Need more proof Brnaco doesn't know sh.t?! Read on...

[Bi-honar]

He obviously hasn't even finished grade school math, but to guarantee qualification from a 4 team group, with home and away matches, and two teams advancing, a team will need 13 points, not 10.

There will be a maximum of 36 points awarded and in order to qualify, you must obtain over 1/3 of those points or 13 points. Don't believe me?

Only in the last WC, two teams failed to advance to the next round even with 10 or more points (and I'm sure their coaches weren't even stupid enough to be shooting only for 10 points!)
* India failed to make it to Round 2 of Asian Zone Qualifying with 11 points in Group 8.
* Costa Rica got eliminated in the semi-finals of CONCACAF qualifying with 10 points in Group E.

This is a very common occurence when there is one weak team in the group and three stronger teams (i.e. our current group!).
And I don't even know where these 10 points are coming from. If we play with the same tactics we played against Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain (i.e. no tactics), this is the best we're going to do:

Tie Japan at Home, Tie Away.
Beat Korea at Home, Tie Away.
Tie Bahrain at Home, Tie Away.

For those who can't add (i.e. Branco), that's only 8 points! Looks depressing? Think about it a bit... If he went for an Away tie against Bahrain, don't you think he's going to go for away tie's against Japan and Korea?! Do you think all of those teams are going to play for a loss in Azadi?! The above predictions are a little negative? Here's our WCQ record against these teams:

0-2-1 against Bahrain.
1-0-1 against Japan.
2-1-0 against Korea DPR.

I ask you again, based on Branco's tactics and game plans so far, are the aboe predictions negative or realistic?!

 

[Naveed M]

dude

i said this a few weeks ago

10p is not enough to aim for

aim for 12p

11p should be enough

 

[Pepsi]

Branko is the best coach we have had, he is much smarter them me you and some football experts....I am also mad that he lets daei play the whole time but maybe he is forced to do so......we must not come with so many critics at him man......

 

[Bi-honar]

Well Navid Kia jaan, to aim for 12 points now, we have to win 3 of the next 5 games and tie the other two (i.e. no loss whatsoever)! Not looking good, eh?!

 

[Naveed M]

Well Navid Kia jaan, to aim for 12 points now, we have to win 3 of the next 5 games and tie the other two (i.e. no loss whatsoever)! Not looking good, eh?!

I think it looks good pal !

Serioulsy we are heading for Germany 2006 !

11p should be enough but aim for 12 !!

Guys be positive

 

[Arsenal]

* Costa Rica got eliminated in the semi-finals of CONCACAF qualifying with 10 points in Group E.

Costa Rica got eliminated? Interesting news.....as I saw them during the last world cup.

 

[Chief]

Bi-Honar you are wrong!

Consider this:

Japan 2 - NK 1
Bahrain 0 - Iran 0
--------------------
Iran 1 - Japan 0
NK 1 - Bahrain 0
--------------------
NK 1 - Iran 0
Japan 1 - Bahrain 0
--------------------
Iran 1 - NK 0
Bahrain 0 - Japan 0
-----------------------
Iran 1 - Bahrain 0
NK 1 - Japan 0
-------------------------
Japan 1 - Iran 0
Bahrain 1 - NK 0
------------------

Final Standings

IR ... 3-1-2-10pts
JP ... 3-1-2-10pts
NK ... 3-0-3-9pts
BH ... 1-2-3-5pts

 

[farid]

ok... bi honar jooon.. WHO should be our coach now? since you think that branko doesn't know shit?!?! who should it be?? and u believe it's the right time to change the coach???

 

[Naveed M]

Branko has done good so far, support the guy and we reach Germany 2006 !

 

[Babak G]

Listen your "theory" is only that,just as saying 10 points would be enough.

Bi-honar,do me a favor go look at the Champions League groups for the past 2-3 seasons and see how many times how many points was needed to qualify.

I know 10 points have been enough many times.
But 11 will guarantee it Im sure.

The reason Branko says 10 is because we would get the draw with Bahrain,beat Bahrain at home and beat NK twice,and lets just say we lose twice to Japan.

Based on that Bahrain have one point off us,and lets say they beat NK twice,they would need to beat Japan once and then goal difference comes into play.But if they beat Japan then why not us beating them too?

 

[wvupersian]

I do not like math when it comes to soccer, specially when TM is target. however, I think bronko wants to guarantee qualification before the last game Vs. Japan. If so, He needs to win all the games at Azadi with no exception! and get extra point from N.K away.

 

[nakhl]

He obviously hasn't even finished grade school math, but to guarantee qualification from a 4 team group, with home and away matches, and two teams advancing, a team will need 13 points, not 10.
.......
I ask you again, based on Branco's tactics and game plans so far, are the aboe predictions negative or realistic?!

Bi-Honar,

ur math is not good for a ba-honar

u claim 13 points may be needed when at the most extreme case when one team lose all games and the other three teams share the victories, then each of the three would have 12 points and one team cannot advance even with 12 points. This is an extremely rare case and the safegaurd against this, is by having better goal difference.

u completely ignored the draws. each draw eliminates 2 points. so far we had had 1 draw and probably another 2 will happen. so, at most we are talking about 30 points up for grabs (not 36) and 1/3 of 30 points is the magic number 10.

u also never mentioned the importance of the sequence of games. For example, luckily we have our toughest games at the beginning and end of the tourney (Bahrain, *Japan, NK*, NK*, and then Bahrain*, Japan!). Do not even count the last game with Japan cuz that game will not be deciding fo us (i mean it must not). So, the next more difficult was Bahrain away that we tied. setting those two games aside, we have 4 games up for winning (the ones with star above) and we need to win at least 3 of the 4 (hopefully the first 3).

In contrast to our sched., poor bahrain and japan will get into a fierce fight for the 6 points right in the middle of tourney when we are playing NK! then, bahrain comes to iran from an exhauting battle with japan in manama and depending on the results, bahrain's hopes for WC may not be that high by then. But, Iran may have qualified even b4 bahrain clash.

there is a very plausible scenario:Our last game with japan may be the deciding game for the second place. In this case, we need to decide which one (bahrain or japan) we'd want to make go through.

Open ur eyes. Remove ur thick BLACK glasses and u'll see the light. Indeed, the light shines in our direction and we have the easiest most direct way to qualification. just have to remove the blinders to see.

 

[zoozanagheh]

Bi-honar mersi baraye honaret! He is simply right:
Mathematically speaking you need at least 13 to GUARANTY advancement as one of the first two teams.
Of course there could be several scenarios where one can advance (as 1st or 2nd place) with less points. But there is no GUARANTY! You may or may not end up being top two. It’s risky and a Gamble (which is “harAm”) to aim for just 10 points. Here is one scenario that proves a team with 10 points can end up in third place, and as you know one proof in math is enough to invalidate a theory:

Total # Games: 12

(Before the first game):
Total Max Points: 36
Total Min Points: 24

Each Team # Games: 6
Each Team Max Point: 18


A 13 4-1-1 win+lose B; win+tie C; win+win D
B 12 4-0-2 lose+win A; win+lose C; win+win D
C 10 3-1-2 lose+tie A; lose+win B; win+win D
D 0

And here is why 12 points is not enough, let alone 11 points:


A 12 4-0-2 win+lose B; win+lose C; win+win D
B 12 4-0-2 lose+win A; win+lose C; win+win D
C 12 4-0-2 lose+win A; lose+win B; win+win D
D 0

You have to have at least 13 points to GUARANTY advancement: in order for another team to be ahead of your team, that team has to have at least 13 points which leaves only 10 points to the third team.


Unless one wants to leave it to fate and go with predictions or wishful thinking and aim for less points, as there is no GUARANTY that her/his prayers will come true, one needs to be ready to play additional rounds and face the roller coaster of advancing as 3rd team.
It's possible to advance with 10 or even less than that, but it’s risky and unwise to aim for less than 13 points.

 

[Bi-honar]

Thank you Zoozi jaan. This Branco dude has handed so much B.S. to Iranians, people are willing to challenge simple math to say Branco is right!
This is really sad. As you mentioned I was talking about a guatantee to advance. theoretically you can advance with 6 points, if all the games were tied, but so what, this dude is coaching us to be in the WC, not to aim for points that will theoretically get us to the WC!!!
To answer the question, if not Branco, then who, I've said a million times, there are dozens of first class international coaches, the likes of Bruno Metsu or Bora Milutinovich. People with real experience and credentials. What does Branco have in term of credentials?
If you guys honestly think that we could have played any worse on Wednesday, even without a coach, you can't be more wrong. To me that was an absolute disgrace for a team that once was and now claims to be the best in Asia.

 

[Chief]

Don't twist what Bronko said.
He said 10 points is enough to qualify. He did not said it's guranteed!
I proved it mathematically that Bronko was rite in the last page.

 

[zoozanagheh]

Don't twist what Bronko said.
He said 10 points is enough to qualify. He did not said it's guranteed!
I proved it mathematically that Bronko was rite in the last page.

Dear Chief, I am afraid that's not proof, that's just a possibile scenario as there are other possible scenarios that you can not advance with 10 or even 12 points (please refer to my earlier post).