Will Egyptians become the 1st country to successfully reject Islamism?!

[Bi-honar]

I don't know if you guys have been following the events in Egypt for the past few weeks, but the situation is a spark away from a total implosion of the state. Massive rallies are planned for tomorrow, the anniversary of Morsi coming to power and small warm-up protests in the past few days have left hundreds dead and injured. Used of firearms is becoming more common and the opposition has vowed to bring down the Islamist government tomorrow, having collected 22 million signatures (over 40% of the electorate) for Morsi's resignation!

For the first time since Mubarak's ouster, the army issued a statement this week that they will not stand by idly to watch the country descend into civil war and warned that they would step in to protect the country if the parties can not common ground - a jab at Morsi and a very interesting development considering that the new head of the armed forces was handpicked for that position by Morsi! Even worse, the police have apparently sided with the protestors setting up what will most likely be an epic showdown with Islamism.

After Iranians and Turks have both failed in the past few years to reverse gains made by Islamists and as Libya, Tunisia and Syria are struggling with it, will Egyptians become the first people to successfully oust an Islamist regime and would this have any repercussions for the region as a whole and Iranians in particular? What are your thoughts?

I think that the implications of this new uprising are HUGE, that the Arab Spring was not about exchanging secular autocracies for Islamist ones, but to achieve real democracy and freedom - in that sense, the opponents and their ideologies are irrelevant to the quest for governance by the majority and if this indeed proves to be an indication of the psyche in the region, I think the implications will be enormous for even Iranians.

Informative NYT article on the eve of the massive protests scheduled for tomorrow: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/30/w...x-braces-for-a-spark.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

 

[shahinc]

For the first time since Mubarak's ouster, the army issued a statement this week that they will not stand by idly to watch the country descend into civil war and warned that they would step in to protect the country if the parties can not common ground - a jab at Morsi and a very interesting development considering that the new head of the armed forces was handpicked for that position by Morsi! Even worse, the police have apparently sided with the protestors setting up what will most likely be an epic showdown with Islamism.

Army can actually pick a side on this one and stick by Morsi and basically demolishes the opposition and seal the deal for Morsi and muslim brotherhood. If anything, I fear we will see what happened in Iran happen to Egypt now.

 

[Bi-honar]

I think there's very little chance of that happening at this point bro. They have been trying to stay neutral until this point, but the latest warning was definitely directed at Morsi rather than his opponents. And I think the main reason is that they feel extremely threatened by the Iranian experience in the late 70's and more importantly the Turkish experience in the last few years. Surely, they must be feeling as if it's now or never after what happened in Turkey with the army and the recent protests against Islamism and the ensuing crackdown.

We seem to be the only country that thinks what we do and what happens within our borders are in a vacuum from the rest of the world - that what applies outside Iran will not apply inside. And that's main reason we're still struggling with Islamism 35 years on IMHO. The Turks and Egyptians are a lot more intelligent in learning from other country's past mistakes. In fact, I'm seeing more and more comments from both Egyptians and Turks that they don't want to repeat the "Iranian experience". On that note, their brief experience with Islamists and Islamists seems to have proven too long already and we may very well be witnessing the beginning of the end for this cancerous socio-political force...

 

[Behrooz_C]

Actually, I think most Iranians have already rejected Islamism. Nevermind the regime. Look deeper and the new generation of young people have nothing in common with Islam.

 

[Zob Ahan]

Be Omide Hojjat ebn el Hasan, baleh!

 

[Zob Ahan]

BH jan what is the beef of he protestors? Is it the general fear of political Islam or are there specific issues they are against? I haven't followed Egypt & I am not about to start as following Iran's politics is already taking a toll on my business:dametjoosh:

 

[shahinc]

I think there's very little chance of that happening at this point bro. They have been trying to stay neutral until this point, but the latest warning was definitely directed at Morsi rather than his opponents. And I think the main reason is that they feel extremely threatened by the Iranian experience in the late 70's and more importantly the Turkish experience in the last few years. Surely, they must be feeling as if it's now or never after what happened in Turkey with the army and the recent protests against Islamism and the ensuing crackdown.

We seem to be the only country that thinks what we do and what happens within our borders are in a vacuum from the rest of the world - that what applies outside Iran will not apply inside. And that's main reason we're still struggling with Islamism 35 years on IMHO. The Turks and Egyptians are a lot more intelligent in learning from other country's past mistakes. In fact, I'm seeing more and more comments from both Egyptians and Turks that they don't want to repeat the "Iranian experience". On that note, their brief experience with Islamists and Islamists seems to have proven too long already and we may very well be witnessing the beginning of the end for this cancerous socio-political force...

Lets hope you are right

 

[Bi-honar]

BH jan what is the beef of he protestors? Is it the general fear of political Islam or are there specific issues they are against? I haven't followed Egypt & I am not about to start as following Iran's politics is already taking a toll on my business:dametjoosh:

LOL. Mine too bro.

Well, it all started during the drafting of the constitution last fall. Morsi issued a decree that basically made his decisions and new laws immune from judicial review and challenge as well as the committee in charge of drafting the constitution (straight out of the IR play book basically and making himself a watered down version of VF). The Islamist dominated parliament had already been dissolved by the courts a few months prior. This in effect created total political paralysis and then came the constitution itself which did not guarantee equal rights or protect the minorities - as expected with any Islamist constitution. Protests started back then and have been continuing on and off since then.

But there are also a lot of social issues. Sectarian violence (attacks on Christians and Shias) has increased in the past few months and attacks by Salafis and other hard core groups wanting to push their strict version of Islam on moderate Muslims have also increased - all this is being perceived by the public as an attack on their lives with the support (or indirect support through inaction) of Morsi. And this is all with the backdrop of seriously deteriorating economic conditions (high inflation, high unemployment, serious drop in GDP resulting from loss of tourism, etc.). Morsi has also been very active in suppressing satirists and the press and media in general.

Ultimately, as was the case in Iran (but too little too late) most people are coming to the realization that they were living better lives under Mubarak and they didn't get any of the freedoms that they revolted for, made only worse by having actually lost some of the freedoms they enjoyed in a moderate Egypt - just as was the case in Egypt and the current perception is in Turkey. And because parliament was dissolved, the president can not be impeached, so he either has to resign or be removed by force, which I think what they protestors tomorrow will be hoping to achieve.

Actually, I think most Iranians have already rejected Islamism. Nevermind the regime. Look deeper and the new generation of young people have nothing in common with Islam.

Tough to call it that way Behrooz jaan when two weeks ago, over 50% of them voted for a cleric to be their president! Rejection of Islamism is what the Turks and Egyptians are doing. Iranians have been, and continue on supporting Islamism but they just imagine that they're rejecting it to make themselves feel a little better about their inactions and inadequacies!

 

[Bi-honar]

.................

 

[Motori]

Army can actually pick a side on this one and stick by Morsi and basically demolishes the opposition and seal the deal for Morsi and muslim brotherhood. If anything, I fear we will see what happened in Iran happen to Egypt now.

Shahin jAn,
Very slim chance of that happening. Egyptian Armed Forces heavily depend on annual aid money coming from US. they won't take any action to jeopardize that cash flow and if they crush secular faction of the population they can surely say goodby to that money.

 

[Chinaski]

Shahin jAn,
Very slim chance of that happening. Egyptian Armed Forces heavily depend on annual aid money coming from US. they won't take any action to jeopardize that cash flow and if they crush secular faction of the population they can surely say goodby to that money.

And i say its exactly the other way around. The cash flow will stop as soon as the Army starts backing the uprising against Morsi. Americans didnt topple Mubarak infavour of Morsi to let this important piece in way of islamization of region be toppled by some protesters or the army. He barely knows what he talks about but in this particular case, shahin is spot on.

 

[Motori]

And i say its exactly the other way around. The cash flow will stop as soon as the Army starts backing the uprising against Morsi. Americans didnt topple Mubarak infavour of Morsi to let this important piece in way of islamization of region be toppled by some protesters or the army. He barely knows what he talks about but in this particular case, shahin is spot on.

May be you are right, the way present US administration have been helping to topple secular governments in the region lately your statement is not unlikely. We'll find out tomorrow.

 

[masoudA]

Shahin jAn,
Very slim chance of that happening. Egyptian Armed Forces heavily depend on annual aid money coming from US. they won't take any action to jeopardize that cash flow and if they crush secular faction of the population they can surely say goodby to that money.

Unless if there is an idiot in the WH who presses for it!! just like Jimmy did in 1978!!

 

[masoudA]

Will Egyptians become the 1st country to successfully reject Islamism?!

I agree with Behrouz on this one - I think the core of the Egyptian Society is waaay behind Iran in rejecting an Islamic Theocracy. I think Iran will be the first to do it.......

 

[parham79]

The Egyption Army just warned Morsi you have 48 hours to either resign or we'll act..

 

[Bi-honar]

The Egyption Army just warned Morsi you have 48 hours to either resign or we'll act..

At least I called this one right!

Army statement: "If the demands of the people are not realised within the defined period [48 hours], it will be incumbent upon [the armed forces] ... to announce a road map for the future."

In other important developments in the past 24 hours, 5 ministers have resigned from Morsi's cabinet in a show of solidarity with the protestors and the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood were burnt down and ransacked last night - that was pretty much expected considering the police were marching with the protestors yesterday and had issued a statement that they would not provide protection for the Brotherhood. That led to the Brotherhood making a statement that they would be defending themselves, raising fears of violence spiraling out of control into an armed conflict which is most likely the reason the army has now said that they're going to step in before it's too late.

 

[Bi-honar]

Video of the Brotherhood offices after being attacked and being ransacked - even by little kids! lol

[video=youtube_share;9WyWPS6Lf30]http://youtu.be/9WyWPS6Lf30[/video]

 

[Chinaski]

Joojaro aakhare paaiz mishmoran. Az in baaziaa o statement haa hamishe too in joor keshvaraa boode o hast. Natijeh moheme. Bahs injaa sare ashkhaas nist, Morsi faghat yek mohrast. Mohem ine ke agar ham Morsi raft, ye eslaamist be jaash nayaad vagarna hamoon aashe o hamoon kaaseh. Taa aakhare jaryaan ro donbaal konid, bad dar moredesh bahs mikonim. Islamists are installed to stay no matter with or without Morsi.

Btw, the Egyptians are way more aware of the necessity of secularism than iranians. One of their advantages is that they are arabs! They dont talk like iranians, they hit the streets even if they get beaten up or killed. Even their seculars do have balls. In Iran its mostly the islamists who have the balls to defend their fucked up nezaam o mazhab.

 

[masoudA]

I hate to say it.....but as much as I love to see a secular Egypt.........I think China could be right - this may very well be the final attempt to identify and do away with all progressive modern thinking Egyptian youths, while Obama is still in the office and America is impotent!! I must also add - The Army is a huge factor....It appears unlike what happened to the Iranian army, armed forces in Egypt has nor relinquished all powers the the muslims....hence it can still be a factor as it is demonstrating today....and thank god for that. The worst thing that can happen is a military coup in which some ISlamist Members of the armed forces, with moslem brotherhood ties would take over.

 

[Bi-honar]

Breaking News: Egypt army arrests 15 bodyguards of key Muslim Brotherhood leader Shater: security sources