The next big demo

[JazzedUp]

Well since Ashura Iran has been fairly quiet ( apart from Mousavi's message) nothing major has occured. I have no doubt the protests will not stop. Just wondering when do you guys think (or know) will happen?

My own gut feeling is that it will be 22nd of Bahman following trend that has been set so far. I haven't been following the news closely over the past week so maybe there is something happening prior do that.

Do share yout thoughts or if you have more information about the next big event.

 

[Bi-honar]

Although 22nd of Bahman is a long way from now (taking into consideration what has been happening), it will most likely be the next BIG event. Having said that and at the rate things are going, I have a hard time believing that nothing will happen until then. There may be some minor flare up's outside universities, the student protests are still ongoing and the situation is extremely volatile. Bushehr's Kalantari was apparently attacked (as per the News/Discussions forum) and with the rumours of people buying pistols on the streets, I think the focus will be as much on these relatively minor (yet significant) events as it will be on the 22nd of Bahman.

 

[deerouz]

The police has warned that this time they will deal with protesters as "rebels against the government", which carries the death penalty. So before another event, we may see a different form of protest: unrest in universities, and strikes. Business and Industry strikes and potests can be wrapped in non-political (wage, working conditions etc) demands as the economy worsens, so that it cannot be immediately labeled a anti-government and crushed. Ahmadinejad's rival factions in majlis may also be more willing to voice support for such protests.

The key point is to weaken the government further and further, and sometimes a temporary change of strategy would be very effective.

 

[JazzedUp]

Although 22nd of Bahman is a long way from now (taking into consideration what has been happening), it will most likely be the next BIG event. Having said that and at the rate things are going, I have a hard time believing that nothing will happen until then. There may be some minor flare up's outside universities, the student protests are still ongoing and the situation is extremely volatile. Bushehr's Kalantari was apparently attacked (as per the News/Discussions forum) and with the rumours of people buying pistols on the streets, I think the focus will be as much on these relatively minor (yet significant) events as it will be on the 22nd of Bahman.

My thoughts exaclty. The situation is of course very tense but I do have a feeling the next major event will be 22nd of Bahman. It might seem a bit too far away but in the bigger scheme of things it's not really that far away.

I also think IR will fully ban any demos on that day which I think be quite funny since for them it's the most important day in history.

 

[JazzedUp]

The police has warned that this time they will deal with protesters as "rebels against the government", which carries the death penalty. So before another event, we may see a different form of protest: unrest in universities, and strikes. Business and Industry strikes and potests can be wrapped in non-political (wage, working conditions etc) demands as the economy worsens, so that it cannot be immediately labeled a anti-government and crushed. Ahmadinejad's rival factions in majlis may also be more willing to voice support for such protests.

The key point is to weaken the government further and further, and sometimes a temporary change of strategy would be very effective.

True a lot could happen between now and 22nd Bahman. I believe we'll see major devepment happening however the way it's gone so far people have used every major government sponsored event in their advatange and I think 22nd Bahman will be no exception. We shall wait and see maybe ( I would doubt it though) IR won't last till then.