AhmandNijad will serve full term and will be put into position again. Note that I said put into position not elected as we all know it is fixed. There is no way that IR will not elect him. That will be a blow to their system and khamanie has to answer to the Baijis himself. And no, the Iranian goverment is pretty secure for next few decades. Basijis are strong, brutal, and people are in no mood to get killed to change the system. And US will not do anything there. The need an enemy and iran fuels that.
There would be no blow to IRI if they have to replace Ahmadinejad with somebody else next term. AN is a pawn, a mere nobody. There are many in the hardline faction who could replace him. That is, of course, if external pressures do not result in a collapse or total isolation of Iran over the next few years.
As a matter of fact, from what we have seen of the clerics' skillful psychological handling of Iranian nation over the past 20 years, it is quite possible that they would come up with yet another fancy candidate 4 years down the road to make the election more exciting and keep the people in suspense. A re-discovered Qalibaf with reformist slogans perhaps? of course all depends on the dynamics of the situation at that time.
So far president AN has shown no specific qualities that would impress the ruling power centres for his second term. Any loyal idiot could have performed the same way or better. and he still has not managed to create a real power base for himself. Sepah/Bassij have many others in their ranks who might think they deserve presidency more than AN. Of course he still has a long time to consolidate support for himself.
As a matter of fact, from what we have seen of the clerics' skillful psychological handling of Iranian nation over the past 20 years, it is quite possible that they would come up with yet another fancy candidate 4 years down the road to make the election more exciting and keep the people in suspense. A re-discovered Qalibaf with reformist slogans perhaps? of course all depends on the dynamics of the situation at that time.
So far president AN has shown no specific qualities that would impress the ruling power centres for his second term. Any loyal idiot could have performed the same way or better. and he still has not managed to create a real power base for himself. Sepah/Bassij have many others in their ranks who might think they deserve presidency more than AN. Of course he still has a long time to consolidate support for himself.
Observing what Khamenei has been doing ever since AN's coronation I see a bit of concern on his part. AN's track record in past 5 month indicates a great deal of confusion and aimless strategies toward achieving a big NOTHING!! he will not last the full term.
Vali Fagheeh has to do something to justify his presence so I think he is already thinking about replacement and obviously going around Sepah and or Basij will be a daunting challenge but AL will find the means.
Note to Friends with 2 full term prediction: Regarding AN administration doctrine do you think there will be a Country remaining for 8 years for him to rule?
Vali Fagheeh has to do something to justify his presence so I think he is already thinking about replacement and obviously going around Sepah and or Basij will be a daunting challenge but AL will find the means.
Note to Friends with 2 full term prediction: Regarding AN administration doctrine do you think there will be a Country remaining for 8 years for him to rule?
Well said motori jaan.tackman you are one brave dude.
My predication is not wishfull thinking aziz.is halic republic could have been in toilet hole of history 10-15 years ago.the only two reasons this crap system is still breathing were:
1)iranian opposition was even crapier than IR.
2)despite the constant internal power struggle IR had enough sense to at least let experts have a great influence over decision makings.IR no longer enjoy these benfits to its existance.AT THE TIME WHEN INTERNAL/EXTERNAL PRESSURES REACH ITS ALL TIME HIGH,THE GENIOUS AN IS AT THE HELM OF IR.DO YOU SEE ANY FUTURE FOR AN OR IRI?if you do,please send me those quality stuff that you are smoking ASP.
My predication is not wishfull thinking aziz.is halic republic could have been in toilet hole of history 10-15 years ago.the only two reasons this crap system is still breathing were:
1)iranian opposition was even crapier than IR.
2)despite the constant internal power struggle IR had enough sense to at least let experts have a great influence over decision makings.IR no longer enjoy these benfits to its existance.AT THE TIME WHEN INTERNAL/EXTERNAL PRESSURES REACH ITS ALL TIME HIGH,THE GENIOUS AN IS AT THE HELM OF IR.DO YOU SEE ANY FUTURE FOR AN OR IRI?if you do,please send me those quality stuff that you are smoking ASP.
Cyrus Jaan,
I'm not that wishful to say IRI will get toppled within next 8 years what I'm saying is The mullahs with a bit of intelligence (comparatively speaking) like Khamenei or Raf are closely monitoring AN's performance and so far it is obvious it doesn't look that promising for instance after 5 month he is still incapable of having a complete Cabinet of Ministers and I don't think Khamenei approves AN's performance and may be that is why he hasn't said a word in support of AN's recent comments about Israel.
One reason would be your own point of view about Iranian opposition. Promises for better economy was the primary reason for so many underprivileged Iranians to elect him at the first place and none have seen any thing close to better economy like the one they saw during Khatami presidency. None of those mullahs want to see Iran fall into internal and or external chaos and watch all those once supporters join the opposition. There must always BE a sovereign Iran for them to rule
Until we see a Magical overnight change in AN doctrine just to resemble something like Khatami or even close, my prediction is : He is doomed and will be replaced.
I'm not that wishful to say IRI will get toppled within next 8 years what I'm saying is The mullahs with a bit of intelligence (comparatively speaking) like Khamenei or Raf are closely monitoring AN's performance and so far it is obvious it doesn't look that promising for instance after 5 month he is still incapable of having a complete Cabinet of Ministers and I don't think Khamenei approves AN's performance and may be that is why he hasn't said a word in support of AN's recent comments about Israel.
One reason would be your own point of view about Iranian opposition. Promises for better economy was the primary reason for so many underprivileged Iranians to elect him at the first place and none have seen any thing close to better economy like the one they saw during Khatami presidency. None of those mullahs want to see Iran fall into internal and or external chaos and watch all those once supporters join the opposition. There must always BE a sovereign Iran for them to rule
Until we see a Magical overnight change in AN doctrine just to resemble something like Khatami or even close, my prediction is : He is doomed and will be replaced.
fole aziz
our opposition is nowhere near being good but it is far more mature than say 5 years ago.far less selfish and far more desiplined and organized.MKO and stalinist lefties are almost wiped out.the others took notice of being seprate from average ali dow.they are almost ready to took over after sudden change/collapse of the regime.WHAT HAPPENED IN ROMANIA,CZEC,YOUGSLAVIA,POLAND,UKRAINE,GEORGIA...CAN HAPPEN INIRAN TOO AND VERY EASY.
our opposition is nowhere near being good but it is far more mature than say 5 years ago.far less selfish and far more desiplined and organized.MKO and stalinist lefties are almost wiped out.the others took notice of being seprate from average ali dow.they are almost ready to took over after sudden change/collapse of the regime.WHAT HAPPENED IN ROMANIA,CZEC,YOUGSLAVIA,POLAND,UKRAINE,GEORGIA...CAN HAPPEN INIRAN TOO AND VERY EASY.