I don't understand why are Greens being so slow

[DireStraits]

I think both bulhugger and Pooya have greate points. It is a time when all oppositions groups align and lead the movement. I know Karubi & Mosavi
have done a good job so far but they may be in hand of the government.

 

[parham79]

I think lack of a clear goal is probably our biggest problem.. things are just not clear enough for alot of people to make the jump! Moussavi and karroubi want to or act like they want to reform the regime and there is no other leader or some entity that is setting the goals for everyone and that plus the bad experience with the 1979 revolution has kept most people on the sidelines.

If all opposition groups could unite and set a clear goal of free elections under U.N. supervision and a new constitution to be formed by the elected government than we could talk some business... until than people are not going to be willing to go die for the unknown.

Exactlywhat i said earlier. An interm goverment till free anfair elections must be made. Once the people inside know what they are fighting for, the 5 million thugs stand no chance and millions will join in.

 

[DireStraits]

So you're ok seeing people being shot in protests that are not even remotely going to threaten he regimes hold? It's time or a direction a soloution. People should not just lose their lives in vaine.Every Iranian is a treseaure and every death is a national tragedy.

I would love to see Dr Mousavi call for mass strikes and million man marches in the big cities. I would love to see a interm goverment being porposed and formed so our people have a idea whats next.If those things happen, millions will join the movement.

Strike is not effective. IRI will have enought personals to run main business like oil & gas industery.
Look what I say is your punishment when you walk in street and protest is as high as you act to steel a gun from a police station. Then chose one you think
is more effective. I also say identify the thugs and show them a number.

 

[Niloufar]

Nilo jan, In Iran before you go to demonstration you should write your vasyatname. Either don't go or go for fight.


Exactly. You remember we to discussed this issue last year.

hehe yeah remember our discussion DS jan! opinions change over time I guess! well I love my country..I want to be able to go there and be among my compatriots for abit at least..+ this time I had more imp reason to go..to attend my grandfather's funeral services and it was on exactly the same date as 25 Bahman.

In my opinion the movement needs to get beyond Student and the young who are prominent in these demonstrations. This is very much like the time in late 70's when the movement was kick started by student and then spread to the masses. With the sudden rise of costs in Iran and the fact that so many people have lost government subsidies, we will soon see the regular Joes that will take the street. When we could mass that sort of deep support, then the fight might take on a different look. For now, it is easier for the government forces to clamp down on the demonstrations. When the poor people start to rise (because they have no other option) then the shit will hit the fan.


I have said for many moons that these tugs will not have sympathy or care about who they beat or kill. With these animals there is no debating or talking. But the students are not wired to fight these tugs and are badly outgunned.

Well said Kambiz jan. When labour movements and angry hungry ppl join the movement, thats when change may come easier/faster.
But IR is very smart too. for Eid, again they are handing out 40,000 Toman to each citizen to overcome challenges of subsidies. I was talking to few ppl and they were saying for a family of 5-6 ppl, this amount adds up and keeps them happy for a while.

Also I noticed bc of higher gas prices therefore higher taxi fees now, many ppl are using their own cars and work as cab drivers. looks like India, but low-income ppl for now survive in this way.
our ppl have proved to be great "survivors" in any condition..so govt's really bad calculation may lead to sudden spark by labour movements and low-income ppl's uprising.

I do not think there are even 50,000 living in Iran willing to die for the regime or vice versa. Those Basiji guys if they see things are spiraling out of control will melt into the population and will open a liquor store or a strip club joint. This regime does not necessarily have a religious backing to it anymore.

I just do not think there are enough people willing to actually die for this regime to change. It is going to take 500-1000 heroes to get it done. Yes, I understand people go out on the street to protest but they are not walking out there to die or get arrested, so they do not confront the basijis and they are very cautious.

Azize man, Sina, anyone who attends protests in Iran since last year, is giving up on his/her life already. bc there is higher than %50 risk of getting arrested-killed. + basij is not recognizable as you think..they have no facial hair, are young, wear trendy clothes, get scattered among ppl in protests and then all of a sudden they attack protesters and beat them up. and in fact in 25 Bahman, our ppl finally confronted Basij properly when they got recognized. Scaring these thugs is the best solution. once they fear for their lives during protests, they'll prob/finally give up their dirty job.

 

[DireStraits]

hehe yeah remember our discussion DS jan! opinions change over time I guess! well I love my country..I want to be able to go there and be among my compatriots for abit at least..+ this time I had more imp reason to go..to attend my grandfather's funeral services and it was on exactly the same date as 25 Bahman.

Sorry about your grand pop. I hope you come over it soon.

 

[beystr 2.0]

U guys keep forgetting that people in Lybia and egypt are asking for the things we asked 32 yrs ago and thus more fierce in their stand...plus..for now.for all intensive purposes.people in Egypt..Bahrain..especially.. to get their voice heard...have shot themselves in the foot...and only allah know whats gonna be the outcome..

also u forget...defacto..IRI is a semi socilalist system...and going hungry will not be the reason for revolt...An's gov in terms of housing for poor has done alot..and irionically his model is being copied all over the world...mass housing with new construction techniques....India is one..

 

[asdola mirza]

My dear hamvatans,

I know that all of us have the best intentions for our beloved homeland in mind, but I think the real answer lies in Footballirani's excellent post from yesterday ie. the article by this guy Ali Reza Eshraghi. I have been living in Iran since about seven years now. This is after over 20 years abroad. As many have witnessed, I participated in last year's revolt and basically did my share without getting imprisoned or raped. Yes, I could have done more and that cowardice proves my point and the article's. I was comically even accused of being an agent last week for reporting that things were normal during the 2nd day of protests. We can sit behind our monitors inside or outside Iran and forever BEGIM LENGESH KON but it will never happen. As many know the English used to have a saying: You want to rule over Arabs, keep them fed. If you want to rule over Iranians, keep them hungry. Look at everything happening around us, I don't see Qataris or Emiratis or for the most part Saudis revolting. On the other hand, the original revolution in Iran happened when people were taking their situation for granted. I see it now first hand in Iran. I am sorry to say that I do not see any real change happening any time soon. If anything, I predict the situation to get worse. Again, read the article by this Mr. Eshraghi whom I really do not know but it does make a lot of sense.

 

[Abedzaadeh]

The common goal of the green movement is to dismantle the coup of Khamenei/AN/Sepah. Of course most want more in either serious reform or regime change, which as I mentioned in another thread, they have pretty much the same meaning now given the standards Khamenei/AN have set!

We can achieve that first goal in 2 ways:

a) Spread the movement to other parts of the society (beyond students/middle class)

b) increase the number of those in the regime that discreetly sympathise with the green, which would increase the divisions within the regime ranks.

Sadly not only it seems step a) hasnt materialised - on the contrary this yaraneh thing has made him even more popular with certain classes - this can change of course. And with 25 Bahman, we have alienated certain regime figures, making IR more united.

Should AN's dire economic mismanagement come to surface faster than expected, that should catalyse step (a), but I cannot be optimistic now about the immediate future of the green movement.

Of course politics is unpredictable and one can calculate and calculate and then the complete opposite happens within a short space of time. Hopefully this will apply here and my analysis will be proven wrong.

 

[DireStraits]

My dear hamvatans,

You want to rule over Arabs, keep them fed. If you want to rule over Iranians, keep them hungry. .

In that case I am an arab. Or Arabs are wiser than Iranians Or protest when you are hungry instead of when you are not everything will be fine.
I have also read that article. I am not impressed.
You guys have seen the videos of what they have done to protestors. The reason why fewer protested this year compare to last year is that there are fewer who still have guts. "Tokhm mikeshan" Not that now people are happy. Do you expect 99,99% of Iranians show up and protest to change the system? What if IRI hires forign soldiers?

U guys keep forgetting that people in Lybia and egypt are asking for the things we asked 32 yrs ago and thus more fierce in their stand.....

So we are now better than 32 years ago. Is that what you are saying? I don't have a glue about what you mean.