the syrian and korean threads have been polluted with too much noise.
as promised i give you my understanding of what is going on in this brief note.
can obama pull a nixon?
we have to look at the world as a whole when analyzing the events in the middle east.
the united states has been the dominant force in that region ever since the uk withdrew their forces
in the early 70s.after vitenam war ended the u.s. pivoted to the persian gulf.the opening of china to
the world by nixon gave the u.s. the freedom to plan their next doctrine which was put into writing by
president carter and his national security team.ever since the u.s. has been operating based on that doctrine
which made the persian gulf and the security of oil supplies it's #1 priority in foreign policy.that doctrine
is coming to an end now.the u.s. is not as dependent on the oil supplies from the persian gulf and in fact
the estimates are that they are going to be totally independent of that oil supply in the near future.hence
the recent pivot/rebalancing towards asia that president obama and his national security team have initiated and which
will be the basis of the next security doctrine for the u.s.
with this new doctrine the u.s. has to wrap up their involvement in the middle east and in particular the persian gulf
and pass the baton to a partner that can provide the security for the region.this is precisely the reason why the arab
spring was put into motion with the support of the u.s. and her allies.also this is why the uk and france were so eager
join in and fill the vacuum that is going to be left by the u.s.absence.the u.s. doctrine is not yet finalized.the isreali firsters
and their wings of both the republican and democratic party in particular are trying to shape the events from their own prespective and
dictate their plans for the region to obama and his team.note the reluctance of obama getting involved in libya and syria and the eagerness
of u.k. and france to get involved in both countries.also note the alliance between turkey and the reactionary forces in the arab world to
confront iran and her allies in the region.
it seems to me that obama and his team have come to the conclusion that iran is the only sane and civilized nation,
with enough power,wealth and manpower,that can be trusted in being the dominant force in the region.this has alarmed
the semites,both jews and arabs,in the region which are trying very hard to prevent the required rapprochement between
iran and the u.s. for this doctrinve to begin taking shape.turkey is also being left out of the u.s. plan and they are playing
a very confused game with close ties to the reactionary arabs and on the other hand having very troubled relations with the isrealis.
at the same time turkey also knows that iran is the only power they can trust in the region.so it is plausible that they will
pivot towards iran once iran and the u.s. come to an agreement.this is why the republican right wing and the democratic
agents of isrealis in the u.s. policy making apparatus are doing their best to prevent a deal between iran and the u.s.
what is certain is that the u.s. is wrapping up it's involvement in the persian gulf and will not allow under any
circumstances a new conflict with iran in the region.that is just not financially or militarily in their long term interest and
future pivot towards east asia to deal with a surging china. the $64 question is will iran cooperate in implementing
this new doctrine.at then end it is up to obama and his team need to sweeten the offer a lot for iran to lose their mistrust and become a
trusted partner for the u.s. for the next few decades.
in short, it is now up to obama to be a visionary and make his iran play as nixon did his china play.
as promised i give you my understanding of what is going on in this brief note.
can obama pull a nixon?
we have to look at the world as a whole when analyzing the events in the middle east.
the united states has been the dominant force in that region ever since the uk withdrew their forces
in the early 70s.after vitenam war ended the u.s. pivoted to the persian gulf.the opening of china to
the world by nixon gave the u.s. the freedom to plan their next doctrine which was put into writing by
president carter and his national security team.ever since the u.s. has been operating based on that doctrine
which made the persian gulf and the security of oil supplies it's #1 priority in foreign policy.that doctrine
is coming to an end now.the u.s. is not as dependent on the oil supplies from the persian gulf and in fact
the estimates are that they are going to be totally independent of that oil supply in the near future.hence
the recent pivot/rebalancing towards asia that president obama and his national security team have initiated and which
will be the basis of the next security doctrine for the u.s.
with this new doctrine the u.s. has to wrap up their involvement in the middle east and in particular the persian gulf
and pass the baton to a partner that can provide the security for the region.this is precisely the reason why the arab
spring was put into motion with the support of the u.s. and her allies.also this is why the uk and france were so eager
join in and fill the vacuum that is going to be left by the u.s.absence.the u.s. doctrine is not yet finalized.the isreali firsters
and their wings of both the republican and democratic party in particular are trying to shape the events from their own prespective and
dictate their plans for the region to obama and his team.note the reluctance of obama getting involved in libya and syria and the eagerness
of u.k. and france to get involved in both countries.also note the alliance between turkey and the reactionary forces in the arab world to
confront iran and her allies in the region.
it seems to me that obama and his team have come to the conclusion that iran is the only sane and civilized nation,
with enough power,wealth and manpower,that can be trusted in being the dominant force in the region.this has alarmed
the semites,both jews and arabs,in the region which are trying very hard to prevent the required rapprochement between
iran and the u.s. for this doctrinve to begin taking shape.turkey is also being left out of the u.s. plan and they are playing
a very confused game with close ties to the reactionary arabs and on the other hand having very troubled relations with the isrealis.
at the same time turkey also knows that iran is the only power they can trust in the region.so it is plausible that they will
pivot towards iran once iran and the u.s. come to an agreement.this is why the republican right wing and the democratic
agents of isrealis in the u.s. policy making apparatus are doing their best to prevent a deal between iran and the u.s.
what is certain is that the u.s. is wrapping up it's involvement in the persian gulf and will not allow under any
circumstances a new conflict with iran in the region.that is just not financially or militarily in their long term interest and
future pivot towards east asia to deal with a surging china. the $64 question is will iran cooperate in implementing
this new doctrine.at then end it is up to obama and his team need to sweeten the offer a lot for iran to lose their mistrust and become a
trusted partner for the u.s. for the next few decades.
in short, it is now up to obama to be a visionary and make his iran play as nixon did his china play.
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