The battle for Kobani (Very important for both sides and many others involved)

May 9, 2004
15,168
179
That was 3 years ago. I know them better now and I changed my mind. Gotta problem with that? Anybody with a gun in that part of the world is suspect, including Assad. Let them fight it out. Oh, and pass the popcorn.
یعنی سه سال طول کشید تا درک کنی جیش الحر و النصره ادمهای خوبی نیستند ؟
میدونی چرا؟
چون سه سال پیش توی اخباری که تو می شونی و همه رو قبول میکنی می گفتند النصره ادمهای خوبی هستند و فریدوم فایتر هستند
الان توی اخبارها در رسانه ها می گویند ادمهای بدی هستند و بد گایز هستند
به همین خاطر تو که طوطی وار هر چیزی را که می شونی تکرار میکنی و از خودت تحلیل و تفسیری نداری نظرت بر گشت
حالا اگر این رسانه هادو سال دیگه بگویند داعش خوب است تبلیغات مثبت در مورد ان بکنند
همین جنابعالی می ایی و از مرام داعش دفاع میکنی
یکی مثل جنابعالی تحت تاثیر رسانه ها قرار میکیرید هرچه گفتند تکرار میکنی
انروز که ما برایت عکس می زدیم که یکی از افراد جیش الحر داره قلب یک سرباز سوریه را می خورد تو حرف ما را قبول نمی کردی و به هر طریقی بود
می خواستی از انها دفاع کنی
الان شدند بد گایز ؟
انزمانی که ما می گفتیم قذافی با اینکه یکتاتوراست صد رحمت دارد به این اسلامگرایانی که بر علیه او قیام کرده اند
تو و امثال تو به من خرده میگرفتید که از یک دیکتاتور خون اشام دفاع میکنم الان برو ببین لیبی به چه روزی افتاده
انزمانی که گفتم حسنی مبارک صد شرف دارد به اخوان المسلمین و این تظاهر کنندگان از سکولارشون گرفته تا کمونیست شون
تو و امثال تو برای انها چهچه و به به می زدید
که بله بعد از حسنی مبارک نوبت خامنه ای است و من که از او دفاع میکردم از سقوط خامنه ای می ترسم که بعد از حسنی مبارک حتمی است
وقتی از اسد در برابر این خون اشامان از جمله همین داعش دفاع میکردم شما انها را مردم سوریه و انقلابیون لقب می دادید
الان چه شده که نظرت تغییر کرد ؟
هیچ
رسانه ها خبرها را به تو به شکلی دیگر می رسانند
داعش بد شد النصره بد شد
اخوان المسلمین بد شدند انقلاب لیبی بد شد
بد شدند چون نتوانستند مقاصد این رسانه ها را پیاده کنند نتوانستند اسد را سرنگون کنند و مشکل ساز شدند
والا همان داعش و همان النصره هستند
به همین خاطر تغییر ارای عمومی بر علیه یک جریان با وجود اشخاصی مثل تو بسیار بسیار کار اسانی است
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
0
United States
If you stop dancing and singing I'll explain. I never supported Nusra or anything associated with Al-Qaeda. The make up of the opposition 3 years ago is not what it is today. ISIS did not even exist back then. ISIS branched off from Nusra. The rebellion started with a breakaway arm of the Syrian army. They were the first armed resistance. They were called the FSA. I saw the removal of Assad and its replacement with a democratically a positive development. It would cut Hezbollah off and keep IR in its place. If you can think of a scenario that would give us that result I am still for it. My mistake was to trust Obama. The guy is not capable of it. You hand him a quiet Iraq and this is what we get. So now I don't trust anyone with a gun in that part of the word. They are all criminals. The only armed force I trust are the US Army and Marines but the days of them shedding blood for a bunch of crazies are over. They gotta do it themselves.

Now, let me turn the table on you. From the beginning I said Hezbollah have dug their own graves by getting involved and now you see that is what is happening. Forget saving Damascus. They are now fighting inside Lebanon and that is just the beginning. They are overstretched. They are in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and they are out of breath. They entered the war to keep their lines to Iran open. Now they are boxed in. Their land routes to Iran are blocked. They are stuck between ISIS and Nusra on on e side and the sea. There are a lot more Sunnis that Shia and it is only getting worse.

You know all this but look the other way. That is not to build credibility.
 
May 9, 2004
15,168
179
If you stop dancing and singing I'll explain. I never supported Nusra or anything associated with Al-Qaeda. The make up of the opposition 3 years ago is not what it is today. ISIS did not even exist back then. ISIS branched off from Nusra. The rebellion started with a breakaway arm of the Syrian army. They were the first armed resistance. They were called the FSA. I saw the removal of Assad and its replacement with a democratically a positive development. It would cut Hezbollah off and keep IR in its place. If you can think of a scenario that would give us that result I am still for it. My mistake was to trust Obama. The guy is not capable of it. You hand him a quiet Iraq and this is what we get. So now I don't trust anyone with a gun in that part of the word. They are all criminals. The only armed force I trust are the US Army and Marines but the days of them shedding blood for a bunch of crazies are over. They gotta do it themselves.

Now, let me turn the table on you. From the beginning I said Hezbollah have dug their own graves by getting involved and now you see that is what is happening. Forget saving Damascus. They are now fighting inside Lebanon and that is just the beginning. They are overstretched. They are in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and they are out of breath. They entered the war to keep their lines to Iran open. Now they are boxed in. Their land routes to Iran are blocked. They are stuck between ISIS and Nusra on on e side and the sea. There are a lot more Sunnis that Shia and it is only getting worse.

You know all this but look the other way. That is not to build credibility.
جناب
نگاه کن ان تریدی که باز شد بوسیله بی هنر در اولین پست های ان ما از جبهه النصره که پدر همین داعش است حرف می زدیم
و تاریخ یک سال و نیم پیش
انزمان تو می امدی و از اینها طرفداری می کردی
نگو نمیکردم پست های تو هنوز موجود است که چطور برای تصرف کردن شهرهای سوریه بوسیله اینها هورا میکشیدی
و به قول خودت انتظار یک حکومت دمکراتیک از طرف اینها را داشتی
انزمان همه می دانستند که النصره شاخه ای از القاعده است و دوش به دوش ارتش الحر بر علیه رژیم سوریه می جنگد
نگو من نمیگفتم بگو فریب خورده بودم و هرچه رسانه های غربی می گفتند باور میکردم
بگو باور میکردم که النصره خوب است
الان که رسانه های غربی تغییر مسیر دادند تو هم تغییر نظر دادی
به این پست من نگاه کن این پست شماره 54 است مال تقریبا دو سال پیش از ترید بی هنر
هر دو گروه
هم رژیم سوریه هم این تروریست هایی که اسم خودشان را ارتش ازاد و جهاد و نصره و گردان عمر و گردان معاویه گذاشتند قاتل و امد کش هستند
مگه همین ها یک هفته پیش در دمشق یک ماشین رو منفجر نکردند شصت هفتاد نفر کشته شدند
و دو هفته پیش کنار یک مدرسه بمب گذاری کردند و کودکان را کشتند جرمشان این بود که بین انها بچه های چند افسر ارتش بودند
نگاه کن ببین چه کارها می کردن انوقت تو از اینها طرفداری میکردی
نگو نمی کردم
این چند پست از پست های تو در ان ترید است
Man, let these rebels gain power.
Quote Originally Posted by shahinc View Post
U.S. considers military strike on Syria

But, but, but...Iran said don't attack Syria. What to do, what to do?
Assad's fall will hurt IR and Hezbollah instantly. Extremists coming to power in Syria can be dealt with later.
Let me help you out. You can't put the Genie back in the bottle. There is a civil war in Syria. What do YOU want done? Do not help the Islamists...I get that, do what then?
Man is known by the company he keeps. Look at Assad's buddies: IR, Hezbollah, Russian. What a bunch of luminaries.
می بینی ؟
مثلا وقتی میگویی رفقای اسد حزب الله و ایران و روسیه هستند یعنی چه؟
یعنی جنابعالی در صف دشمنان اسد هستید
یعنی در صف جبهه النصره و القاعده بودید
و چنانکه برات پست های قبل از این پست های شما را زدم من و شما می دانستیم که جبهه النصره شاخه ای از القاعده است
حالا برویم سر موضوع حزب الله ؟
تو میگفتی حزب الله در بین صدها هزار سنی زندگی میکند و لبنان را زیر پایش به اتش می کشند ؟
فعلا که حزب الله در لبنان هیچ مزاحمتی برایش ایجاد نشده
این ارتش لبنان است که در طرابلس با چهل پنجاه نفر از تروریست ها که اکثرا سوری و غیر لبنانی بودند جنگیده و همه را تار و مار کرد و 12 کشته داد
این گروها قبل از دخالت حزب الله در سوریه هم بودند و اگر یادت رفته یادت بیاورم که شش هفت سال پیش همین ها در اردوگاه نهر البارد هم با ارتش لبنان جنگیدند
و اصلا هیچ کاری به دخالت حزب الله در سوریه ندارد
برعکس این حزب الله بوده که با تصرف مرزهای لبنان و سوریه و پاکسازی ان مناطق توانسته از ورد اینها به لنبنا و نفوذ انها جلوگیری کند
در صورتی که می بینیم اینها در عراق دها شهر و شهرک را گرفته اند و جولان می دهند در سوریه هم همینطور
و انجا یعنی در عراق نسبت سنی ها نسبت به شیعه خیلی کمتر از سنی های لبنان نسبت به شیعیان ان است
اگر بروی تریدهای خودت را بخوانی خواهی دید که چه اشتباه بزرگی میکردی
وفکر میکردی این دخالت حزب الله در سوریه باعث می شود که حزب در لبنان ضربه بخورد
در صورتی که صد در صد برعکس شد
یعنی این دخالت حزب الله باعث جلوگیری از نفوذ این تروریست ها به لبنان شد
مسیحیان که اکثریت جمعیت لبنان را نسبت به بقیه طوایف تشکیل می دهند به حزب الله نزدیکتر شوند
همچنین می بینیم دروز که در راس انها ولید جنبلاط است از دشمن سرسخت حزب الله به دوست حزب الله و طرفدار حزب الله تبدیل شده
و بقول او و دیگر کسانی که تا چند سال پیش دشمن سرسخت حزب الله بودند اگر حزب الله نبود لبنان طعمه داعش می شد
همین دو هفته پیش بود که بشاره راعی کاردینال مسیحیان لبنان گفت اگر دخالت حزب الله در سوریه نبود الان تروریست های داعش به جونیه رسیده بودند
جونیه بزرگترین شهر مسیحی نشین لبنان است
خوب این چیزها را که تو نمی خوانی
فقط شنیدی در طرابلس چهل پنجاه نفر که تقریبا همه انها غیر لبنانی بودند را ارتش لبنان محاصر کرد و از بین برد
فکر میکنی برای حزب الله مشکل ساز شده اند در صورتی که خونی از بینی یک حزب اللهی در این درگیری ها نیامد و اصلا یک حزب اللهی در این درگیری ها دخالتی نداشت
نصیحت من به تو : برو اخبار را بجز از کانالهایی که می شونی از بقیه کانالها هم بشنو
تا فردا اگر این رسانه هایی که تو از انها همه معلوماتت را می گیری و باور میکنی تغییر جهت دادند حداقل به این شکل تغییر جهت ندهی
که یکبارتوی جبهه این یکبار در جبهه ان قرار بگیری


بله جانم
 

OSTAD POOYA

National Team Player
Jan 26, 2004
4,678
426

مسیحیان که اکثریت جمعیت لبنان را نسبت به بقیه طوایف تشکیل می دهند به حزب الله نزدیکتر شوند
همچنین می بینیم دروز که در راس انها ولید جنبلاط است از دشمن سرسخت حزب الله به دوست حزب الله و طرفدار حزب الله تبدیل شده
و بقول او و دیگر کسانی که تا چند سال پیش دشمن سرسخت حزب الله بودند اگر حزب الله نبود لبنان طعمه داعش می شد
همین دو هفته پیش بود که بشاره راعی کاردینال مسیحیان لبنان گفت اگر دخالت حزب الله در سوریه نبود الان تروریست های داعش به جونیه رسیده بودند
جونیه بزرگترین شهر مسیحی نشین لبنان است


I have to say that the way ISIS have gone after Christians and other minorities has surely brought the Christian community of Lebanon close to Hezbollah and this is not a matter of them wanting to but rather being forced to it as they are the lesser of two evils and naturally would defend their territory which those Christians live under. The matter is complicated as where everyone’s loyalty and interest lies but because of the complexity and the number of groups involved alliances and hostilities can be broken or established based on this scenario. So yes currently the Christians have gotten closer to Hezbollah as being forced to have that play but it can change with ISIS getting weaker or some other even taking place which can change loyalties again.
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
Ostaad tamaam harf haai in baba maghlate o safsatast. ISIS terrorists have no business in Lebanon, they are not after lebanon its irrelevant to them. What they are after however is Syria and those hezbollah terrorists are an obstacle for them to secure the southern parts of Syria. They have no particular beef with christians compared to the beef they have with shiites. Christians are part of collateral damage while the shiites and alevites are considered primary enemies. When you add everything up, you cant ignore the fact that ISIS wouldnt even touch Lebanon if it wasnt for the hezbollah support for Syria. Any Lebanese who really things he has to cooperate with those hezbollah terrorists to fight ISIS, is short sighted. He simply doesnt see that Hezbollah created and fed by the IR, is a cancerous entity that always brought war to lebanon, a war that no lebanese really wanted besides of hezbollah alone. They drag that country into wars with Israel and as a result the lebanese as a country suffer. They now drag the lebanese into another conflict that they actually dont want to get involved in but now they have because that hezbollah cancer is part of lebanese body and they dont seem to be able to do anything about it. Lebanon is not a target of ISIS as there are only 25% sunnis and even they do not belong to the extremist ones. Its nothing to gain there among all those christians and shiites. They fight them because of hezbollah and that poor lebanese army automatically gets involved in a conflict between ISIS and Hezbollah which they would love to keep themselves out of.
 

Chinaski

Elite Member
Jun 14, 2005
12,269
352
BT jaan, sorry but aside from the point that he raises about the elimination and banning of Baath party, its more or less complete bullshit in my opinion. It starts with the shit that the guy believes the whole thing in the middle east has been results of poor decision making and mistakes. The guy is naive as it gets but i dont blame him he is among the majority with what he believes. The guy says "US lost iraq to iran". This is a complete joke. US doesnt lose anything to anyone if it doesnt intend to lose it. I dont want to sound arrogant BT jaan, believe me but the guy hasnt read hundreths of what i have read about the whole middle east so he simply lacks knowledge. plain and simple. The americans didnt ban Baath without knowing about the consequences. The americans didnt adviced that puppet iraqi government to implement an islamic constitution replacing the secular one of Saddam without knowing what they were doing. The americans did not leave the country without knowing what was about to happen in their absent. Believe me the US has not become the greatest power on earth by doing mistake after mistake. they think several steps ahead of the most intelligent analysts who only can analyse things after things have happened. The good ones, take the past, the present and can imagine what was the reason for the US to do this and that. So US didnt lose Iraq to Iran, the US GAVE iraq to iran. They have already did their best to get the iraqis weakened through the war khomeini imposed on them but it didnt go as well as they thought it would so they eventually had to do the job on him by invading his country. Believe me, we iranians might not like it but Saddam was the toughest nut to crack. The former US representative in Iraq once said: The Iraqis are the toughest son of the bitches in the middle east and the Iranians are the best negotiatiors. Many iranians would like that statement but i dont. I am sorry that we iranians are known as foxes, as sneaky, as people who laugh in your face but you never know what they really think while the iraqis have a reputation of being tough, uncompromissing, straight and people who would come up and fight if needed. Taking out Saddam was the primary goal of the US Admin for quite some time and plans of crushing the secular Baath party has been even older. The US plans never failed in the middle east. People who still think all those miseries are result of US mistakes are the naive ones who assume the US actually is after peace and stability. When we get rid of this saga and myth, we understand, the US are not doing any mistake because this is the result they have been working for since the early 70s. Its there to read. They are systematically getting rid of all secular governments infavour of islamist. From Pakistan and Afghanistan to north africa, they are leaving a clear pattern to follow their intentions and people still dont want to get it. Iraq needed to be fucked. Completely fucked and they have achieved it. It was one heck of a ambitious country. Saddam realized several huge developing plans in iraq, he made the iraqi dinar become one of the strongest currencies in the world. One Dinar was equal of 4 dollars. He realized huge building projects, dams, industry, petrochemie,...he made things happen. BT jaan, be jaane maadaram, we iranian soldiers didnt even have Shaving creams to shave ourselves and do you know where we did get them? From Iraq. One of the best shaving creams we got was an iraqi brand and i still remember its colors. It was like khamir dandoon tube, it was white with decent golden and black lines covering it. Iraqis manufactured a lot of good stuff and iranians even during the war prefered them to some of our own products. A lot of things about that country is overshadowed by lies. An arab saying once said: Arab books get written in Cairo, printed in Beirut and read in Baghdad. Those people had achieved a very respectable standard of living under Saddam. Saddam was bigger to Iraq than Shah to us. Thats reality. Now the whole country is a single toilet. They intentionally made sure this once ambitious country went down the gutter completely and i think for good.
 
May 9, 2004
15,168
179
I have to say that the way ISIS have gone after Christians and other minorities has surely brought the Christian community of Lebanon close to Hezbollah and this is not a matter of them wanting to but rather being forced to it as they are the lesser of two evils and naturally would defend their territory which those Christians live under. The matter is complicated as where everyone’s loyalty and interest lies but because of the complexity and the number of groups involved alliances and hostilities can be broken or established based on this scenario. So yes currently the Christians have gotten closer to Hezbollah as being forced to have that play but it can change with ISIS getting weaker or some other even taking place which can change loyalties again.
خیر جناب استاد
اگر شما به تاریخچه حزب الله و رابطه ان با مسیحیان و دیگر طوایف لبنان نگاه کنید می بینید که دید حزب یک دید سیاسی است و اصلا طایفه ای نیست
حتی در بین شیعیان لبنان بسیاری هستند که با حزب الله مخالف هستند
و بسیاری از طوایف دیگر از جمله مسیحیان قبل از داعش هم با حزب رابطه خوبی داشته اند
اگر تحقیق می کردید می دیدید که قوی ترین حزب مسیحی لبنان سالها قبل از بوجود امدن داعش
از طرفداران حزب الله بوده اند و هستند
ولی این که می گویم نزدیک تر شده اند به این معنا است که بسیاری از مسیحیانی که در احزاب دیگر مسیحی بودند و از نظر سیاسی با حزب مخالف بوده اند
به این حزب نزدیک شده اند
و چنانکه گفتم رابطه حزب با بقیه احزاب هیچوقت طائفه ای نبوده بلکه کاملا سیاسی عمل کرده اند
به همین خاطر می بینید که برخی از سنی ها طرفدار حزب الله هستند
و یا مسیحیان وبقیه
یا مثلا در جایی می بینیم حزب الله از همین سلفی ها و وهابیون دفاع می کند
 

ChaharMahal

Elite Member
Oct 18, 2002
16,563
261
These Matters can not be really oversimplified. It is kind of like a rubiks cube.
moving one piece misplaces the other. It is really not possible to get a good grasp of the situation in western Asia without also considering what's happening in Central and Far East Asia.

I think it is crucial to examine What Certain Countries are trying to accomplish.
U.S, Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia


Let's Try to marginally understand U.S Policy First.

The U.S policy toward the region is similar (not at all the same; since the players and alignment is different.) to what it was during Iran-Iraq war. That is back then the U.S had the policy of dual containment against Iran and Iraq. the U.S appears to be pursuing a policy of trilateral containment of Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Today the U.S is more or less perusing the a similar strategy. Ensure Hydrocarbon supplies routes. Remain engaged with Arab countries to a degree to prevent Chinese influence finding a serious foothold there. But the United States is really is not interested for any country in the region to be strengthened to a degree where tactical superiority of Israel would become meaningless.

The U.S policy in the Indian subcontinent has been 24 years of gradual strengthening of ties with India in the hopes of containing China using India as a counter balance. The problem is U.S is it can not let relations with India to become too rosey too fast because doing so will completely push Pakistan into China's lap. That is not to mention pushing Bangladesh into China's lap.

The United States has recognized for about 8 years that it needs to realign its force strength form Europe and middle east and strengthen its position in the south china sea and pacific. This is all because of the recognition that China's growth needs to be managed. Countries like Vietnam, Australia, South Korea and to a degree Japan are weary of quick augmentation of Chinese Naval strength and have turned to the U.S for help. This because all these countries have their own political issues with each other internal political instability. For instance Australia is to small and it needs to align itself with Japanese policy. Japan is an aging country that does not find it feasible to grow its Naval Capacity too fast, Vietnam lacks technology. Korea has historical issues with Japan.

Back to U.S Mideast policy. Because of the rise of China the United States can not to alienate or to completely disengage form its historical allies (Turkey, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt) in the Middle East. The U.S is interested to reduce it's EuroAsian footprint but since Europeans are not willing to pick up the slack the U.S has to do so in a very gradual manner as not to upset the balance too fast.

U.S view of ISIS:
Well it is complicated. A Crisis in geo-political terms is not always a bad occurrence as long it can be managed and made sure that it says contained. This was not going to bad for the U.S until ISIS got close to Baghdad and executed U.S person and thus created a public relations crisis and made it impossible for the U.S not to engage.

I am not convinced that it is to the interest of the United States to completely destroy ISIS. After all it is necessary to have some balance of power among all players in the region.

The U.S has sought to lessen its hostility with Tehran to a level of rhetoric-only so it can manage that relationship with Iran using a reduce force strength.

The U.S will continue to push Europe for integration of Turkey to lessen it's worries about possible Chinese Turkish ties in the future. And also have the European project contain Turkey's ambitions in Mediterranean that could cause instability.


------
Let's Try to understand Russian Policy

Russia is in a terrible situation aside from its abundance of Natural Resources.
Russia is country has terrible demographics which does not make the future of its economy too bright.
Russia historically feels vulnerable from the west because there are no natural obstacles blocking
a drive of German, Polish, French, American armies all the way to Moscow.
Nato has expanded to east despite the promise that the George H.W Bush made to Russia back in 1989.
Russian Psyche has been damaged by it because they have been completely unable to prevent a Nato Expansion.

Russia is also very vulnerable from the east. Let's not forget that a 100 years ago Russia lost a decisive war to japan.
Japan remains a strong force in the east.

But Russia's most important geopolitical challenge is with China. Russia is essentially occupying part of historical
chinese land. Russia has very few people living in its eastern regions and this historically means it can not align
itself with China but it can not antagonize it either.

The Russian policy toward its soviet Caucasus is complicated as well.
Russia Cannot afford to let Iran, Turkey, U.S and China to gain a permanent foothold in the Caucasus (Azarbayejan, Armenia, Turkamnistan, Khazistan, Tajikestan ..)
Because Russia sees these states as its strategic buffer zone against these externals forces.

This all means that Russia has no capability to play any major part in the middle east.
All Russia can hope for is occasion delivery of some arms to Asad and that is just to ensure
that it has a pawn in future to bargain with U.S and Turkey over something at a later point.

----
China Policy
Chinese policy makers historically have been very patient. China has been developing ties with Soviet Cacuses to
use their natural resources in its economic growth.
China has further developed very strong relations with Pakistan and China to "protect them" against growth of Indian influence.
China sees real potential for long term cooperation with Iraq if the south of that coutnry remains stable.
But Chinese are very risk averse and are unlikely to make a real commitment to Iraqi oil until the country
has fully stabilized.

China also seeks to have neutral relations with Iran. China does not want to see Iran too weak or too strong.
The Chinese recognize that Iran has a long interest to strengthen its ties with India so it can not cozy up too much with Iran.
But the Chinese also recognize that if Iran is weakened too much by Sanctions or Military Attack this might mean
that Americans can exert a greater control in the region. It is complicated balance for china.

But China's greatest priority is to create buffer zones against the strong U.S Navy in south China sea.
China recognizes that all its major trade routes run through southern China Sea. It is a Chinese priority
to become undisputed Hegemon in south china sea and render U.S force projection via its navy obsolete.
This will remain a major challenge for the Chinese.

China remains quite "potentially" unstable internally and thus chinese politicians
are quite often focused on how to mange economic growth so it can avoid
a political crisis that spirals out of control.

That's why China will probably not take any major actions in the Mideast.
Because it is does not see a power that it can completely align its interests with yet.
China has interests to develop ties with Iraq; But the Chinese have proven that they take their time.
They do not take major gambles in foreign policy matters.
China will more than likely occasionally to some action the U.S is taking as part of tit for tat diplomatic
war of words.
---------
Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has great theoretical assets to play with but somehow it always find itself on the defensive.
Saudi policy has been to buy very expensive advanced weaponry using windfall of petro dollars.
They have trained a sizable force in Airforce and land forces and have strong internally security
force. Saudi leadership remains highly conservative and skeptical of the ability of its force
to perform any forward oriented operations. Saudi Naval Presence in Persian Gulf and the Red Sea remains
inadequate for any kind of regional force projection.

Saudi Arabia Number one priority is
political stability in Homeland (Homeland Plus Yemen), Number 2 Priority is political stability in Kuwait,Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan.
Number 3 Priority is relative stability in Egypt and Iraq.


Saudi Arabia has good demographics (a very young country).
Nearly 1/4 - 1/3 of Saudi population consists of foreigners that live and work there.
some of these folks might be American or European, Arabs from Jordan and Egypt.
but mostly eastern Asians who do the difficult work in the country.

Saudi Arabia can and should and is developing its workforce to be able to defend its interests in the region.
The Saudi leadership is basically a constant 3000 Number of princes that keep getting shuffled
from one ministry to another or form regional governorship to another.

because Saudi leadership circle is so small; It is number one objective is survival of its regime at all times.
So Even Though Saudi regional aspirations require it to develop its human capital. It is local political stability
hampers from doing so too fast.

So Saudi Establishment is afraid of massive legions of Saudis Educated classes that might suddenly feel that there is a better way
to run the country than the way the Saudi regime has been. and Thus Saudi security posture is always oriented internally.

but Saudi Arabia still seas it as its innate right to control the destiny of Arab world as" the leader of Arab world."

Over the past 30 years Saudi Arabia has developed a technique to export its extremists to other countries.
This serves two purposes, It ensures better domestic political stability by getting rid of potentially dangerous militants.

It also creates this fight by proxy capability for the Saudis. The Saudis (along with other Arab countries) largely
financed Taliban control of Afghanistan to have a pawn to control against Iran and Soviets.

Saudi Arabia has also financed the nuclear and other military expenditures of Pakistan essentially
as an protective force in case Iran decides to threaten the Saudi position too much. Yet the Saudis are quite afriad of this
strategy because they are afraid when push comes to shove Pakistan will reserve those capabilities for later use against India.
Pakistan though needs the financing and thus has continued to allow extremist elements to create instability in the east of Iran.
It is true Pakistan does not have complete control of its Balluchestan province; But the amount autonomy and number of problems
they cause for Iran is definitely with explicit blessing of Pakistan by design of Saudi Arabia.

--
Iran's Policy:

Since the end of Iran-Iraq war because Iran lacks modern weaponry, it has embraced asymmetric warfare.
Iran has essentially developed enough capability in the Persian gulf to have the ability inflict real painful tactical
damage on the forces of the regional countries.

In addition, Iran has developed/obtained some missiles to increase its deterrence capability against the United States and other external players.

Basically Iran has multi-prong approach to the region.
Create instability against political establishment in places where it can hurt
the interests of its regional advisories. (namely Azarbayejan, Yemen, Bahrain)

Maintain para-military contacts with players in the region that can cause harm to its foes.
For instance Iran fiances people in Yemen (to some degree in Bahrain), Lebenon, Iraqi Kurds, Turkish Kurds.

Iran seeks to align its security with that of India to the east yet so far United States, Pakistan and Saudis have blocked that move.

for the medium term Iran has the major issue that it can not afford to fully align itself with any world power.

Because Iran needs to expand energy ties with India;
It is will not be able to develop strategic relationship with China.
It has historical frienemy relationship with Russia over influence in Cacusus.
The U.S does not fully trust the intentions of Iranian regime vis-a-vis Israel.

Iran basically pursues No Major direct confrontation policy with Turkey.

Iran sees value in crisis that has developed in Iraq.
Because in Iraq; Iran was starting to lose sway with Iraq Kurds
and this crisis has given the two sides the chance to rebuild those ties.

As for Shites; Iran can use the ISIS crisis to further ensure Iraqi political Shite establishment dependence on Iran.
This crisis possibly allows Iran to further solidify its influence from south of Iraq all the way to Baghdad.

Iran will likely continue to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and the U.S by creating instability in Bahrain, Yemen
to ultimately use them in a grand bargain.

Iran however is overextended at the moment. It will need an easing of tensions with the U.S over the nucluar issue.

--- Turkish---
The Current Turksih administration for all intensive purposes sees itself as the second republic.
It basically has defined a new phase in Turkish politics were the political establishment is far more powerfull
than the military establishment.

But when it comes to Foreign policy Turkey has entered its third policy phase over the last 12 years

First 4 years policy Phase was engagement with Europe and ultimate membership in European Union.

The Next 5 year phase policy phase No Problems neighbors policy.

The Last Three years Turkey has entered the policy period where it has managed problems with virtually its neighbors.

One can argue that Erodgan administration has been pretty shrewd in all its policy postures except when it comes to Syria.

The Syrian Regime enjoyed a cordial relationship Turkey. But Erdogan overplayed his hand by deciding that he likes
to install a regime in Syria that aligns itself fully with Turkey as opposed to partially with Iran, partially with Arabs, Partially with U.S and partially with Russia.

Turkey is essentially stuck in a conundrum. It will politically suicidal to reverse its policy course on Syria by allowing Asad to remain in power.
But Turkey is not prepared like Iran to commit resources to its quest in Syria. The Erdogan Administration partially enjoys
its legitimacy because of good economic track records. Any full engaged conflict to actually get rid of Bashar Asad could have adverse
effects on the very economy that has enabled Erdogan to win elections 12 years in a row.
Erdogan Administration also has the issue that the opposition is not fully on board with its policy course on Syria.

While Saudi and Qataris have temporarily forgotten about replacing the Asad regime using the very forces they financed.
Erdogan Administration can not do the same. Because if the ISIS forces lose and lose absolute in Syria
because of the weakness of Syrian Central regime for all practical matters
the kurdish regions of Syria will control much greater autonomy
and this will hamper Turkey's ability to coerce Its own kurdish militant opposition
into amicable surrender

---- conclusion ----
The problems of the region will not really be solved as long all parties
partially have an interest for this flame to burn.

The real issue in the case of ISIS is that the crisis became too big too fast for all players to reap benefits from it.

It seems like there needs to quadrilateral agreement among U.S, Iran, Turkey and Saudis. (although others will try to throw in a wrench as well)

Iran will have to fold its hand Yemen and Bahrain and in exchange receive Saudi
fold in Syria and Lebenon. They will essentially have to de-escalate tensions in Iraq.

the U.S needs Iran to not pursue break out nuclear capability and in exchange the U.S can ease tensions
and recognize Iran's right to be a player in Iraq and Syria.

Iran and Turkey need to maintain Status Quo with regards to Armenia and Azarbayejan and Nakhchivan.
They will need to come to terms with future of Syria regime which allows Iran to use Syria as corridor to Lebenon.

They will need to create and understanding on what greater autonomy of kurdish region in Iraq needs
for Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara.


The real issue here is there are divergent interest among major players.
these players have invested too much to fold their hand on this issue.

in the long run the U.S proably manages to achieve most of its objectives.
Control Turkish Abmitions.

curtail Iran's unfettered access to Lebenon.

Security guarantees for the Saudi Regime. creation of an equilibrium
among the three players in the region so the can change its force posture
toward Asia pacific.
 

ChaharMahal

Elite Member
Oct 18, 2002
16,563
261
I wonder for how long the U.S will keep on supplying "moderate" forces in Syria.
Their numbers are dwindling and they are not very good fighters.
It is time for America, Bashar and Turkey to make a deal that let's everybody save face.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/world/2014/11/141104_l26_syria_us_allies_defeat

شش هفته از آغاز حملات هوایی آمریکا و متحدانش به مواضع شبه***نظامیان گروه موسوم به دولت اسلامی (داعش) و گروه***های جهادی دیگر در سوریه می***گذرد. اما آن طور که فراس کیلانی، خبرنگار بی***بی***سی عربی گزارش می***دهد تحولات اخیر در این کشور جنگ***زده نشان می***دهد مامورریت آمریکا با موانع زیادی روبه***رو است.

یکی از فرماندهان گروه***های میانه***روی سوری که نیروهایش در نبرد با جبهه نصرت شکست خورده***اند، در تماس تلفنی با بی***بی***سی با ناامیدی می***گوید: "ما در برابر چشمان تمام دنیا از جمله دوستانمان در آمریکا در حال نابود شدن هستیم."

جبهه نصرت که از گروه***های مرتبط با القاعده است، در یک هفته گذشته با شکست "جبهه انقلابی سوریه" (SFR) و "جنبش حزم"، دو گروه از قوی***ترین گروه***های مسلح مورد حمایت آمریکا در استان ادلب به پیروزی***های بزرگی دست یافته است.

جمال معروف فرمانده جبهه انقلابی سوریه در ویدیویی که از او در یوتیوب منتشر شده می***گوید دستور داده نیروهایش برای "پیشگیری از خونریزی*** و تلفات بیشتر" از پایگاه***هایشان در "دیر سنبل" عقب***نشینی کنند.

با وجود این، هواداران جبهه نصرت در شبکه***های اجتماعی از اسیر شدن ده***ها نفر از نیروهای تحت امر جمال معروف و همین طور جدا شدن تعداد دیگری از آنها خبر داده و گفته***اند که جبهه نصرت تمام شهرها و روستاهای منطقه جبل الزاویه در ادلب را تسخیر کرده***اند.

آقای معروف، ابومحمد جولانی، رهبر جبهه نصرت را متهم به "اشغال" مناطقی می***کند که جبهه انقلابی سوریه سه سال پیش از دولت گرفته بود.

آمریکا و متحدانش در اولین روز از حملات هوایی علیه گروه***های اسلامگرای سوریه، پایگاه***های جبهه نصرت در این منطقه را بمباران کردند. اما بعد از آن دیگر گزارشی از حمله هوایی به مواضع این جبهه منتشر نشد.

نکته قابل توجه این است که حملات آمریکا در سوریه به ویژه برای کمک به کردها در کوبانی، همچنان ادامه دارد اما آمریکا دیگر تلاشی برای حمایت از مواضع جبهه انقلابی سوریه نمی***کند.

جبهه نصرت، با کمک گروه***های جهادی کوچک***تر توانسته بخش بزرگی از شهرها و روستاهای جنوب، غرب و شرق شهر ادلب را که خود در کنترل حکومت سوریه است، تسخیر کند.
'پایانی دردناک'

منابعی از داخل سوریه در گفت***وگو با بی***بی***سی تایید کرده***اند که جبهه نصرت چند روز پیش موفق شده جنبش حزم را هم شکست دهد و سلاح***های آنها از جمله موشک***های ضدتانک را که از آمریکا گرفته بودند در اختیار بگیرد.

جنبش حزم اخیرا تلاش کرد به جمال معروف و نیروهایش در برابر حملات جبهه نصرت کمک کند، اما دخالت رهبران دیگر گروه***ها که از طرف جبهه نصرت تحت فشار بودند، باعث توقف این کمک***ها شد.

یکی از کسانی که از این نیروها جدا شده به بی***بی***سی گفت: "پایان ماجرا دردناک بود."

عبدالله عوده، رهبر جنبش حزم همراه صدها نفر از نیروهایش شنبه بعد از ظهر در جنگلی در نزدیکی روستای خان سبل موضع گرفته بودند.

به گفته عضو جداشده از این نیروها، آنها انتظار هر چیزی را داشتند غیر از آن چه چند ساعت بعد برایشان رخ داد.

"وقتی فهمیدند جبهه نصرت آنها را محاصره کرده اوضاع کاملا به هم ریخت... عوده تمام تلاشش را کرد که نیروهایش را متقاعد کند که از پایگاهشان دفاع کنند، اما صدها نفر از آنها جدا شدند و به نصرت پیوستند یا فرار کردند. تا شب او خود مجبور شد با کاروانی از تنها پنجاه نفر از نیروهایش پایگاهشان را ترک کند و به سوی حلب برود."

چند ساعت بعد عوده، معاونش عبدالله حمصی را برای مذاکره و راضی کردن جبهه نصرت به ترک پایگاهشان پیش آنها فرستاد، اما آنها حمصی را دستگیر کردند و فردای آن روز به دادگاه شریعت سپردند.

جبهه نصرت توانست ده***ها تانک و خودروی زرهی و همین طور مقدار زیادی مهمات از پایگاه جنبش حزم در خان سبل به دست بیاورد که بیشتر آنها را آمریکا برای حزم فرستاده بود.

عضو جداشده از حزم می***گوید: "حالا رهبر جنبش به تمام گروه***های مسلح منطقه هشدار داده که نیروهایش را از حلب بیرون می***برد تا به حمله جبهه نصرت پاسخ دهد." اتفاقی که می***تواند برای نیروهای حکومتی سوریه این فرصت را فراهم کند که دوباره شهر را در اختیار بگیرند.
نقطه جوش

تنش در منطقه میان نیروهای جبهه نصرت و دیگر گروه***های جهادی از یک سو و گروه***های "میانه***روتر" از سوی دیگر از چند ماه پیش به تدریج تشدید شد.

یکی از فرماندهان جنبش حزم که خواست نامش فاش نشود به بی***بی***سی گفت: "جبهه نصرت همان ۲۳ سپتامبر و بلافاصله بعد از این که هدف حمله هوایی آمریکا قرار گرفت، تصمیم گرفت به ما حمله کند... جبهه نصرت ما را به درز اطلاعات امنیتی درباره پایگاه***ها و تحرکاتشان متهم می***کرد."

با وجود ارتباط نزدیک جنبش حزم با آمریکایی***ها، این جنبش در بیانیه***ای حمله به جبهه نصرت را محکوم کرد.

این فرمانده جنبش حزم به بی***بی***سی گفت: "تنها تاثیر این بیانیه شکراب شدن رابطه ما با آمریکایی***ها بود... ما از یک طرف نتوانستیم جبهه نصرت را قانع کنیم که جاسوسی آنها را برای آمریکایی***ها نمی***کردیم و از طرف دیگر کمک و حمایت آمریکا را هم از دست دادیم."

او هنوز نمی***توانند تصمیم آمریکا برای آغاز حملات هوایی بدون هماهنگی با متحدانش در جبهه زمینی را درک کند.

اما واکنش متفاوت از گروه***های مسلح دیگر در قبال حملات آمریکا هم تفاوت چندانی به حالشان نداشت.

جمال معروف، فرمانده جبهه انقلابی سوریه که پیش از حملات آمریکا، علیه داعش اعلام جنگ کرده بود، در قبال حمله به جبهه نصرت سکوت کرد که به معنای پذیرش این اقدام از سوی او تعبیر شد.

او یکی از مهم***ترین متحدان استراتژیک آمریکا بود اما تحولات اخیر نشان داد که این موضوع کمکی به او و بقای جبهه انقلابی سوریه نکرد.

آقای معروف جبهه نصرت را متهم کرد که با داعش در حملاتش همکاری می***کند، هر چند که این دو گروه خود با هم درگیر بودند.

گروه دیده***بان حقوق بشر سوریه مستقر در بریتانیا هم می***گوید پیکارجویانی از داعش در حمله جبهه نصرت به پایگاه***های جبهه انقلابی سوریه و جنبش حزم حضور داشته***اند.

گذشته از این که آنها همکاری می***کردند یا نه، نقشه جنگی سوریه نشان می***دهد که به جز مناطقی که در اختیار حکومت سوریه است، بیشتر مناطق کشور در اختیار گروه***های تندروی جهادی است.

اکنون شکست جبهه انقلابی سوریه و جنبش حزم کار را برای نیروهای ائتلاف برای پیدا کردن گروه***های مسلح میانه***رو و آموزش آنها برای نبرد با گروه***های تندرو بسیار دشوار خواهد کرد.
 

Flint

Legionnaire
Jan 28, 2006
7,016
0
United States
When you add everything up, you cant ignore the fact that ISIS wouldnt even touch Lebanon if it wasnt for the hezbollah support for Syria. Any Lebanese who really things he has to cooperate with those hezbollah terrorists to fight ISIS, is short sighted.
The good General wants to pretend all is calm. This just came out.

Leader of Syria Qaeda wing threatens strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The leader of Syria's al Qaeda rebel wing threatened attacks against the Shi'ite Muslim militant movement Hezbollah in Lebanon in coming days that he said would make it regret fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.



I told him last year Hezbollah has dug its own grave by getting involved in Syria. They don't recognize that they are a tiny island in a sea of Sunnis. There is no where to run. Their support for Assad was not for Assad. They wanted to keep their lines to Iran open. Well, Assad is still there but the roads are closed and to their south sits Israel. They are trapped and bleeding. Iran's attempt to send arms to Lebanon army is a fig leaf to send arms to Hezbollah through the air and sea ports. Imagine that. Hezbollah needs an airlift now.
 
May 9, 2004
15,168
179
The good General wants to pretend all is calm. This just came out.

Leader of Syria Qaeda wing threatens strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The leader of Syria's al Qaeda rebel wing threatened attacks against the Shi'ite Muslim militant movement Hezbollah in Lebanon in coming days that he said would make it regret fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.



I told him last year Hezbollah has dug its own grave by getting involved in Syria. They don't recognize that they are a tiny island in a sea of Sunnis. There is no where to run. Their support for Assad was not for Assad. They wanted to keep their lines to Iran open. Well, Assad is still there but the roads are closed and to their south sits Israel. They are trapped and bleeding. Iran's attempt to send arms to Lebanon army is a fig leaf to send arms to Hezbollah through the air and sea ports. Imagine that. Hezbollah needs an airlift now.
جناب فلینت
این خبر جدیدی نیست
جولانی رهبر گروه النصره الان دو سال است که این حرف را تکرار میکند
که معرکه را به ضاحیه جنوبی مقر حزب الله می کشانیم
و در طول مدت این دوسال بجز دو سه بار بمب گذاری کار دیگری نتوانستند انجام بدهند که در ماهای اخیر این بمب گذاری ها را هم نتوانستند انجام دهند
و معرکه نه تنها به ضاحیه جنوبی کشیده نشد
بلکه گروهای طرفدار انها یکی یکی از بین رفتند و فرماندهان انها یا دستگیر یا کشته شدند
مانند احمد الاسیر و نضال السویدان و ماجد الماجد
و در چند جاهم النصره سعی کرد حتی بخاطر تبلیغ رسانه های طرفدار هم که شده به مواقع حزب در مرز البنان سوریه حمله کند
که بجز تلفات شکست نصیبی نداشتند
که در اخرین انها در بریتال بود که دها نفرکشته دادند و عقب نشینی کردند
همین جولانی وعده داده که معرکه را به امریکا و اروپا می کشاند
که حرف گند تر از دهانش است
و در اروپا و امریکا هم بجز با چاقو زدن این و ان کار دیگری از دست انها بر نمی اید
الان نگاه کن حزب الله در لبنان در هیچ درگیری شرکت نمی کند
این ارتش لبنان است که با این تروریست ها در گیر می شود
و حتی گروه 14 اذار که ضد حزب الله است و گفته میشد از النصره طرفداری میکند هفته پیش تروریست های النصره را محکوم کرد
و دست در دست ارتش گذاشت
همین گروه دشمن سرسخت و شاید تنها دشمن حزب الله در لبنان است که می بینیم در این رابطه به حزب الله نزدیک شده
و دیشب حسن نصرالله این کار را تحسین کرد
یعنی این النصره در لبنان بسیار بسیار منبوذ شده تا جایی که طرفداران چند سال پیش ان دشمن او شده اند
الان جولانی همان حرفهای قبل از شکست القصیر را تکرار میکند که می گفت اگر حزب الله در معرکه القصیر دخالت کند ضاحیه جنوبی را به اتش می کشیم و حزب الله را در لبنان از بین می بریم
و این چرت و پرت ها این حرفها شاید قبلا کسی باور میکرد .لی الان حتی جنبه تبلیغاتی خود را هم از دست داده
الان نزدیک به دو سه هزار نفر از اینها در کوهای القلمون نزدیک به مرز لبنان در سوریه زندگی میکنند و زمستان سرد باعث خواهد شد که برای زنده ماندن حداقل تلاشی بکنند
و ان این است که سعی کنند به دهکدهای مرزی لبنان هجوم بیاورند و جا پایی در این زمستان سردی که در پیش است پیدا کنند
به همین خاطر جولانی دوباره این را تکرار کرده و دوباره در هر حمله صدها کشته خواهند داد
مجبور هم به حمله هستند
چون همانطور که گفتم اگر حزب یا ارتش سوریه انها را از بین نبرد سرمای زمستان انها را از بین می برد
اگر شما به اخبار سالهای 2012 و 2013 توجه میکردید می دیدید که نه تنها النصره و جیش الحر بلکه سیاسیونی مانند عبدالحلیم خدام
می گفت که تا چند ماه دیگر معرکه به ضاحیه جنوبی مقر حزب الله کشیده خواهد شد
که این نداشت درک صحیح از قدرت حزب و ضعف النصره و جیش الحر داشت
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
توف به هرچی*** دین و مذهبو قوم و ملیت و وطن و سیاستو، ایده لوژی..........

[video=youtube_share;mgwO6oni-wY]http://youtu.be/mgwO6oni-wY[/video]