I honestly think Mousavi is not leading the ppl. It is naive to assume IRI would let him go free to plan the movement, carry his message across to ppl, and make things happen.
The uprising itself is riding on emotions and that is why it is fading. It was also full of unrealistic expectartions. What was about hopelessly finding a leader overnight when he was, even if qualified, unprepared for the job. No set goals, no international regnition, no money, no reliable communication means, no plan to spread the movement to other cities, no feasible alternative options... Why did he stop the momentum last week wasting the golden time trying to prove the election was rigged to those who actually did the crime! Meanwhile the system that was originally caught offgaurd by the unexpected extent of reaction on the streets, found the time to regroup, activate its emergency plans, expell the foreign media, attract the swinging forces, and plan for the next moves. It is not surprising that khamenei didn't declare his position clearly before Friday, he could have been forced to do differently if people never left the streets. I am not saying it was a 50/50 case, but that could have been the only reasonably fair shot people had. At this point, people are getting tired, suffering the lack of leadership of any sort, and their numbers are reduced day by day after on street and off street arrests. Those who are arrested are the braver group of people that let a demo take place by formaing the veery first nidus.
And yet we all hope some miracle would change the course of the events, but how? lets review the palyers together:
-Gaurdian Council won't say no to Khamanei once in a blue moon, especially on something that their very own existence depends on.
-Assembley of experts are also the same. Would you have supported the people or AN if you were a sane ayatollah??!
-Sepah: exclude a few mystic elements that we read about, what do you think a sepahi officer would have as motivation to drop all priviledges he enjoys, to risk his life and the future of his entire clan? what would be his gain? desablizing the very system that gives him identity?!
-Army: I just say impotent and stop there. People who have been in the army know that at any army base, the power of a low ranking intelligence officer or the mullah of aghidati siasi goes way beyond the general. Plus this army had over 100% turn over after revolution now and its basically another sepah that is only kept off the streets.
-Maragea: Who?
-Bazar: As far as I know they are with traditional Islam, the base for moatalefe and hojjatieh, and more or less happy with IRI. Even if they don't like AN, they know that IRI in the long run is not such a bad choice for them to risk thier money or lives against it. Would you do it if you make so much, you and a couple of your buddies and beothers have monopoly on lets say Khorus ghandi and pay so little tax because of your connections? Particularly if you have just got your second wife who is 19?
- Rafsanjani: AN was after his assload of money and we all know he had enough reasons to make it look justified. Hashemi either stirred the post-election events or just sensed it. Then cut the deal with khamanei: he remains silent and disappeared in return for them leaving his money alnoe. They might even let him and his kids take their billions and their lives to Canada. True politician. You guys will enjoy reading his autobiography in 10 years and some of you will even get to learn where the old man's mansion is in Vancouver.
- Khatami: he is happy with what he acheived. People voted in millions, another step towards "Jame ye madani". Too bad things became little violent towards the end...
-Karroubi: Genuine. Emotinal but not prepared.
-Masses on the street: mostly from central to north Tehran. Obviously brave, decisive, wise, as united as they can be, optimistic, tech-savvy, well-read, smart, creative...but sadly, it looks like all of these are not enough to get rid of a system that has its roots 30 years deep into their land, bones, and flesh.
People who are not on the streets: south Tehran, other cities, villages. They need to work to have food on their table tonight. Plus, do they really want to challenge agha emame zaman? astaghferollah.
-Judiciary: is there such a thing? what is it? Shahroodi that was appointed by rahbar or ghazi mortazavi who kills for rahbar.
-Police: I read somewhere today that a police officer was complaing about 2 weeks of unrest and how tired they got as a unit. This said it all. In other words, he said "we will stop beating ppl soon when we get overwhelmingly tired", or you can say "we will beat your ass until we get exhausted to death", who cares about right and wrong? we just do what we are told to do.
-Plain-clothes: for what ever reason, there are enogh of them in Iran to butcher men and women in cold blood and put millions of people in their sit. Are they brainwhaed? Do they like 200000 tomans a day they get paid? Do they enjoy the power? are they psychopaths? I don't know the exact answer.
-Expatriots: I guess that would be us. We all know the limits of how much (little) we can do.
-US and the rest of West including Israel: Who said investing in sattellite TVs and economic sanctions didn't work? After all these unsatblity, they will get a good deal from AN. "We don't meddle in Iran if you don't meddle in Gazze and Iraq". They might even let khamenei have a baby nuclear program just to save some face.
....feel free to add to the list...
