It is interesting that Azeris (Musavi's ethinc minority) voted for Ahmadinejad twice as many as for Musavi 
. Also the poll predicted a 89% turn out wich is close.
. Also the poll predicted a 89% turn out wich is close. 
Salam General,
Shoma gofte boodi ke hameye shahrestan va dahat-ha be Ahmadinejad ra'y dadan. Link'e zir neshun mide ke harfe shoma dorost boode. Report'e vezarat'e keshvar shahr be shahr ara ro neshun mide. Takhmine jenabali nesbat be inke Moosavi faghat dar markaze shahr ve Shemiran va dar chand "shomal-shahr"e dige borde dorost boode.
http://www.moi.ir/ostan.pdf
Shoma gofte boodi ke hameye shahrestan va dahat-ha be Ahmadinejad ra'y dadan. Link'e zir neshun mide ke harfe shoma dorost boode. Report'e vezarat'e keshvar shahr be shahr ara ro neshun mide. Takhmine jenabali nesbat be inke Moosavi faghat dar markaze shahr ve Shemiran va dar chand "shomal-shahr"e dige borde dorost boode.
http://www.moi.ir/ostan.pdf
متشکر جناب علی
بنده همانطور که گفتم بر این باور هستم که اکثریت قاطع ایرانیان خارج از کشور
انهایی که رای داده اند به موسوی رای داده اند
مثلا در ژنو بیش از هشتاد و پنج درصد به موسوی رای داده اند
و کمتر از ده درصد به احمدی نژاد
این رای دهندگان چیری حدود 900 نفر بوده اند
در صورتی که مثلا شهر گلستان بیش از هفتاد درصد به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند و تنها سی درصد به موسوی
این رای دهندگان تقریبا یک ملیون نفر بوده اند
خوب اگر بنده در ژنو باشم حتما میگویم در انتخابات تقلب شده
ولی ایا شخصی که در شهر گلستان است همین حرف را می زند ؟
خیر
به این دلیل است که اکثر دوستان ما که در خارج زندگی میکنند فکر میکنند موسوی بیشتر رای اورده
و بنده به انها حق میدهم
متشکرم
بنده همانطور که گفتم بر این باور هستم که اکثریت قاطع ایرانیان خارج از کشور
انهایی که رای داده اند به موسوی رای داده اند
مثلا در ژنو بیش از هشتاد و پنج درصد به موسوی رای داده اند
و کمتر از ده درصد به احمدی نژاد
این رای دهندگان چیری حدود 900 نفر بوده اند
در صورتی که مثلا شهر گلستان بیش از هفتاد درصد به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند و تنها سی درصد به موسوی
این رای دهندگان تقریبا یک ملیون نفر بوده اند
خوب اگر بنده در ژنو باشم حتما میگویم در انتخابات تقلب شده
ولی ایا شخصی که در شهر گلستان است همین حرف را می زند ؟
خیر
به این دلیل است که اکثر دوستان ما که در خارج زندگی میکنند فکر میکنند موسوی بیشتر رای اورده
و بنده به انها حق میدهم
متشکرم
بله دوست عزیز
و حق هم دارند
شما اگر توجه داشته باشید اکثریت انهایی که به احمدی نژاد رای دادند از روستاها و شهرک ها شهرستانها هستند
و اکثر ادمهایی هستند که نه وقت تظاهرات دارند و نه حوصله این کار را
یا کارگر هستند یا کشاورز
من مطمئا هستم از این تقریبا یک ملیونی که در خارج رای داده اند نوصد هزار نفر به موسوی رای داده اند
وقتی فلان شخص در خارج می بیند تمام دوست و اشنایان و اطرافیانش به موسوی رای داده اند
و در اخر احمدی نژاد دو برابر موسوی رای اورده حکما انتخابات را دروغ می داند
ولی همین شخص فکر نمی کند که ملیونها روستایی و فقیر به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند
و میاید و می گوید رای من کجاست ؟
از خودش نمی پرسد رای دیگران هم قابل احترام است
یک ملیونیر ایرانی که در ژنو زندگی میکند و ان فقیر روستایی که در ایذه زندگی میکند هر دو یک رای دارند
متشکرم
و حق هم دارند
شما اگر توجه داشته باشید اکثریت انهایی که به احمدی نژاد رای دادند از روستاها و شهرک ها شهرستانها هستند
و اکثر ادمهایی هستند که نه وقت تظاهرات دارند و نه حوصله این کار را
یا کارگر هستند یا کشاورز
من مطمئا هستم از این تقریبا یک ملیونی که در خارج رای داده اند نوصد هزار نفر به موسوی رای داده اند
وقتی فلان شخص در خارج می بیند تمام دوست و اشنایان و اطرافیانش به موسوی رای داده اند
و در اخر احمدی نژاد دو برابر موسوی رای اورده حکما انتخابات را دروغ می داند
ولی همین شخص فکر نمی کند که ملیونها روستایی و فقیر به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند
و میاید و می گوید رای من کجاست ؟
از خودش نمی پرسد رای دیگران هم قابل احترام است
یک ملیونیر ایرانی که در ژنو زندگی میکند و ان فقیر روستایی که در ایذه زندگی میکند هر دو یک رای دارند
متشکرم
Interior Ministry releases provincial vote count
Iran's Interior Ministry has provided Press TV with the detailed list of votes cast in each province in the country's 10th presidential election held on Friday, June 12.
Ardabil Province
Total votes: 642,005
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 325,911
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,319
Mohsen Rezaei: 6, 578
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 302,825
Spoiled ballots: 4,372
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Ardabil with 140,582 to 137,220, Pilehsavar with 13,186 to 12,310, Pars-Abad with 48,521 to 31,453 and Garmi with 24,192 to 20,020.
Bushehr Province
Total votes: 493,989
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 299,357
Mehdi Karroubi: 3,563
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,607
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177,268
Spoiled ballots: 6,193
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the city of Ganaveh with 24,885 to 23,995.
Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Province
Total votes: 495,446
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 359,578
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,127
Mohsen Rezaei: 22,689
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 106,099
Spoiled ballots: 2,953
East-Azerbaijan
Total votes: 2,010,340
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,131,111
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,246
Mohsen Rezaei: 16,920
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 837,858
Spoiled ballots: 17,205
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the city of Shabestar with 39,182 to 37,099.
Fars Province
Total votes: 2,523,300
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,758,026
Mehdi Karroubi: 16,277
Mohsen Rezaei: 23,871
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 706,764
Spoiled ballots: 18,359
Gilan Province
Total votes: 1,483,258
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 998,573
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,183
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,022
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 453,806
Spoiled ballots: 11,674
Golestan Province
Total votes: 869,453
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 515,211
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,097
Mohsen Rezaei: 5,987
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 325,806
Spoiled ballots: 14,266
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Aqqala with 25,144 to 23,303, Bandar Torkaman with 36,794 to 18,577, Kalaleh with 28,740 to 23,894 and Maraveh Tappeh with 14,865 to 5,943.
Hamadan Province
Total votes: 1,019,169
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 765,723
Mehdi Karroubi: 12,032
Mohsen Rezaei: 13,117
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 218,481
Spoiled ballots: 9,816
Hormozgan Province
Total votes: 843,024
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 482,990
Mehdi Karroubi: 5,126
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,237
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 241,988
Spoiled ballots: 5,683
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of
Bastak with 21,607 to 8,407, Parsian with 11,882 to 6,752, Khamir with 14,943 to 8,263 and Qeshm with 27,884 to 23,020.
Ilam Province
Total votes: 312,667
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 199,654
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,471
Mohsen Rezaei: 5,221
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 96,826
Spoiled ballots: 3,495
Isfahan Province
Total votes: 2,637,482
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,799,255
Mehdi Karroubi: 14,579
Mohsen Rezaei: 51,788
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 746,697
Spoiled ballots: 25,162
Kerman Province
Total votes: 1,505,814
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,160,446
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,977
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,016
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 318,250
Spoiled ballots: 10,125
Kermanshah Province
Total votes: 983,422
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 573,568
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,798
Mohsen Rezaei: 11,258
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 374,188
Spoiled ballots: 13610
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Paveh with 12,114 to 8,841, Javanroud with 11,888 to 10,775, Dalaho with 15,104 to 8,384 and Ravansar with 10,662 to 8,544.
Khorasan Razavi Province
Total votes: 3,181,990
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2,214,801
Mehdi Karroubi: 13,561
Mohsen Rezaei: 44,809
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 884,570
Spoiled ballots: 24,240
In the city of Khaf, Moussavi won over Ahmadinejad with 30,835 votes over 28,493.
Khuzestan Province
Total votes: 2,038,845
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,303,129
Mehdi Karroubi: 15,934
Mohsen Rezaei: 139,124
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 552,636
Spoiled ballots: 28,022
Kohkilouye & Boyerahmad
Total votes: 368,707
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 253,962
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,274
Mohsen Rezaei: 8,542
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 98,937
Spoiled ballots: 2,311
Kurdistan Province
Total votes: 610,757
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 315,689
Mehdi Karroubi: 13,862
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,140
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 261,772
Spoiled ballots: 12,293
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Baneh with 23,745 to 16,552, Saqqez with 49,519 to 24,523 and Marivan with 29,902 to 20,404.
Markazi Province
Total votes: 785,961
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 572,988
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,675
Mohsen Rezaei: 10,057
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 190,349
Spoiled ballots: 7,889
Mazandaran Province
Total votes: 1,919838
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,289,257
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,050
Mohsen Rezaei: 19,587
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 585,373
Spoiled ballots: 15,571
North Khorasan Province
Total votes: 464,001
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 341,104
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,478
Mohsen Rezaei: 4,129
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 113,218
Spoiled ballots: 3,072
Qazvin Province
Total votes: 692,355
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 498,061
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,690
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,978
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177,542
Spoiled ballots: 6,084
Qom Province
Total votes: 599,040
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 422,457
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,314
Mohsen Rezaei: 16,297
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 148,467
Spoiled ballots: 9,505
Semnan Province
Total votes: 383,308
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 295,177
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,147
Mohsen Rezaei: 4,440
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 77,754
Spoiled ballots: 3,790
Sistan-Baluchistan Province
Total votes: 982,920
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 450,269
Mehdi Karroubi: 12,504
Mohsen Rezaei: 6,616
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 507,946
Spoiled ballots: 5,585
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Iranshahr with 50,971 to 33,802, Chabahar with 62,564 to 21,185, Khash with 47,762 to 9,945, Zaboli with 14,869 to 5,897, Zahedan with 140,118 to 120,978, Saravan with 47,620 to 13,258, Sibsouran with 18,314 to 7,456, Konarak with 18,467 to 9,089 and Nikshahr with 47,661 to 25909.
South Khorasan Province
Total votes: 383,157
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 285,983
Mehdi Karroubi: 928
Mohsen Rezaei: 3,962
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 90,363
Spoiled ballots: 1,920
Tehran Province
Total votes: 7,521,540
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3,819,945
Mehdi Karroubi: 67,334
Mohsen Rezaei: 147,487
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 3,371,523
Spoiled ballots: 115,701
In the cities of Tehran and Shemiranat, Moussavi beat Ahmadinejad with 2,166,245 votes to 1,809,855 and 200,931 to 102,433 votes respectively.
West-Azerbaijan Province
Total votes: 1,334,356
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 623,946
Mehdi Karroubi: 21,609
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,199
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 656,508
Spoiled ballots: 20,094
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Oshnavieh with 12,690 to 8,967, Bukan with 35,833 to 16,481, Piranshahr with 24,486 to 11,270, Sardasht with 18,654 to 16,737, Salmas with 47,276 to 43,652, Showt with 13,872 to 11,130, Mako with 28,451 to 13,884; Mahabad with 38,579 to 19,999, Miandoab with 55,739 to 55,575 and Naghadeh with 32,415 to 26,419.
Yazd Province
Total votes: 609,856
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 337,178
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,565
Mohsen Rezaei: 8,406
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 255,799
Spoiled ballots: 5,908
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of
Ardakan with 23,675 to 19,389, Sadooq with 11,399 to 10,755 and Yazd with 148,090 to 133,792.
Zanjan Province
Total votes: 585,721
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 444,480
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,223
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,276
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 126,561
Spoiled ballots: 5,181
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98177§ionid=351020101
Iran's Interior Ministry has provided Press TV with the detailed list of votes cast in each province in the country's 10th presidential election held on Friday, June 12.
Ardabil Province
Total votes: 642,005
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 325,911
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,319
Mohsen Rezaei: 6, 578
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 302,825
Spoiled ballots: 4,372
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Ardabil with 140,582 to 137,220, Pilehsavar with 13,186 to 12,310, Pars-Abad with 48,521 to 31,453 and Garmi with 24,192 to 20,020.
Bushehr Province
Total votes: 493,989
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 299,357
Mehdi Karroubi: 3,563
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,607
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177,268
Spoiled ballots: 6,193
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the city of Ganaveh with 24,885 to 23,995.
Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Province
Total votes: 495,446
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 359,578
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,127
Mohsen Rezaei: 22,689
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 106,099
Spoiled ballots: 2,953
East-Azerbaijan
Total votes: 2,010,340
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,131,111
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,246
Mohsen Rezaei: 16,920
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 837,858
Spoiled ballots: 17,205
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the city of Shabestar with 39,182 to 37,099.
Fars Province
Total votes: 2,523,300
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,758,026
Mehdi Karroubi: 16,277
Mohsen Rezaei: 23,871
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 706,764
Spoiled ballots: 18,359
Gilan Province
Total votes: 1,483,258
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 998,573
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,183
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,022
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 453,806
Spoiled ballots: 11,674
Golestan Province
Total votes: 869,453
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 515,211
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,097
Mohsen Rezaei: 5,987
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 325,806
Spoiled ballots: 14,266
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Aqqala with 25,144 to 23,303, Bandar Torkaman with 36,794 to 18,577, Kalaleh with 28,740 to 23,894 and Maraveh Tappeh with 14,865 to 5,943.
Hamadan Province
Total votes: 1,019,169
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 765,723
Mehdi Karroubi: 12,032
Mohsen Rezaei: 13,117
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 218,481
Spoiled ballots: 9,816
Hormozgan Province
Total votes: 843,024
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 482,990
Mehdi Karroubi: 5,126
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,237
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 241,988
Spoiled ballots: 5,683
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of
Bastak with 21,607 to 8,407, Parsian with 11,882 to 6,752, Khamir with 14,943 to 8,263 and Qeshm with 27,884 to 23,020.
Ilam Province
Total votes: 312,667
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 199,654
Mehdi Karroubi: 7,471
Mohsen Rezaei: 5,221
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 96,826
Spoiled ballots: 3,495
Isfahan Province
Total votes: 2,637,482
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,799,255
Mehdi Karroubi: 14,579
Mohsen Rezaei: 51,788
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 746,697
Spoiled ballots: 25,162
Kerman Province
Total votes: 1,505,814
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,160,446
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,977
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,016
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 318,250
Spoiled ballots: 10,125
Kermanshah Province
Total votes: 983,422
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 573,568
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,798
Mohsen Rezaei: 11,258
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 374,188
Spoiled ballots: 13610
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Paveh with 12,114 to 8,841, Javanroud with 11,888 to 10,775, Dalaho with 15,104 to 8,384 and Ravansar with 10,662 to 8,544.
Khorasan Razavi Province
Total votes: 3,181,990
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2,214,801
Mehdi Karroubi: 13,561
Mohsen Rezaei: 44,809
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 884,570
Spoiled ballots: 24,240
In the city of Khaf, Moussavi won over Ahmadinejad with 30,835 votes over 28,493.
Khuzestan Province
Total votes: 2,038,845
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,303,129
Mehdi Karroubi: 15,934
Mohsen Rezaei: 139,124
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 552,636
Spoiled ballots: 28,022
Kohkilouye & Boyerahmad
Total votes: 368,707
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 253,962
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,274
Mohsen Rezaei: 8,542
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 98,937
Spoiled ballots: 2,311
Kurdistan Province
Total votes: 610,757
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 315,689
Mehdi Karroubi: 13,862
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,140
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 261,772
Spoiled ballots: 12,293
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Baneh with 23,745 to 16,552, Saqqez with 49,519 to 24,523 and Marivan with 29,902 to 20,404.
Markazi Province
Total votes: 785,961
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 572,988
Mehdi Karroubi: 4,675
Mohsen Rezaei: 10,057
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 190,349
Spoiled ballots: 7,889
Mazandaran Province
Total votes: 1,919838
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,289,257
Mehdi Karroubi: 10,050
Mohsen Rezaei: 19,587
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 585,373
Spoiled ballots: 15,571
North Khorasan Province
Total votes: 464,001
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 341,104
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,478
Mohsen Rezaei: 4,129
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 113,218
Spoiled ballots: 3,072
Qazvin Province
Total votes: 692,355
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 498,061
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,690
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,978
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177,542
Spoiled ballots: 6,084
Qom Province
Total votes: 599,040
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 422,457
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,314
Mohsen Rezaei: 16,297
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 148,467
Spoiled ballots: 9,505
Semnan Province
Total votes: 383,308
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 295,177
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,147
Mohsen Rezaei: 4,440
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 77,754
Spoiled ballots: 3,790
Sistan-Baluchistan Province
Total votes: 982,920
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 450,269
Mehdi Karroubi: 12,504
Mohsen Rezaei: 6,616
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 507,946
Spoiled ballots: 5,585
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Iranshahr with 50,971 to 33,802, Chabahar with 62,564 to 21,185, Khash with 47,762 to 9,945, Zaboli with 14,869 to 5,897, Zahedan with 140,118 to 120,978, Saravan with 47,620 to 13,258, Sibsouran with 18,314 to 7,456, Konarak with 18,467 to 9,089 and Nikshahr with 47,661 to 25909.
South Khorasan Province
Total votes: 383,157
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 285,983
Mehdi Karroubi: 928
Mohsen Rezaei: 3,962
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 90,363
Spoiled ballots: 1,920
Tehran Province
Total votes: 7,521,540
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3,819,945
Mehdi Karroubi: 67,334
Mohsen Rezaei: 147,487
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 3,371,523
Spoiled ballots: 115,701
In the cities of Tehran and Shemiranat, Moussavi beat Ahmadinejad with 2,166,245 votes to 1,809,855 and 200,931 to 102,433 votes respectively.
West-Azerbaijan Province
Total votes: 1,334,356
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 623,946
Mehdi Karroubi: 21,609
Mohsen Rezaei: 12,199
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 656,508
Spoiled ballots: 20,094
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of Oshnavieh with 12,690 to 8,967, Bukan with 35,833 to 16,481, Piranshahr with 24,486 to 11,270, Sardasht with 18,654 to 16,737, Salmas with 47,276 to 43,652, Showt with 13,872 to 11,130, Mako with 28,451 to 13,884; Mahabad with 38,579 to 19,999, Miandoab with 55,739 to 55,575 and Naghadeh with 32,415 to 26,419.
Yazd Province
Total votes: 609,856
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 337,178
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,565
Mohsen Rezaei: 8,406
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 255,799
Spoiled ballots: 5,908
Mir-Hossein Moussavi won over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the cities of
Ardakan with 23,675 to 19,389, Sadooq with 11,399 to 10,755 and Yazd with 148,090 to 133,792.
Zanjan Province
Total votes: 585,721
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 444,480
Mehdi Karroubi: 2,223
Mohsen Rezaei: 7,276
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 126,561
Spoiled ballots: 5,181
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98177§ionid=351020101
It is interesting that Azeris (Musavi's ethinc minority) voted for Ahmadinejad twice as many as for Musavi . Also the poll predicted a 89% turn out wich is close.
. Also the poll predicted a 89% turn out wich is close. Source:http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/terror-free-tomorro-poll-did-not.html
Monday, June 15, 2009
Terror Free Tomorrow Poll Did not Predict Ahmadinejad Win
Noting my skepticism about the announced outcome of Friday's presidential elections in Iran, readers have been asking me what I think about this WaPo op-ed by Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty pointing out that a scientifically weighted Project for a Terror Free Tomorrow poll in mid-May found Ahmadinejad beating Mir-Hosain Mousavi by a 2 to 1 margin.
I have enormous respect for Ballen, PFTFT and Doherty & the New America Foundation.
But as a mere social historian I would say that the poll actually tends to confirm some of my doubts about the announced electoral tallies.
The poll did not find that Ahmadinejad had majority support. It found that the level of support for the incumbent was 34%, with Mousavi at 14%.
27% said that they were undecided. (Some 22% of respondents are not accounted for by any of the 4 candidates or by the undecided category, and I cannot find an explanation for this. Did they plan to write in for other candidates? A little over a quarter of respondents did say they wanted more choice than they were being given. Update: Some of this 22% refused to answer, others said they did not like any of the candidates. Ahmadinejad is unlikely to have picked up the latter, and Mousavi supporters were more likely to refuse to answer.)
Here's the important point: 60% of the 27% who said they were undecided favored political reform. As Ballen wrote at that time:
' A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate. More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.'
That is, supporters of the challenger's principles may not quite have committed to him at that point but were likely leaning to him on the basis of his platform. They were 16% of the sample. This finding suggests that in mid-May, Mousavi may have actually had 30% support.
If Ahmadinejad got all of the other 11% among undecideds, the race would have stood at 45% to 30%.
Ballen noted in May,
'The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, as things stand, Mr. Ahmadinejad and
Mr. Moussavi, is likely.'
Mr. Moussavi, is likely.'
That is, based on his polling, Ballen did not expect Ahmadinejad to get to 51%.
In fact, the regime has announced that Ahmadinejad received almost 63% of the vote. So while Ballen's polling does suggest that it was plausible that Ahmadinejad could have won a run-off election against Mousavi, it indicated that Ahmadinejad was unlikely to win a first round.
Moreover, given the PFTFT numbers, all of the undecideds would have had to vote for Ahmadinejad in order for him to get over 60% of the total vote. That outcome seems to me so statistically unlikely as to rate as an impossibility.
Note that the regime is not merely claiming that Ahmadinejad barely avoided a run-off by getting 51% of the vote. They are saying he received nearly two-thirds of the vote. No such outcome was predicted by the PFTFT poll-- quite the opposite.
So my commonsense, non-technical, historian's comment is that the poll may well have been sound, and Ballen's original conclusions may also have been. But the tenor of his WaPo article contradicts the poll in seeming to find a 63% margin of victory for Ahmadinejad plausible on the basis of it.
Particularly puzzling is that he seems to have forgotten his own observation that the race in May was closer than it seemed, since 60% of undecideds identified with reform principles.
Finally, 42% of respondents successfully contacted declined to answer the poll. Since it is much more likely that reformists would be afraid of government reprisal and afraid of talking about their politics than that Ahmadinejad supporters would be, the possibility that declines were disproportionately pro-Mousavi voters is strong. Although Ballen says voters were willing to answer controversial questions on press freedom or voting for the supreme leader, in fact these are vague and general issues. Imagine if a woman was pro-Mousavi and the phone rang when her husband, a pro-Ahmadinejad voter, was present. She might well just hang up rather than risk a domestic squabble. The decline rate strikes me as quite large, and of a sort that might well skew the results toward Ahmadinejad supporters.
I'm confused ! I thought Musavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami were/are part of the regime that according to you have their hands in blood of people of Iran. But I see the demostrators holding their pictures? so are you in the same line as those who are currenttly protesting or you just want to use this event to get back at the regime?
I'm confused ! I thought Musavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami were/are part of the regime that according to you have their hands in blood of people of Iran. But I see the demostrators holding their pictures? so are you in the same line as those who are currenttly protesting or you just want to use this event to get back at the regime?
Reza, we support the people who want their vote to be counted. Go ahead and ask yourself why this regime so brutal that they cannot even tolerate people like Khamati, Mousavi, Karoubi?