Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.
Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.
There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.
Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years.
"There is a determined, focused establishment effort … to find a candidate we can coalesce around who can beat Sarah Palin," said one prominent and longtime Washington Republican. "We believe she could get the nomination, but Barack Obama would crush her."
This sentiment was a nearly constant refrain in POLITICO interviews with top advisers to the candidates most frequently mentioned as running in 2012 and a diverse assortment of other top GOP officials.
Nearly all of these interviewees insisted on keeping their views on background, fearing the wrath of conservative grass-roots activists who are enthralled with the former Alaska governor and who have made plain that the establishment’s disdain for Palin and her devotees is mutually reciprocated.
Top Republicans, from presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty to highly influential advisers such as Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, are said to be concerned she will run, and could win, according to the officials.
A Palin adviser declined to comment.
Shortly after the article was posted, Palin went on Fox News, where she is a paid commentator, to criticize POLITICO and any unnamed critics.
"[T]hese are the brave people who want to lead the nation and run the world. And but they're not brave enough to put their name in an article," she told Greta Van Susteren. "I learned back in the day that who, what, when, where, why of journalism. You report that facts; you let other people decide what their opinion is going to be. So having unnamed sources in an article like this is very, very, disappointing, you know. And it doesn't do anybody any good. It doesn't educate anybody. … I'm getting used to it though."
Most, if not all, of the top GOP presidential contenders will hold off on formal announcements until next spring, in part to get a better handle on what Palin will do. Instead, they will focus on lining up key supporters and raising enough money to prove their viability by the end of March. The officials said the price of entry to compete credibly in Iowa and New Hampshire will be roughly $35 million.
The stop-Palin talks are by no means coordinated among the various campaigns. But top advisers for most of the 2012 hopefuls told us the candidates — as well as many establishment figures — are fixated on the topic, especially on how to keep her from running or how to deny her the nomination if she does run.
A longtime Republican leader said party elders hope to thwart Palin by strengthening the Republican National Committee, which has been a magnet for controversy and has seen lackluster fundraising under current Chairman Michael Steele, and outside groups such as those blessed by Rove and Gillespie and now spending heavily on congressional races.
This would represent "a strong counterweight to some kind of guerrilla effort Palin might try to launch." This leader said the party needs to create a unified job creation theme to offset the "cult of personality" that is Palin. "You deter someone by creating stronger opposition."
Rove, one of the few establishment types to raise flags publicly about a Palin bid, this week told Britain’s Daily Telegraph that her upcoming reality show on cable TV could diminish her presidential standing. "I am not certain how this fits in the American calculus of 'that helps me see you in the Oval Office,'" Rove said.
Steele sounded a different note in a POLITICO interview: "I don't think that Sarah's too much worried about what Karl Rove's speculations are."
Steele said the Washington fretting about Palin, who “excites and ignites an energy out there,” is part of a broader theme. “I think the Washington establishment needs to settle down a little bit and get ready for what's about to hit them come January, when a significant number of grass-roots congressmen and -women show up and are not prepared to play this game the way they're used to playing it,” the chairman said. Asked whether Palin is electable, he added: “Sure. Why not? … I’m sure she can make that case.”
The establishment concern about Palin — at least in its current intensity — is new.
In the wake of the 2008 presidential campaign, there was a widespread belief among Republican strategists and 2012 aspirants that the former Alaska governor was a colorful and energizing figure but not one who projected the authority, or even necessarily held the desire, to make a serious bid for the White House. This view gained credence after Palin resigned the Alaska governorship before finishing her first term.
But nonchalance has turned to alarm among party elites in 2010, as Palin repeatedly showed her clout among a key bloc of anti-establishment conservatives. Obviously relishing her role as a powerful force in GOP primaries, Palin made risky but decisive endorsements for Senate candidates such as Joe Miller in Alaska and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, both of whom beat establishment favorites but in the process made those states less winnable for the GOP.
Palin this week told "Entertainment Tonight" that if a candidate she feels is sufficiently conservative does not emerge, she would feel moved to run. "If there's nobody else to do it, then of course I would believe that we should do this."
The comments came the same week as an ABC News/Washington Post poll that showed 39 percent of registered voters view her favorably and only 27 percent believe she is qualified to be president.
But highlighting the challenge for establishment Republicans, two groups that matter in GOP primaries have a different view. Self-identified conservative Republicans say, by a 55 percent majority, that she is qualified. And 73 percent of people who say they are strong supporters of the tea party movement believe she is qualified. But, as noted by pollster Gary Langer, who took the survey, this latter group represents only one in 10 registered voters.
Even among Republicans, these data spell some trouble for Palin. Nearly a majority of conservative Republicans think she is not qualified to be president. And interviews with some activists who admire Palin suggest that though they thrill in how she rubs establishment sensibilities the wrong way, this doesn’t necessarily translate to support for her candidacy.
Even so, top Republicans fear the dynamic that played out in many of this year’s intraparty Senate contests — especially in comparatively small states like Nevada, Alaska, Utah and Delaware, where tea party activists helped topple establishment favorites — could easily be repeated in early-state presidential caucuses and primaries. In many cases, the tea party activists cared more about ideological affinity than perceived electability in the general election.
"If she runs, she runs right at the establishment," said a top adviser to a rival campaign. As witnessed in recent weeks, she would have powerful backup — at least at the outset of a campaign — among conservative media figures, especially Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck. She would also face a mainstream media eager and ready to play up her every move, word and tweet.
The establishment-vs.-activists narrative is hardly novel in presidential primaries. What's different this time is that the anti-establishment candidate — Palin — would enter with unmatched celebrity and media advantages, at a time when the establishment is weaker than it’s been in many years.
Limbaugh did not respond directly to an e-mail request for comment, but he did mention the inquiry about establishment antipathy to Palin on his radio show. “It could also be they're scared to death that [if] Palin wins, it's the end of them — the Republican establishment,” Limbaugh said.
He also questioned the timing of media speculation about her impact. “What's the point of running a story like that right now if not, then, to sow dissension in the ranks?”
The gathering presidential campaigns-in-waiting anticipate what amounts to two competing GOP primaries: one to win the backing of the party's establishment, another to represent the tea party crowd. In past elections, voters of Iowa and New Hampshire have been resistant to highly partisan candidates, and GOP presidential nominees have historically gone to establishment-backed candidates over insurgents. Then again, that has also been true of GOP Senate primaries — which decidedly was not the case this past year.
Romney is certain to run for the establishment nod and hopes to amass as much as $50 million or more within 90 days of his official announcement. Romney, who must overcome perceptions of inauthenticity after running hard to the right in 2008, has the most sophisticated campaign-in-waiting and enjoys strong ties to Wall Street fundraisers.
Pawlenty, who has basically employed the Romney strategy of 2008 by working quietly and relentlessly on the early states and locking down establishment support, is a sure bet to run, too. So far, he has stirred little enthusiasm among Washington insiders, but his working-man persona is appealing to some. Haley Barbour, the Mississippi governor, has turned heads with his leadership of the Republican Governors Association and continues to tell friends he will run. Some of the officials plan to ask him to run the RNC instead, to help strengthen the establishment and beat back a Palin nomination. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota is virtually certain to run, too.
Still, there's a sense that none of the most-talked-about candidates are ideal, which is why many Republicans remain intrigued by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, despite his willingness to consider tax increases, and others. The belief that competence will be the currency in 2012 helps explain Daniels's appeal. Finally, Rep. Paul Ryan continues to get lobbied behind the scenes to contemplate a run, especially if no one else catches fire early on.
"It's a total jump ball," said a strategist for one of the likely candidates. "Someone who is at 2 percent could wind up getting it."
The anti-establishment favorite is Palin. She has sent signals she is more serious about running than many expected. No GOP candidate can generate more headlines, attract bigger crowds or better inspire anti-establishment conservatives than Palin can. If she runs — and the betting now is that she does — there is a plausible path to victory.
Few, if any, Republican officials want to challenge Palin's credentials in public, but most speak dismissively and condescendingly about her in private. They think she would kill Republican chances with independents and conservative Democrats frustrated with Obama’s expansive agenda.
Still, she has never faced serious criticism in public in a campaign setting, and it's impossible to anticipate how she would react to it — or whether she would want to give up the money and celebrity to put herself through that. Palin wouldn't be the only anti-establishment candidate. Mike Huckabee, who had the highest favorability ratings among the possible GOP candidates in a POLITICO/George Washington University poll in October, is a strong possibility and, according to a recent New York Times story by Peter Baker, is the White House favorite to win the nomination, for whatever that is worth. Huckabee and Palin have hit Rove for tweaking the tea party activists, and it's safe to assume voters will hear a lot more tweaking in the months to come. Newt Gingrich, who has raised more money than any other GOP hopeful, will compete for this space, too, and recently told a confidant he needs to show more self-discipline if he really wants to run and win.