U.S. midterm election

A8K

Ball Boy
Oct 22, 2016
1,928
326
#1

from last year but displays what has been going on, imo.

also this next one, off-topic but is educational.

 
Last edited:
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#4
Not really.

Mid-terms are historically a shit-show for the in-power party. Typically the president's party loses seats and regains them when the opposite party takes over presidency. Despite this, most presidents are able to win a 2nd term.
It is acutally not that common. in 94 republican won. but in 98 off year election democrats gained seats (people's backlash against clinton impeachment)

in 2002 bush and company gained seats as they politicized the iraq war. in 2006 democrats won big iraq was going really bad.

2010, 2014 republicans did well.

in 2018 i suspect republican well gain 2 senate seats.

democrats will gain 20-25 congress seats.



That conventional wisdom of party out of power wins was for when Democrats and republican had roughly equal number of white people voting for them and democrats had a ton of old people voting for them.

but that is not longer the case. white folks are more likely to vote. religious people are more likely to vote. and old people are more likely to vote.
if you look at the Venn diagram Republican dominate those three categories.

in presidential year elections democrats are structurally more likely to win the populate vote. but still loose the congress and certainly lose the a ton of state legislatures.

in the coming years America's political system will continue to its dysfunctional. hopefully populations moving around the country will balance out the states a bit more. living in the south it is just weird.

you drive 30 minutes out of big cities and people are living in a compltely different lifestyle. the social divide in this country is ripping it apart.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#7
This election is causing another shallow realignment.

The Redneck class of conservatives like Rick perry, Marsha Blackburns .. have embraced Trump and they love him.

the 100% bought and paid for politicians like Ted Cruz and Rubio hate Trump because they Feel like his seat belongs to him. but they are owned by their donors so they are going along with Trump (did somebody mention taxcuts).

but the so called intellectual class repblucians like Steve Schmit , David Frum (Bush speech writer that coined axis of evil), George Will have jumped in Bed with democrats.

There are some real progressive running in Democratic party and lite Republicans like claire mccaskill in Missouri are gone lose.

The main social in America was won by the left. (gay marriage)

but from now the right is hitting back and winning social wars (black lives matter)

the left has been in retreat for 50 years in America. it seems like Democrats are eventually going to realize the only way for them to appeal to poor white people will be to once again talk about pocket issues.

not gay marriage and transgender and x,y, z rights. because frankly those wars have been won by the left.

Republcian appears to only be eager to turn over the demographic change in America and Abortion issue.

They are basically content with gay marriage. (nobody could have beleived this 15 years ago)
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#8
For those of you who can't understand why people would vote for Trump

In West Virginia they voted for him because he promised to bring back coal jobs.
and you know what many of those people probably believed he is lying. but still better than an elite evil person like Hillary that said oh we need to kill coal jobs. no empathy for these folks.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
38,036
558
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#9
In West Virginia they voted for him because he promised to bring back coal jobs.
It's not just because he promised to bring back jobs. That's a simplistic way of looking at it (we have CNN and MSNBC for that)

Many Trump voters were Obama voters. They voted for Trump because Obama made Amercia an apologetic 'beta' country in their eyes. Trump won the election mostly by ridiculing that aspect alone. Trump knows his people. He tapped into a vast reserve of American anger. He'll do it again and again as long as democrats and the media keep their heads in the sand.

Coal jobs? yeah, bring those back too!
 

A8K

Ball Boy
Oct 22, 2016
1,928
326
#10
It's not just because he promised to bring back jobs. That's a simplistic way of looking at it (we have CNN and MSNBC for that)

Many Trump voters were Obama voters. They voted for Trump because Obama made Amercia an apologetic 'beta' country in their eyes. Trump won the election mostly by ridiculing that aspect alone. Trump knows his people. He tapped into a vast reserve of American anger. He'll do it again and again as long as democrats and the media keep their heads in the sand.

Coal jobs? yeah, bring those back too!
Nope Trump won by hyperfocusing on many especially three smaller states and from memory the coal/blue collar jobs were in those states; those guys don't really care about US being apologetic so much , they need to put bread on the table.

Trump also won three "blue wall" stronghold states that had not gone Republican since the 1980s:Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also won Maine's 2nd congressional district, which had also not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#11
a few points; some that A8K touched on.

Trump did not even come close to winning the majority vote. In fact he got 1% less vote than Mitt Romney did.

This particular election was not so much to do with strengths of Trump but rather deep flawed character that Hillary had.

I have been an avid talk radio listener for a quite a while. Trump was toying with the idea of running for president back in 2011. but he correctly concluded that he cannot beat Obama.

In Obama Democrats had a guy who had Charisma, did not have personal Corruption issues (so many politicians in the U.S do), turned out black vote (1% higher than before). Even Turned out Hispanic vote.

The issues were not around the country's foreign policy. the republican tried all the stuff before with Obama in 2011 and 2008. He bowed before Saudi King thing.
He is gone have flexibility with Russia.

the fact of the matter is people saw Obama and a lot of people just liked him.

People looked at Hillary and they just did not like her (even back in 1993). even a great majority that voted for her did not like her.

Add to that all $hit related to slow recovery that took 8 years.
Obama and other democrats adding Goldman Sachs/ Federal Reserve guys to his cabinet (just like bush had). Democrats abandoned the working class; started cozying up with tech and financial sector billionaires.

What Trump did was to tap into vulnerabilities that Americans had and promised that he would fix it all.

But all politicians do that. except that trump has not problem just lying his teeth to a new level.

Trump just invented a new paradigm in American politics. It is ok to lie at 100% level.

He promsie to clean out the swamp and get rid of elite bankers. he truns around appoints a bunch Goldman execs and Sec Treasury and Economic Advisor. and he is not even a bit ashamed making corruption worse than it was before.

It has to be said that Trump also had the right timing. He started using the anti foreigner (Brown) language when Americans had seen heads chopped for 2 straight years on TV by Isis.

Like everything else sometimes you need to just be lucky a bit have the right message for the right time.


--side-note

if we put aside how the economy is doing in each election cycle.

Democrats are better positioned to win presidential elections, mayoral elections; republican are better positioned to win the senate, governorships, state legislateures and the house. there are just too many structural things at play. unless you have transformation guys like Obama or Regan on top of the ticket.
 
Jul 5, 2009
2,468
141
South Dakota
#12
For those of you who can't understand why people would vote for Trump
They're simply TOOLS.
That'int no what these uninformed cherokees believed would go when it all started.
They're all losers, reminds me of poor eYranian-hAjis in mosques on the far side of the worst rural areas you could ever imagine.

You know what, I will and I am going to VOTE for Trump yet again to see him four more years in power, we all in this realm need a good homework, same way eYranian went wild for that fucking revolution back 40 years ago, "free this, free that...free everything, we'll have everything for free, big hAji promised it to us" they said. Sure my fat hairy ass!

We all will regret it too, nevertheless the experience with Trump's epoch should now be put to good use in the interests of the people of USA years to come.
 

tajrish

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2002
2,915
48
52
San Diego, California
#14
All these economic and job issues are nothing but excuses. This was a white backlash after an Obama presidency. The economy was good, the unemployment rates were at 5% with no increased taxes and Obamacare was finally gaining popularity. It was the last gasp effort of the white middle and upperclass in America to maintain their historical privileges, as advertised by Trump. The rest is BS.
 

Bache Tehroon

Moderator
Staff member
Oct 16, 2002
38,036
558
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#16
For all the hatred and media crying democrats invested in since Trump's presidency, it's funny they barely managed to get a slight majority in US house and lost even more seats in the Senate.

Now they want to initiate a request that is the most important issue in the world: Trump's personal tax records!

It's the issue keeping every American sleepless at night!
 
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#17
Another myth!
The media has always been pro right in this country. turn on the radio on your car all you hear is Michael Savage, Rush, Hannity, ...
for every so called "Liberal paper" there is so called conservative one.
80% of the local media markets are owned by conservatives.
the highest rated TV channel on Cable.

tune into sunday tv shows, it learns conservative (especially economics)
 
Likes: Fatso
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#19
Hey if you stick with Canadian politics! I won't call you out once (because i don't have any knowledge). but if you recite talking points you are gone get called out.

Speaking of narrow sight.
you have done nothing but non-stop praise anybody who appeared to have inclining of right wing politics.

I on the other hand was against Hillary 10 years ago. was pro Ron Paul. and by the way support some Trump's policies (not that this heart is in the right place).

you have come a long way from that kid who took the time to write a letter to the ignorant editor of Jahane Football to educate him about his casual use of racial epitaphs.
 
Likes: A8K
Oct 18, 2002
16,055
106
#20
disappointing to see Trump and congratulate this old tiered bought and paid for politician Pelosi.

if the democrats new blood had any balls their first order of business should be to kick her out of leadership. 16 is enough.