In alphabetical order among the top 3 candidates:
1) Moin
2) Qalibaf
3) Rafsanjani
4) Other
My prediction for whatever it is worth:
1st Round:
a) Turnout: 55% (some polls show much higher likely turnout, but I will stick with my earlier prediction of 55%)
b) No one would win over 50%, forcing a runoff
c) Top 2 will be Rafsanjani and Qalibaf in the first round
2nd Round:
a) Turnout: 45%
b) Winner: Qalibaf (55%) v. Rafsanjani (45%)
One final point. Iran's elections are difficult to predict, and even the polls show the numbers are fluid and the race is very close. The voters could pull of a surprise, and while my predictions are based on the polls I have seen, somehow I wouldn't be shocked if come election day we have a winner even in the first round. There are a lot of "soft votes" and "undecided" voters and if turnout is high (one poll by IRIB predicts a very high turnout in the 70% range), we might end up with a real surprise.
1) Moin
2) Qalibaf
3) Rafsanjani
4) Other
My prediction for whatever it is worth:
1st Round:
a) Turnout: 55% (some polls show much higher likely turnout, but I will stick with my earlier prediction of 55%)
b) No one would win over 50%, forcing a runoff
c) Top 2 will be Rafsanjani and Qalibaf in the first round
2nd Round:
a) Turnout: 45%
b) Winner: Qalibaf (55%) v. Rafsanjani (45%)
One final point. Iran's elections are difficult to predict, and even the polls show the numbers are fluid and the race is very close. The voters could pull of a surprise, and while my predictions are based on the polls I have seen, somehow I wouldn't be shocked if come election day we have a winner even in the first round. There are a lot of "soft votes" and "undecided" voters and if turnout is high (one poll by IRIB predicts a very high turnout in the 70% range), we might end up with a real surprise.