Poll predicted victory for Ahmadinejad

[Simply Ken]

This is the rebuttal of the poll you are relying on agha Reza by well respected Professor Juan Cole, read and enjoy :
Source:http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/terror-free-tomorro-poll-did-not.html
Monday, June 15, 2009

Terror Free Tomorrow Poll Did not Predict Ahmadinejad Win



Noting my skepticism about the announced outcome of Friday's presidential elections in Iran, readers have been asking me what I think about this WaPo op-ed by Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty pointing out that a scientifically weighted Project for a Terror Free Tomorrow poll in mid-May found Ahmadinejad beating Mir-Hosain Mousavi by a 2 to 1 margin.

I have enormous respect for Ballen, PFTFT and Doherty & the New America Foundation.

But as a mere social historian I would say that the poll actually tends to confirm some of my doubts about the announced electoral tallies.

The poll did not find that Ahmadinejad had majority support. It found that the level of support for the incumbent was 34%, with Mousavi at 14%.

27% said that they were undecided. (Some 22% of respondents are not accounted for by any of the 4 candidates or by the undecided category, and I cannot find an explanation for this. Did they plan to write in for other candidates? A little over a quarter of respondents did say they wanted more choice than they were being given. Update: Some of this 22% refused to answer, others said they did not like any of the candidates. Ahmadinejad is unlikely to have picked up the latter, and Mousavi supporters were more likely to refuse to answer.)

Here's the important point: 60% of the 27% who said they were undecided favored political reform. As Ballen wrote at that time:

' A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate. More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.'
​

That is, supporters of the challenger's principles may not quite have committed to him at that point but were likely leaning to him on the basis of his platform. They were 16% of the sample. This finding suggests that in mid-May, Mousavi may have actually had 30% support.

If Ahmadinejad got all of the other 11% among undecideds, the race would have stood at 45% to 30%.

Ballen noted in May,

'The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, as things stand, Mr. Ahmadinejad and
Mr. Moussavi, is likely.'
​

That is, based on his polling, Ballen did not expect Ahmadinejad to get to 51%.

In fact, the regime has announced that Ahmadinejad received almost 63% of the vote. So while Ballen's polling does suggest that it was plausible that Ahmadinejad could have won a run-off election against Mousavi, it indicated that Ahmadinejad was unlikely to win a first round.

Moreover, given the PFTFT numbers, all of the undecideds would have had to vote for Ahmadinejad in order for him to get over 60% of the total vote. That outcome seems to me so statistically unlikely as to rate as an impossibility.

Note that the regime is not merely claiming that Ahmadinejad barely avoided a run-off by getting 51% of the vote. They are saying he received nearly two-thirds of the vote. No such outcome was predicted by the PFTFT poll-- quite the opposite.

So my commonsense, non-technical, historian's comment is that the poll may well have been sound, and Ballen's original conclusions may also have been. But the tenor of his WaPo article contradicts the poll in seeming to find a 63% margin of victory for Ahmadinejad plausible on the basis of it.

Particularly puzzling is that he seems to have forgotten his own observation that the race in May was closer than it seemed, since 60% of undecideds identified with reform principles.

Finally, 42% of respondents successfully contacted declined to answer the poll. Since it is much more likely that reformists would be afraid of government reprisal and afraid of talking about their politics than that Ahmadinejad supporters would be, the possibility that declines were disproportionately pro-Mousavi voters is strong. Although Ballen says voters were willing to answer controversial questions on press freedom or voting for the supreme leader, in fact these are vague and general issues. Imagine if a woman was pro-Mousavi and the phone rang when her husband, a pro-Ahmadinejad voter, was present. She might well just hang up rather than risk a domestic squabble. The decline rate strikes me as quite large, and of a sort that might well skew the results toward Ahmadinejad supporters.

The editorial comments by a group that is on record as opposing the regime, and quite enjoying seeing the country go against one another, is less telling than an objective assessment of the numbers from their own poll.

With regard to the 60% of the "undecided" being pro-reform, lets just admit two things: first, Mousavi would not have gotten 13+ million votes if he didn't get a bulk of these people. Otherwise, he started with only 6 million voters (14%) in this poll. Second, while there are people who favor reforms who might Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle for the reforms they care about most than the coalition against him, the other 40% of the undecided who did not fall in that category would themselves number around 5 million. Just that 5 million plus the 16 million committed Ahmadinejad supporters from this poll would give him a majority.

Finally, those who refused to answer would actually include many more Ahmadinejad supporters than vice versa. The poll showed that 90% of those who did answer favored direct elections for Supreme Leader, so obviously most respondents were not shy about talking about the most taboo subjects here. But there are many simple minded and less educated people in Iran, from rural places and such, who support Ahmadinejad overwhelmingly but who are much more likely not to be vocal or articulate in their viewpoints and quite shy in expressing it.

Anway, the best way to resolve the issue is too look forward to a new poll by an internationally recognized polster with no biases for either side. This poll would ask how everyone actually voted.

 

[easymanesh]

متشکر جناب علی
بنده همانطور که گفتم بر این باور هستم که اکثریت قاطع ایرانیان خارج از کشور
انهایی که رای داده اند به موسوی رای داده اند
مثلا در ژنو بیش از هشتاد و پنج درصد به موسوی رای داده اند
و کمتر از ده درصد به احمدی نژاد
این رای دهندگان چیری حدود 900 نفر بوده اند
در صورتی که مثلا شهر گلستان بیش از هفتاد درصد به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند و تنها سی درصد به موسوی
این رای دهندگان تقریبا یک ملیون نفر بوده اند
خوب اگر بنده در ژنو باشم حتما میگویم در انتخابات تقلب شده
ولی ایا شخصی که در شهر گلستان است همین حرف را می زند ؟
خیر
به این دلیل است که اکثر دوستان ما که در خارج زندگی میکنند فکر میکنند موسوی بیشتر رای اورده
و بنده به انها حق میدهم

متشکرم

The problem is that the votes for Moosavi to A.N. outside Iran has been 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 in most places. However, if u look at the final votes outside Iran, this ratio is less than 3 to 2. It means that they have even cheated in this vote and same has happened across Iran.

Look at Aligoodarz, u expect A.N. to have less vote than Karroobi, but he has more vote than Karrobi+Moosavi+Rezaie.

Look at the R^2 of the first 6-7 results they announced. It is impossible to get such numbers. At the end they noticed that people have mentioned this proble, so they changed it in last 1 or 2 results a little bit.



In general, the pattern I saw in most states was dividing moosavi's result by 2, multiplying A.N. by 2. Also, removing Karrobi's vote.


You see a lot of mental problem in A.N.:
He not only changed the results, but also he wanted to prove to Karrobi and Hashemi that he has beaten them in their home town. No one with a little brain accepts that Karrobi gets less than 1%, but they wanted to humiliate Karrobi.
If he had given himself 19 to 20 million, he could have still won, but A.N. wanted to have more votes than Khatami. This guy has "Oghdeh Heghaarat". He does not want anyone smarter or more knowledgable than himself in his team.He wants people who see "Haalehye Noorani" around his head.
Believe me if he has a problem with the leader and he has the power, he will destroy him. This is something that the leadert does not understand.
Overal, He is a mini Hitler.

 

[Iranpaak]

Second, while there are people who favor reforms who might Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle for the reforms they care about most than the coalition against him, the other 40% of the undecided who did not fall in that category would themselves number around 5 million.

Dear Simply Ken, you can speculate anyway you want but I am afraid you are losing me. When people say they want reform, it is reform from the status quo, it means they want a change. Wanting the same guy who has been holding the office for the past four years is not reform, is it?

Second, tell me if you find it credible that we do not have 1% of the population who are not interested in receiving 70,000 tomans from the government.

 

[Simply Ken]

Dear Simply Ken, you can speculate anyway you want but I am afraid you are losing me. When people say they want reform, it is reform from the status quo, it means they want a change. Wanting the same guy who has been holding the office for the past four years is not reform, is it?

Second, tell me if you find it credible that we do not have 1% of the population who are not interested in receiving 70,000 tomans from the government.

Iranpaak jan,

Emotions are running high here on ISP, while there have always been a sizable number of people who have never been interested in reasoned argument anyway. In this atmosphere, it does become difficult to carry on a civil discussion, even with people who I respect a lot. Such as yourself. But let me explain how I see things:

On your first point, I know such people who favor reform but see Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle than the coalition against him. But the more important point is that based on this poll, the 27% were undecided (12.5 million) and 60% were in that category (6.25 million). Since Mousavi started with only 14% support (less than 6 million) according to this poll, even if he got all the 60% of the undecided who were supposedly pro-reform, he still would have less votes than his official tally of 13 million votes.

On your second point, I believe Karrubi did very poorly in the debates and lost most of his supporters (which were only 2% in this poll anyway) to Mousavi. Unlike you, I don't think there were many took Karrubi's promise seriously and those who might have were offered similar promises by the other candidates.

Anyway, while you are convinced about the fraud issue, I am not. More importantly, however, I know that the process to prove fraud should not be the one that I see in the allegations here. This is not the way to establish respect for the rule of law. The proper demands would focus on getting access to the ballots, to the underlying documentation relating to the votes cast in them, and to count the votes. And, if that is not good enough, to at least take a scientific poll of the population to have some prima facie evidence to prove Mousavi has more support than Ahmadinejad. This poll, at least based on the raw numbers, said the opposite.

 

[General Parsaian]

The problem is that the votes for Moosavi to A.N. outside Iran has been 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 in most places. However, if u look at the final votes outside Iran, this ratio is less than 3 to 2. It means that they have even cheated in this vote and same has happened across Iran.

Look at Aligoodarz, u expect A.N. to have less vote than Karroobi, but he has more vote than Karrobi+Moosavi+Rezaie.

Look at the R^2 of the first 6-7 results they announced. It is impossible to get such numbers. At the end they noticed that people have mentioned this proble, so they changed it in last 1 or 2 results a little bit.



In general, the pattern I saw in most states was dividing moosavi's result by 2, multiplying A.N. by 2. Also, removing Karrobi's vote.


You see a lot of mental problem in A.N.:
He not only changed the results, but also he wanted to prove to Karrobi and Hashemi that he has beaten them in their home town. No one with a little brain accepts that Karrobi gets less than 1%, but they wanted to humiliate Karrobi.
If he had given himself 19 to 20 million, he could have still won, but A.N. wanted to have more votes than Khatami. This guy has "Oghdeh Heghaarat". He does not want anyone smarter or more knowledgable than himself in his team.He wants people who see "Haalehye Noorani" around his head.
Believe me if he has a problem with the leader and he has the power, he will destroy him. This is something that the leadert does not understand.
Overal, He is a mini Hitler.

جناب
بنده همانطور که توضیح دادم فکر می کنم اکثر روستاییان و فقرا به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند
چنانکه اکثرین قاطع ایرانیان خارج از کشور به موسوی رای داده اند
برایتان یک مثال زدم و ان شهر ژنو در سوئیس است
تقریبا 900 نفر را داداه اند
از این نوصد نفر تنها 64 نفر به احمدی نژاد رای داده اند
و بقیه شهرهای خارج هم همینطور
ولی کل ارا در خارج چقدر بوده ؟ نزدیک به یک ملیون دو ملیون؟
در مورد انیکه میفرمایید چطور 24 ملیون رای اورده
بنده نمی دانم امکان دارد همانطور که شما می فرمایید مثلا 19 ملیون رای بیشتر نیاورده باشد و تقلب شده باشد
ولی من مطمئا هستم که بیش از سه کاندید دیگر رای اورده
من خودم وقتی از هر چه ایرانی کارگر و فقیر و زحمت کش تو این کویت است می پرسم به کی رای دادید
می گویند احمدی نژاد
از انهایی که شیک و پیک هستند و کلاس بالا هستند می پرسم به کی رای دادید می گویند موسوی
حالا شما بگیرید و بروید پیش ببینید ملت ایران که سوئد و نروژ نیست
توی ایران مثل نقل و نبات فقیرو بیچاره ریخته
این احمدی نژاد هم با این کفش پاره و صورت تیغ نزده و کت چروکش رای اینها را به جیب زده

متشکرم

 

[Iranpaak]

On your first point, I know such people who favor reform but see Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle than the coalition against him.

Dear Simply Ken, you say they find Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle than the coalition against him but do not explain on what basis. What has he done to reform anything tangible in the past 4 years? Are people better off today than four years so they would want to have four more years? If the answer to the above questions is yes, I must be badly blind not to see the evidence out there.
Please do not forget that Ahmadinejad has been campaigning for the past four years, while Mousavi's compaign got off the ground less than a month ago, the poll that REZA has posted was before Mousavi's campaign really got off the ground.

btw: I did not mean disrespect to you Simply Ken aziz and am sorry if I have come across harshly. I differ with you on this issue but have respect for you.

 

[Abedzaadeh]

2 x 2 = 24 million

 

[shahinc]

Guys, please stop responding to these few individuals who are propaganda mashine for the regime. Don't waste your time and energy with this. Please use it to spread the news !!! People in Iran need your help. I am talking to a firend of mine who was said there are ruomors that 5 university students were killed !!!! 100 's arrested last night and the lebas shakshi spoke arabic and ..... He begged me to spread the news and asked me to call news agencies and ..... Use the time to do these !!! These guys talking about our Rosta and Rostayee like it is Qjara era and these people are isolated. Our Rostayee has brain , our Rostaye has educated kids and families, and many of our rostayees are educated !!! Don't feed us the numbers from Vezarate Keshvar az proof for your arguments !!!

 

[RoozbehAzadi]

and the lebas shakshi spoke arabic

 

[Simply Ken]

Dear Simply Ken, you say they find Ahmadinejad a more credible vehicle than the coalition against him but do not explain on what basis. What has he done to reform anything tangible in the past 4 years? Are people better off today than four years so they would want to have four more years? If the answer to the above questions is yes, I must be badly blind not to see the evidence out there.
Please do not forget that Ahmadinejad has been campaigning for the past four years, while Mousavi's compaign got off the ground less than a month ago.

btw: I did not mean disrespect to you Simply Ken aziz and am sorry if I have come across harshly. I differ with you on this issue but have respect for you.

Iranpaak jan,

The important thing, in terms of accessing how people might vote, is not whether they are right or wrong in their beliefs. But that they do hold such beliefs in the first place.

As for your question about whether Iranians are better off now or 4 years ago, let me just quote from the report about the poll we are discussing.

More than one-third of Iranians said they would vote for Ahmadinejad, even though those who think the Iranian economy is headed in the right direction has dropped from 42% in a survey from a year ago to 33% in the latest survey. Yet, in potentially good news for President Ahmadinejad, Iranians do not seem to hold him responsible for the weakening economy. While a plurality sees the Iranian economy as declining, Iranian are evenly split on whether President Ahmadinejad’s policies have succeeded in reducing unemployment and inflation.

Similar to the previous polls, about one-third of Iranians think their personal economic situation got better after Ahmadinejad took office in 2005, while nearly half think it has remained the same. Yet, overall only 27% of Iranians think that Ahmadinejad was able to keep his pledge to share Iran’s oil revenues more fairly.

 

[R_E_Z_A]

The problem is that the votes for Moosavi to A.N. outside Iran has been 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 in most places. However, if u look at the final votes outside Iran, this ratio is less than 3 to 2. It means that they have even cheated in this vote and same has happened across Iran..

Detailed list of votes cast abroad in Iran election
Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:38:19 GMT

Press TV has obtained the Interior Ministry's detailed list of the votes cast abroad in the country's 10th presidential election held on Friday, June 12.

A total of 234,812 votes were cast outside Iran, out of which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won 78,300; Mehdi Karroubi won 4,647; Mohsen Rezaei won 3,635 and Mir-Hossein Moussavi won 111,792 votes.


New Zealand

Total votes: 338
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 69
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 249

North Korea

Total votes: 15
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 12
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 3


Hong Kong

Total votes: 61
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 12
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 51


Vietnam

Total votes: 14
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 12


Seoul

Total votes: 141
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 9
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 113

Islamabad

Total votes: 130
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 51
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 71
Spoiled ballots: 5,181

Shanghai

Total votes: 153
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 21
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 118

Colombo

Total votes: 39
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 16
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 21

Beijing

Total votes: 457
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 75
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 26
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 341

Quetta

Total votes: 74
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 39
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177,542

Peshawar

Total votes: 23
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 14
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8

Lahore

Total votes: 127
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 36
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 88


Bishkek

Total votes: 198
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 33
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 158

Kuala Lampur

Total votes: 4,861
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 430
Mehdi Karroubi: 224
Mohsen Rezaei: 105
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 4,065

Karachi

Total votes: 626
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 318
Mehdi Karroubi: 4
Mohsen Rezaei: 11
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 293

Dushanbe

Total votes: 654
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 132
Mehdi Karroubi: 12
Mohsen Rezaei: 13
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 485

Canberra

Total votes: 149
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 33
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 112

Melbourne

Total votes: 859
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 61
Mehdi Karroubi: 73
Mohsen Rezaei: 9
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 696

Sidney

Total votes: 1,353
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 146
Mehdi Karroubi: 72
Mohsen Rezaei: 20
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,108

Adelaide

Total votes: 261
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 40
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 200

Perth

Total votes: 367
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 28
Mehdi Karroubi: 31
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 301

Brisbane

Total votes: 476
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 40
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 200

Tashkent

Total votes: 484
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 42
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 137

Marv

Total votes: 56
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 19
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 37

Nakhchivan

Total votes: 95
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 36
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 56

Bangkok

Total votes: 345
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 75
Mehdi Karroubi: 9
Mohsen Rezaei: 18
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 238

Dhaka

Total votes: 40
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 20
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 18

Kandahar

Total votes: 14
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 5
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8

Astana

Total votes: 19
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 16

Akkol

Total votes: 128
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 46
Mehdi Karroubi: 4
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 71

Almaty

Total votes: 170
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 35
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 124

Kazakhstan mobile

Total votes: 26
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 6
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 18

Herat

Total votes: 180
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 77
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 9
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 88


Abuja

Total votes: 26
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 14

Manila

Total votes: 752
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 114
Mehdi Karroubi: 18
Mohsen Rezaei: 11
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 601

Trabzon

Total votes: 54
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 12
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 38

Addis Ababa

Total votes: 32
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 5
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 26

New Delhi

Total votes: 242
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 55
Mehdi Karroubi: 9
Mohsen Rezaei: 13
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 159

Chandigarh

Total votes: 37
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 8
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 27

Kabul

Total votes: 164
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 43
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 15
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 99

Zagreb

Total votes: 78
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 55

Astrakhan

Total votes: 125
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 34
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 82

Tokyo

Total votes: 1,050
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 172
Mehdi Karroubi: 40
Mohsen Rezaei: 27
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 799

Riyadh

Total votes: 79
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 30
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 43

Jerusalem (Al-Quds)

Total votes: 48
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 30
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 43

Nicosia

Total votes: 148
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 28
Mehdi Karroubi: 4
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 111

Limassol

Total votes: 59
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 14
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 40

Cyprus mobile

Total votes: 406
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 12
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 372

Yerevan

Total votes: 1,625
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 246
Mehdi Karroubi: 42
Mohsen Rezaei: 28
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,284

Tripoli

Total votes: 43
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 15
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 27

Bucharest

Total votes: 298
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 84
Mehdi Karroubi: 11
Mohsen Rezaei: 11
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 192

Kampala

Total votes: 25
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 22

Ashgabat

Total votes: 283
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 70
Mehdi Karroubi: 7
Mohsen Rezaei: 11
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 194

Mumbai

Total votes: 103
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 28
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 65

Imambara

Total votes: 555
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 96
Mehdi Karroubi: 14
Mohsen Rezaei: 21
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 424

Pune

Total votes: 445
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 51
Mehdi Karroubi: 22
Mohsen Rezaei: 12
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 353

Moscow

Total votes: 512
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 112
Mehdi Karroubi: 15
Mohsen Rezaei: 12
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 363

Dakar

Total votes: 47
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 11
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 29

Sofia

Total votes: 109
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 21
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 79

Varna

Total votes: 34
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 27

Baku

Total votes: 34
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 3
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 27

Geneva

Total votes: 658
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 68
Mehdi Karroubi: 28
Mohsen Rezaei: 21
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 539

Heydarabad

Total votes: 304
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 94
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 193

Heydarabad, Maisuru

Total votes: 439
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 44
Mehdi Karroubi: 19
Mohsen Rezaei: 13
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 353

Heydarabad mobile

Total votes: 490
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 59
Mehdi Karroubi: 29
Mohsen Rezaei: 9
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 389

Abidjan

Total votes: 31
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 19

Accra

Total votes: 50
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 13
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 27

Istanbul

Total votes: 1,452
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 243
Mehdi Karroubi: 27
Mohsen Rezaei: 19
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,148

Sulaymaniyah

Total votes: 199
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 54
Mehdi Karroubi: 9
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 130

Arbil

Total votes: 693
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 242
Mehdi Karroubi: 24
Mohsen Rezaei: 10
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 414

Dublin

Total votes: 172
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 25
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 135

Copenhagen

Total votes: 603
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 131
Mehdi Karroubi: 29
Mohsen Rezaei: 12
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 427

Budapest

Total votes: 372
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 24
Mehdi Karroubi: 20
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 316

Szeged

Total votes: 86
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 70

Pêche

Total votes: 60
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 55

Oslo

Total votes: 524
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 82
Mehdi Karroubi: 29
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 407

Trondheim

Total votes: 94
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 83

Brussels

Total votes: 1,059
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 146
Mehdi Karroubi: 57
Mohsen Rezaei: 15
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 824

Luxemburg

Total votes: 149
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 11
Mehdi Karroubi: 7
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 128

Dubai

Total votes: 2,1937
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7,100
Mehdi Karroubi: 355
Mohsen Rezaei: 386
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 13,988

Sarajevo

Total votes: 78
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 38
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 32

Bahrain

Total votes: 511
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 329
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 177

Munich

Total votes: 925
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 114
Mehdi Karroubi: 37
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 765

Khartoum

Total votes: 68
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 24
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 37

Doha

Total votes: 4,287
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 2,657
Mehdi Karroubi: 26
Mohsen Rezaei: 52
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,505

Abu Dhabi

Total votes: 2,589
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,883
Mehdi Karroubi: 27
Mohsen Rezaei: 32
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,320

Al Ain

Total votes: 1,135
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 480
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 628

Rome

Total votes: 675
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 85
Mehdi Karroubi: 20
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 554

Milan

Total votes: 821
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 105
Mehdi Karroubi: 21
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 673

Beirut

Total votes: 736
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 422
Mehdi Karroubi: 11
Mohsen Rezaei: 20
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 275

Beirut mobile

Total votes: 139
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 77
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 56

Beirut mobile II

Total votes: 149
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 133
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 11

Bern

Total votes: 278
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 25
Mehdi Karroubi: 23
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 222

Zurich

Total votes: 321
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 33
Mehdi Karroubi: 12
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 269

Cairo

Total votes: 111
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 41
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 67

Minsk

Total votes: 233
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 19
Mehdi Karroubi: 4
Mohsen Rezaei: 9
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 198

Helsinki

Total votes: 189
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 31
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 150

Tunisia

Total votes: 35
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 11
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 18

Ankara

Total votes: 723
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 103
Mehdi Karroubi: 21
Mohsen Rezaei: 10
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 583

Vienna

Total votes: 1,933
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 240
Mehdi Karroubi: 104
Mohsen Rezaei: 35
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,540

Graz

Total votes: 248
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 23
Mehdi Karroubi: 14
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 205

Athens

Total votes: 346
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 93
Mehdi Karroubi: 16
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 223

Karbala

Total votes: 6,282
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10,634
Mehdi Karroubi: 64
Mohsen Rezaei: 218
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,705

Berlin

Total votes: 1,525
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 197
Mehdi Karroubi: 67
Mohsen Rezaei: 21
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,236

Hamburg

Total votes: 2,514
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 370
Mehdi Karroubi: 96
Mohsen Rezaei: 34
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,008

Santiago

Total votes: 34
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 4
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 30

Damascus

Total votes: 10,378
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7,184
Mehdi Karroubi: 60
Mohsen Rezaei: 153
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,866

Paris

Total votes: 3,146
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 285
Mehdi Karroubi: 181
Mohsen Rezaei: 40
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,614

Jeddah

Total votes: 2,122
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,070
Mehdi Karroubi: 12
Mohsen Rezaei: 45
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 929

Mecca

Total votes: 19,264
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 11,131
Mehdi Karroubi: 110
Mohsen Rezaei: 251
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 7,690

Medina

Total votes: 23,293
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 13,863
Mehdi Karroubi: 148
Mohsen Rezaei: 501
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8,346

Brasilia

Total votes: 36
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 4
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 31

Sao Paolo

Total votes: 26
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 6
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 18

Kyiv

Total votes: 602
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 77
Mehdi Karroubi: 16
Mohsen Rezaei: 15
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 490

Kyiv mobile

Total votes: 380
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 54
Mehdi Karroubi: 20
Mohsen Rezaei: 8
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 292

Kharkiv

Total votes: 293
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 41
Mehdi Karroubi: 17
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 223

Bogota

Total votes: 45
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 20
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 24

London

Total votes: 10,203
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,482
Mehdi Karroubi: 446
Mohsen Rezaei: 220
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8,016

Conakry

Total votes: 14
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 6
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8

Tbilisi

Total votes: 104
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 39
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 61

Sana'a

Total votes: 87
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 31
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 50

Nairobi

Total votes: 74
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 21
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 48

Pretoria

Total votes: 229
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 26
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 187

Mozambique

Total votes: 18
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 4
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 14

Lisbon

Total votes: 75
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 14
Mehdi Karroubi: 9
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 46

Baghdad

Total votes: 1,384
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 972
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 30
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 346

Tirana

Total votes: 23
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 5
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 15

Caracas

Total votes: 386
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 66
Mehdi Karroubi: 5
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 309

Mexico

Total votes: 47
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 3
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 25

Jakarta

Total votes: 124
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 53
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 64

Stockholm

Total votes: 1,947
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 270
Mehdi Karroubi: 158
Mohsen Rezaei: 31
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,507

Prague

Total votes: 144
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10
Mehdi Karroubi: 25
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 103

New York

Total votes: 16,789
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 1,880
Mehdi Karroubi: 682
Mohsen Rezaei: 184
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 13,937

Warsaw

Total votes: 81
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 13
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 62

Monte Video

Total votes: 15
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 6
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 0
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 8

Havanna

Total votes: 17
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 7

Belgrade

Total votes: 60
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 25
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 3
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 30

Amman

Total votes: 62
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 20
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 2
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 40

Frankfurt

Total votes: 2,224
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 290
Mehdi Karroubi: 88
Mohsen Rezaei: 18
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,818

Bonn

Total votes: 2,071
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 221
Mehdi Karroubi: 115
Mohsen Rezaei: 19
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 1,707

Frankfurt Airport

Total votes: 350
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 54
Mehdi Karroubi: 8
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 283

Algiers

Total votes: 63
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 26
Mehdi Karroubi: 1
Mohsen Rezaei: 5
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 28

Muscat

Total votes: 487
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 236
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 16
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 225

Kuwait

Total votes: 11721
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7325
Mehdi Karroubi: 79
Mohsen Rezaei: 392
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2837

Madrid

Total votes: 517
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 76
Mehdi Karroubi: 24
Mohsen Rezaei: 7
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 405


Ottawa

Total votes: 3046
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 199
Mehdi Karroubi: 201
Mohsen Rezaei: 41
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2590

Singapore

Total votes: 260
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 17
Mehdi Karroubi: 35
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 204

Basra

Total votes: 946
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 734
Mehdi Karroubi: 6
Mohsen Rezaei: 14
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 165

Managua

Total votes: 74
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 21
Mehdi Karroubi: 0
Mohsen Rezaei: 4
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 48

Harare

Total votes: 48
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 7
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 1
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 36

SBB/TE/MMN

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98206...ionid=351020101

 

[Ali(ISP)]

WTF

Islamabad

Total votes: 130
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 51
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 71
Spoiled ballots: 5,181

 

[Foo]

Karbala:
Total votes: 6,282
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10,634
Mehdi Karroubi: 64
Mohsen Rezaei: 218
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,705

....??

And I'm missing The Hague (Holland)? (Maybe I don't see it lol)..I can tell u however that quite a few people voted, and the end result was 80% Mousavi, 14% AN

 

[lordofmordor]

I remember Sadam getting 98% of the votes. A fascist government can and will never be trusted. Regime supporters can try, but IR lost its credibility and will never be the same.

 

[R_E_Z_A]

WTF

Islamabad

Total votes: 130
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 51
Mehdi Karroubi: 2
Mohsen Rezaei: 6
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 71
Spoiled ballots: 5,181

LOL

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Ignore this thread please.

Stop giving more exposure to non-sense. Focus on the ongoing events.

 

[R_E_Z_A]

I remember Sadam getting 98% of the votes. A fascist government can and will never be trusted. Regime supporters can try, but IR lost its credibility and will never be the same.

Aziz jan from what I have read for years here the regime had no credibility to begin with. So whats new?

 

[Kaz]

This is not even a debate. The election was fraudulent. If it wasn't the regime would not have even considered revocation of the result. The shit hit the fan, and everybody knows it.

 

[Abedzaadeh]

Karbala:
Total votes: 6,282
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 10,634
Mehdi Karroubi: 64
Mohsen Rezaei: 218
Mir-Hossein Moussavi: 2,705

....??

yes....this is the case in most provinces in Iran!

 

[Farsi Zaban]

...