Reflect your thoughts on 22 Bahman in Iran

[footballeirani]

First off let me say that I was not anticipating a revolution today but in light of the recent protests and unrest, I thought that more people were going to come on the streets and make their voices heard.

Obviously most of that did not materialize today. I know that people protested to some extent but I think the strategies need to be revisited and there has to be a clear vision.

People need to know what they are fighting for. What is it that you are seeking? How will that affect them and their families?

Protesting on symbolic days for the regime is fine but when you keep doing it repeatedly then what type of message does it send?

Why have not Mousavi or Karroubi called for a national day of protests since June? Mark it on a random day. This does not have to be violent but just a show of force. I am honestly sick and tired of these useless statements.

I do not want to only blame Mousavi and Karroubi as they have made personal sacrifices but in my opinion they are doing such a horrendous job that makes you think what their vision is? Why do not they plead for action?

Poshte sare ham statement midan ke things are bad. I sorta got that after the first letter, but please tell what would you like us to do?

Last but not least how many people are truly serious about changing this regime? Two weeks ago over 100,000 fans showed up in Teraktor's stadium in Tabriz to protest a Navad episode!

How many came out today in Tabriz? My problem with all this is that there is a circus and khar to khar mentality that governs the daily life of most Iranians. Remember the week before elections..when people were dancing on the streets as they were in a club or something?

Hamash circus...and then they want to change the regime! :smile:

 

[Bache Tehroon]

1. The regime's paranoia about today resulted in a very successful show of "Crowd Control" that has never been seen in the past.

2. The Greens had a much smaller presence than expected.

3. It sounds like more people left Tehran to go to Shomal than the ones that attended the protests. I have heard this from 4 different people in Tehran so far.

4. Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and co. will not be steering this movement much longer. They have shown little creativity and wisdom in their strategies. Their arrests are also not too improbable.

5. The regime has lots and lots and lots of security forces. Way too many for the minimal showing by people. At least a few million need to be present for these forces to lose their grip on things.

6. Greens took a bad blow today thanks to multiple factors. Time to rethink many things including the whole "peaceful" thing.


No reason to call me a pessimist. The evidence is out there and it would be foolish to lie to ourselves. Our people lost the day's game.

The movement is going to win at the end, because people always win.

If you are a hezbollahi and enjoying these words I'm typing: Be oonjaye nanat khandidi. Emrooz faghat ye rooz bood. Vay behalet dar roozha va hafteha va mah-ha va salhaye ayandeh.

 

[arash_kaman]

lol man, i think this regime has more then a million security forces wtf tehran was overpowered by the numbers of the security personnel

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Sorry I didn't see this thread. I posted a new thread here Reality check - Community - IranSportsPress.com

Admin feel free to mix them

 

[Behrooz_C]

Well, it's easy to "win" when you have all the resources at your disposal and have thousands of forces ready to use violence in your cause. It's easy to "lose" when you have nothing but your voice.

But these wins and loses mean shit because take away the force factor and the regime has nothing. Why else would they have to line streets with thousands of anti-riot police and basijis on the bikes? If they really have the popularity they claim they do then they'd not have to resort to these things. They'd let people demonstrate for free, because they are more right? So why worry about a few protestors?

But the reality is that they are minority and they know it.

 

[masoudA]

You are absolutely correct -
Howver,
1- We already knew Moussavi and co. have been following, and can't and will never lead Green or anything.
2- We have been advertising dates and locations - to give IR time to prepare and react. We will no longer do that. So far we have just been using what was available - and have been successful in turning the IR party to a nightmare - still ongoing.

 

[keyvan_pars]

1. The regime's paranoia about today resulted in a very successful show of "Crowd Control" that has never been seen in the past.

2. The Greens had a much smaller presence than expected.

3. It sounds like more people left Tehran to go to Shomal than the ones that attended the protests. I have heard this from 4 different people in Tehran so far.

4. Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and co. will not be steering this movement much longer. They have shown little creativity and wisdom in their strategies. Their arrests are also not too improbable.

5. The regime has lots and lots and lots of security forces. Way too many for the minimal showing by people. At least a few million need to be present for these forces to lose their grip on things.

6. Greens took a bad blow today thanks to multiple factors. Time to rethink many things including the whole "peaceful" thing.


No reason to call me a pessimist. The evidence is out there and it would be foolish to lie to ourselves. Our people lost the day's game.

I would call you a realist and your assessment a factual and logical reflection of today's events.

The movement is going to win at the end, because people always win.

I don't know about that Soroush jaan, you see countries such as Pakistan and Burma that have been in existence under the similar sort of status Quo for decades.

and i have to add that i sincerely hope i am wrong and you are right.

If you are a hezbollahi and enjoying these words I'm typing: Be oonjaye nanat khandidi. Emrooz faghat ye rooz bood. Vay behalet dar roozha va hafteha va mah-ha va salhaye ayandeh.

I have to respect your post even more because you have included MEMBERS OF THE ANIMAL KINGDOM without any discrimination.

I mean as much as you know these people came out of WHORE holes that have many fathers and NEW CITY mothers but you still give them your attention.

Its a pleasure to read your posts and the first time i am in your neck of the woods I will take your and your loved one to little Italy for the best lemon chicken i know in Canada.

 

[IranZamin]

I posted this in the news thread. I guess it belongs here instead.

While I'm a bit disappointed, I'm not defeated in the least. I remember September and October when things really seemed to have died down. I remember the discouraging turnout on Qods day. Privately, I was beginning to lose hope. Then came December and the epic events on Student's Day and Ashoura. Remember, this is going to take a while. There will be ups and downs.

Having said that, it's pretty clear now that the strategy to 'conquer' Azadi was misguided. The aim should have been to concentrate elsewhere through the city and make our presence felt, although the regime seemed to have over-prepared for this particular day, which leads me to the next point.

An emerging problem is that the regime can somewhat afford to bring in maximum force once every few weeks or months. That won't cause much demoralization or attrition among their ranks. In the absence of strikes, the movement needs to escalate protests from the sporadic occasions on 'official' days to a more regular schedule. I know my own neck isn't on the line and I'm not the one risking my life, but especially after today's mediocre turnout we can't just wait another few months for the next government-sponsored occasion. Mousavi and Karoubi need to get more aggressive.

 

[shahinc]

4. Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and co. will not be steering this movement much longer. They have shown little creativity and wisdom in their strategies. Their arrests are also not too improbable.

.

They will not be arrested !! They are not doing anything that significant right now why arrest them and risk the reaction from people !!!

As far as people goes , I don't blame them. It is hard to go against that many security people when you have no plans and organization.

Example: Has there been a fund set up to help the families of the ordinary green supporter prisoners during these tough times ?? eyd is behind the corner and some of these guys have families which depend on them and ...

 

[footballeirani]

This speaks volumes for how unorganized and badly managed the Greens are.

They brought in security forces from elsewhere to contain the protesters. The natural response would have been to stretch the security personnel too thin by aggressively perusing protests in other and smaller cities.

Seriously how hard would it have been for Mousavi to come out and say on 22 Bahman we will ask for freedom and our civil liberties by protesting in every major square in Tehran?

Was the ridiculous march on Azadi really necessary when the square was already occupied by Basij that literally slept there the night before?

 

[deerouz]

I posted this in the news thread. I guess it belongs here instead.

While I'm a bit disappointed, I'm not defeated in the least. I remember September and October when things really seemed to have died down. I remember the discouraging turnout on Qods day. Privately, I was beginning to lose hope. Then came December and the epic events on Student's Day and Ashoura. Remember, this is going to take a while. There will be ups and downs.

Having said that, it's pretty clear now that the strategy to 'conquer' Azadi was misguided. The aim should have been to concentrate elsewhere through the city and make our presence felt, although the regime seemed to have over-prepared for this particular day, which leads me to the next point.

An emerging problem is that the regime can somewhat afford to bring in maximum force once every few weeks or months. That won't cause much demoralization or attrition among their ranks. In the absence of strikes, the movement needs to escalate protests from the sporadic occasions on 'official' days to a more regular schedule. I know my own neck isn't on the line and I'm not the one risking my life, but especially after today's mediocre turnout we can't just wait another few months for the next government-sponsored occasion. Mousavi and Karoubi need to get more aggressive.

Well said on every point. Personally, I am amazed that after eight months and thousands of arrests and regime's promise every time that "this time it will be the last nail on the coffin of the green", again next time people show up (regardless of the numbers). My friends in Tehran also report the heaviest police/bassij presence ever seen (unprecedent for any 22 Bahman rally, which is typically very relaxed), which shows the amount of fear in regime's heart. So no, I am not disheartened at all.

This regime is on the way out because that is a historical inevitablilty, however as IZ pointed out, different strategies can speed it up or slow it down. The startegy of trying to take over occasions worked for a while. New strategies must be discovered.

And most importantly, remember that our countrymen in Iran have a job to do, and we have our own. We cannot dictate to them what to do; they are the ones on the ground. Let's do our task: finding ways to expose this regime and putting pressure on it from outside, anything else that could help our brothers and sisters back home. Let's get creative on what we can do from here.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Ok well at this point I guess we should wait for people to build 2lbs Narenjaks for 4-shanbe-soori and blow up the whole fucking city.

For a movement that involves at least 30 million supporters we sure lack creativity and even some half-ass organization.

Do I sound frustrated? Well I am.

 

[shahinc]

This regime is on the way out because that is a historical inevitablilty, however as IZ pointed out, different strategies can speed it up or slow it down. The startegy of trying to take over occasions worked for a while. New strategies must be discovered.

.

While I agree with what you said but I think it is foolish of the leadership of the Green to think they will enjoy the support of people for ever despit the lack of planing and forward thinking.

People can get discourage and loss interest. Why do I risk my life, the wellfare of my family for a movement that is going no where ?

Why stand behind a leader who has no idea how to achive a victory and ...

This is long battle. No one is denying it. No one is expecting a quick victory and ... However, time is runing out on the leadership of the movement to change course and come up with new approaches.

They need to keep people engaged while reducing the risk that they are exposing people to.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Personally, I am amazed that after eight months and thousands of arrests and regime's promise every time that "this time it will be the last nail on the coffin of the green", again next time people show up (regardless of the numbers).

Deerouzjan, I'm not sure you should be amazed. What else should they do? It's not like they're doing this for someone else. They're doing it because their lives are going down the shitter and they fully know it. Wouldn't you do the same or even more? What should they be scared of when they live in a living hell under the rule of Islamic Fascism?

I think we need to slow down on giving the people a 20 mark on everything. It's their country and they have the duty to do whatever it takes to make it a better place or simply flee to another place on earth like we did.

 

[Azhidahak]

The thing is, the only thing that keeps the regim alive is that they have put ALL THEIR forces and EVERYTHING they have together to prevent a disaster. My questions is:

For how long can they keep having maximum forces on the streets on every special occassion?? A city can never be ruled in this way, and as soon as they cut down on their forces and chill out a little bit, people will strike back harder than ever and then its game over.

Its like a boxing match, you can hold up your guard really strong for a couple of rounds and stay up strong, but eventually your arms cant take it anymore and as soon as you drop your guard you are dead!

 

[spanx]

While I understand how you are trying to have a positive take on this situation moving forward, I don't share your optimism.

The nature of these demonstrations have been building momentum in each one to the next. Obviously since the movement no longer has an apparent leader, the turnouts have been fluctuating, but yeseterday was supposed to be the day where there were no excuses, especially after the price paid in Ashura.

Let's not step back and say "oh we just planned to ruin their celebration", you know that was not the consensus before the event. While none of us believed the regime would be toppled in this day, we thought a big step would be taken, instead a few steps were taken back.

Right now, this movement is not organized enough to even carry out a nation wide demonstration, where people just have to come out on a day where it's "leagal" to do so, let alone taking part in massive strikes and civil movements which need incredible organization.

Maybe some spontaneous event in the coming days will spark some reaction, but as of now I don't see it. It's no secret that the regime does not have the support of the people, that has been the case for the past 10 years, it's how they control the reaction that matters and today they did a more than good enough job. I agree with you that a government not based on its people's approval is doomed, but the time line is the question.

 

[keyvan_pars]

Its a vital time for the nation of Iran.

Unfortunately, I am coming to the conclusion that I thought of a while back. This is a nation that is divided, not down the middle, but divided, however.

There are Iranians, such as myself, that are born Muslims. Then there are Muslims that speak Farsi. (i.e. Bassidj, Velaayat, nokiseh is shahrak e gharb, jordan, toronto, LA etc)

The latter group has the money, positions and the freedom to send their kids to Universities in Europe, US and Canada; send their wives to London, Milan and Frankfurt for shopping and to run third world standard factories, shops and shopping malls.

The former, however, have nothing; are given no chances and are distributed drugs to put matters out of their heads. Some are happy with the occasional Crystal Meth hit and the friday afternoon lay many millions want more from life.

They want what others will not give them, so one way or the other they will take it.

Now the "one way" avenue (peaceful Ghandi and MLK Jr.) method has been explored and it is failing again as it did in India, US, Britain etc etc.

"The other" avenue is about to be open and let me tell you "there will be blood". The blood will consecrate our soil and from the ashes will rise a free and economically democratic Iran in which we all in our own little way will be able to contribute.

I, myself, am willing to spend all my years before retirement teaching Math, English, Computer Skills in the least hospitable parts of Iran such as Baluchistan, Elaam, Lorestan etc.

 

[Farbod (ADC)]

I think we need to start looking at a sad reality. That some of the so called leaders of the greens (Mousavi, etc.) might be playing a shell game. Where they keep the greens at bay, albeit active, for protection or a certain amount of clout in the current regime. Basically playing both sides against one another. This might not be the case, but Im trying to think of other reasons for their actions besides just plain idiocy and cowardice.

 

[Azhidahak]

Not sure which thread that will be used, so I post here as well:

The thing is, the only thing that keeps the regim alive is that they have put ALL THEIR forces and EVERYTHING they have together to prevent a disaster. My questions is:

For how long can they keep having maximum forces on the streets on every special occassion?? A city can never be ruled in this way, and as soon as they cut down on their forces and chill out a little bit, people will strike back harder than ever and then its game over.

Its like a boxing match, you can hold up your guard really strong for a couple of rounds and stay up strong, but eventually your arms cant take it anymore and as soon as you drop your guard you are dead!

 

[Iran-Parast]

National strikes is another way of bringing this regime down. Violence is not always the answer.