Green Movement is about to be tested

Flint

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Jan 28, 2006
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Remember The government will fall or meet peoples demands only if a large part of Basij, Sepah stop supporting the government.
Yes, but why should they do that? They got everything they need. What do Sabzha have to offer? They have to reach a point when staying costs them more than leaving. I don't see that happening now. That's how Mubarak left, that's how Shah left and that's how Gaddafi might leave.
 

ball_hugger

Bench Warmer
Feb 11, 2005
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I think its time to show Iranians in Iran what they can have instead of the Islamic Republic.. until now these protest are nothing more than an emotional outburst against a dictatorship. They dont have a goal, there is no end game, there is no Solid outcome that people from all walks of life can come to feel understand and look forward too! unfortunately people in iran dont have the ability to understand what a truely free and open society can deliver to them. Also there is alot of fear about what the transition period between the current regime and free elections will look like, will they be safe, will the country disintegrate, will there be a civil war, whos is going to oversee the election, will the MKO take over, will we be attacked by a foreign force...etc... etc...

There needs to be a program that daily or weekly educates the people about a democratic system and its benefits, a program that "tells" them what they should demand when going to the streets and that the only way to get it might be to become a martyr at times, a program that assures people about the outcome and shows them the way step by step... This non violent pussy stuff like ohh dont get cought or disperse than regroup, or if you get violent it will give them an excuse to use more force.. well if you say that than it means you are easily intimidated and if you are easily intimidated you have no business asking for a revolution against these animals!

No government is overthrown without some blood especially a government that thinks its got god on its side and its okay to kill because of it. No I am not sitting here saying Lengesh kon but its just the truth if people want to overthrow the government.
 
May 12, 2007
8,093
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What part should I not have believed?
I don't think basijis have been so many that they have outnumbered people every where. They also say the same in VOA report. It is hard to believe.
I think they have moved in different areas very fast so it has looked like they are everywhere.
 
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May 12, 2007
8,093
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Yes, but why should they do that? They got everything they need. What do Sabzha have to offer? They have to reach a point when staying costs them more than leaving. I don't see that happening now. That's how Mubarak left, that's how Shah left and that's how Gaddafi might leave.
Thank you again. Therefore people should fight them so it cost more to stay than leave! Identify them. Find their house and make it more costly to sell their countrymen.
 
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parham79

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Dec 5, 2009
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Speaking to family in Tehran today the turnout was huge. The problem is the thugs dont let people ws in more the 2 or 3 in a group.Also the bastards were wearing knuckle busters when attacking people. Near pole college was seriouse very voilent clashes. If people could connect then it will be a tsunami that can wash away the regimes thugs away within a couple of days
 
Aug 27, 2005
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Band e 209
I think its time to show Iranians in Iran what they can have instead of the Islamic Republic.. until now these protest are nothing more than an emotional outburst against a dictatorship. They dont have a goal, there is no end game, there is no Solid outcome that people from all walks of life can come to feel understand and look forward too! unfortunately people in iran dont have the ability to understand what a truely free and open society can deliver to them. Also there is alot of fear about what the transition period between the current regime and free elections will look like, will they be safe, will the country disintegrate, will there be a civil war, whos is going to oversee the election, will the MKO take over, will we be attacked by a foreign force...etc... etc...

There needs to be a program that daily or weekly educates the people about a democratic system and its benefits, a program that "tells" them what they should demand when going to the streets and that the only way to get it might be to become a martyr at times, a program that assures people about the outcome and shows them the way step by step... This non violent pussy stuff like ohh dont get cought or disperse than regroup, or if you get violent it will give them an excuse to use more force.. well if you say that than it means you are easily intimidated and if you are easily intimidated you have no business asking for a revolution against these animals!

No government is overthrown without some blood
especially a government that thinks its got god on its side and its okay to kill because of it. No I am not sitting here saying Lengesh kon but its just the truth if people want to overthrow the government.
Incorrect!

India
Chile
Argentina
Portugal
Poland
USSR
Czechoslovakia
Singing revolution of all 3 Baltic States
Romania
Philippine
Tunisia

On other hand consequence of entire 20th century violent revolutions was nothing but far worse dictatorship and tyranny than what people fought to eradicate. Even 1978 Iranian revolution started as nonviolent but the last 2,3 months a mysterious slogan appeared among people saying "waay beh roozi keh mosallah shaveem" and unfortunately they did get mosallah, radicalized and started killing each other, low level gov. officials and who ever they had some personal dispute with in the past.
Plan was not for 100s of 1000s of street thugs to grab G3s and AK-47s, start roaming the streets and harass any one and every one who looked or acted noncompliance.

Strict discipline wins revolution not blood.
 
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Abedzaadeh

IPL Player
Jan 23, 2003
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I watched it. Abedin sounds like a sandiskhor. who is he?
Don't know if he is a sandiskhor but definitely an AN admirer...before 2009 he repeatedly labelled him as a nationalist/populist/political street fighter etc...

Cant find any of his post 2009 articles but he uses the notion that claims of rigging are unproven (like marandi). He also participated in BBCs "porsesh & pasokh" last may/june and made controversial comments at the end (that also seems offline!). He also wrote an article predicting Rafi's demise (which might be true now) - but yet in ofogh he said Irans internal politics is not his speciality!
 
Jun 18, 2005
10,889
5
The gas and electricity bills from after the Hadaf Mandi Yaraneh has been mailed to people. The prices are reportedly very outrageous and they pretty much double the amount of yaraneh that was handed out originally. Maybe this is going to wake up some people.
 

kambujiyeh

IPL Player
Oct 18, 2002
2,662
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I too don't see any real goals that are outlined by the demonstrations. So far most of the chants have been against the Cholagh Dast and calling for the release of the political prisoners. But there has to be more meat to this in order to gather the masses. Maybe I am missing it, but I really dont see a cohesive and organized movement that has a final goal.
 
Jun 7, 2004
3,196
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Incorrect!

India
Chile
Argentina
Portugal
Poland
USSR
Czechoslovakia
Singing revolution of all 3 Baltic States
Romania
Philippine
Tunisia

On other hand consequence of entire 20th century violent revolutions was nothing but far worse dictatorship and tyranny than what people fought to eradicate. Even 1978 Iranian revolution started as nonviolent but the last 2,3 months a mysterious slogan appeared among people saying "waay beh roozi keh mosallah shaveem" and unfortunately they did get mosallah, radicalized and started killing each other, low level gov. officials and who ever they had some personal dispute with in the past.
Plan was not for 100s of 1000s of street thugs to grab G3s and AK-47s, start roaming the streets and harass any one and every one who looked or acted noncompliance.

Strict discipline wins revolution not blood.
I am afraid you are not correct motori jaan. Strict discipline is necessary but not sufficient. There are seven pillars to power: people, moral ground, discipline, money, guns, foreign help, and tyranny of the status quo. Every single of these must be attended to and exploited. In Iran's case, what is clear is that there is over a 99% advantage in guns for the IR and an overwhelming advantage in money, due to oil. Further, the regime has shown to have decent discipline in maintaining power, certainly hugely better than the pathetic dictators in Arab countries, because power is what they worship, a legacy inherited from Khomeini. Obviously the tyranny of status quo is on their side. As a result the odds are difficult to overcome for Iranians.

Guns are needed, so is foreign help. On the latter, when Iranians, in particular Iranian intellectuals talk about "not needing foreign help," it shows just how ignorant they are in matters pertaining to society. In essentially all successful revolution you've had foreign help. Hell, in the greatest and most successful revolution of all time, the American revolution, if it weren't for foreign help, Americans would still have the picture of the Queen on their money.

When you consider nonviolent movements that succeeded you have to weigh their situation against those seven pillars vs. Iran's situation. For example, in India's case, the British did not have the money advantage that IR has. The people advantage of Indians vs. the British was literally a 10,000 times greater than Iranians vs IR. Or in the case of South Africa, there was a huge foreign help without which the South African majority would stand no chance.
 
Feb 17, 2009
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The final goal should always be a civil and secular government. It can even reform out of the current system
We don't need to be after shah, mko (god forbid), or any such groups.
say bye bye to iranian culture and its values when we get a secular government.
the bastard islamists already ruined our great culture and history with their pro arab and pan islamic ideology. last thing we need is to become secular aka germany style.
everyday im praying for a sudden appearance of a second reza shah in iran.
 

parham79

Bench Warmer
Dec 5, 2009
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The final goal should always be a civil and secular government. It can even reform out of the current system
We don't need to be after shah, mko (god forbid), or any such groups.
lol are you one of those people who still believes this system can be reformed?. Even former reformers like tajzadeh(whom stated we should have kept the shah) abdullah Nouri, Abtahi, Abbas Abdi and Mohsen Sazgara have all stated this regime will never be reformed because of it's structure.The only soloution left is to change the constitution.

Also dont compare the Shah with MKO. The Pahlavis were million times better then MKO and IR
 

IranZamin

IPL Player
Feb 17, 2006
3,367
2
Guns are needed, so is foreign help. On the latter, when Iranians, in particular Iranian intellectuals talk about "not needing foreign help," it shows just how ignorant they are in matters pertaining to society. In essentially all successful revolution you've had foreign help. Hell, in the greatest and most successful revolution of all time, the American revolution, if it weren't for foreign help, Americans would still have the picture of the Queen on their money.

When you consider nonviolent movements that succeeded you have to weigh their situation against those seven pillars vs. Iran's situation. For example, in India's case, the British did not have the money advantage that IR has. The people advantage of Indians vs. the British was literally a 10,000 times greater than Iranians vs IR. Or in the case of South Africa, there was a huge foreign help without which the South African majority would stand no chance.
Well said.

Just to add, in the case of India, not only did the Brits not have IR's money advantage, they were actually bankrupt at the end of WWII (and in fact had to be rescued from insolvency with a 2.5 billion dollar loan from Truman). That had as much to do with India's independence in 1947 as any effort on Gandhi's part.
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
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+2 FP.

Let me add that on Motori's list, you have to remove entire Eastern Block because their government collapsed after the Soviets. No need for revolution there. One other constant in all this is that the only dictators you can remove with little bloodshed are American allies. They will go. Shah, Pinochet, Marcus, Mubarak. The hard core ones such as Saddam, Assad, Qaddafi and certainly IR will not go unless they are dragged out of their residences, feet first.
 
Aug 27, 2005
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Band e 209
+2 FP.

Let me add that on Motori's list, you have to remove entire Eastern Block because their government collapsed after the Soviets. No need for revolution there. One other constant in all this is that the only dictators you can remove with little bloodshed are American allies. They will go. Shah, Pinochet, Marcus, Mubarak. The hard core ones such as Saddam, Assad, Qaddafi and certainly IR will not go unless they are dragged out of their residences, feet first.
Flint Sir!
Entire Eastern Europe block went poooof before the collapse of USSR in 1991. Poland started the solidarity movement in 1980.
You say "The only dictators you can remove with little bloodshed are American allies" and I give you South Africa.

I still don't believe "Guns" are the "only" solution for Iran. Guns are only effective when "2" fronts are lined up and marching against each other, this principle does not apply to today Iran when there are more than 10 factions lined up against each other and no one knows which is the most fierce enemy against who.

I never said Guns are not necessary I'm just saying "not today" or at least all other options are exhausted which we have not ran out of all yet.
 

Bache Tehroon

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Oct 16, 2002
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Flint Sir!
Entire Eastern Europe block went poooof before the collapse of USSR in 1991. Poland started the solidarity movement in 1980.
You say "The only dictators you can remove with little bloodshed are American allies" and I give you South Africa.

I still don't believe "Guns" are the "only" solution for Iran. Guns are only effective when "2" fronts are lined up and marching against each other, this principle does not apply to today Iran when there are more than 10 factions lined up against each other and no one knows which is the most fierce enemy against who.

I never said Guns are not necessary I'm just saying "not today" or at least all other options are exhausted which we have not ran out of all yet.
Rasouljan,

You know better than anyone that "Guns" don't equal "shootings". Guns are produced and purchased not for their killing stats, but for their effective fear inflicting capabilities. Out of so many non-military weapons that are produced seldom any of them end up causing bodily harm.

A Basiji cunt who has no human left in him will not settle down until fear looks him in the eye. How do you propose this fear should come about? Keep in mind, a very little percentage of the population is willing to participate in radical acts even as simple as throwing a rock at a Basiji on a motorbike.

A minimum level of fear is required for these thugs to contain themselves, otherwise they will remain on the offensive for good. There's nothing to keep them from murdering the rest of the nation in the name of Islam. NOTHING. I'm afraid too many people undermine the cocksuckerness of these cunts. I grew up with them. They are bred to be anti-human from an early age. What do you think should be done to contain them right now? It's been a question for me since grade 6.
 
May 12, 2007
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I was reading the first pages of Irans newspapers. It seems like people have started to insult familes of the thugs.
They talk about hotke hormat.
 

Behrooz_C

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2005
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lol are you one of those people who still believes this system can be reformed?. Even former reformers like tajzadeh(whom stated we should have kept the shah) abdullah Nouri, Abtahi, Abbas Abdi and Mohsen Sazgara have all stated this regime will never be reformed because of it's structure.The only soloution left is to change the constitution.

Also dont compare the Shah with MKO. The Pahlavis were million times better then MKO and IR
Where do you get the idea that I am comparing Shah with MKO. I gave examples of what Iranians support. That's all. Read again what I wrote.

I agree this regime is not reformable. But I believe it is possible that their power base gets up and leaves the way it happened in Egypt and may happen in Libya.
If that happens, we shouldn't be looking for a leader or another figurehead, running the risk of another dictator. We should be looking to form a civil society run by the people.