Reflect your thoughts on 22 Bahman in Iran

Jul 28, 2007
3,866
0
#41
Am I the only one here who thinks we won today?
Below is the analysis of today's events from Massih Alinejad, and I strongly agree with what she's got to say:

پیروز راهپیمایی بیست و دوم بهمن کیست؛ یک بره زخمی یا گرگ وحشی

پنج شنبه، سی و یکمین سالگرد انقلاب اسلامی ایران بود. باید یک راهپمیایی منظم بدون هیچ مزاحمتی در کشور برگزار می شد تا حاکمیت ایران فخر اقتدار خویش را به دنیا می فروخت. اساسا کارکرد راهپیمایی های اینچنینی در نظام سیاسی ایران یعنی تبلیغات برای جهان و نشان دادن جشن و پایکوبی یک ملت راضی از نظام جمهوری اسلامی. اما چه اتفاقی افتاد؟ راهپیمایی در چه شرایطی برگزار شد؟ انتظارات از راهپیمایی چه بود و چه نصیب جنبش و حاکمیت شد؟

هشت ماه از انتخابات ایران گذشته است. نزدیک به صد نفر کشته و زخمی در گوشه بهشت زهرا هستند یا در اوج بیماری و افسردگی به سر می برند. بیش از هزاران نفر، از مردم معمولی گرفته تا فعالان سیاسی زندانی شده اند، پاسپورت ها و سندهای ملکی بیش از هزاران ایرانی در مصادره حاکمیت است. نزدیک به هفتاد روزنامه نگار در زندان هستند بیش از چهارصد روزنامه نگار و فعال اینترنتی ناگزیر به ترک ایران شده اند. ایران به گوآنتاناموی مردم خودش تبدیل شده است.

ایران یک جنبش زخمی و رنج کشیده را در متن دارد و یک حاکمیت خشونت طلب را در راس.

شب قبل از راهپیمایی به بسیاری از یاران باقیمانده جنبش تلفن زده اند و تهدید کرده اند که اگر در حوالی راهپیمایی دیده شوند یا خبررسانی اینترنتی کنند، پرونده شان سنگین تر و زخمی سنگین تر بر پیکره جنبش و اعضایش خواهند نشاند. با همین رویکرد روزنامه نگاران قدیمی را هم یک هفته مانده به راهپیمایی بازداشت کرده اند.

با این همه اما جنبش مثل یک بره زخمی، که گرگی در کمین نشسته او را رصد می کرد، خود را برای راهپیمایی آماده کرد. اعضای اصلی جنبش، مردمی در داخل ایران هستند و اعضای یاری رسان این جنبش، ایرانیان همه جای دنیا هستند که همپای آنان میدان اعتراض را ترک نکرده اند. معترضان و اعضای داخلی جنبش همه چیزشان را در برابر خشونت طلبان در قدرت از دست داده اند، عزیزانشان، امینت جانی و روانی شان، اموال و اسنادشان و گاهی امیدشان را نیز.

حاکمیت، با بی رحمی و وحشی گری تمام، صدای هر مخالفی را با اتکا به خشونت و تجاوز و تعرض و تهدید ساکت کرده است( به زعم خویش) و تقریبا بر چنین حاکمیتی آشکار بود که از این جنبش ضعیف شده هیچ باقی نمانده است و پس از این به آسانی می تواند یک راهپیمایی بزرگ را تدارک ببیند که در آن با حمایت نیروهای امنیتی و نظامی و ایجاد رعب و وحشت کامل ، حاشیه امنی بیابد تا بلاخره بعد از هشت ماه یک راهپیمایی همانند راهپیمایی های سالهای گذشته برگزار کند که در آن نه آدمی کشته شود، نه نماد سبزی به مزاحمت بر آید نه مجبور به استفاده از گاز اشک آور شود که در عیر اینصورت می پنداشت رسوای خاص و عام جهان می شود اگر کماکان مردم معمولی یک کشور را همچنان مقاوم و استوار در خیابان های تهران و در برابر یک دولت متقلب ببینند.

کارکرد اصلی راهپیمایی که تبلیغات برای اقتدار نظام بود باز هم توسط همین جنبش زخمی و بی سلاح مخدوش شد. اگر واقع بین باشیم و سطح انتظارات و توقعات خودمان را از جنبشی که هیچ نیروی نظامی و سازماندهی قوی در یک نظام دیکتاتوری در اختیارش نیست بالا نبریم، حاکمیتی که تا دندان مسلح است و به ابزار خشونت هم مسلح است در راهپیمایی بیست و دوم بهمن به یک بره زخمی باخته است. اینها را برای دلداری و ایجاد امید نمی نویسم.

به همان اندازه که برای جنبش سبز مهم بود تا راهپمیایی بیست و دوم بهمن را برنده باشد به همان اندازه برای حاکمیت هم مهم بود که این راهپیمایی را با دورخیزی که برای اعدام های افراد بی گناه برداشته بود، برنده باشد.

به همان اندازه که اعضای معمولی جنبش سبز، شبهای قبل از راهپیمایی بی خوابی کشیدند و در خلوت نا امن خویش برنامه برای حضور تدارک دیدند، طرفداران حاکمیت و دولت نیز در حاشیه امن خود برنامه داشتند، بی خوابی ها کشیدند، سطل آشغال ها عوض کردند، گاردها مستقر کردند تا مبادا دودی از مراسم جشن سی و یکمین سالگرد انقلابشان بلند شود و رسوای جهان شان کند.

اما چه شد؟ مجبور شدند دوتن از روحانیون و سردمداران سابق قوه مجریه و مقننه کشور ، خاتمی و کروبی را به باد کتک بگیرند تا بتوانند برای نظام اسلامی خودشان جشن بگیرند. مجبور شدند گاز اشک آور و اسلحه را بار دیگر از غلاف بیرون بکشند و مردم را تنبیه و تحقیر کنند و بدین ترتیب جشن شان بوی دود و اشک و زخم به خود گرفت.

آنها از یک راهپمیایی تبلیغاتی چه نتیجه ای گرفتند وقتی با آن همه تدارکات امنیتی و نظامی ، باز هم ناگزیر شدند پشت دوربین های رسمی و دولتی، دندان های خشم خود را به مردم و معترضان نشان دهند تا دنیا باور کند که خنده ها و کلمات درشت و گنده رئس دولت شان در برابر دوربین ها واقعی است. یعنی در چند قدمی خودشان قادر به کنترل خیابان های کشور نبوده اند اما برای جهان شاخ و شانه می کشیدند و پز تجهیزات هسته ای خود را می دادند.

با نصب هزاران بلندگو در سطح شهر باز هم از صدا و سیمای رسمی شان فریاد مرگ بر دیکتاتور مردم به گوش می رسید.

جنبش از یک راهپیمایی تبلیغاتی چه نتیجه ای گرفت؟ به گمانم توقع فتح صدا و سیما و بیت رهبری و سرنگونی احمدی نژاد در یک راهپمیایی که برگزار کننده آن حاکمیت بوده است و نه جنبش معترضان، یک شوخی است که بعضی ها مطرح می کنند. با مردم بی پناهی که به اندازه کافی در طی هشت ماه گذشته بی رحمی دیده اند، بی رحم نباشیم و حاصل حضور شان را با آیه های یاس خود نادیده انگاریم. آنها به اندازه بضاعت خود به نتیجه مطلوب دست یافته اند.

برای من مردمی که شب توسط گرگهای وحشی تهدید می شوند و روز به بیابان نا امن مراسم حکومتی شان پا می گذارند، پیروز هستند. برای من که تقریبا تمامی همکاران و دوستان صمیمی ام را یا در اوین حبس کرده اند و یا در ایران محبوس و ممنوع الخروج ، همین یک پیروزی بزرگ است که به ثانیه نرسیده خبر وحشی گری حاکمیت که لباس اسلامیت از تن روحانیون اش می کند تا سالگرد انقلاب اسلامی اش را جشن بگیرد به گوش دنیا می رسد. برای من همین که تک تک روزنامه نگاران را تهدید و حبس می کنند اما قادر نیستند خبرها را زندانی کنند، این بزرگترین پیروزی است. با خودمان بی رحم نباشیم .

مردم ایران بعد از هشت ماه برای حضور در یک راهپیمایی حقیقی نا امید نبودند و بعد از هشت ماه به خیابان آمده اند کاش برخی از کاربران دنیای مجازی هم با امید همین مردم همراه شوند و تخم نا امیدی در مزرعه سبز و پر امید یک جنبش نپاشند.

ما با دست های خالی بردیم و آنها با دست های پر باختند وقتی باز هم در داخل شاخ و شانه کشیدند و برای خارج لبخندهای مصنوعی حواله کردند تا بگویند هیچ خشونتی در مراسم سالگرد انقلاب اسلامی ایران وجود نداشت در حالی که دنیا دروغ آقایان را از زبان مردم معمولی شهر گزارش داده است.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#42
Raminjan, this is just another naive analysis and twisting of the bitter truth.

Emotional interpretation of the situation is good for keeping motivation alive, but some realism at this point is badly needed.

I don't want to start beating down on Mousavi and co just yet. I also don't want to suggest alternative ways of pissing on the regime.

My frustration stems from people NOT SHOWING UP. Baba, it was a fucking holiday and street presence was LEGAL (even if not entirely safe). Why didn't millions pour on the streets? Irresponsibility is all I can think of.
 

MohammadLin

Bench Warmer
Aug 9, 2004
1,696
0
#43
2. The Greens had a much smaller presence than expected.
This is partly true, but I think there were a lot of green out there today, however, the problem was, many of which were scattered, and perhaps due to the security n basijis couldn't get organized ...


4. Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and co. will not be steering this movement much longer. They have shown little creativity and wisdom in their strategies. Their arrests are also not too improbable.
I don't think many expect leadership/creativity from Karroubi/Khatami but Mousavi yeah, and I agree that he hasn't been creative, but then again, it ain't a simple problem, any potentially "creative" suggestion/actions he makes could cause loss of lives ... put yourself in his position it ain't that easy ... as for wisdom I don't agree, I think he's done pretty well on that department.


6. Greens took a bad blow today thanks to multiple factors. Time to rethink many things including the whole "peaceful" thing.
I don't agree we lost, I don't think that even if we had out-numbered them today, we would have gotten much closer to our goal. The movement MUST keep it's peaceful nature, and I agree that the movement will win at the end, but unfortunately that will come a bit later (maybe another couple of years), when the mess they are creating in the name of economy cuts a bit more down poor people throat ...
 

shahinc

Legionnaire
May 8, 2005
6,745
1
#44
My frustration stems from people NOT SHOWING UP. Baba, it was a fucking holiday and street presence was LEGAL (even if not entirely safe). Why didn't millions pour on the streets? Irresponsibility is all I can think of.
BT Aziz, it is not as simple man. People don't know how many will show up !! the low numbers mean a very dangerous situation and people have families to think of !!! Don't be frustrated with people, they are doing their best.
 

maziar95

Elite Member
Oct 20, 2002
2,285
63
39
Baltimore, MD
#45
People in Iran would need a significant event to rise up and take to the streets in millions like the June election. Otherwise they are too lazy or don't think they would make any difference with their presence on the streets. Nearly all of my moms side of family went to shomal for 22 bahman just like millions of other Iranians. They support the green movement but like most people they don't think their presence on the streets would change anything. They took to the streets after the elections but something significant happened for them to consider protesting on the streets. If the green movement keeps choosing the streets as the avenue to protest than this movement will be finished. The government can easily win the battles on the streets so it's time to come up with creative methods of protesting.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#46
BT Aziz, it is not as simple man. People don't know how many will show up !! the low numbers mean a very dangerous situation and people have families to think of !!! Don't be frustrated with people, they are doing their best.
Shahinjan, are they? You meant to tell me this is the best people could've done today? Then we're really fucked!

They didn't do their best today aziz. They've done much much better before and the expectation was higher this time (very justifiably so). People of Tehran failed today because they lost their discipline after things quieting down for a while. Something that Iranians are known for (lack of discipline)

I wish we had charismatic leaders who could help fix that.
 
May 12, 2007
8,093
11
#47
I think the main idea is that every one think things should go exactly like rev. 79.
People should use new ideas. These thugs uses oil money for training evry day while
ordinary people should think of their ordinary work. My thought is that people should find
the thugs close to the place where they live talk to them beat them simply try to reduce their activity. Strikes is also a good idea.

If we just anounce a date for next demonstration they will be more prepared. I don't think protests will grow any more if we don't change tactic.
 

alborz

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
1,445
0
#48
Victories come in different shapes and forms ... This was the first anniversary of revolution when they had to bus in and limit the international media to one single square ... spend more on security then the actual celebration .. fill streets with security guards and basij and still not be able to keep people quite .. to the point that you could still hear MARG BAR DICTATOR on state run TV... do not make any mistake about it .. today the green was victorious.


As for the reality check .. 7-8 months ago after the first crack down if you told me on 22 Bahman we still talk about the movement I would not believe you. The fact that our brave people showed so much resilience and bravery to the point that after 8 months they were still out there protesting and putting their lives at risk in face of getting beaten up and arrest is a major achievement.


Do not underestimate the green movement, do not doubt its force, do not undermine its reach..the current illegal government does not and you shouldn`t either.


We`ve been already victorious ... long live free Iran.
 
May 12, 2007
8,093
11
#49
Soroush my friend went to a trip all over iran, (he is a photographer) he went to many cities and villages, he said the support AN has OUTSIDE tehran is amazing, he said people pray to him.
30% of populations live in roral area but 70% in large towns. We have seen how things are in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz,....
The problem is that these releiose thugs can do vahshi bazi we can't.
 

shahinc

Legionnaire
May 8, 2005
6,745
1
#50
Shahinjan, are they? You meant to tell me this is the best people could've done today? Then we're really fucked!

They didn't do their best today aziz. They've done much much better before and the expectation was higher this time (very justifiably so). People of Tehran failed today because they lost their discipline after things quieting down for a while. Something that Iranians are known for (lack of discipline)

I wish we had charismatic leaders who could help fix that.
I think we are saying the samething here. Given the lack of activity in the recent weeks, lack of creativity by the leaders, the high intimitation factor by IR, the killing of some prisoners and ... and also the organization of IR today and how well prepared they were, I think this is the best people could have done !!

I bet you many people even came out today, saw how organized is the lebas shakhsi and BAsij and how scatter is the green and decided that it is NOT the day and the risk is too high and went home.
 

Pooya

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 23, 2004
35,398
1,454
Vancouver, Canada
www.IranSportsPress.com
#51
30% of populations live in roral area but 70% in large towns. We have seen how things are in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz,....
The problem is that these releiose thugs can do vahshi bazi we can't.
i know i personally am in no position to say it since i am NOT living there but have you heard of ANY revolution that was "peaceful" if people want to succeed u need to be like them. IR is not going to say "oh shoma naraazi hastin, ok i am leaving" but then again what do i know , judging what people do while holding my coffee and seating behind my monitor.
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#52
How do you know it showed the "limit of the regime's might"? We thought the same thing on previous protests and this time they managed to surprise us yet again. Remember we've seen no armored vehicles, tanks, automatic weapons and even true military personnel on streets. You really think they don't have them?
Care to explain that ?? Today, I saw a regime, well prepared. I saw a group who studied their last encounters, examined their strength and weakness and came into the day, organized and in control.
This is as many supporters as they can ever gather. They took this very seriously, but it is as far as they can go in terms of numbers. Of course, next time they can give guns to every Basiji or Bring tanks into streets, but this is what they can mobilize.

And time is NOT on our side. It's on their side. The longer this takes, the easier they can contain it and steal more and more.
Why will we grow and they decline !!! What are we doing that is allowing us to grow ? There should be a reason for the growth, something positive that we are doing.
Time is on our side because we are on the right side of things. They will decline because it has always been so in history. Dictatorships fade away when they face off with their people. Collapse of a dictatorship is a question of when rather than if. There are exceptions in history, but they are just that: exceptions. We have to be careful not to become one. This regime's fan support base will not grow but shrink as it has shrunk since the election. That is what putting people in jail and beating them up does.
 
May 9, 2004
15,168
179
#54
به نظر من اگر جنبش به این شکل پیش برود در اینده نزدیک
دیگر سبزی رادر تظاهرات رژیم نمی بینیم
زیرا مردم می ایند و می بینند هر بار دها نفر را دستگیر می کنند
تظاهرات کردن در روزهایی که مختص به رژیم است از یک نظر به نفع جنبش است و از نظر دیگر به ضرر انها تمام خواهد شد
از این نظر به نفع جنبش است که جنبش می تواند بدون اینکه مجبور شود اجازه تظاهرات را از دولت بگیرد بیاید و تظاهرات کند
و از ان نظر به ضرر انهاست که تعداد انها بسیار کمتر از طرفداران رژیم است و این باعث می شود که صدایشان را کسی نشنود
به نظر من اگر جنبش سعی کند که یک تظاهرات مستقل را برنامه ریزی کند بهتر است
فکر کنم جنبش در دوراهی گیر کرده است
و کم کم همین تعداد اندک تظاهر کنندگان خود ر ا هم از دست خواهد داد
مگر انکه روش دیگری غیر از تظاهرات کردن در روزهای مختص رژیم را پیش گیرد


متشکرم
 

reza+

Ball Boy
Feb 19, 2004
354
0
#55
DS .... even with 70% living in towns ..the fact is the majority of them are poor/religious...and ahmadinejad's ideas appeal to them a great deal.... i swa it for myself in mashad (the second biggest city in iran) .... ahmadinejad appeared (to me) to have more support there (in the week before the election) ...

as i've said before.. the opposition needs to concentrate on ahmadinejad's election promises in the media inside iran (even if in limited ways) ....i.e fighting corruption, improving people's general level of wealth... helping the poor.... creating jobs ... and many more.... fight him on his own platform....out him for what he really is ...
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#56
Am I the only one here who thinks we won today?


کارکرد اصلی راهپیمایی که تبلیغات برای اقتدار نظام بود باز هم توسط همین جنبش زخمی و بی سلاح مخدوش شد. اگر واقع بین باشیم و سطح انتظارات و توقعات خودمان را از جنبشی که هیچ نیروی نظامی و سازماندهی قوی در یک نظام دیکتاتوری در اختیارش نیست بالا نبریم، حاکمیتی که تا دندان مسلح است و به ابزار خشونت هم مسلح است در راهپیمایی بیست و دوم بهمن به یک بره زخمی باخته است. اینها را برای دلداری و ایجاد امید نمی نویسم.

به همان اندازه که برای جنبش سبز مهم بود تا راهپمیایی بیست و دوم بهمن را برنده باشد به همان اندازه برای حاکمیت هم مهم بود که این راهپیمایی را با دورخیزی که برای اعدام های افراد بی گناه برداشته بود، برنده باشد.

به همان اندازه که اعضای معمولی جنبش سبز، شبهای قبل از راهپیمایی بی خوابی کشیدند و در خلوت نا امن خویش برنامه برای حضور تدارک دیدند، طرفداران حاکمیت و دولت نیز در حاشیه امن خود برنامه داشتند، بی خوابی ها کشیدند، سطل آشغال ها عوض کردند، گاردها مستقر کردند تا مبادا دودی از مراسم جشن سی و یکمین سالگرد انقلابشان بلند شود و رسوای جهان شان کند.
No you're NOT alone. I also think it was a victory. It could have been more pronounced but as someone said victory comes in different shapes. Failure is if people become disillusioned like they did with the reform movement. Today there was absolutely no indication of that happening inside Iran. Outside Iran, it's a different story.

And Afarin bar Masih Alinejad, as usual.
 

Zob Ahan

Elite Member
Feb 4, 2005
17,481
2,233
#57
I think the expectations were too high. Just go back and see BTs poll you will see the number of people marking the option that said the regime will fall in a few days after 22 Bahman. Those are very unrealistic expectations. When you have expectations that are not realistic you will be disappointed. This movement was not created in one day and will not end in one day. I talked to some friends in Isfahan a few minutes ago and they were saying that from early morning the lebas shakhsi lat va loot were everywhere since the early hours of the morning wielding their chains on motorcycles. Despite such a scene, a good nimber of greens turned up but were scattered and unorganized and alot of them were arrested and beaten. As I have always said the labor/poorer classes need to join this movement to make it successful and that has not happened yet. With the econonomy taking its toll on those classes it is inevitable that it will happen. One last thing is that we have always been surprised by the events in Iran and we all know how unpredictable they are. Just when it is the least expected the IR will collapse. Lets just hope that it is as soon as possible and with no bloodshed.
 

bardia

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
1,238
1
#58
A direct reply to me from a very active member of Jonbesh:

بردیا عزیز ، دل قویدار که سحر نزدیک است ، توقع زیاد از این حرکت مردمی جز سرخوردگی چیزی ندارد.ما امروز برای پیروزی به میدان نرفته بودیم ما امروز رفتیم که شیرینی آنها را زهر کنیم که کردیم ،سراسر تاریخ این سرزمین استبداد زده پر است از حوادث غمبار ،ما اکنون تاوان پشت کردن به امیر کبیر ها و مصدق ها و بازرگان ها و منتظری ها ...را میدهیم .رهبری بر مسند کورش کبیر تکیه زده که نه بشر است نه از حق چیزی می داند
 

Niloufar

Football Legend
Oct 19, 2002
29,626
23
#59
very enjoyable and insightful thread and posts guys. thanks for ur inputs.:)

u know today, was a very important day for our ppl and country.. TO LEARN A LESSON if you will..to RETHINK GREEN MOVEMENT's STRATEGY and to realize that Karoubi, Mousavi, Khatami, Kadivar, Sazgara,x,y ARE SIMPLY NOT DEVOTED AND PATRIOTIC AS THE PEOPLE(Green movement) to sacrifice their life and endanger their own family's security too Just to Get rid of Dictatorship..

U know when I attended Kadivar's speech here few days ago, I realized WHAT A HYPOCRITE All Roohaniyoon-ex IR officials are..no matter where they live(kadivar,Sazgara) how they portray themselves(khatami, mousavi) and how blunt they sound(Karoubi, Ardebili,etc)..

dont want to generalize particular group or something but seems to me that current SO CALLED GREEN MOVEMENT 'Leaders'(Karoubi,Mousavi, khatami, Kadivar,etc) ARE IN IT SO FAR BC THERE IS SOME BENEFIT for them to be in the game right now..be it, getting hidden support/negotation with USA, EU against AN, or be it for banking on ACQUIRING POWER step by step from current IR Govt, get rid of the govt, so our ppl be all happy, and then a "transitional govt"(like Bazargan team) take over and then these so called "opposition Roohaniyoon" hijack our ppl's movement and transition govt and take power of Iran, yet AGAIN through Religious Theocracy, just with a more reformist face..

I really think, we, as Iranians living outside Iran, play the most imp role here, putting pressure on our resident country's govts to Stop negotiating and supporting and doing business with IR and economically hurt them the most, then try to plan a massive "national strike" or some sort, to hurt IR's Oil Revenue and other means of income, so bankrupt them basically..

but seems like "peaceful demonstration" here and there just doesnt cut it for our ppl to get their rights back..:(
 
Last edited:
May 12, 2007
8,093
11
#60
i know i personally am in no position to say it since i am NOT living there but have you heard of ANY revolution that was "peaceful" if people want to succeed u need to be like them. IR is not going to say "oh shoma naraazi hastin, ok i am leaving" but then again what do i know , judging what people do while holding my coffee and seating behind my monitor.
These are true assertions but didn't I say these peacfull demo goes nowhere. My points was we are majority as opposed to your friends claim.
Even IR was so popular in roral areas they are not the majority.