barron has a nice article on iran and why it is the next big emerging market
for investors.
Iran: The Next Frontier?
“Iran is the largest economy in the world by far that remains cut off from global markets,” says Charles Robertson, chief economist of Renaissance Capital, a London-based investment bank that had a good run in Russia and now wants to expand across the Middle East and Africa. “It’s like Turkey, but with 9% of the world’s oil reserves.”
Robertson’s bullish assumption is that any nukes-for-sanctions deal will throw open Iran’s investment gates whatever the next U.S. administration might do. European and Asian capitalists will not turn back so long as Tehran keeps its end of the bargain. They will capitalize on the country’s heretofore hidden advantages–a population of 81 million with a vigorous median age of 28, wages as low as Vietnam’s but much better education, and a diversified economy that has learned to make everything from cars to vodka during decades of isolation. “Iran is the only economy we have ever seen that has a positive trade balance in every one of 70 export categories, including alcohol,” says Robertson.
One way to get indirect exposure to the market, she suggests, is through South Africa-based cellular operator MTN Group (MTN.South Africa), a 49% owner of Iran’s No. 2 service MTN Irancell.
The TSE Index more than doubled during 2013 as speculation started about an end to sanctions. It has only dropped by 11% since oil prices started to plummet last July. “A trip to Tehran is eye-opening,” Robertson says. “It’s full of people who are friendly, cultured and convinced that the U.S. is their natural ally.” Is that enough to spur an investment boom? We’ll see.
read more: http://online.barrons.com/articles/iran-the-next-frontier-1427508357
for investors.
Iran: The Next Frontier?
“Iran is the largest economy in the world by far that remains cut off from global markets,” says Charles Robertson, chief economist of Renaissance Capital, a London-based investment bank that had a good run in Russia and now wants to expand across the Middle East and Africa. “It’s like Turkey, but with 9% of the world’s oil reserves.”
Robertson’s bullish assumption is that any nukes-for-sanctions deal will throw open Iran’s investment gates whatever the next U.S. administration might do. European and Asian capitalists will not turn back so long as Tehran keeps its end of the bargain. They will capitalize on the country’s heretofore hidden advantages–a population of 81 million with a vigorous median age of 28, wages as low as Vietnam’s but much better education, and a diversified economy that has learned to make everything from cars to vodka during decades of isolation. “Iran is the only economy we have ever seen that has a positive trade balance in every one of 70 export categories, including alcohol,” says Robertson.
One way to get indirect exposure to the market, she suggests, is through South Africa-based cellular operator MTN Group (MTN.South Africa), a 49% owner of Iran’s No. 2 service MTN Irancell.
The TSE Index more than doubled during 2013 as speculation started about an end to sanctions. It has only dropped by 11% since oil prices started to plummet last July. “A trip to Tehran is eye-opening,” Robertson says. “It’s full of people who are friendly, cultured and convinced that the U.S. is their natural ally.” Is that enough to spur an investment boom? We’ll see.
read more: http://online.barrons.com/articles/iran-the-next-frontier-1427508357
