Party is over. Time for Iranians to really decide "where" they want to live. It doesn't matter if they're pro I.R or religious or anti regime or whatever. They need to decide whether they want to be poor or not. Iran is going to be a poor nation very soon. Civil unrest and war are inevitable at this point. Civil unrest is already there, but war will come when the militaristic regime becomes economically insolvent (it's close).
in the short to medium turn iran is going to suffer. (
but the suffering should not be exaggerated, because iran never enjoyed the full or even half ass benefits of this deal).
however given a windows of ten years and longer it is really hard to say.
what I think will happen is that iran will stay in the deal for another year. and then will realize even the minimal benefits are gone and they will pull out.
but that is a tactical mistake. if they are going to pull out it is better for them to pull within this month.
The closer we get to 2020 election season it is more likely that trump will try to pull an October surprise.
Assuming khameni stays alive, trump does not get impeached by possible democratic takeover in house and senate.
I think Iran will try to stick in the deal for 2 more years-ish and perhaps resume full enrichment after what hey have seen what north korea possibly got.
what is iran's hand in yemen and what is iran's hand in syria. and what is the state of the global economy then.
basically the game iran is trying to play is strategic patience until 2030 when China's economy is predicated to become larger than U.S economy by nominal or PPP. Iran would be betting that over time it's ability to trade in other international currencies might become better and hence not be so reliant on the so called u-turn on u.s federal reserve up in new york.
the major disrupter even all else being equal is the eventual changing of the guard in iran
I have been living in US for around 20 years now, but I still care about iran and want Iranians to get rid of this regime, at least in this life. I want them to be happy and proud of their country again. I loved Obama for his social ideology and i hate Trump because he is not human. You can see how torn I am. I think dealing with IR and giving them incentives is wrong. I hope they disappear with the help of people not another war. I'm prety sure the next regime in Iran will be leaning toward west and the raping of our country will continue, but I don't care anymore. I think people don't care as well.They just want to live a simple, happy life.
Israel seem to be destroying a lot of advances/set up IR made in Syria. You don't see russian forces get bombed (with few exceptions over past few years) and killed in Syria. they are using Iranians at the moment.
. Iranians to make their own decision is just a myth dude. never happens , never ever . if they end up eating each-other's flesh and bones they wont do shit , mark my word. We are dead just fucking dead