Reflect your thoughts on 22 Bahman in Iran

[IranZamin]

Let's do our task: finding ways to expose this regime and putting pressure on it from outside, anything else that could help our brothers and sisters back home. Let's get creative on what we can do from here.

One thing I've been thinking about is raising money to put full page ads in major publications on a regular basis. The aim would be to impress upon Western public opinion that this regime is as morally repugnant as the South African Apartheid and must be dealt with the same way.

I don't know how much it would cost but I'll happily donate no matter the price. We have enough articulate members here to draft a statement together worthy of the cause.

 

[Pooya]

I agree with Soroush, Karoubi going home after he got injured was just lame

 

[reza+]

I left iran in the autumn of 1978 (just a few months before the revolution succeeded) when i was just a young teenager .... for almost 30 years I'd go back to iran every couple of years, mainly in summer time and noruz.... almost every time i'd hear people, relatives, friends complain and moan about this and that ... and the general feeling i got was that iri was sort of very "un-popular" all those years and that it would fall soon ....

last year, i had to go home during the election week and i saw for myself that iri and ahmadinejad had substantial core support (at least in mashad) and i was sort of astonished that people of all sorts (mainly the religious/poorer type) supported iri and ahmadinejad ... i became convinced then that iri is here to stay for a long time to come.... remember the vast majority of iranians are religious/poor ...so they "naturally" have solid support... ... some of you guys may not have been to iran recently ... but the reality is not what our own close circle of "affluent/open minded" friends/family/relatives tell you... some of you guys may be astonished to know that even under iri, there are people who would NOT listen to music being broadcast by irib itself coz they consider it "haram"... there are people who would not (ever) even allow iri's own sanctioned music (or any sort of music) to be played at their weddings .... and of course money money ... a lot of "poor" people think ahmadinejad will make their lives better and better

aside from their core support in society, do not underestimate iri.... it's a well organised, vibrant, ans still a highly motivated system ...with various soft/hard organs to contain and defeat oppositions of all kinds

don't get me wrong .... the "opposition" has great support (particularly in tehran) ... and i think eventually iri will be engulfed by the "total" frustration of the "majority" but i'm not sure when... my personal feeling is that fatigue is iri's greatest threat to its survival.... economic hardship will be deciding factor for the poor in the next few years ... but i don't see any sign of fatigue or economic collapse

frankly a lot of people are too indifferent to care ... the opposition should concentrate on the economy and prove that ahmadinejad's principal promises have failed to materialise.... it's a long marathon ...the opposition should attack the gov's weak points via any media outlet and .....

 

[Bache Tehroon]

One thing I've been thinking about is raising money to put full page ads in major publications on a regular basis. The aim would be to impress upon Western public opinion that this regime is as morally repugnant as the South African Apartheid and must be dealt with the same way.

I don't know how much it would cost but I'll happily donate no matter the price. We have enough articulate members here to draft a statement together worthy of the cause.

It costs a lot aziz. A lot. Not sustainable for even a month.

 

[IranZamin]

Like what's the ballpark?

Edit: Nevermind. I just did a search and for a paper like Wall Street Journal it costs $200,000! It's around a 1,000 for local paper ads, but that won't have the same impact.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

I left iran in the autumn of 1978 (just a few months before the revolution succeeded) when i was just a young teenager .... for almost 30 years I'd go back to iran every couple of years, mainly in summer time and noruz.... almost every time i'd hear people, relatives, friends complain and moan about this and that ... and the general feeling i got was that iri was sort of very "un-popular" all those years and that it would fall soon ....

last year, i had to go home during the election week and i saw for myself that iri and ahmadinejad had substantial core support (at least in mashad) and i was sort of astonished that people of all sorts (mainly the religious/poorer type) supported iri and ahmadinejad ... i became convinced then that iri is here to stay for a long time to come.... remember the vast majority of iranians are religious/poor ...so they "naturally" have solid support... ... some of you guys may not have been to iran recently ... but the reality is not what our own close circle of "affluent/open minded" friends/family/relatives tell you... some of you guys may be astonished to know that even under iri, there are people who would NOT listen to music being broadcast by irib itself coz they consider it "haram"... there are people who would not (ever) even allow iri's own sanctioned music (or any sort of music) to be played at their weddings .... and of course money money ... a lot of "poor" people think ahmadinejad will make their lives better and better

aside from their core support in society, do not underestimate iri.... it's a well organised, vibrant, ans still a highly motivated system ...with various soft/hard organs to contain and defeat oppositions of all kinds

don't get me wrong .... the "opposition" has great support (particularly in tehran) ... and i think eventually iri will be engulfed by the "total" frustration of the "majority" but i'm not sure when... my personal feeling is that fatigue is iri's greatest threat to its survival.... economic hardship will be deciding factor for the poor in the next few years ... but i don't see any sign of fatigue or economic collapse

frankly a lot of people are too indifferent to care ... the opposition should concentrate on the economy and prove that ahmadinejad's principal promises have failed to materialise.... it's a long marathon ...the opposition should attack the gov's weak points via any media outlet and .....

I agree for the most part except on AN having support. He really doesn't. He has very little support.

But the fact remains and you said it:

frankly a lot of people are too indifferent to care

 

[khodam]

Time is on our side. It is more important to do this right than do it soon. Wisdom AND Patience should be modus operandi for the green movement.

It was wrong to fantasize about what 22B should've been. It was always going to be a step in the process. In my opinion, it was a step forward. It showed the limit of the regime's might (not their brutality though). We will grow, they will decline. That's inevitable. This is not a war they can win but it's one that we can lose. Patience and wisdom is what it takes to do this right.

 

[Pooya]

I agree for the most part except on AN having support. He really doesn't. He has very little support.

But the fact remains and you said it:

Soroush my friend went to a trip all over iran, (he is a photographer) he went to many cities and villages, he said the support AN has OUTSIDE tehran is amazing, he said people pray to him.

 

[Farbod (ADC)]

I agree for the most part except on AN having support. He really doesn't. He has very little support.

But the fact remains and you said it:

If you are paying people, bussing them in, and giving them food and comfort, then anyone can have support.

How many would take a beating for AN? ZERO.

 

[reza+]

can admin pls merge this with BT's thread on the same subect?

 

[footballeirani]

He definitely has their support because the AN government is handing out cash and incentives to the poor. That is no big secret.

The question is how do you organize fund drives and get the money in the hands of those affected without having some opportunist jackass taking it all? :sad3:

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Time is on our side. It is more important to do this right than do it soon. Wisdom AND Patience should be modus operandi for the green movement.

It was wrong to fantasize about what 22B should've been. It was always going to be a step in the process. In my opinion, it was a step forward. It showed the limit of the regime's might (not their brutality though). We will grow, they will decline. That's inevitable. This is not a war they can win but it's one that we can lose. Patience and wisdom is what it takes to do this right.

Khodamjan,

How do you know it showed the "limit of the regime's might"? We thought the same thing on previous protests and this time they managed to surprise us yet again. Remember we've seen no armored vehicles, tanks, automatic weapons and even true military personnel on streets. You really think they don't have them?

And time is NOT on our side. It's on their side. The longer this takes, the easier they can contain it and steal more and more. Oil is a finite entity and I'm not sure how great of a country Iran would be if it ran out under this regime.

The other concern is, if the movement dies, Iran will become a target for USA and Israel. A war is not what we want to see. A defeated and poor nation is not exactly the ideal we are looking for is it?

 

[Pooya]

He definitely has their support because the AN government is handing out cash and incentives to the poor. That is no big secret.

The question is how do you organize fund drives and get the money in the hands of those affected without having some opportunist jackass taking it all? :sad3:

Its sad but true my Grand-father(RIP) used to say if you want to rule over people, "Arab ro SEER negah dar, Irani ro GOSHNE"

 

[Farbod (ADC)]

Its sad but true my Grand-father(RIP) used to say if you want to rule over people, "Arab ro SEER negah dar, Irani ro GOSHNE"

That is a famous quote made by a British Officer during the 1950s.

 

[IranZamin]

^And sadly, it's the absolute truth.

 

[feyenoord]

Khodamjan,

How do you know it showed the "limit of the regime's might"? We thought the same thing on previous protests and this time they managed to surprise us yet again. Remember we've seen no armored vehicles, tanks, automatic weapons and even true military personnel on streets. You really think they don't have them?

And time is NOT on our side. It's on their side. The longer this takes, the easier they can contain it and steal more and more. Oil is a finite entity and I'm not sure how great of a country Iran would be if it ran out under this regime.

The other concern is, if the movement dies, Iran will become a target for USA and Israel. A war is not what we want to see. A defeated and poor nation is not exactly the ideal we are looking for is it?

Bro, the same oil is a main factor in regime's playing down of the movement. Not just this movement but every other anti-governmental protest under any type of regime is being affected by it. As long as the regime has a free hand in directly taking the oil money, it can also afford to sponsor the forces it needs to suppress anti-regime folks.

I think the movement should focus more on the economy and on strikes to bring down the regime.

At the same time, if you want the armed forces to join the people, there should be continuation of the protests. If there is no continuation, the armed forces can take a breath and renew their force. If there is, there will be deterioration among them and eventually a crack will appear.

 

[Pooya]

That is a famous quote made by a British Officer during the 1950s.

yup ! so true.

 

[shahinc]

frankly a lot of people are too indifferent to care ... ...

I honestly DON'T think that. I did think people, especially our young generation is indifferent before the June election and they really suprised me.

People have been great. They have been brave and they did more than anyone had imagined.

However, the risk are too high when the end goal seems to be so far away and the leadership seems to be so lost.

Think about the guys who already lost their lives, ... Think about those who have already been raped and tortured and ...

If the end result, if the cause to fight for is vague , then people ask themself, is this something that I want to belong to ??

Is this enough reason for me to leave my young wife and little childeren in the house and go out and risk getting arrested and even killed !!

Right now, because of the lack of leadership, the hopes are fading.
Musaavi and Karubi were able to give hope to these people ( something that all the opposition groups failed before them) in June and this is why we saw after 30 years people comming out.

People felt excited and felt there is chanse, there is a worthy cause to be behind and there are leaders who can help them.

But now, it all seems to be slipping away ...

How many of us ( lets be honest) if in Iran, would have risked our lives, the well fare of our kids and ... and gone to the demonstrations while we saw our leaders are not among us or are backing down !!!

 

[reza+]

BT, Pooya et al.... ahmadinejad's group has been sticking to (mainly) two core principles - religious purity and the economy .... the fact is the majority of iranians are both poor/religious... he/his camp have cleverly added "nationalism" to their agenda as well (eg their nuclear stance and so on) ... a lot of people see ahmadinejad as their hero/saviour... the fact is they like his "anti-hero" stance ...they like his rhetorics towards people like rafsanjani .... the fact that he's considered/perceived as "pure" "un-corrupt" and he does still have great support in general

the opposition should attack his election promises ... i told my aunt (who's poor and voted for him for economic reasons mainly coz she thought he'd be giving them like 100k tomans a month or so) ... that in four years time her economic condition will be even worse under ahmadinejad ... his record in office should behighlighted, analysed and attacked...this can be done in the media in iran even now ....

 

[shahinc]

It showed the limit of the regime's might (not their brutality though).
.

Care to explain that ?? Today, I saw a regime, well prepared. I saw a group who studied their last encounters, examined their strength and weakness and came into the day, organized and in control.

We will grow, they will decline. That's inevitable.
.

Why ?? Why will we grow and they decline !!! What are we doing that is allowing us to grow ? There should be a reason for the growth, something positive that we are doing.

We can not just bank on their mistakes and hope that we can grow , because they are making mistake and declining !! We can not be so reactionary and need to take progressive steps forward.

This is not a war they can win but it's one that we can lose. Patience and wisdom is what it takes to do this right.

I think the kep here is to keep people engaged !! Patience and wisdom are god things however, it should be combined with motivation.
No one wins by sitting still and not doing anything.