دلار شد ۲۴۰۰ تومان

Zob Ahan

Elite Member
Feb 4, 2005
17,481
2,233
Oh yeah, this is a completely useless piece of news for people who are not converting to dollars and is not going to make any difference in the price of necessities, because those are still imported with official government rates. I think the government may be flooding the black market with some extra dollars, in lieu of the spin they put on the news, to create the illusion that the Rial will go back up. This will take pressure off their foreign reserves, because people will stop buying dollars or better yet, start selling what they bought earlier. Judging by what you wrote Soroosh joon, I think the strategy has worked - at least for now.
The peoples buying dollars is a very tiny fraction of the equation. Its impact on the price is negligble.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
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I didn't mean just individuals Siavash jaan. Without a doubt all importers, all manufacturers that use imported raw materials or parts, and anyone that deals with foreign entities for services, would be converting a lot of money into dollars in a situation where the currency is plunging, anticipating that it would cost them more a few months down the road to get the same commodity, part or service. I can't remember the last estimate of how much USD people were hoarding, but I think it worked out to around $200 USD per person or around $15 billion USD in November. If that number is right, it's more than 20% of Iran's total foreign reserves (all currencies) and gold!!! BTW, total foreign reserves dropped by a almost 1/3 last year, so the government really can't afford another major run on USD.
 

Ardesheer

Bench Warmer
Jun 30, 2005
1,580
1
If this pull back is because of the way IR is spinning the nuclear negotiations as being successful, it's going to be very temporary because I'm seeing the exact opposite reaction from foreign politicians and media. Amano (IAEA) told the board earlier today that he was pressing for access to Parchin. Natanyahu, being frustrated with the talks in Kazakhstan also reiterated that military intervention is the only way to stop Iran's nuclear program and Biden said Obama is "not bluffing" on stopping Iran's nuclear program just a few hours ago. That's all in addition to Kerry's visit to the Arab Gulf nations this week where the main focus is on Iran and Syria. All that seems to point at heightened threats of military intervention, so we can expect another major crash into the 4000 region within the next few weeks, if not days.
Totally agree with that. While IRI is advertising that there has been some progress, the reaction from all other fronts is completely the opposite.
 

Fat_Ali2006

Bench Warmer
Apr 24, 2006
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In addition, from the high of 3800 now lets say 3300 some would say wow its a great price. You know the saying, "Marg nakon ke be tabb razie" or something like that.:looti::looti:
 

Bache Tehroon

Elite Member
Oct 16, 2002
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I just talked to Iran, dollar is 3000 toman and as all of u said already, they say in Iran wow it's great, lol
Horrible horrible economic attitude. They have no foresight (the majority). Heck, they don't even have a decent hindsight! Those who posses even a little bit of vision/advantage can easily exploit the rest.

I realize it's almost the same everywhere on the globe, but in Iran's case it's amazing that the general population simply doesn't learn from readily available data and fresh in memory fuck ups of the past.

For an American person to do some simple trend-analysis, there are so many details to consider and so many years of fluctuations to go over that it requires a lot of resources, but for an Iranian to do the same kind of trend prediction, it takes a simple recalling of the events of the past decade. Yet...
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
0
United States
I just talked to Iran, dollar is 3000 toman and as all of u said already, they say in Iran wow it's great, lol
I doubt any of them has actually bought dollars. They are just repeating what they hear. What happens when the market gets real volatile, either going down or up, nobody sells. So you hear all these quotes but you can't get them.
 

Zob Ahan

Elite Member
Feb 4, 2005
17,481
2,233
I doubt any of them has actually bought dollars. They are just repeating what they hear. What happens when the market gets real volatile, either going down or up, nobody sells. So you hear all these quotes but you can't get them.
Agreed. No Sarraf will sell their $$ for 3000 until the market settles.
 

Bache Tehroon

Elite Member
Oct 16, 2002
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Agreed. No Sarraf will sell their $$ for 3000 until the market settles.
Well, not exactly. They will sell, but at a slightly higher rate than advertised. My relative went to buy more dollars and while the price was 3100 as he walked the market, he only managed to buy it at 3250.

So you can be sure you will find dollars at about 5-6% above the market rate.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
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Horrible horrible economic attitude. They have no foresight (the majority). Heck, they don't even have a decent hindsight!
Those who posses even a little bit of vision/advantage can easily exploit the rest.
ROFL @ no foresight & hindsight! :) And ditto to the 2nd part.

That foresight and hindsight thing was GOLD. What I've noticed, at least with the older generations (those in their 60's and 70's), is exactly what you said, no foresight. But you know here we say hindsight is 20/20, right? I wish they actually understood that part at least and had 20/20 hindsight to learn something going forward. Because in retrospect, they always say they had the foresight that they didn't have (man midonestam in tori mishe when they said the exact opposite), so don't need to have hindsight which means no lessons learnt and still no foresight going forward! I lose both hindsight and foresight just thinking about that!
:looti:
 

Zob Ahan

Elite Member
Feb 4, 2005
17,481
2,233
Well, not exactly. They will sell, but at a slightly higher rate than advertised. My relative went to buy more dollars and while the price was 3100 as he walked the market, he only managed to buy it at 3250.

So you can be sure you will find dollars at about 5-6% above the market rate.
Thats exactly what I meant.
 
Jun 9, 2004
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^^^ And they're closed today due to market instability/fluctuation! Latest rate was 3697 (pretty much 3700) if I'm reading it correctly, which is even worse than when this roller coaster ride started.
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
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Does the forum allow to quote yourself?

I doubt any of them has actually bought dollars. They are just repeating what they hear. What happens when the market gets real volatile, either going down or up, nobody sells. So you hear all these quotes but you can't get them.
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
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It looks like the government's strategy of temporarily flooding the black market with USD's to induce selling has failed BIG time. Whatever extra liquidity they added in the market was gobbled up in a matter of two days which means they don't even have the type of reserves, or will, to keep the price low for longer periods. Based on that, tt looks like the 5000 estimate from their own people is very realistic in the next few months, if not weeks. Some estimates of inflation are as high as 60%, with the official number @ 30%, which means best case scenario (for the Rial), it should be losing 2.5% of its value per month or as much as 5% with the higher inflation value. That's roughly 100 to 200 Tomans per month!!!
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
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Wasn't Turkey in a similar situation a few years back? They were paying exorbitant interest on deposits but their currency was devalued even faster. How did they fix it?
 
Jun 9, 2004
13,753
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You have to fix the underlying economy, can't just keep printing money to offset high prices because that's just going to increase inflation and with a stagnant economy, you're going to be in a situation of stagflation which is a NO NO for economists - but then again, they're just donkeys anyway and what do they know?! ;)