Safar jaan, I too am following the events as they unfold and I have no idea how declaring the MB illegal came into this equation at all. They may very well split the MB and declare the militant branch of it a terrorist group (as is the case with Hezbollah), but MB will not be dissolved because there's no reason to dissolve it or declare it illegal. By their own admission they only have one million members in a country of 80+ million people and even the 10's of thousands of protestors last week were not MB supporters, but supporters of a "democratically elected" president. That's number one.
Number two, the Brotherhood did go away under Nasser and did stay away for nearly 6 decades despite the rise of Islamism all over the region. The only thing that brought them to the forefront of Egyptian politics again was the will of the people (as a result of their denunciation of violence in the 70's), the political naivety of the Egyptian populace and the timeframe of the elections which did not allow other groups to organize. Those days are gone - the Egyptian populace is not as naïve as they were in 2011, they have been able to organize other groups and their will, the same will that brought MB to the forefront has now forced the MB to the gallows. The Tamarod youth movement for example has millions of members - by some accounts 10 times the member base of the MB and by their own account more than 20 times.
Number three, I have not heard the Algerian experience play into the Egyptian psyche or situation at all. Without a doubt, they're aware of what happened in Algeria, Turkey and Iran, but the latter two are the only ones that I have seen mentioned as models to emulate or avoid respectively. But all that aside, take Algeria's coup and their progress in the following two decades and compare it to Iran's demise in the last two decades (or the two decades immediately after IR's take-over). And please, when you do this comparison, keep in mind how rich Iran was in terms of natural resources, industrial base and skilled population in 1979 versus Algeria of 1991. Can you honestly tell me that this is even a choice that would warrant a second thought?! If you're concerned about the 100,000 or so lives lost in Algeria, please take into account the 1.0 million people who lost their lives in the Iran-Iraq war, the million people who have died on Iranian roads since, the 5 million people who have become addicts and may as well be dead and the over 2 million highly educated and highly skilled people that became victims of the brain-drain and tell me if we're keeping things in perspective.
Number two, the Brotherhood did go away under Nasser and did stay away for nearly 6 decades despite the rise of Islamism all over the region. The only thing that brought them to the forefront of Egyptian politics again was the will of the people (as a result of their denunciation of violence in the 70's), the political naivety of the Egyptian populace and the timeframe of the elections which did not allow other groups to organize. Those days are gone - the Egyptian populace is not as naïve as they were in 2011, they have been able to organize other groups and their will, the same will that brought MB to the forefront has now forced the MB to the gallows. The Tamarod youth movement for example has millions of members - by some accounts 10 times the member base of the MB and by their own account more than 20 times.
Number three, I have not heard the Algerian experience play into the Egyptian psyche or situation at all. Without a doubt, they're aware of what happened in Algeria, Turkey and Iran, but the latter two are the only ones that I have seen mentioned as models to emulate or avoid respectively. But all that aside, take Algeria's coup and their progress in the following two decades and compare it to Iran's demise in the last two decades (or the two decades immediately after IR's take-over). And please, when you do this comparison, keep in mind how rich Iran was in terms of natural resources, industrial base and skilled population in 1979 versus Algeria of 1991. Can you honestly tell me that this is even a choice that would warrant a second thought?! If you're concerned about the 100,000 or so lives lost in Algeria, please take into account the 1.0 million people who lost their lives in the Iran-Iraq war, the million people who have died on Iranian roads since, the 5 million people who have become addicts and may as well be dead and the over 2 million highly educated and highly skilled people that became victims of the brain-drain and tell me if we're keeping things in perspective.
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Huh? This makes no sense ... who said Jews? Did you read the word Jews? What does "Jew" have anything to do with this. No, address it. You don't seem to be tired of writing of everyone's point.
I simply pointed out that you were dead wrong in this. I even gave evidence. Fact is. To Israelis, Zionism is a great thing! Even though it's a dread and terror for the rest of the region (and world). Incredible self-entitlement assumptions behind it.
I simply pointed out that you were dead wrong in this. I even gave evidence. Fact is. To Israelis, Zionism is a great thing! Even though it's a dread and terror for the rest of the region (and world). Incredible self-entitlement assumptions behind it.
You said in your post that Elbaradei stance was soft against Islamism and Islamists. I guess the Army not as soft, so what did they do, they declared MB as illegal. You either want them to participate in the political process, or you declare them illegal which the army did. By the way I found your statement about Elbardei a littel kam lotfi when you say he is completely misinformed about the dynamics of Egypt's political landscape, do you really think we are better informed about a country in which we have never lived than a politician much older than us who have had high offices during his career?
OK I take one million membership for MB, what is the membership of the next political organization? Are there any meaningful political parties other then MB in Egypt?
It did not go away for six decades, it went underground. It was active. Do you really think MB created the organization which help them won the election overnight last year?
What progress are we talking about? There has been a civil war in Algeria and per Wiki the number of casualties have been 44,000 to 200,000 (in a country of 25 to 31 million) since the coup. Algerian regime is a absolute dictatorship, it defended Qaddafi and stands against any movements toward democratization in the Arab world.
OK I take one million membership for MB, what is the membership of the next political organization? Are there any meaningful political parties other then MB in Egypt?
It did not go away for six decades, it went underground. It was active. Do you really think MB created the organization which help them won the election overnight last year?
What progress are we talking about? There has been a civil war in Algeria and per Wiki the number of casualties have been 44,000 to 200,000 (in a country of 25 to 31 million) since the coup. Algerian regime is a absolute dictatorship, it defended Qaddafi and stands against any movements toward democratization in the Arab world.
Here is a Muslim's idea of democracy:
Either include us in power making decisions or we will burn down churches, send some suicide bombers your way, and create a full bliwn civil war.
And when we are included in the government we like to dictate the laws, prosecute other religous minorities, and pretty much exclude anyone who doesnt agree with us. Thats why Muslim countries are either ran by dictators or have riots raging.
Either include us in power making decisions or we will burn down churches, send some suicide bombers your way, and create a full bliwn civil war.
And when we are included in the government we like to dictate the laws, prosecute other religous minorities, and pretty much exclude anyone who doesnt agree with us. Thats why Muslim countries are either ran by dictators or have riots raging.
These are the only options? How about not allowing them to rig the system. What some people here want is letting them manipulate the process in their own favor it just a "little bit" just so they can get comfortable with the idea of democracy. This is why some of the anti-coup people here have been arguing that MB wasn't "really" as bad as people have made them out to be. Aside from that fact that this is notion is dangerous and patently stupid, it is also grounded in a false belief. Muslim brotherhood is a lot more radical than Shia Islamists in Iran and Lebanon. It's only slightly less extreme than Taliban.
How about not letting them get their legitimacy back? moreover, how about not letting the military to rig the whole process of democratization. This whole coup has failed. The issue is that there was no need for a coup in the first place. It has been counter-productive. And there is also no such thing as a "democratic coup" as we have seen it today.
Whether you believe there was a need for it or not, it seems a sizable portion of Egyptian society preferred the coup to the alternative of letting MB manipulate the process. I can't blame them for wanting the military to rig the process instead. People in our region are used getting fucked over one way or another. They were no closer to democracy then, than they are now. The way we in the US dealt with racist southern Democrats back in the middle of the last century wasn't exactly democratic either but it was effective. We didn't outlaw being racist, nor did let them rig the system any longer for their own benefit in the south. I was merely pointing out that there is an alternative to what the Egyptian military has done in the past. Their handling of the situation is more a representation of the despotism that rules our mentality in the Middle East than anything else.
Sorry Safar jaan, I was away for the weekend. Who declared MB "illegal"?
That wasn't my statement Safar jaan, rather the criticism that was directed at El Baradaei by Egyptian media and the army in the past few weeks. And to answer your question, No, I don't at all think that I am better informed about the Egyptian psyche than Egyptian intellectuals or the populace in general. That's why, unlike some of our friends here, I take into account their take on the situation before I even formulate an opinion of my own.
Tamarod is the name of an umbrella group of loosely affiliated youth and student groups who initiated and were at the forefront of the 2011 revolution. They were completely left out of the political process and as a result felt that their revolution was stolen and resented both the army and the MB for that. They claim that they collected over 20 million signatures in the weeks leading up to the 2013 protests and Morsi's overthrow. Based on the numbers they managed to get onto the streets versus the MB protests. and their success again, I would be inclined to accept that their member base is multiples of MB's, even if it's not the 20 million they claim.
I call it po-tae-toe, you call it po-ta-toe. Whether they went away/underground for 6 decades is just a question of semantics. The reason for their success in the elections was two fold IMHO, one of which I already alluded to and it was that the secular groups were fragmented and did not have time to form a meaningful umbrella group that attracted a lot of the population. The 2nd reason was that the Egyptian populace had no experience in democracy or a political culture, so the easiest way to reach them was through religious sympathies - the exact same sympathies/weakness the IR took advantage of in 1979 and the exact same weakness we still see some of our good friends here on ISP fall victim to.
Absolute dictatorship?! Based on what?! They are on a path to democracy, have held several elections, many amnesties were issued and almost all non-militant political prisoners were freed. Their GDP has skyrocketed from 50B to 200B in just a decade (300% increase). They have a higher life expectancy than Iran and rank much better in corruption (CPI) and press freedoms. Without any of Iran's wealth of natural and human resources, their GDP per capita has actually surpassed us! This is all in a country that was at the verge of economic collapse at the time of that infamous coup - just like Egypt was two months ago.
That wasn't my statement Safar jaan, rather the criticism that was directed at El Baradaei by Egyptian media and the army in the past few weeks. And to answer your question, No, I don't at all think that I am better informed about the Egyptian psyche than Egyptian intellectuals or the populace in general. That's why, unlike some of our friends here, I take into account their take on the situation before I even formulate an opinion of my own.
Tamarod is the name of an umbrella group of loosely affiliated youth and student groups who initiated and were at the forefront of the 2011 revolution. They were completely left out of the political process and as a result felt that their revolution was stolen and resented both the army and the MB for that. They claim that they collected over 20 million signatures in the weeks leading up to the 2013 protests and Morsi's overthrow. Based on the numbers they managed to get onto the streets versus the MB protests. and their success again, I would be inclined to accept that their member base is multiples of MB's, even if it's not the 20 million they claim.
I call it po-tae-toe, you call it po-ta-toe. Whether they went away/underground for 6 decades is just a question of semantics. The reason for their success in the elections was two fold IMHO, one of which I already alluded to and it was that the secular groups were fragmented and did not have time to form a meaningful umbrella group that attracted a lot of the population. The 2nd reason was that the Egyptian populace had no experience in democracy or a political culture, so the easiest way to reach them was through religious sympathies - the exact same sympathies/weakness the IR took advantage of in 1979 and the exact same weakness we still see some of our good friends here on ISP fall victim to.
Absolute dictatorship?! Based on what?! They are on a path to democracy, have held several elections, many amnesties were issued and almost all non-militant political prisoners were freed. Their GDP has skyrocketed from 50B to 200B in just a decade (300% increase). They have a higher life expectancy than Iran and rank much better in corruption (CPI) and press freedoms. Without any of Iran's wealth of natural and human resources, their GDP per capita has actually surpassed us! This is all in a country that was at the verge of economic collapse at the time of that infamous coup - just like Egypt was two months ago.
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Little ironic bro that after 6 weeks, you're ready to proclaim that this coup has failed, but after 35 miserable years of experience with Islamists in Iran, you're not prepared to accept that particular experience has failed, don't you think?! 
If you're referring to me, my take on this situation has been and continues to be a lot more sophisticated than a black or white was this a coup or not - and the fact that even the White House is still on the fence with this issue, should speak volumes as to who has an overly simplistic view of the situation and who needs to change their stance. And if you came to that conclusion because I used the word coup in my last few posts, then you should know that I put it in quotes every time, just so that we can see who's not paying attention!
If you're referring to me, my take on this situation has been and continues to be a lot more sophisticated than a black or white was this a coup or not - and the fact that even the White House is still on the fence with this issue, should speak volumes as to who has an overly simplistic view of the situation and who needs to change their stance. And if you came to that conclusion because I used the word coup in my last few posts, then you should know that I put it in quotes every time, just so that we can see who's not paying attention!
Sina jaan, I agree with the essence of what you're saying. The only word I would change in that post are Muslim to Islamist (in both instances). After all, Turks are muslim, as are the Indonesians and Malaysians. Algerians and Egyptians are on their way too, Tunisians and Libyans will soon follow and I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Ethiopians manage to have a working democracy while Iran, South Lebanon and Gaza are sinking deeper into shit every day.
Little ironic bro that after 6 weeks, you're ready to proclaim that this coup has failed, but after 35 miserable years of experience with Islamists in Iran, you're not prepared to accept that particular experience has failed, don't you think?!
Where did you get the idea from?
And no, I did not refer to you.
Hahahaha!!!!!
This is classic. You guys just read the title of the article and thought you agreed with it!!!
The article says almost exactly what I have been arguing. It is comparing Brotherhood with IRI (which is good comparison) but also the army with Saddam, and suggesting that the path the army has taken will only empower Brotherhood, much like Saddam's attack on Iran empowered IRI's grip on the country.
I'm glad you two agree with me
From the article:
"Drawing on this analysis, it becomes apparent how such an attack may in fact empower its target. Even in the month leading up to last week's events, hundreds of Morsi supporters were killed – more than 50 in a day on two different occasions (8 and 27 July in Cairo) by some accounts.
Multiplying unknown warriors are replacing the compromises, circumventions, and slow grind of power's actual exercise. The Brotherhood is back on the oppositional terrain it knows much better, but with far greater scope for action than was historically the norm.
In the absence of a rapid settlement, perhaps the truest danger now is that the Brotherhood, like the young republic of 1980s Iran, will decide it simply has more to gain from all-out war."
This is classic. You guys just read the title of the article and thought you agreed with it!!!
The article says almost exactly what I have been arguing. It is comparing Brotherhood with IRI (which is good comparison) but also the army with Saddam, and suggesting that the path the army has taken will only empower Brotherhood, much like Saddam's attack on Iran empowered IRI's grip on the country.
I'm glad you two agree with me
From the article:
"Drawing on this analysis, it becomes apparent how such an attack may in fact empower its target. Even in the month leading up to last week's events, hundreds of Morsi supporters were killed – more than 50 in a day on two different occasions (8 and 27 July in Cairo) by some accounts.
Multiplying unknown warriors are replacing the compromises, circumventions, and slow grind of power's actual exercise. The Brotherhood is back on the oppositional terrain it knows much better, but with far greater scope for action than was historically the norm.
In the absence of a rapid settlement, perhaps the truest danger now is that the Brotherhood, like the young republic of 1980s Iran, will decide it simply has more to gain from all-out war."
Hahahaha!!!!!
This is classic. You guys just read the title of the article and thought you agreed with it!!!
The article says almost exactly what I have been arguing. It is comparing Brotherhood with IRI (which is good comparison) but also the army with Saddam, and suggesting that the path the army has taken will only empower Brotherhood, much like Saddam's attack on Iran empowered IRI's grip on the country.
I'm glad you two agree with me
From the article:
"Drawing on this analysis, it becomes apparent how such an attack may in fact empower its target. Even in the month leading up to last week's events, hundreds of Morsi supporters were killed – more than 50 in a day on two different occasions (8 and 27 July in Cairo) by some accounts.
Multiplying unknown warriors are replacing the compromises, circumventions, and slow grind of power's actual exercise. The Brotherhood is back on the oppositional terrain it knows much better, but with far greater scope for action than was historically the norm.
In the absence of a rapid settlement, perhaps the truest danger now is that the Brotherhood, like the young republic of 1980s Iran, will decide it simply has more to gain from all-out war."
This is classic. You guys just read the title of the article and thought you agreed with it!!!
The article says almost exactly what I have been arguing. It is comparing Brotherhood with IRI (which is good comparison) but also the army with Saddam, and suggesting that the path the army has taken will only empower Brotherhood, much like Saddam's attack on Iran empowered IRI's grip on the country.
I'm glad you two agree with me
From the article:
"Drawing on this analysis, it becomes apparent how such an attack may in fact empower its target. Even in the month leading up to last week's events, hundreds of Morsi supporters were killed – more than 50 in a day on two different occasions (8 and 27 July in Cairo) by some accounts.
Multiplying unknown warriors are replacing the compromises, circumventions, and slow grind of power's actual exercise. The Brotherhood is back on the oppositional terrain it knows much better, but with far greater scope for action than was historically the norm.
In the absence of a rapid settlement, perhaps the truest danger now is that the Brotherhood, like the young republic of 1980s Iran, will decide it simply has more to gain from all-out war."
The article is basically saying that MB was at a strength level of 7 (out of 10) and rising at the time of the "coup". Had they been allowed to continue, they would have been at a strength level of 10 just like the IR (what most of us here have been arguing). The military action in early July reduced them to a strength level of 2 (as such, the article is NOT arguing against the merits of the original military take over, contrary to what you like to make yourself belive). Then it goes on to say that the subsequent crackdown (that's what "such an attack" is referring to) may have reduced them to a strength level of 1 in the short term, but it "MAY" [important keyword] actually strengthen them over time to let's say 3.
So what, you want acknowledgement from us that 1 MAY turn to 3 and 3 is larger than 1 and 2?!!! You got it man, I agree with you 100% that if it goes to 3, that would be larger than 1 and 2. Now, let's see how many more pages, articles, years, revolutions or miracles performed by prophets themselves is going to take to get you to acknowledge that 7 and 10 are larger than 3!!!