her true colors and tricks, they have put out all the cards on the table and has gone above and beyond!!! the world really now knows IRI and what they are up to,the crowd control techniques, propaganda etc.... they have lost so much credibility in the world that it will be impossible for them to gain the trust of the world again even if they had any in the first place!!!

IMO not all is lost, IRI economy is not gonna get better in the future,and discontent will continue with this regime, they will be more isolated then before. just like other regimes before, IRI will make more mistakes and miscalculations again in the future as they did with the election, they have a uphill battle in trying to recover from what has been lost over the last 7-8 month with the people and with the international community. bigger and smarter regimes failed, and i do not think this regime is gonna last any longer either!!!

here is what is ahead, in a short month you have norooz, then month or so later you have the famous election day massacre anniversary, then you have 18 tir, then you have ramadan, then qods, then ashura..........

you see now we have events every other month or so, the point is that the time and opportunity is there for the people.
 
Guys, I don't have time to read all the posts on this thread but I was thinking about all this last night as I was watching the news on IRIB and the youtube clips emerging from the protests and something became clear to me.

This was NOT a victory or a defeat for anybody. Those who expected the regime to fall today were wrong in the first place because this was never a likely scenario. I think people like Sazegara who went on about this actually did the movement a great disservice because it now seems like the green movement has been defeated. It's a psychological defeat because of the unrealistic expectation promoted by the likes of Sazegara.

Anyway, the regime didn't win. They lost a lot. No other 22 Bahman march was like yesterday, which was so heavy security. I mean, they claim to be so popular but if that's the case why do they had to call on the help of thousands of anti-riot police and basijis? Why? specially on the one single day that they celebrate their existence? Think about it. This shows they know how unpopular they are and yesterday's show may just weil the cracks a little but it won't cover the problems they have to face.

Finally, there was like 5 days of holiday in Iran so many people decided to leave tehran and go on holiday to shomal, as is customary among tehranis. Also, I get rather angry at people sitting in the west saying they are disappointed at our people for not showing up yesterday while many of them are even afraid to go to Iran for a holiday :(
I am not talking about anyone here but in general.

Chin up.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
39,041
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DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
Guys, I don't have time to read all the posts on this thread but I was thinking about all this last night as I was watching the news on IRIB and the youtube clips emerging from the protests and something became clear to me.

This was NOT a victory or a defeat for anybody. Those who expected the regime to fall today were wrong in the first place because this was never a likely scenario. I think people like Sazegara who went on about this actually did the movement a great disservice because it now seems like the green movement has been defeated. It's a psychological defeat because of the unrealistic expectation promoted by the likes of Sazegara.

Anyway, the regime didn't win. They lost a lot. No other 22 Bahman march was like yesterday, which was so heavy security. I mean, they claim to be so popular but if that's the case why do they had to call on the help of thousands of anti-riot police and basijis? Why? specially on the one single day that they celebrate their existence? Think about it. This shows they know how unpopular they are and yesterday's show may just weil the cracks a little but it won't cover the problems they have to face.

Finally, there was like 5 days of holiday in Iran so many people decided to leave tehran and go on holiday to shomal, as is customary among tehranis. Also, I get rather angry at people sitting in the west saying they are disappointed at our people for not showing up yesterday while many of them are even afraid to go to Iran for a holiday :(
I am not talking about anyone here but in general.

Chin up.
Behroozjan, I know you said you're not talking about anyone here, but I know you're talking about me :)

I'm afraid to go to Iran even for a holiday because knowing myself I would get in a lot of trouble and that would be very irresponsible considering I have a fairly rewarding life here which other people are accustomed to and depend on. I earned everything I have in life and am willing to defend my rights in the country I live in. I don't live in Iran.

Now let's see: If my family and I lived in Iran, do you think it would be a responsible thing to do to leave Tehran and go to Shomal for the sake of "Holidays" when I'm living in a country that is going down the shitter as every minute passes and my neighbors, friends and family might be getting beaten up on the street?

That's exactly what many (I really mean MANY) people did.

Yes, I'm sitting thousands of miles away from Tehran and disappointed. Not because anyone has let ME down. I'm disappointed because I can't do much to help the freaking situation.
 

JazzedUp

Bench Warmer
Dec 1, 2002
1,688
0
42
London
Good point. But Let me take it another step further: It should not be about giving marks at all, or about counting victories versus retreats. In particular when marking is done based on our own personal expectations. In such case after a few bad marks, you will lose heart and will say: "the hell with this people. they don't deserve my support. they are not doing what I think they should do."

And this is not right. A nation makes its history at its own pace. I absolutely agree that there is no reason to praise every single actions of the Green movement or its leaders. We should realise that the green movement, AN, bassijis, monarchists, leftists and others are all playing their roles (positive or negative) in the social development of our nation. Each with their own agenda and goals. But this is just natural. What matters for each of us is that how we can contribute toward the goal that each of us envisions for our nation. Goals that could be different for each Iranian.

For example, If I believe that people should openly revolt against IRI, and if the current events indicate that people are not prepared to do so in face of the widespread and brutal crackdown, then instead of blaming people for not doing what I want, I should find ways to attract more people to this method, advocating it in Iran, inventing creative ways to help those who think like me in this regard etc. If I believe armed struggle is the way to go, then I shoudl be advocating it, helping those who are for it etc. Sitting down and blaming people who may not believe in my method will not advance my cause. The same way that if your party loses election in a democratic country, you don't blame the voters but find ways to reach to them.

So, the challenge for disappointed friends is: If people are not doing what you think they should do, how do you suggest it should be done, and what can be done to advance it and to convince people to follow it. Let's think positive, creative and proactive. and above all, realistic.
Very well said and that's attitude the leaders of this movement need to have as well as the expats.

Anyway, just like many others I was somewhat disappointed with the turn out yesterday. To be honest, it wasn't the people's turn out that disappointed me as much as "the show of force" by the govenment. It just shows what people are up against and this is a very hard battle to win. IR has full control over the wealth and as long as they have that they can put on displays like that. In my opinion, the focus of the green movement needs to change to economy and strikes while at the same time people showing up in the streets. It doesn't have to be huge numbers but they still need to voice their anger and dissatisfaction.

I also believe the reason we saw such huge crowds on Ashura was because of a) Montazeri's death and quite a few people (conservatives but not IR supporters) who otherwise wouldn't take the street they did just to show solidarity with Montazeri

b) Just a few days before it was the student's day and that gave people momentum. I said it in the 22 Bahaman thread as well I do think there was a huge gap between Ashura and 22nd of Bahman.

At the moment, I'm not as negative as some of you guys are because I know this is not the end. Remember 18 Tir? I believe this is a continuation of it and it's getting bigger and bigger. It'll get there but it's the question of when. I do worry as BT pointed out I don't think time is on our side. I mainly worry about Israel and the US attacking Iran over the next few years. If people don't manage to get rid of these morons over the next couple of years Iran is gonna be in big big trouble. The country does't have another 10 years in it to survive this regime.
 
Behroozjan, I know you said you're not talking about anyone here, but I know you're talking about me :)

I'm afraid to go to Iran even for a holiday because knowing myself I would get in a lot of trouble and that would be very irresponsible considering I have a fairly rewarding life here which other people are accustomed to and depend on. I earned everything I have in life and am willing to defend my rights in the country I live in. I don't live in Iran.

Now let's see: If my family and I lived in Iran, do you think it would be a responsible thing to do to leave Tehran and go to Shomal for the sake of "Holidays" when I'm living in a country that is going down the shitter as every minute passes and my neighbors, friends and family might be getting beaten up on the street?

That's exactly what many (I really mean MANY) people did.

Yes, I'm sitting thousands of miles away from Tehran and disappointed. Not because anyone has let ME down. I'm disappointed because I can't do much to help the freaking situation.
BT jan, I assure you I wasn't talking about you and didn't have you or any specific person in mind when I wrote that comment. Like you I have built myself a very good and comfortable life here and I don't allow anyone or anything interfere with it.
At the same time I have never sat and encouraged people in Iran to go fight a regime I hate. I think it should come from within them. They are the ones living daily with that situation and it should be them making all the moves. If for any reason they are not motivated enough then I think that's down to a set of complicated circumstances.

Whether we like it or not or accept it or not, the regime is supported by some people and although the majority hate them, the regime has survived all these years, mainly through creating fear. If enough people decide to do something about it the regime might fold. But until then nothing is likely to happen.
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,346
21
Atlanta
I'm afraid to go to Iran even for a holiday because knowing myself I would get in a lot of trouble and that would be very irresponsible considering I have a fairly rewarding life here which other people are accustomed to and depend on. I earned everything I have in life and am willing to defend my rights in the country I live in. I don't live in Iran.
BT jan,

Your honesty in the above statement is very refreshing. Most of us outside Iran think and act the same way but are not honest or brave enough to admit that.

You are also correct to emphasize that you DON'T live in Iran which makes your calculus of protestation different than those in Iran. The part that my opinion begins to diverge is the calculus of protestation that you project for those inside Iran.

Of course you have every right to be disappointed in anyone. You can be disappointed with Obama, Harper, Madonna, or Liverpool. That is not open to discussion because the matter is by definition entirely subjective. What is open to discussion is whether your expectations and your reading of reasons of the other party is accurate. This brings up what I think is one of the most important problems with out country, that as a nation and a culture we have very poor ability and will to see things from the other side's perspective. It is of course related with the absence of tolerance in our culture.

Yesterday I had a discussion with Nilou in which she was adamant that a prostitute has to be a bad person because she (or he) didn't want to find honest work. We hear from many, that those who go to government demonstrations are mozdoors and worthless. There are obviously some truth to what they say in each case, but that's it: there is only SOME truth to that, not all truth. As a people (not every one of us of course) we can't and don't want to accept that there are often different sides to a story, that any situation would look different in a different light.

Anyway, I mentioned all that to say I really appreciate that you tried to look at the situation from the eyes of those who live INSIDE Iran. That is the right way to think. However, I don't agree with your evaluation that the life you have in Canada is worth avoiding the risks but lives of those in Iran aren't. You can't tell a mother that because your daughter lives under this shi*&^ government it makes more sense for her to put her life on the line than her cousin in Vancouver who has a nice life. It doesn't work that way. People value their lives in the shi&$est of situations. How much they value it is their call, and their call alone.
 

moosh1

Ball Boy
Jan 20, 2004
440
1
چشم اسفنديار جنبش سبز، رضا علامه***زاده


برنامه***ريزی جنبش سبز برای مصاف بيست***ودوم بهمن چه بود؟... اين جنبش بايد برای برون***رفت از درجا زدن، راهی بيانديشد... هيچ عمل جمعی، حتی اگر منظور جمعی چند نفره باشد، بدون داشتن رهبر و برنامه***ريز و هماهنگ***کننده، به سرانجام مطلوب نمی***رسد چه رسد به جنبشی که ميليون***ها نفر در آن سهيم هستند و هزينه***ی اشتباهات و انحرافات در آن به قيمت گزاف جان آدميان، و سرنوشت يک ملت تمام می***شود... در ابهام قراردادن و به***روشنی عنوان***نکردن آرمان اين جنبش، يکی ديگر از دلايل سردرگرمی مردم ايران است بيان عريان واقعيت به همانگونه که رخ داده است هرگز به ضرر هيچ نيروی بالنده***ای تمام نمی***شود. بعکس، آنچه از شتابِ بالندگی آن می***کاهد تلاش برای عرضه مخدوش واقعيت به نيت دفاع از آن است. دستکاری در واقعيت با هر نيت شريفی، کاری ناشريف، و با هر قصد مثبتی، کاری منفی است که در دراز مدت موجب وارد آوردن لطمات جبران ناپذيری به اهداف همان نيرو می***شود. نيروئی که نياز به دستکاری در واقعيت داشته باشد نيروی پسمانده***ای است که بر خلاف حرکت زمان می***گردد و به ناچار برای عقب راندن مرگِ محتومش به مخدوش کردن واقعيت نيازمند است، نه نيروئی که در جهت زمان در جريان است. به باور من، بزرگترين ضربه***ای که دوری از واقعيت به يک نيروی بالنده می***زند به سادگی اين است که آن را از ارزش والای انتقاد پذيری تهی کرده و در نتيجه از شناخت نقاط ضعفش محروم می***کند؛ ضربه***ای که مثل بيماری ايدز سيستم دفاعی انسان را از کار می***اندازد تا در بی***دفاعی مطلق با يک سرماخوردگی از پا درش بياورد.
بيان اين اصل خدشه***ناپذير در آغاز اين مقاله از اين روست که انتظار دارم خواننده بدون عينک خوش يا بدبينی به آنچه در بيست و دوم بهمن امسال در ايران و بويژه در تهران گذشت به قصد درس آموزی از تجربه، آن را بخواند. اول بيائيم به اين پرسش پاسخ دهيم: برنامه ريزی استبداد دينی برای اين مصاف چه بود؟
در يک کلام پاسخ اين پرسش به باور من اين است که همان بود که همه پيش بينی می***کردند، يعنی حضور سنگين نظامی، چه آشکار و چه پنهان، بستن و کنترل راه***های ورود به محل برگزاری مراسم، ضرب و شتم و دستگيری و گاز اشک آور و تير هوائی، و اگر لازم می***آمد دست يازيدن به خون مخالفين. البته همه***ی اين***ها با پيش زمينه دستگيری***های گسترده، حبس***های سنگين و حتی اعدام، و نيز خط و نشان کشيدن و تهديد برای بازگرداندن عنصر ترس به جان کسانی که به نظر می***رسيد ترسشان ديگر ريخته باشد.
حالا از تجربه سی سال استبداد دينی سخن نمی***گويم ولی کدام يک از اين***ها که برشمردم در شش ماه گذشته در انظار جهانيان رخ نداده که تکرارش کسی را غافلگير کند؟
پر کردن ميدان آزادی با آوردن طرفداران حکومت از تهران و شهرستان***ها با اتوبوس به تطميع و تزوير، و پول و غذا دادن به نيازمندان هم تاکتيک نوئی نيست که کسی را غافلگير کرده باشد. نه تنها تجربه***های بسياری در همين دوره سی ساله از اينگونه ترفندها از همين رژيم مقابل چشممان داريم که ده***ها تجربه مشابه در رژيم***های خودکامه، از رژيم شاه خودمان گرفته تا صدام و چائوشسکو در خاطره***ی تاريخی***مان مانده است. بنابراين پرسشی که پاسخش آسان نيست اما تعيين کننده است بايد اين باشد که: برنامه ريزی جنبش سبز برای مصاف بيست و دوم بهمن چه بود؟
اين واقعيتی آشکار است که جنبش سبز جنبشی محروم از رهبريتی منسجم و قابل اتکاء است. اين را به اعتبار همه***ی واقعيت***های موجود و حتی گفتار و عمکرد آقايان موسوی و کروبی که در آغاز اين حرکت در موقعيت رهبری قرار گرفته بودند و با گسترش آن به در حاشيه ماندن اکتفاء کرده***اند می***گويم. لغت رهبری نه تنها به دليل عنوانی که سيدعلی خامنه***ای به خودش بسته است، که نيز به خاطر عملکرد اغلب رهبران جريانات سياسی مختلف در ايران، لغتی ناخوشايند و يادآور خودرائی و تکبر و انحراف و انتقادناپذيری است. از اين روست که گاهی ضعف جنبش سبز به خاطر نداشتن رهبر به نقطه قوت آن تعبير می***شود و اين واقعيت بسيار روشن نديده گرفته می***شود که هيچ عمل جمعی، حتی اگر منظور جمعی چند نفره باشد، بدون داشتن رهبر و برنامه***ريز و هماهنگ کننده، به سرانجام مطلوب نمی***رسد چه رسد به جنبشی که ميليون***ها نفر در آن سهيم هستند و هزينه***ی اشتباهات و انحرافات در آن به قيمت گزاف جان آدميان، و سرنوشت يک ملت تمام می***شود. آنچه نقش رهبر را در ذهن ما ايرانيان امروز بی***اعتبار کرده است درک نادرست ما از محدوده***ی اختيارات و مسئوليت***های يک رهبر است. ما يا کسی را به رهبری نمی***پذيريم يا اگر بپذيريم همه اختيارات را بی***آنکه کمترين مسئولتی از او بطلبيم برای هميشه در اختيارش می***گذاريم. اين کار را به وضوح در مورد روح الله خمينی کرديم و عجيب نيست که قانون اساسی ما تنها قانون اساسی جهان است که عملا و بدون پرده***پوشی رهبری مطلقه و دائم***العمر يک فرد را بر تمامی مردم و نهادهای يک جامعه به شکل قانونی به رسميت می***شناسد؛ چيزی که گرچه سابقا در عمل وجود داشت اما هرگز در قانون اساسی سلطنتی ايران از زمان مظفرالدينشاه بدين سو رسميت نيافته بود.
با اين پسزمينه ذهنی، کمبود رهبری در جنبش سبز را کسی جدی نمی***گيرد. نبود رهبری و برنامه***ريزی واحد برای نيروهای معترض، بيش از همه در بيست و دوم بهمن خود را نشان داد. موسوی و کروبی با اينکه مردم را به اين راهپيمائی دعوت کرده بودند اما به لحاظ محدوديت***های قابل فهم، مثل هميشه از صراحت لهجه در بيان خواست راهپيمايان معترض سر باز زدند و هيچگونه پيشنهادی برای جدا کردن صف معترضين از طرفداران استبداد دينی ارائه ندادند. از اين سردرگم کننده***تر پيشنهاداتی بود که در سايت***های طرفدار جنبش سبز به ويژه سايت جرس طرح شده بود مثل اينکه برای انگشت***نما نشدن «لباس***های محافظه کارانه» بپوشيد که يعنی رعايت همان حجاب اسلامی. اين راهنمای عمل تا آنجا پيش رفت که در ميان شعارهای پيشنهادی***اش نه تنها «الله اکبر» که «آزادی، استقلال، جمهوری اسلامی» را نيز گنجانده بود!
نبود رهبری در جنبش سبز موجب شده است خواست***های اصلی اين حرکت اجتماعی در هاله***ای از کلی***گوئی***ها، ابهام و بازی با لغات پنهان بماند. هنوز پس از صد و اندی سال که از جنبش مردم ايران برای دموکراسی می***گذرد، و چندين حرکت اجتماعی عظيم را در کارنامه***ی خود دارد، بسياری از مدافعان جنبش سبز از داشتن صراحت لهجه در مورد دموکراسی و حقوق بشر به عنوان آرمان اين جنبش طفره می***روند. برخی از فعالان سکولار تبعيدی، که عميقا به اين جنبش باور دارند و با تمام توان برای بارورکردن آن می***کوشند، بی***آنکه مذهبی بوده باشند يا در داخل ايران زندگی کنند و در نتيجه محدوديت***های ايدئولوژيک و جغرافيائی موسوی و کروبی را داشته باشند، به تاسی از آنان از بيان خواست***های برحقشان که چيزی جز استقرار دموکراسی در ايران نيست سر باز می***زنند و به خيال خود برای کمک به همبستگی، نگاه نقاد خود را بر نارسائی***های جنبش می***بندند. تو گوئی در اين زمانه دفاع علنی و آشکار از دموکراسی برای مردم ما زود است و فعالان بايد به شکلی از دموکراسی طلبی مخفی رو بياورند! در حاليکه اگر جنبش سبز در چشم آگاهان جهان حرمتی دارد به خاطر دفاع از دموکراسی و حقوق بشر در مقابل استبداد و نقض اين حقوق در ايران اسلامی است، نه به خاطر شهامت و از خود گذشتگی فعالان جنبش سبز در راه آرمان اوليه انقلاب اسلامی،*** آنطور که گاهی از زبان چهره***های شاخص اين جنبش شنيده می***شود. اگر صِرفِ از خودگذشتگی به خاطر آرمان به خودی خود حرمتی می***داشت حالا بايد بمب***گذاران انتحاری طالبان به خاطر از جان گذشتگی آشکار در راه آرمانشان در قلب آزادگان جهان برای هميشه جا می***گرفتند، نه اينکه به عنوان مشتی تروريست عقب مانده از آن***ها ياد شود. جنبش سبز آنگاه بايد به مدرن و به***روز بودن خود ببالد که آرمانش آشکارا و بی***پرده پوشی استقرار دموکراسی و رعايت حقوق بشر در ايران، يعنی آرمانی مدرن باشد، وگرنه به کارگيری ابزار مدرن و به***روز مثل اينترنت، همانطور که هر روزه شاهديم، از غارنشينان القاعده هم برمی***آيد.
علاوه بر نبود يک رهبر پيشرو و مسئول که منتخب و مورد تائيد اکثريت پويندگان جنبش سبز باشد، همين در ابهام قرار دادن و به روشنی عنوان نکردن آرمان اين جنبش، يکی ديگر از دلائلی سردرگرمی مردم ايران است. وقتی به اهميت اين امر پی می***بريم که بپذيريم تمام شعارها، چه مقطعی چه استراتژيک، قاعدتا بايد از دل همين آرمان ناروشن استخراج شود. از جنبش بی***رهبری که آرمان و خواستش را با لکنت زبان اعلام می***کند انتظاری جز اين نمی***توان داشت که شعارهايش در يک روز معين هم «الله اکبر» باشد که شعار همين امروز حزب الله ايران و لبنان، و شعار حماس در مقابله با حکومت سوکولار فلسطين است، هم «جمهوری ايرانی»، که يعنی جمهوری غيراسلامی و سکولار!
جدا از چهره***های شاخص جنبش سبز بارها از قلم چهره***های شاخص سياسی سکولار تبعيدی نيز نگرانی از تندروی در شعارها که آن را به اصطلاح «ساختارشکن» می***نامند تراوش کرده است ولی هرگز نديده***ام همان***ها از شعارهائی که ساختار جنبش سبز، يعنی اتحاد برای دموکراسی را می***شکنند ابراز نگرانی کرده باشند. دنباله***روی از يک صدا آن هم در يک جنبش فراگير که سرکردگان همان صدا خود به چند صدائی بودن آن اذعان دارند از آن پديده***هائی است که در فرهنگ سياسی کج فهميده شده ما ريشه***ی عميق دارد؛ اگر مثل هم حرف نزنيم در مقابل هم هستيم حتی اگر دست در دست همديگر راهی هدفی مشترک باشيم! و عجيب اينکه اين حرف غلط، نه تنها از دهان کسی که جلوتر ايستاده در می***آيد، که از زبان دنباله***روان او نياز تکرار می***شود.
البته اينان برای توجيه موضعشان دلائل ظاهرا موجهی ارائه می***دهند. شعاری مثل «رفراندوم، اين است شعار مردم» که گوهر آرمانی اين جنبش را در خود دارد، از نظر آن***ها برای سرکوب بهانه به دست رژيم می******دهد. و وقتی می***بينند در يک تظاهرات سکوت هم «ندا»هائی کشته می***شوند متوجه نمی***شوند که در استبداد دينی ايران، صِرفِ مخالفت با خواست رهبر، حتی اگر به صورت انتشار يک مقاله فردی باشد چه رسد به راهپيمائی جمعی، عملی ساختارشکنانه محسوب می***شود. اگر قرار باشد بهانه برای سرکوب به دست رژيم ندهيم تنها راهش بلند کردن همان پرچمی است که ديروز در دست بسياری از هواداران رژيم در ميدان آزادی بود، با اين نوشته که: ما مطيع رهبريم! و اين ذلتی است که هيچ انسان آزاده***ای به آن تن نخواهد داد.
پنهان کردن ضعف***های جنبش سبز، و دستکاری در واقعيت به منظور مخفی کردن آن***ها، نه تنها خدمتی به جنبش نمی***کند که از پويائی آن نيز می***کاهد. اين جنبش بايد برای برونرفت از درجا زدن راهی بيانديشد. تا برآمدن رهبری مسئول و آگاه از درون خود اين جنبش، هماهنگی و برنامه***ريزی برای حرکات بعدی بايد با تشکيل شورائی مورد اعتماد سازمانگری شود. تعيين شعارهائی که نه با يکديگر در تناقض، و نه با گوهر دموکراسی طلبی در تضاد باشند حلقه***ی واصل گروه***های اجتماعی متفاوت به يکديگر است. اين را نيز بايد پذيرفت که تظاهرات خيابانی تنها يکی از اشکال مبارزه مدنی است. حرکت آرام اما مداوم به سوی اعتصابات عمومی بايد در چشم انداز جنبش سبز قرار بگيرد. اين حرکت می***تواند از مدارس و دانشگاه***ها آغاز، و به ادارات دولتی و در نهايت به کارخانه***ها سرايت کند.
راه دراز رسيدن به دموکراسی ميان***بُر ندارد. پيگيری صبورانه، شرط اول برای عبور از فراز و نشيب***های پيش روست.
 
May 12, 2007
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نظر چند تن از خوانندگان در باره تظاهرات دیروز و چهارشنبه سوری
در راهپیمایی دیروز به هرکسی مشکوک می شدند میگرفتند ما چند جوان بودیم که به سمت آزادی در حرکت بودیم که در اریاشهر درگیری روی داد و ما هم از خود دفاع کردیم بعد از این که به سمت آریاشهر آمدیم ناگهان ماموران به سمت ما هجوم اوردند وما را گرفتند بعد دیدیم کسی که با ما در درگیری بود و لباس ساده پوشیده بود جاسوس بود و ما رو لو داده پس ازان تا می توانستند با باتوم وکابل بر سرو بدن ما زدند ویک جوان را به یک پیرمرداحمدی نژادی دادنداو انقدر او را زد که بی حال شد سپس ما رادر کف یک اتوبوس خواباندن از قضا پسر کروبی در همان ماشین بود به محض این که شناختندش همه خبرنگاران وحشیانه از روی بدن ما رد شدند و له می کردند تا مصاحبه کنند بعد از ان ما به بازداشتگاه رفتیم موبایلم را گرفتنددر بازداشتگاه یکی تیر خورده بود سربازان مهربان تر بودند کمک کردند که پانسمان کنند و همه ما را بعد از تعهد و عکس آخر شب آزاد کردند ولی موبایلم را درمیان موبایلها ندیدم و گفتند بسیجی ها موبایلت را دزدیدندو ده نفر را که نارنجک دستی و سنگ داشتند برای محاکمه بردند و همه میگفتند اینها به اتهام محاربه به اعدام محکوم خواهند شد چون اگر بسیجی تجاوز کند بزند بکشد صواب بهشتی برده ولی اگر ما از خود دفاع هم کنیم باید اعدام شویم

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من هم مثل دوستان خودم و مردم خودم دیروز 22 بهمن 88 رفته بودم تا در تظاهرات شرکت کنم و خفقان شدیدی بود 6 نفر راخودم با چشم خودم دیدم که در میدان صادقیه به وضع کاملاً وحشیانه و اسف بار دستگیر کردند .دربین کسانی که به نفع دولت جمع شده بودند دختر خانمی را با مادرش دیدم که بدون هیچ ترسی پارچه سبز در دست داشت با او صحبت کردم دلش خیلی پر بود . اما چند نکته را خدمت دوستان بگویم. رژیم چند تا کار کرده بود که لازمه بهشون توجه کرد .1-به محض احساس خطر بلافاصله شخص مشکوک را با ضرب و شتم و شیطان اکبر گویان و با کتک بوسیله انواع لوازم برقی و غیر برقی دستبند زده و میبردند،دلم خیلی شکست 2 - نیروهای زیادی را با لباس شخصی و صورت تراشیده بین مردم رها کرده بودند تا هر حرکتی را خفه کنند 3 - تعدادی نیرو را با لباس نو رفتگران و با جارو( به همراه دسته جارو)در گوشه هایی نشانده بودند تا به موقع وارد عمل بشوند. اینا هنوز فکر میکنند که زمان پیغمبرشونه و این هم جنگ احده. به راحتی میشه فهمید که این شیطان صفتان چقدر از نیروی مردم واهمه دارند. به امید پیروزی


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من نمیدونم چی بگم ولی ازتون می خوام از مجامع بین المللی بخواهید با حضور نیروهای سازمان ملل اجازه ی یک راهپیمایی رابرای مردم آزاده ی ایران بگیرند مگر می شود مردم را با دست خالی به رویارویی با این جنایتکاران فرستاد دیروز با خانواده در ایران تماس گرفتم گفتند حکومت نظامیه همه جا گاردونیروهای ویژه هستند!صرف اینکه از مردم بخواهنددر راهپیمایی شرکت کنند کاردرست نمیشه باید کسانی رهبری جنبش را بدست بگیرند که تاکتیک شناس باشند واز قبل همه ی تدارکات را برای حفاظت از مردم داشته باشند

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ميدونيد چرا امروز جنبش نتوانست مثل مراسم هاي قبلي موفق باشد دليلش بي خاصيتي رهبران جنبش به ويژه موسوي است موسوي يك فرد بي عرضه هست اگر خوب جنبش رو رهبري ميكرد الان جنبش خيلي جلوتر بود جنبش به يك رهبر واقعي نياز داره امروز مردم سر در گم بودن و پخش شده بودند نمي دونستن چه كار كنند يه كمي هم ترسيده بودند البته جوانان مخصوصا پسرا در اريا شهر عالي بودند . يك بسيجي مزدور از من و خانواده ام عكس گرفت شايد چند روز ديگه عكس ما رو روي گرداب قرار بدهند اما نميترسم ترس برادر مرگه به هر حال كاش زودتر جنبش يك رهبر واقعي پيدا كنه كه مردم بدانند بايد چه كار كنند
كاوه از تهران

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بايد واقع بين باشيم
امروز جنبش سبز پس از هفت ماه برد(23 25 26 27 28 30 خرداد 7 و18تير 8مرداد (چهلم ندا و شهدا) روز قدس 13 آبان 16 آذر وفات منتظري و عاشورا)اولين باختش رو متحمل شد و اين باخت نتيجه بيانيه هفدهم افتضاح آقاي موسوي و مصاحبه نسنجيده آقاي كروبي كه دولت رو پذيرفته بود
مردم ما بسيار باهوشند و هرجا رهبران جنبش لغزشي داشته باشند بلافاصله براي مدت كوتاهي از آنها فاصله ميگيرند
چون محال بود مردميكه عاشورا آنچنان شجاعانه پا به ميدان گذاشت نا اميد شود
از سران جنبش ميخواهيم ازين پس با درايت بيشتري بيانيه صادر يا سخن بگويند
جنبش سبز ازين شكست كوچك درس بزرگي خواهد گرفت و پرقدرت راهش را خواهد پيمود اين از طنين الله اكبري كه هم اكنون محله گيشا رو پر كرده قابل پيشبيني است

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پیروزی یعنی اینکه دهه فجر را برایشان در سراسر جهان به کابوس تبدیل کردیم… …پیروزی آنجاست که شب ۲۲ بهمن تا صبح دم هر تیر چراغ برق و زیر هربلند گو یک بسیجی تا صبح خوابید... پیروزی آنجاست که به کروبی، خاتمی ، زهرا رهنورد حمله ور میشوند و محمد رضا خاتمی و زهرا اشراقی و علی کروبی را دستگیر میکنند و تمام خبرگزاری های جهان آنرا مخابره میکنند … پیروزی آنجاست که صدا و سیما رسوا مجبور میشود روی تصویرهای سبز فیلتر بگذرد و سخنرانی ا.ن (احمدی نژاد) را چند بار قطع کند تا صدای مرگ بر دیکتاتور و دروغگو مردم شنیده نشود … پیروزی آنجاست که ما حضور داریم و آنها از ترس بر خود میلرزند…. ما در این ده روز همه جا حضور داشتیم و آنها ده روز در کابوس و ترس به خود لرزیدند.... از نوفل لوشاتو تا کنسرت های نمایشی در ایتالیا و هلند و بلاخره در میدان آزادی تهران، در بازار تبریز، رو ۳۳ پل اصفهان ، در شیراز… ما پیروزیم چون بیشماریم و بی باک.... اندکی صبر سحر سبز نزدیک است ..

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مردم سبز بسيار هوشمندانه و باخرد در 22 بهمن عمل کردند. مبارزه فقط حمله نيست حيله دشمن را فهميدن و دستش را خواندن هم هست . از شاخ گاو بايد فرار کرد انهم گاوي مثل خامنه اي. هم ميهنان دنيا چشم بما دوخته پيروزي از آن ماست.


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22 بهمن هم تبریک هم تسلیت
بهمن تمام شد هر چند اشتباه داشتیم
چهارشنبه سوری روز ماست.روز متعلق به ملت ایران است!حکومتیان جرات مصادره آن را نخواهند داشت.

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در باره دفن جمهوری اسلامی در پادگان میدان آزادی در 22 بهمن
باید گفت چهارشنبه سوري روز دفن رژيم است فعلا اين مرده در سردخانه منتظر نوبت است
 
Feb 17, 2009
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a collapse of a regime is not a child play

a regime is collapsing when the highest leader is in hiding or dead, in this way the command of chain of the regime will slowly start to cracks and collapse

something is wrong here when a regime can deploy more then 100.000's of security guards to a capital, it shows the regime is very much in power and has the control of all the country, but the situation can change very quickly though

dictatorial regimes are very fascinating,
at Iraq war in 2003, citizens were chanting pro saddam slogans in the middle of Baghdad, this was 1 day before the american troops,tanks rolled into the city !
 
Jun 7, 2004
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My opinion is that first and foremost the movement and all its supporters should not be distressed, disillusioned, loose heart, and most of all start infighting. Do you remember the infighting and disarray that occurred for the regime after the Ahsura events? Are you going to be weaker than them?

In a battle there are ebbs and flows. It is the unchangeable law of God that this earth ultimately belongs to those who steadfastly persevere. So 22 Bahman did not turn into the Ashura victory. Big deal. It is in fact a good thing if the movement has the perseverance.

My most important input same as before is that first and foremost Iranians must gather arms, be willing to kill and get killed. Arms should not be used at a whim but people must prepare in every way for war. Quite unlike what people imagine, the regime supporters including Sepahis are extremely weak; they are cowards. They will drop and run at the first sign of seeing a real fight.

The only reason you see Sepah and their jireh khors acting with swagger is that they know that it is a hugely uneven fight. Hell you see them running even when they are confronted with sufficient number of stones.

There are other inputs too but this has been and is the most important point that I believe in, in this movement.