Osama Bin Laden Dead!

[Natural]

ok so you are saying for the government it is better to have a good presidential PR stunt rather than get intelligence about the most prolific terrorist organisation in the world from the world's most wanted man?

That's not exactly what I meant. you would be naive to think that politics didn't have anything do with capturing the most wanted man for Obama. performing a high level CIA/Military operation has extremely high political stakes. so PR DOES play a big part. You don't want to come out a loser at the end of it as a president.

You would be naive to think that the Obama admin didn't consider the political impact this will have on them whether they succeed or not. the reality of it is that PR is just important in politics, that's the nature of it whether you like it or not.

ok to be fair you did also mention risk of life and diplomacy but i'd think that diplomacy with pakistan

I didn't mention anything about diplomacy. here's what I meant: they were in Pakistan Illegally and they had to be extremely fast and efficient in order not to confront the Pakistani air forces/army and create even more complications in a rather complicated situation that they were to begin with. forget about diplomacy. the relationship between Pakistan and US is already a very sick one.

the government would prefer a presidential PR stunt rather than getting intelligence from their most wanted man just to pull a PR stunt?

They want both. Both are equally important for them. taking him out serves a great PR for Obama and also is practical. killing the head of an organization that wants to destroy you has some practical value as well (being a bit sarcastic here, it has HUGE practical value).

ok wouldn't it make more sense that they either had him covered for a long time and were just deciding on a right time to pull the trigger and now was deemed to be such for whatever circumstances so they already had all the information they wanted out of him.. or they were actually keeping him on a short leash anyway with/without his own knowledge so basically there was nothing he knew that they'd be interested in.. and if they had him covered for a while (or forever).. it's not a stretch to say maybe he was already dead..

It IS a stretch. PR is an important factor in politics, but that is not a solid evidence for you to conclude the above out of thin air. It just sounds a bit nutty.

 

[deerouz]

Let me see if I can summarize some of my questions here:
1- Why would Osama hide in a high profile building, even a compound, that stands out from the rest? Doesn't it make sense to live in some nondescript location that blends with the rest of the town?

2- What were his escape routes? If you are smart enough to hatch 9/11, would you live on the third floor where the only way out is jumping out of the window?

3- He apparently lived there for 6 years. How long does it take for the CIA and the military to start wondering what is going on there? The building and its strange occupants scream look at me. Why do you need to track couriers?

4- The firefight went on for 40 minutes. Only couple of blocks away were military and police bases. What did they do when they heard the gunfight and helicopters landing? Nothing, apparently. This can only mean somebody let it go on, which means Pakis must have known.

The rest of the stuff about sea burial and releasing or not releasing pictures are all political.
5-

All valid questions that the official story hasn't answered.

To me the likeliest scenario is that he was living there under house arrest or protection by Pakistan ISI or at least elements within that agency. I doubt the Americans knew about it, otherwise Bush would have certainly taken him out before the 2008 election to score a huge victory for republicans. Americans like such sensational news.

It is possible to believe that the US found out about this last year (as Obama claims). In that case, the last nine months may not have been spent in intelligence gathering, but actually in negotiations with Pakistan. Handing Osama over to US would have been the death sentence for Pakistani government. It is probable at the end the two sides decided to let the Americans take him out and the Pakistanis to deny everything. I don't believe for a moment that Pakistan was kept in dark regardless of what they claim. As Flint points out, how could a 40-minute gunfight goes own in a military town without the army trying to intervene?

This theory also explains to some extent why Osama had to be killed instead of taken alive - even if unarmed, and why his body should have quickly disposed of, and why a very small unit should take such a big job, and why both sides keep denying Pakistan's role.

The thing is that if this theory is right, we will never know about its truth for at least a couple of generations. This will be one of those top secret incidents that will be locked and sealed.

 

[General Parsaian]

IF GP, IRI or al qada say these arajif, it is their function and job.....Baghiaton che dalil darid???

جناب
من کاری به اینکه بقیه چه فکر میکنند ندارم
ما اینجا اسامه بن لادن را داریم که امریکا به سختی به دنبال اوست
و ده سال تمام نتوانسته اثری از او بیابد
حتما باید این شخص یعنی بن لادن در جایی مخفی شده باشد که این همه نیرو و جاسوس و این همه تکنولوژی پیشرفته امریکا نتوانسته اثری از او بیابد
بعد از ده سال به من خبر می رسد که این شخص در قصری در نزدیکی یک پادگان نظامی خوش و خرم با زن و بچه هایش زندگی می کرده
یعنی احساس خطر نمی کرده
تا انجا که حتی محافظ هم نداشته
و این شخصی که برنامه ریزی دقیقی در سال 2001 انجام داد و توانست در امریکا ان نقشه دقیق را طرح ریزی کند
حتی چند نفری نداشته که به او خبر بدهند که اسامه 4 تا هلیکوپتر دارند به سمت قصر تو می ایند
بعد این شیخ قصر نشین ما را میکشند
جسدش کجاست جانم
انداختیم توی دریا
چند نفر محافظ داشت دو نفر و هر دو کشته شدند
من یک چنین چیزی را باور نمی کنم زیرا منطقی نیست به نظر من اسامه بن لادن سالها پیش کشته شده
و از ان مثل یک مترسک یا لولو خوره برای برخی از مقاصدشان استفاده شد
الان دیگر به او احتیاجی نبود
به همین خاطر این فیلم هندی را بازی کردند


بله جانم

 

[a123321r]

PR is an important factor in politics, but that is not a solid evidence for you to conclude the above out of thin air. It just sounds a bit nutty.

i think the gist of what you are not getting from what i'm saying is that .. i am NOT concluding anything.. i'm just saying these are all possibilities.. the government's explanation as well is a possibility but i don't have real proof to accept ANY of them as facts and unless any of us become privileged to some insider information then none of can actually know for a fact what the true version of events are.. this is not science.. it's politics!

 

[Natural]

All valid questions that the official story hasn't answered.

To me the likeliest scenario is that he was living there under house arrest or protection by Pakistan ISI or at least elements within that agency. I doubt the Americans knew about it, otherwise Bush would have certainly taken him out before the 2008 election to score a huge victory for republicans. Americans like such sensational news.

It is possible to believe that the US found out about this last year (as Obama claims). In that case, the last nine months may not have been spent in intelligence gathering, but actually in negotiations with Pakistan. Handing Osama over to US would have been the death sentence for Pakistani government. It is probable at the end the two sides decided to let the Americans take him out and the Pakistanis to deny everything. I don't believe for a moment that Pakistan was kept in dark regardless of what they claim. As Flint points out, how could a 40-minute gunfight goes own in a military town without the army trying to intervene?

This theory also explains to some extent why Osama had to be killed instead of taken alive - even if unarmed, and why his body should have quickly disposed of, and why a very small unit should take such a big job, and why both sides keep denying Pakistan's role.

The thing is that if this theory is right, we will never know about its truth for at least a couple of generations. This will be one of those top secret incidents that will be locked and sealed.

That's the first plausible intelligent theory that Ive heard so far.

I just have one question, how does that explain tossing the body in the sea? i didn't see the connection, between your theory and that incident.
And what do you mean by a small unit? are you refering to the 79 commandos?

 

[Natural]

i think the gist of what you are not getting from what i'm saying is that .. i am NOT concluding anything.. i'm just saying these are all possibilities.. the government's explanation as well is a possibility but i don't have real proof to accept ANY of them as facts and unless any of us become privileged to some insider information then none of can actually know for a fact what the true version of events are.. this is not science.. it's politics!

You might as well not believe Obama was born in the US, or that man walked on the moon. afterall you dont have insider information.

 

[kambujiyeh]

How do we know if he was not captured alive, interrogated and then killed Anyway, as far as I am concerned, a fucking animal was killed and great news indeed.

 

[footballeirani]

I pretty much said yesterday what Deerouz said now and you guys were all dismissive now his theory is the most plausible intelligent argument?

Guessing some people here do not even read the posts.

 

[deerouz]

I just have one question, how does that explain tossing the body in the sea? i didn't see the connection, between your theory and that incident.
And what do you mean by a small unit? are you refering to the 79 commandos?

Good point. It doesn't explain it. I can imagine they were not able to find any place to take his body, and dumping it in sea would have been the surest way to avoid any future claims about Osama's bones or skull or anything like that! They also couldn't just kill him quietly. It was a prize that Obama needed.

About the size of the unit, I thought it was 15 commandos in 4 helicopters, right? I haven't been following the news of details of the operation. If it was 79 then yes, not too small.

 

[deerouz]

I pretty much said yesterday what Deerouz said now and you guys were all dismissive now his theory is the most plausible intelligent argument?

Guessing some people here do not even read the posts.

With one difference: you believed the Americans knew about him for a long time. I don't think they knew about his hideout. If they did, Either Bush would have taken him out before 2008 election or Obama would have done so before the 2010 midterm elections.

 

[footballeirani]

With one difference: you believed the Americans knew about him for a long time. I don't think they knew about his hideout. If they did, Either Bush would have taken him out before 2008 election or Obama would have done so before the 2010 midterm elections.

I do not think taking him out in 2008 would have helped McCain. He was just a senator like Obama. Bush getting the credit would not help McCain. It is possible that they were using Bin Laden as a bait to get the number 2 guy or even using him to uncover any plots of value against western targets.

When you have a guy who is basically a mountain of information you just do not go in there and kill him. Especially when he is not armed. That does not make sense from an intelligence perspective. Do you really think Pakistanis could so visibly hide Bin Laden without us knowing?

Plus let me add that getting Bin Laden right before an election is a little bit too staged and most voters may not even react positively to it.

 

[Natural]

I pretty much said yesterday what Deerouz said now and you guys were all dismissive now his theory is the most plausible intelligent argument?

Guessing some people here do not even read the posts.

Adding to what Deerouz said regarding you, you also raised a question why Al-zahwari wasn't living with Osama in the same house at the time of the attack. I wouldn't call that an intelligent argument/question.

 

[Natural]

I do not think taking him out in 2008 would have helped McCain. He was just a senator like Obama. Bush getting the credit would not help McCain. It is possible that they were using Bin Laden as a bait to get the number 2 guy or even using him to uncover any plots of value against western targets.

When you have a guy who is basically a mountain of information you just do not go in there and kill him. Especially when he is not armed. That does not make sense from an intelligence perspective. Do you really think Pakistanis could so visibly hide Bin Laden without us knowing?

Plus let me add that getting Bin Laden right before an election is a little bit too staged and most voters may not even react positively to it.

wow.. it's amazing how much crazy stuff one can put in just a few lines...

 

[Natural]

Good point. It doesn't explain it. I can imagine they were not able to find any place to take his body, and dumping it in sea would have been the surest way to avoid any future claims about Osama's bones or skull or anything like that! They also couldn't just kill him quietly. It was a prize that Obama needed.

About the size of the unit, I thought it was 15 commandos in 4 helicopters, right? I haven't been following the news of details of the operation. If it was 79 then yes, not too small.

I agree with you about dumping the body in the sea. That was just the only solution left on the table when no other countries are willing to accept it to be buried in their land.

Yes I read in NYtimes today there were 79 commandoes.

 

[Mahdi]

The truth is that Bin Laden, Michael Jackson, Elvis and Hitler are all in Chile right now drinking red wine...on Obama's hacienda...true story!

 

[deerouz]

I do not think taking him out in 2008 would have helped McCain. He was just a senator like Obama. Bush getting the credit would not help McCain.

I disagree. Obama primarily presented himself as anti-Bush. McCain could ride on Bush's popularity after such victory.

When you have a guy who is basically a mountain of information you just do not go in there and kill him. Especially when he is not armed. That does not make sense from an intelligence perspective. Do you really think Pakistanis could so visibly hide Bin Laden without us knowing?

If he was under house arrest for a number of years, then his information was extremely limited. He was a figurehead. Most of his field commanders have already been arrested. His head had a value - off his body - but not the contents of it.

Regarding Pakistanis keeping him without Americans knowing about it, if a bunch of ragheads were able to plan a sophisticated operation like 9/11 without American knowing about it, a government with all resources can do a lot better. Or are we again back to 9/11 truther theories as well?

Plus let me add that getting Bin Laden right before an election is a little bit too staged and most voters may not even react positively to it.

The truthers have to make up their minds. If Bin Laden was killed just before an election they would have said it was staged for the election, Now that he is killed far from any election they say it was staged carefully so that no one suspect it was staged for election!

 

[footballeirani]

I disagree. Obama primarily presented himself as anti-Bush. McCain could ride on Bush's popularity after such victory.

If he was under house arrest for a number of years, then his information was extremely limited. He was a figurehead. Most of his field commanders have already been arrested. His head had a value - off his body - but not the contents of it.

Regarding Pakistanis keeping him without Americans knowing about it, if a bunch of ragheads were able to plan a sophisticated operation like 9/11 without American knowing about it, a government with all resources can do a lot better. Or are we again back to 9/11 truther theories as well?

The truthers have to make up their minds. If Bin Laden was killed just before an election they would have said it was staged for the election, Now that he is killed far from any election they say it was staged carefully so that no one suspect it was staged for election!

oK i do not want us to start wasting time debating the hypothetical scenarios. In my opinion capturing Osama right before an election is not going to get you votes. Many people talk about an October surprise and getting Bin Laden, but in my opinion such an event would come off as phony and staged to many of the voters.

and even if you get him a while before the election, many people are not going to remember it by the time they will be at the polls. Plus killing Bin Laden is not going to mean a better economy, more jobs, or healthcare for everyone.

bad example on the 9/11 and how the Americans did not know about it. That was an intelligence failure where many of the agencies were not communicating effectively together. Otherwise the warnings were there, dots were not connected, and information was not shared between the agencies.

 

[raminio05]

Just a little bit of patience please.

 

[biAzar]

The truth is that Bin Laden, Michael Jackson, Elvis and Hitler are all in Chile right now drinking red wine...on Obama's hacienda...true story!

Didn't this administration forged Micheal Jackson's death to divert media's attention from unrest in Iran???
And how ironic is that Bin Laden would be "killed" on anniversary of Hitler's death and 8 years to exact date of "mission accomplished" speech by Bush.
And Osama enjoyed Elvis' " with suspicious mind" when in the caves.

 

[Motori]

I must give the kudos where it is due and well deserved. President Obama was the one and only who made the possible political life threatening decision to go ahead with this daunting operation.

So many unknown could go wrong, American lives could be lost (ergo Operation Eagle Claw) which could end the legacy of any American President. But obviously USCIC decided to do what is right for US and the rest of the world vs. his own reelection concerns and/or political career. Salute!! Mr. President.