What are your predictions on the upcoming elections in Iran?

Jun 18, 2005
10,888
0
#1
I know there is a thread on election news but I wanted to gague everyone's take on the coming election/selection in Iran?

Who do you guys think will be the finalist and which assclown will end up being the president?

So far and looking at the list of those who said they are running, I dont find anybody noteworthy. While pretty much every rightist who has once in their life had a post in this freaking regime has announced that they will run, its pretty laughable to assume they will be competing against each other. I mean the Mullahs are not too stupid to believe people will come out for Rezaei vs Hadade Adel or the dark horse Ba Honar? (Not to be confused with ISP's game reporter and seismologist)

Also to consider is the fact that Velayati, Rezaei, and Rafsanjani are all on Interpol's list for the bombing in Germany so the likelihood of either of them being elected is close to none IMO. So there has to be someone who will jump in the race soon or this election will be a snooze fest. Unless the regime is thinking boring is good. So here is my prediction:

Btw Velayati, Hadad, and Ghalibaf..it will be Ghalibaf who will register and run. (Hadad is a close second)
Rezaei will be a finalist obviously and maybe he can barely beat his 500k total from last time
Rohani and Aref, they sorta remind you of Karroubi and Mousavi?
So far pretty boring? Well thats how its going to be.
The heck with it I will throw in Ba Honar and Abu Torabi in there too.

Who will win? Someone like Ghalibaf. Hadad is a close second. Do notice how Ghalibaf has been laying low letting Velayati and Hadad do the talking.
 
Feb 22, 2005
6,880
9
#2
The supreme leader has always chosen the winner of the election except perhaps the Khatami one. Only he knows who the winner will be.
 

feyenoord

Bench Warmer
Aug 23, 2005
1,706
0
#3
In case, nothing special happens, it will probably be Ghalibaf. If Rafsanjani comes in the race, then he will be the winner. If Khatami comes in, he has a huge chance as well (but both probably wont) Shoraye Negahban will not pass Khatami.

If Mashayee comes in and manages to pass through Shoraye negahban, he could be the biggest threat for the regime. I do no think they will allow him run. So, they are paving the path for Khamenei's next puppet. They really need this, because Khameinie has lost legitimacy and he has proven not to have "basirat". They want someone in place who will be puppet and who will indicate the whole time that his policies are Rahbar's policies. They will change their path to moderation and will attribute every bad thing to AN.

This way Khamenei comes out as the winner. Next, they will get rid of the presidency. They will argue that presidency has brought all these issues to their nezam since the presidents have not been in line with rahbar.
 
Jun 18, 2005
10,888
0
#4
Well Rafsanjani is almost 80 years old. Older than Khamenei even. He pretty much is not going to join in. What he will do is supporting someone else to run in his place. Frankly he has no pull or critical influence anymore. The ship has sailed past him.

Khatami, i just dont see it happening. Would be unprecedented for someone to win back the election again after serving max terms. He will amass more power and influence. Something that nobody in the top circles want to see or would allow to happen.

My assumptions are based on little interruption from Ahmadi Nejad. I just dont see Mashaei being allowed anywhere near ballot. They will release Mousavi and let him run before giving Mashaei a chance.

Ghalibaf can get some votes and looks decent enough plus he is close to Khamenei. If his favorability goes up too much they will look for another name. Perhaps thats why he is keeping a low profile.
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Feb 4, 2005
16,637
1,252
#5
Tough to predict. The only osoolgara that can pull some votes is Ghalibaf. I don't think Kh trusts him though. If Raf runs and gets pass the filter everything changes. Khatami has already stated he isn't coming and Mashai won't pass the filter. For KH a perfect runoff will be Haddad or Velayati vs Nikzad or any other AN's plan B candidate and Raf not running & pulling Haddad out of the box with 64% of the vote. The funny thing is the voting is in a month and a half and no one knows wtf is running.
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
2
#6
So you guys think Khamenei's personal favourite - Lankarani or Jalili - stands no chance?

I don't think any of those on your list - Hashemi, Ghalibaf, Haddad or Khatami - will stand for election. I am going to bet that unless a major event happens between now and next month, the election will be decided between Rezaei, Lankarani or Jalili, and a couple of pir-o-patals like Velayati, Poormohammadi and such. One loyal reformist candidate (most likely Jahangiri) will also be allowed to run and may end up 2nd or third. Khamenei's candidate (Lankarani orJalili) will win it.
 
Jun 18, 2005
10,888
0
#7
Kamran Lankarani has held more academic than executive roles. Its hard to assume him in a presidential role.

Jalili has more credentials and can possibly win a selection but not an election battle. Hardly anybody knows about him and we are 5 or 6 weeks from voting. Many of the candidates are already traveling and doing some form of campaigning.

I admit this feels like watching a fake wrestling show between low key players while waiting for a game changing event. The game changer has not materialized yet.
 

Zob Ahan

Moderator
Feb 4, 2005
16,637
1,252
#8
So you guys think Khamenei's personal favourite - Lankarani or Jalili - stands no chance?

I don't think any of those on your list - Hashemi, Ghalibaf, Haddad or Khatami - will stand for election. I am going to bet that unless a major event happens between now and next month, the election will be decided between Rezaei, Lankarani or Jalili, and a couple of pir-o-patals like Velayati, Poormohammadi and such. One loyal reformist candidate (most likely Jahangiri) will also be allowed to run and may end up 2nd or third. Khamenei's candidate (Lankarani orJalili) will win it.
Deerouz jan why do you think Ghlibaf won't run? He is hungry for the position since 2005. Do you think KH won't let him run?
Also Rezaie has been running every time and never musters more than 500000 votes. His campaign slogan is "sang moft gonjeeshk moft".
 

mashdi

Football Legend
Sep 29, 2005
39,274
1
#12
Who do you guys think will be the finalist and which assclown will end up being the president?
Sina.here are some pictures from the region that the next so called president is from.

And name the very special fruit (first picture) that is grown there.surely you have had that yummy fruit in your early youth.





...


..
..
..
..


..
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
2
#14
Kamran Lankarani has held more academic than executive roles. Its hard to assume him in a presidential role.

Jalili has more credentials and can possibly win a selection but not an election battle. Hardly anybody knows about him and we are 5 or 6 weeks from voting. Many of the candidates are already traveling and doing some form of campaigning.
More so than Ahmadinejad in 2005???
You seem to be thinking that the elections in Iran has something to do with background, popularity, campaign etc. It does not. Iranian presidential elections are decided by the backroom fighting between power players. In this particular case, discounting Khamenei/Jebheh Paydari would be a gross miscalculation.
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,162
11
#16
I am surprised there are still educated Iranians who call the IR sham as an election. What election? I don't think there ever was a so called election under IR in which the votes were even counted.
Having said that.....I must give credit to the akhoond handlers in London - they have devised a perfect position within the government. The role of the so called Democraticaly Elected President is nothing but a scapegoat - someone who can be blamed for all shortcomings......a role even a monkey can play......well proven by AN!!
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
2
#17
Deerouz jan why do you think Ghlibaf won't run? He is hungry for the position since 2005. Do you think KH won't let him run?
Also Rezaie has been running every time and never musters more than 500000 votes. His campaign slogan is "sang moft gonjeeshk moft".
Zob jan, obviously it is hard to predict what is happening behind the scene. But the fact is that in Iran you need a power center behind you in order to get any high position. I don't see much support for Ghalibaf among the main power brokers in Iran, and the regime is not in a position to gamble in the first election after 1388. I think this one would be a tightly controlled show. Ghalibaf also knows that without 100% support from all power centers, taking over a country under sanctions and in direct confrontation with the west would be suicidal. I think he will aim for a VP position instead.

Even if the regime is ready to compromise with the west, they do not want to make it look like a position of weakness inside. So my guess is that a hardliner like Jalili/Lankarani would win and try to negotiate a settlement with the west behind the scene. In order to pretend to the populace that the drinking of cup of poison was a victory, they will need a hardliner in charge.
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
2
#18
I am surprised there are still educated Iranians who call the IR sham as an election. What election? I don't think there ever was a so called election under IR in which the votes were even counted.
Having said that.....I must give credit to the akhoond handlers in London - they have devised a perfect position within the government. The role of the so called Democraticaly Elected President is nothing but a scapegoat - someone who can be blamed for all shortcomings......a role even a monkey can play......well proven by AN!!
Masoud jan , it is an election, albeit not by the people. The power brokers in Iran elect him. this is just like speculating who will take over the mafia in Montreal when the old boss is shot (which is still fun!)
 

mashdi

Football Legend
Sep 29, 2005
39,274
1
#19
Nice pics of Torghabeh Mashdi Jan. baz dame garm axe shishliko dizi post nakardi delemono kabab koni! :) So I have Ghalibaf for you.
Welcome. but you didn't name that special yummy fruit that is grown in Torghabeh/Anbaroon/Abardeh/Shandiz gardens. i give you a hint : it has the sour taste of gojeh sabz & the sweet taste of zard aloo in one unified taste known in Mashad as " mey khosh ". and it's great in abgoosht.

 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
0
Canada
#20
Still way too early to predict whether they will even go through with this charade before the Guardian Council put their paws on this thing. At the rate things are going, the shit is on its way up to the fan so fast and for so many reasons, the next 7 weeks will be extremely eventful and unpredictable.

I don't think AN will go quietly, nor can he afford to. If he manages to get Mashaei's name on the ballot, he has pretty much hand picked all the people who will oversee the election results in the provinces in the past year and it could very well be a foregone conclusion at this point. For that reason, it will be tough to imagine how the GC will let him run. If they don't, there will likely be a major showdown between AN & Co. and Khaenei et. al. The outcome of that showdown is also unpredictable at this point.

The problem is that some people, and the candidates for that matter, are still assuming that this is a real election, but in reality it isn't. It doesn't matter who people will vote for and it doesn't matter what each candidate's qualification are. What has always mattered is how the SL views a candidate working within the pre-determined framework of the Islamic Republic. At the moment, that's almost entirely based on foreign policy and the illusions of Iran being a powerful and influential leader in the region. On that note, you can certainly dismiss anyone whose focus will be economics as a donkey and scratch him from SL's shortlist.

So Khaenei has a huge dilemma as is and without AN shadowing him at every stage of this game for the next few weeks. Don't forget that every single one of the last 3 presidents has now weakened or challenged SL's standing - only a complete moron and "nokar" (i.e. a real ass kisser) can guarantee Khaenei's interests going forward. I know Mottaki and Jalili fit that bill pretty good! Anyone else?