Donald Rumsfeld's secret memo warned George W. Bush about Iraq
Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush address a press conference in 2002. Source: AP
A SECRET memo from Donald Rumsfeld, written when he was US Defence Secretary, warned of a "parade of horribles" that could happen if the United States invaded Iraq.
Dated October, 2002, five months before the US-led campaign was launched, the memo listed 29 reasons why military confrontation with Saddam Hussein could go badly for America.
It even contemplated the possibility that no weapons of mass destruction would be found.
Mr Rumsfeld sent the memo to President George W. Bush at 7.45am on October 15, 2002. The memo has been declassified and now appears on Mr Rumsfeld's personal website, after the publication last month of his memoirs Known and Unknown.
Rumsfeld was widely regarded as a stalwart supporter of the invasion in March 2003 but the declassified memo provides an insight into his concerns over any failure of the proposed military action.
Titled "Iraq: an illustrative list of potential problems to be considered and addressed" (but described on his website as his "parade of horribles"), the memo was sent to Mr Bush as a "checklist" to make sure they were included in deliberations about Saddam Hussein and Iraq's suspected weapons of mass destruction.
Number 13 on the list reads: "The US could fail to find WMD on the ground in Iraq and be unpersuasive to the world." However, the 15th item appeared to contradict the warning: "There could be higher than expected US and coalition deaths from Iraq's use of weapons of mass destruction against coalition forces in Iraq Kuwait and/or Israel."
Item No 17 is somewhat prescient, given what happened after President Bush's "mission accomplished" speech on May 1, 2003, declaring the combat phase of the war to be over.
"The US could fail to manage post-Saddam Hussein Iraq successfully, with the result that it could fracture into two or three pieces, to the detriment of the Middle East and the benefit of Iran," Mr Rumsfeld wrote.
He also warned: "Rather than having the post-Saddam effort require two to four years, it could take eight to ten years, thereby absorbing US leadership, military and financial resources."
The remaining 50,000 US troops in Iraq are not due to leave until the end of this year, eight years after the invasion.
Afghanistan is not mentioned in the memo, indicating that Mr Rumsfeld considered the action against the Taliban in 2001 to have been conclusive.
However, he acknowledged: "Preoccupation with Iraq for a long period could lead to US inattentiveness and diminished influence in South Asia which could lead to a conflict between nuclear armed states (India and Pakistan)."
- Michael Evans
- From: The Times
- March 04, 2011 9:52AM
Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush address a press conference in 2002. Source: AP
A SECRET memo from Donald Rumsfeld, written when he was US Defence Secretary, warned of a "parade of horribles" that could happen if the United States invaded Iraq.
Dated October, 2002, five months before the US-led campaign was launched, the memo listed 29 reasons why military confrontation with Saddam Hussein could go badly for America.
It even contemplated the possibility that no weapons of mass destruction would be found.
Mr Rumsfeld sent the memo to President George W. Bush at 7.45am on October 15, 2002. The memo has been declassified and now appears on Mr Rumsfeld's personal website, after the publication last month of his memoirs Known and Unknown.
Rumsfeld was widely regarded as a stalwart supporter of the invasion in March 2003 but the declassified memo provides an insight into his concerns over any failure of the proposed military action.
Titled "Iraq: an illustrative list of potential problems to be considered and addressed" (but described on his website as his "parade of horribles"), the memo was sent to Mr Bush as a "checklist" to make sure they were included in deliberations about Saddam Hussein and Iraq's suspected weapons of mass destruction.
Number 13 on the list reads: "The US could fail to find WMD on the ground in Iraq and be unpersuasive to the world." However, the 15th item appeared to contradict the warning: "There could be higher than expected US and coalition deaths from Iraq's use of weapons of mass destruction against coalition forces in Iraq Kuwait and/or Israel."
Item No 17 is somewhat prescient, given what happened after President Bush's "mission accomplished" speech on May 1, 2003, declaring the combat phase of the war to be over.
"The US could fail to manage post-Saddam Hussein Iraq successfully, with the result that it could fracture into two or three pieces, to the detriment of the Middle East and the benefit of Iran," Mr Rumsfeld wrote.
He also warned: "Rather than having the post-Saddam effort require two to four years, it could take eight to ten years, thereby absorbing US leadership, military and financial resources."
The remaining 50,000 US troops in Iraq are not due to leave until the end of this year, eight years after the invasion.
Afghanistan is not mentioned in the memo, indicating that Mr Rumsfeld considered the action against the Taliban in 2001 to have been conclusive.
However, he acknowledged: "Preoccupation with Iraq for a long period could lead to US inattentiveness and diminished influence in South Asia which could lead to a conflict between nuclear armed states (India and Pakistan)."