Stock/commodities Discussion

Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
I have been wrong about the market for 5 years. (saying there is no room to go up)

The fed will probably rescue the markets by starting to buy equities.

which is is quite insane considering the fact that this policy only benefits only small subset of population.

and the fact that equity market based on no fundamentals went up by 60% in 3.5 years.


I know this market is weird when i look at Microsoft MSFT.
back in 2014 Microsoft was at $30 per share.

since then 2 things have happened. new CEO, Bill gates stop selling shares.

no products to speak of that justify the company's trading up 5x was it was then.

the only conclusion i can reach (with no finance education), the fed has left the investors no choice.
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 4, 2005
16,592
1,173
I have been wrong about the market for 5 years. (saying there is no room to go up)

The fed will probably rescue the markets by starting to buy equities.

which is is quite insane considering the fact that this policy only benefits only small subset of population.

and the fact that equity market based on no fundamentals went up by 60% in 3.5 years.


I know this market is weird when i look at Microsoft MSFT.
back in 2014 Microsoft was at $30 per share.

since then 2 things have happened. new CEO, Bill gates stop selling shares.

no products to speak of that justify the company's trading up 5x was it was then.

the only conclusion i can reach (with no finance education), the fed has left the investors no choice.
As far as Microsoft goes most of their growth is in the cloud business. Also they have a steady stream of income from software subscriptions. If anything IMHO msft is probably one of the cheapest stocks compared to the other tech companies.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
As far as Microsoft goes most of their growth is in the cloud business. Also they have a steady stream of income from software subscriptions. If anything IMHO msft is probably one of the cheapest stocks compared to the other tech companies.
I don't claim to be a market expert. but MSFT i know in and out.
I use their cloud shit. yes they are the number 2 player.

but go look at their revenue. it has gone up by 50% in the last 6 years. yes recurring revenue is valued a bit more.

but as of a week a go MSFT Was 180. that is 6X in 6 years.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
39,047
1,227
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
It wasn't just stocks. The asset bubble was (and still is) an "everything bubble". Think of it as crazy inflation hidden inside assets rather than consumer products. Low interest rates have made both sides of the equation - savers and debtors - extremely lazy. Savers were left with nothing but riskier assets, opting to reduce their cash/bond positions in favor of stocks while debtors saw absolutely no incentive in reducing their debt. This is true from small retail investors all the way to very large firms with massive balance-sheets.

There's also the robo-trade aspect of the market which is absolutely ridiculous. There are billions of automatic trades being made everyday solely based on triggers that are based on other triggers that are based on yet other triggers (domino effect). The fact that Warren Buffet's personal decision to sell a stock acts as a trigger for millions of robo-trades to do the same immediately is both fascinating and also concerning.

What you've seen in the past 2 weeks is a direct result of trigger-based automatic trading transpiring in a massive show of dominos.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
Look at the S&P stats.
October 2017:1550
March 2013:1550
November 2016:2100
Feb 2020: 3200.

aside from maybe 6 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Netflix, Google, Apple.
nobody has really done a fantastic job. the market has been mostly driven up by Fed policy
and TINA (there is no alternative).
I will buy the market again if S&P gets back to 2100. even then i thought were a bit high.


1584402502359.png
 

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
4,145
406
and if it breaks 1550 then buy a large
life insurance policy in the name of the
one you love the most and book a ticket
on a flight with a 737-max jet.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
so current rumor is republicans are rallying behind Andrew Yang's $1000 idea for each adult.
well at least temporarily.

50 billion bail out for airlines seems a sure thing.

hotel bail outs seems like a sure thing.

so far i can see at least $400 billion package coming up during this week.
 

Playboy

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2010
4,145
406
boeing has crashed!

they are looking for the black box in washington dc.

trump will blackmail them before he gives them the black box


52 Week Range 98.00 - 398.66

Boeing Craters Again on Investors’ Alarm Over U.S. Bailout Quest


(Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.’s rout deepened as investors reacted with alarm to news that the planemaker is seeking at least $60 billion in U.S. government aid for itself and suppliers in a race to shore up cash to weather the coronavirus pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-bailout-plea-rattles-investors-182244592.html
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
boeing has crashed!

they are looking for the black box in washington dc.

trump will blackmail them before he gives them the black box


52 Week Range 98.00 - 398.66

Boeing Craters Again on Investors’ Alarm Over U.S. Bailout Quest


(Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.’s rout deepened as investors reacted with alarm to news that the planemaker is seeking at least $60 billion in U.S. government aid for itself and suppliers in a race to shore up cash to weather the coronavirus pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-bailout-plea-rattles-investors-182244592.html
all the fuss about nothing. it is the second most importance defense contractor.

It will get bailed out. there is no doubt about it.
 

TeamMeli

Legionnaire
Feb 5, 2014
7,595
97
Las Vegas, NV
@ChaharMahal
If you have a loan on your home, now might be the time to refinance. You can find good in any situation, this is for Americans.
The Federal Reserves lowered interst rate to 0 to near zero 0.25% so time to readjust that 30 year or 15 yea amortized loan.
Not only that, all the projections I am reading are forecasting DOW can drop to below 15,000 because of all of the panic selling.
What a time to invest in some S&P 500 stocks-look into these are the seven that rose during this period

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/rea...-be-chance-to-refinance-your-home/ar-BB10SdRd

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...that-rose-while-the-market-plunged-2020-02-28
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,306
181
If you have a loan on your home, now might be the time to refinance. You can find good in any situation, this is for Americans.
The Federal Reserves lowered interst rate to 0 to near zero 0.25% so time to readjust that 30 year or 15 yea amortized loan.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/rea...-be-chance-to-refinance-your-home/ar-BB10SdRd
they lowered short term rates.

long terms rates sometimes follow short term rates.

but mostly follow treasury long term rates. FEd announced a QE program.
that should lower rates on mortgages in a few months.
 
Likes: TeamMeli

TeamMeli

Legionnaire
Feb 5, 2014
7,595
97
Las Vegas, NV
they lowered short term rates.

long terms rates sometimes follow short term rates.

but mostly follow treasury long term rates. FEd announced a QE program.
that should lower rates on mortgages in a few months.
That is what I am projecting as well, I understand this is SHORT TERM loans I should have prefaced that in the article, I apologize for that.
However, one can make projections, they are talking about sending Americans checks starting April 6 and in May.
One can project that federal reserves will lower interest rates to historic lows, to encourage the people to buy.
They want to save the housing market and pretty soon it will be during peak season. People usually buy in sell end of school May through
Sept beginning of school.